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Financial market participation and the developing country business cycle

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  • Özbilgin, H. Murat

Abstract

I explore the implications of limited participation in financial markets on a standard small open economy business cycle model. Despite its parsimony, the limited participation model developed in this paper improves over the standard model in terms of explaining two important features of business cycle facts of developing countries: high volatility of consumption, and high negative correlation between the trade balance and output. Limited participation model is then used to inspect the effects of financial development and integration on macroeconomic volatility. Under a standard calibration, limited participation model leads to the conclusion that financial development and integration are associated with higher investment and output volatility. Effect of more participation on consumption volatility is dependent on the specification of the risk premium function.

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  • Özbilgin, H. Murat, 2010. "Financial market participation and the developing country business cycle," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(2), pages 125-137, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:92:y:2010:i:2:p:125-137
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    4. H. Murat Ozbilgin, 2010. "Welfare Gains from Disinflation in an Economy With Currency Substitution (Para Ikamesinin Oldugu Bir Ekonomide Enflasyonun Dusurulmesinden Kaynaklanan Refah Kazanimlari)," Working Papers 1009, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
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    8. Rodolfo Cermeño & María José Roa García & Claudio González-Vega, 2016. "Financial Development and the Volatility of Growth: Time Series Evidence for Mexico and United States," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA, vol. 0(2), pages 195-232, july-dece.
    9. Hüseyin Taştan & Bekir Aşık, 2014. "A Bayesian Estimation of Real Business-Cycle Models for the Turkish Economy," Ekonomi-tek - International Economics Journal, Turkish Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 27-50, May.
    10. Özbilgin, Murat H., 2012. "Currency substitution, inflation, and welfare," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 358-369.
    11. Gareth Liu-Evans & Shalini Mitra, 2020. "Formal sector enforcement and welfare," Working Papers 202030, University of Liverpool, Department of Economics.
    12. Rodolfo Cermeño & María Roa García & Claudio González-Vega, 2012. "Financial Development and Volatility of Growth: Time Series Evidence for Mexico and USA," DEGIT Conference Papers c017_035, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
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    14. Sangyup Choi & Myungkyu Shim, 2018. "Labor Market Dynamics in Developing Economies: the Role of Subsistence Consumption," Working papers 2018rwp-127, Yonsei University, Yonsei Economics Research Institute.
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