IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/applec/v51y2019i20p2155-2171.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Optimal input trade policy under economic uncertainties in a small open economy

Author

Listed:
  • Zhongyuan Geng
  • Xuan Liu

Abstract

This article theoretically analyses optimal input trade policy under economic uncertainties in a small open economy. The benchmark model explains both key business cycle moments and asset prices of a representative emerging economy, and the corresponding deterministic version of the model finds no gain by deviating from the free input trade policy. The main findings are as follows: (1) it is optimal for the government to subsidize imported intermediate inputs in the benchmark model and (2) the result is robust to various shocks, various key structural parameters and various preference specifications.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhongyuan Geng & Xuan Liu, 2019. "Optimal input trade policy under economic uncertainties in a small open economy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(20), pages 2155-2171, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:51:y:2019:i:20:p:2155-2171
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2018.1540851
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00036846.2018.1540851
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/00036846.2018.1540851?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mendoza, Enrique G, 1995. "The Terms of Trade, the Real Exchange Rate, and Economic Fluctuations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(1), pages 101-137, February.
    2. Raddatz, Claudio, 2006. "Liquidity needs and vulnerability to financial underdevelopment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 677-722, June.
    3. McCallum, Bennett T & Nelson, Edward, 2000. "Monetary Policy for an Open Economy: An Alternative Framework with Optimizing Agents and Sticky Prices," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 16(4), pages 74-91, Winter.
    4. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2003. "Closing small open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 163-185, October.
    5. Weil, Philippe, 1989. "The equity premium puzzle and the risk-free rate puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 401-421, November.
    6. Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2005. "Sudden Stops and Output Drops," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(2), pages 381-387, May.
    7. Head, Keith & Ries, John, 1999. "Rationalization effects of tariff reductions," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 295-320, April.
    8. Javier Garcia-Cicco & Roberto Pancrazi & Martin Uribe, 2010. "Real Business Cycles in Emerging Countries?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(5), pages 2510-2531, December.
    9. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Jonathan A. Parker, 2001. "The Empirical Importance of Precautionary Saving," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 406-412, May.
    10. Kose, M. Ayhan & Prasad, Eswar S. & Terrones, Marco E., 2006. "How do trade and financial integration affect the relationship between growth and volatility?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 176-202, June.
    11. Christian Broda & Nuno Limão & David E. Weinstein, 2018. "Optimal Tariffs and Market Power: The Evidence," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Policy Externalities and International Trade Agreements, chapter 2, pages 13-46, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    12. Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist & Fabio M. Natalucci, 2007. "External Constraints on Monetary Policy and the Financial Accelerator," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2‐3), pages 295-330, March.
    13. Mark Aguiar & Gita Gopinath, 2007. "Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Cycle Is the Trend," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115(1), pages 69-102.
    14. Ramey, Garey & Ramey, Valerie A, 1995. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link between Volatility and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1138-1151, December.
    15. Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar & Xuan Liu & Philip Rothman, 2013. "Equity Returns and Business Cycles in Small Open Economies," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(6), pages 1117-1146, September.
    16. Uribe, Martin & Yue, Vivian Z., 2006. "Country spreads and emerging countries: Who drives whom?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 6-36, June.
    17. Spencer, Barbara J. & Jones, Ronald W., 1992. "Trade and protection in vertically related markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1-2), pages 31-55, February.
    18. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé & Martín Uribe, 2006. "Optimal Simple and Implementable Monetary and Fiscal Rules: Expanded Version," NBER Working Papers 12402, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Laeven, Luc & Levine, Ross, 2004. "Regulations, Market Structure, Institutions, and the Cost of Financial Intermediation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(3), pages 593-622, June.
    20. Andrew Atkeson & Christopher Phelan, 1994. "Reconsidering the Costs of Business Cycles with Incomplete Markets," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1994, Volume 9, pages 187-218, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Jonathan D. Ostry & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1992. "Private Saving and Terms of Trade Shocks: Evidence from Developing Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(3), pages 495-517, September.
    22. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R. & Lundblad, Christian, 2005. "Does financial liberalization spur growth?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 3-55, July.
