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Measuring Market Responses to Error-Ridden Government Announcements

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  • Falk, Barry L.
  • Orazem, Peter

Abstract

This article analyzes how asset prices respond to government announcements that are subject to error. In cases where government forecast errors are correlated with available market information, market agents will not respond to the government's preliminary announcements per se. Instead, they will respond to the new information on the final value that is conveyed by the government announcement. The authors show that such systematic government errors can cause biases in deriving the structural response of asset prices to government announcements. They illustrate the problem and a proposed solution using USDA soybean forecasts and the Federal Reserve's weekly money supply announcement as examples.

Suggested Citation

  • Falk, Barry L. & Orazem, Peter, 1989. "Measuring Market Responses to Error-Ridden Government Announcements," Staff General Research Papers Archive 11096, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:isu:genres:11096
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    Cited by:

    1. Berna Karali & Scott H. Irwin & Olga Isengildina‐Massa, 2020. "Supply Fundamentals and Grain Futures Price Movements," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 102(2), pages 548-568, March.
    2. Yu, Fenchin, 1990. "Empirical tests of the rationality of USDA crop forecasts," ISU General Staff Papers 1990010108000018155, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    3. Good, Darrel L. & Irwin, Scott H., 2006. "Understanding USDA Corn and Soybean Production Forecasts: Methods, Performance and Market Impacts over 1970 - 2005," AgMAS Project Research Reports 37514, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics.
    4. Frank, Julieta & Garcia, Philip & Irwin, Scott H., 2008. "To What Surprises Do Hog Futures Markets Respond?," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(1), pages 73-87, April.
    5. Gilbert, Thomas, 2011. "Information aggregation around macroeconomic announcements: Revisions matter," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(1), pages 114-131, July.
    6. Olga Isengildina-Massa & Berna Karali & Scott H Irwin, 2017. "Do Markets Correct for Smoothing in USDA Crop Production Forecasts? Evidence from Private Analysts and Futures Prices," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 39(4), pages 559-583.
    7. Aulerich, Nicole M. & Irwin, Scott H. & Nelson, Carl H., 2007. "The Impact of Measurement Error on Estimates of the Price Reaction to USDA Crop Reports," 2007 Conference, April 16-17, 2007, Chicago, Illinois 37579, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    8. Isengildina-Massa, Olga & MacDonald, Stephen & Xie, Ran, 2012. "A Comprehensive Evaluation of USDA Cotton Forecasts," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 37(1), pages 1-16, April.
    9. repec:ags:jrapmc:122314 is not listed on IDEAS

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