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Terms-of-Trade Shocks Are Not All Alike

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  • Federico Di Pace
  • Luciana Juvenal
  • Ivan Petrella

Abstract

Terms of trade are an inaccurate empirical proxy for how fluctuations in international prices affect the economy. To capture the relevance of terms-of-trade fluctuations for the domestic business cycle, the role of export and import prices needs to be analyzed separately. Using a sample of developing economies, we find that the economy's response to a positive export price shock does not mirror the response to a negative import price shock.

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  • Federico Di Pace & Luciana Juvenal & Ivan Petrella, 2025. "Terms-of-Trade Shocks Are Not All Alike," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 17(2), pages 24-64, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejmac:v:17:y:2025:i:2:p:24-64
    DOI: 10.1257/mac.20220035
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    2. Dainauskas, Justas, 2023. "Time-varying exchange rate pass-through into terms of trade," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 120000, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    3. Juvenal, Luciana & Petrella, Ivan, 2024. "Unveiling the dance of commodity prices and the global financial cycle," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    4. Arroyo Marioli, Francisco & Fatas, Antonio & Vasishtha, Garima, 2024. "Fiscal policy volatility and growth in emerging markets and developing economies," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 758-777.
    5. Dainauskas, Justas, 2023. "Time-varying exchange rate pass-through into terms of trade," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    6. Jasmien De Winne & Gert Peersman, 2021. "The adverse consequences of global harvest and weather disruptions on economic activity," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(8), pages 665-672, August.
    7. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2022. "Effect of structural economic vulnerability on the participation in international trade," EconStor Preprints 262004, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    8. Elguellab, Ali & Ezzahid, Elhadj, 2023. "Dissecting the Moroccan business cycle: A trade-based identification of agricultural supply shocks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    9. Lubomír Civín & Luboš Smutka, 2020. "Vulnerability of European Union Economies in Agro Trade," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-33, June.
    10. Baffes, John & Kabundi, Alain, 2023. "Commodity price shocks: Order within chaos?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    11. Naraidoo, Ruthira & Paez-Farrell, Juan, 2023. "Commodity price shocks, labour market dynamics and monetary policy in small open economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    12. Manopimoke, Pym & Nookhwun, Nuwat & Pattararangrong, Jettawat, 2024. "Exchange rate in emerging markets: Shock absorber or source of shock?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
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    15. Yépez, Carlos & Dzikpe, Francis, 2022. "Accounting for real exchange rates in emerging economies: The role of commodity prices," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 476-492.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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