    23. Neumeyer, Pablo A. & Perri, Fabrizio, 2005. "Business cycles in emerging economies: the role of interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 345-380, March.
    24. Dani Rodrik, 1998. "Why Do More Open Economies Have Bigger Governments?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(5), pages 997-1032, October.
    25. Alexander W. Hoffmaister & Jorge E. Roldós & Peter Wickham, 1998. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Sub-Saharan Africa," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 132-160, March.
    26. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393, Elsevier.
    27. Cagetti, Marco, 2003. "Wealth Accumulation over the Life Cycle and Precautionary Savings," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(3), pages 339-353, July.
    28. Mary Amiti & Jozef Konings, 2007. "Trade Liberalization, Intermediate Inputs, and Productivity: Evidence from Indonesia," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(5), pages 1611-1638, December.
    29. Christopher D. Carroll & Andrew A. Samwick, 1998. "How Important Is Precautionary Saving?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(3), pages 410-419, August.
    30. Julian di Giovanni & Andrei A. Levchenko, 2006. "Openness, Volatility and the Risk Content of Exports," 2006 Meeting Papers 86, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    31. Markusen, James R, 1989. "Trade in Producer Services and in Other Specialized Intermediate Inputs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 85-95, March.
    32. Adolfson, Malin, 2007. "Incomplete exchange rate pass-through and simple monetary policy rules," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 468-494, April.
    33. Cavallo, Eduardo A. & Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2008. "Does openness to trade make countries more vulnerable to sudden stops, or less? Using gravity to establish causality," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 1430-1452, December.
    34. Faia, Ester & Monacelli, Tommaso, 2007. "Optimal interest rate rules, asset prices, and credit frictions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(10), pages 3228-3254, October.
    35. Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg & Amit Kumar Khandelwal & Nina Pavcnik & Petia Topalova, 2010. "Imported Intermediate Inputs and Domestic Product Growth: Evidence from India," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 125(4), pages 1727-1767.
    36. Braggion, Fabio & Christiano, Lawrence J. & Roldos, Jorge, 2009. "Optimal monetary policy in a [`]sudden stop'," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 582-595, May.
    37. Robert J. Barro, 2009. "Rare Disasters, Asset Prices, and Welfare Costs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(1), pages 243-264, March.
    38. Huang, Kevin X.D. & Liu, Zheng, 2007. "Business cycles with staggered prices and international trade in intermediate inputs," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1271-1289, May.
    39. Kasahara, Hiroyuki & Rodrigue, Joel, 2008. "Does the use of imported intermediates increase productivity? Plant-level evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 106-118, August.
    40. Norman V. Loayza & Claudio Raddatz, 2007. "The Structural Determinants of External Vulnerability," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 21(3), pages 359-387, October.
    41. Leitemo, Kai & Soderstrom, Ulf, 2005. "Simple monetary policy rules and exchange rate uncertainty," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 481-507, April.
    42. Jermann, Urban J., 1998. "Asset pricing in production economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 257-275, April.
    43. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo, 2004. "On the empirics of Sudden Stops: the relevance of balance-sheet effects," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
    44. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2004. "Solving dynamic general equilibrium models using a second-order approximation to the policy function," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 755-775, January.
    45. Robert W. Staiger & Kyle Bagwell, 1999. "An Economic Theory of GATT," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 215-248, March.
    46. Richard E. Ericson & Xuan Liu, 2012. "Welfare effect of interest rate shocks and policy implications," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(22), pages 1899-1917, November.
    47. Jonathan D. Ostry & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1992. "Private Saving and Terms of Trade Shocks: Evidence from Developing Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(3), pages 495-517, September.
    48. Dani Rodrik, 1998. "Has Globalization Gone Too Far?," Challenge, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(2), pages 81-94, March.
    49. Hoff, Karla, 1994. "A reexamination of the neoclassical trade model under uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1-2), pages 1-27, February.
