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Spillovers among sovereign debt markets: Identification through absolute magnitude restrictions

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  • Roberto A. De Santis
  • Srečko Zimic

Abstract

This paper studies spillovers among US and European sovereign yields. We employ absolute magnitude restrictions on the impact matrix to identify the countries that were the main sources of spillovers. Despite the large size of shocks from euro area stressed countries, connectedness among sovereign yields declined between 2008 and 2012 due to financial fragmentation, particularly between countries with more divergent business and fiscal cycles. We show that none of the sovereign yields were insulated from foreign shocks and that shocks to the Greek bond market in 2010 explained 20–30% of the variance of sovereign yields in stressed countries, while in 2011–2012 Italy (not Spain) was the source of systemic risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Roberto A. De Santis & Srečko Zimic, 2018. "Spillovers among sovereign debt markets: Identification through absolute magnitude restrictions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(5), pages 727-747, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:japmet:v:33:y:2018:i:5:p:727-747
    DOI: 10.1002/jae.2627
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    Cited by:

    1. Timo Bettendorf & Reinhold Heinlein, 2023. "Connectedness between G10 currencies: Searching for the causal structure," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(4), pages 3938-3959, October.
    2. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Gabauer, David & Gupta, Rangan, 2019. "Greek economic policy uncertainty: Does it matter for Europe? Evidence from a dynamic connectedness decomposition approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 535(C).
    3. Barra, Cristian & Ruggiero, Nazzareno, 2021. "Do microeconomic and macroeconomic factors influence Italian bank credit risk in different local markets? Evidence from cooperative and non-cooperative banks," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    4. Christiane Baumeister & James D. Hamilton, 2020. "Advances in Using Vector Autoregressions to Estimate Structural Magnitudes," NBER Working Papers 27014, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Luciana Juvenal, 2020. "Terms-of-Trade Shocks are Not all Alike," IMF Working Papers 2020/280, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Noureddine Benlagha & Wael Hemrit, 2022. "Does economic policy uncertainty matter to explain connectedness within the international sovereign bond yields?," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 46(1), pages 1-21, January.
    7. Boeckelmann Lukas & Stalla-Bourdillon Arthur, 2021. "Structural Estimation of Time-Varying Spillovers: An Application to International Credit Risk Transmission," Working papers 798, Banque de France.
    8. De Santis, Roberto A. & Zimic, Srečko, 2019. "Interest rates and foreign spillovers," Working Paper Series 2221, European Central Bank.
    9. Clancy, Daragh & Gabriele, Carmine & Žigraiová, Diana, 2022. "Sovereign bond market spillovers from crisis-time developments in Greece," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    10. Buse, Rebekka & Schienle, Melanie & Urban, Jörg, 2022. "Assessing the impact of policy and regulation interventions in European sovereign credit risk networks: What worked best?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    11. Rünstler, Gerhard & Bräuer, Leonie, 2020. "Monetary policy transmission over the leverage cycle: evidence for the euro area," Working Paper Series 2421, European Central Bank.
    12. Baumeister, Christiane & Hamilton, James, 2020. "Advances in Structural Vector Autoregressions with Imperfect Identifying Information," CEPR Discussion Papers 14603, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Nikolaos Antonakakis & David Gabauer & Rangan Gupta, 2018. "Greek Economic Policy Uncertainty: Does it Matter for the European Union?," Working Papers 201840, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    14. Julio Gálvez, 2021. "Measuring interconnectedness across institutions and sectors," Revista de Estabilidad Financiera, Banco de España, issue Otoño.
    15. Borri, Nicola, 2019. "Redenomination-risk spillovers in the Eurozone," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 173-178.
    16. Dragomirescu-Gaina, Catalin, 2021. "Facing an unfortunate trade-off: policy responses, lessons and spill-overs during the COVID-19 pandemic," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
    17. Bacchiocchi, Emanuele & Dragomirescu-Gaina, Catalin, 2024. "Uncertainty spill-overs: When policy and financial realms overlap," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    18. Cipollini, Andrea & Mikaliunaite, Ieva, 2020. "Macro-uncertainty and financial stress spillovers in the Eurozone," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 546-558.
    19. Buse, Rebekka & Schienle, Melanie & Urban, Jörg, 2019. "Effectiveness of policy and regulation in European sovereign credit risk markets: A network analysis," Working Paper Series in Economics 125, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Department of Economics and Management.
    20. Liu, Peipei & Huang, Wei-Qiang, 2022. "Modelling international sovereign risk information spillovers: A multilayer network approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    21. Neharika Sobti, 2018. "Domestic intermarket linkages: measuring dynamic return and volatility connectedness among Indian financial markets," DECISION: Official Journal of the Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, Springer;Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, vol. 45(4), pages 325-344, December.
    22. De Santis, Roberto A. & Zimic, Srečko, 2022. "Interest rates and foreign spillovers," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    23. Badics, Milan Csaba & Huszar, Zsuzsa R. & Kotro, Balazs B., 2023. "The impact of crisis periods and monetary decisions of the Fed and the ECB on the sovereign yield curve network," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).

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