    50. Enrique G. Mandoza & Vivian Z. Yue, 2008. "A solution to the default risk-business cycle disconnect," International Finance Discussion Papers 924, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    51. Avinash K. Dixit & Gene M. Grossman, 1982. "Trade and Protection with Multistage Production," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 49(4), pages 583-594.
    52. Guillermo A. Calvo & Ernesto Talvi, 2005. "Sudden Stop, Financial Factors and Economic Collpase in Latin America: Learning from Argentina and Chile," NBER Working Papers 11153, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    53. Mendoza, Enrique G. & Uribe, Martin, 2000. "Devaluation risk and the business-cycle implications of exchange-rate management," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 239-296, December.
    54. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Huffman, Gregory W, 1988. "Investment, Capacity Utilization, and the Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 402-417, June.
    55. Mendoza, Enrique G, 1991. "Real Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 797-818, September.
    56. Ethier, Wilfred J, 1982. "National and International Returns to Scale in the Modern Theory of International Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(3), pages 389-405, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Liu, Xuan, 2007. "Trade Openness and the Cost of Sudden Stops: The Role of Financial Friction," MPRA Paper 18260, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 26 Oct 2009.
    2. Richard E. Ericson & Xuan Liu, 2012. "Welfare effect of interest rate shocks and policy implications," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(22), pages 1899-1917, November.
    3. Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar & Xuan Liu & Philip Rothman, 2013. "Equity Returns and Business Cycles in Small Open Economies," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(6), pages 1117-1146, September.
    4. Villca, Alfredo, 2022. "Commodity prices, bank balance sheets and macroprudential policies in small open economies," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 3(1).
    5. Yannick Kalantzis, 2015. "Financial Fragility in Small Open Economies: Firm Balance Sheets and the Sectoral Structure," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 82(3), pages 1194-1222.
    6. Ruy Lama, 2011. "Accounting for Output Drops in Latin America," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(2), pages 295-316, April.
    7. Nan Li, 2011. "Cyclical Wage Movements in Emerging Markets Compared to Developed Economies: the Role of Interest Rates," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(4), pages 686-704, October.
    8. Drechsel, Thomas & Tenreyro, Silvana, 2018. "Commodity booms and busts in emerging economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 200-218.
    9. Kodama, Masahiro, 2006. "Business Cycles of Non-mono-cultural Developing Economies: The Case of ASEAN Countries," IDE Discussion Papers 52, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    10. Boz, Emine & Daude, Christian & Bora Durdu, C., 2011. "Emerging market business cycles: Learning about the trend," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(6), pages 616-631.
    11. Andrés Fernández & Adam Gulan, 2015. "Interest Rates, Leverage, and Business Cycles in Emerging Economies: The Role of Financial Frictions," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(3), pages 153-188, July.
    12. Horvath, Jaroslav, 2018. "Business cycles, informal economy, and interest rates in emerging countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 96-116.
    13. Ester Faia, 2011. "Macroeconomic and welfare implications of financial globalization," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 14, pages 119-144, May.
    14. Ottonello, Pablo, 2021. "Optimal exchange-rate policy under collateral constraints and wage rigidity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    15. Roberto Chang & Andrés Fernández, 2013. "On The Sources Of Aggregate Fluctuations In Emerging Economies," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 54(4), pages 1265-1293, November.
    16. Hevia, Constantino, 2014. "Emerging market fluctuations: What makes the difference?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 33-49.
    17. Fernández Martín, Andrés & Gulan, Adam, 2012. "Interest Rates and Business Cycles in Emerging Economies: The Role of Financial Frictions," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 4129, Inter-American Development Bank.
    18. Stefan Notz & Peter Rosenkranz, 2014. "Business cycles in emerging markets: the role of liability dollarization and valuation effects," ECON - Working Papers 163, Department of Economics - University of Zurich.
    19. Enrique G. Mendoza, 2010. "Sudden Stops, Financial Crises, and Leverage," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(5), pages 1941-1966, December.
    20. Gabriela Cugat, 2019. "Emerging markets, household heterogeneity, and exchange rate policy," 2019 Meeting Papers 526, Society for Economic Dynamics.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:51:y:2019:i:20:p:2155-2171. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAEC20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.