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Domenico Giannone

Citations

Many of the citations below have been collected in an experimental project, CitEc, where a more detailed citation analysis can be found. These are citations from works listed in RePEc that could be analyzed mechanically. So far, only a minority of all works could be analyzed. See under "Corrections" how you can help improve the citation analysis.

Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Marc Giannoni & Domenico Giannone & Andrea Tambalotti & Marco Del Negro, 2017. "Safety, Liquidity, and the Natural Rate of Interest," 2017 Meeting Papers 803, Society for Economic Dynamics.

    Mentioned in:

    1. What’s happened so far with the return on safe and liquid assets?
      by ? in FRED blog on 2020-08-31 13:00:00
  2. Giannone, Domenico & Monti, Francesca & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2016. "Exploiting the monthly data flow in structural forecasting," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 201-215.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Hey, Economist! How Do You Forecast the Present?
      by Blog Author in Liberty Street Economics on 2017-06-16 20:15:00
    2. Exploiting the monthly data flow in structural forecasting
      by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog on 2014-10-05 22:06:38
  3. Giannone, Domenico & Monti , Francesca & Reichlin , Lucrezia, 2014. "Exploiting the monthly data flow in structural forecasting," Bank of England working papers 509, Bank of England.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Hey, Economist! How Do You Forecast the Present?
      by Blog Author in Liberty Street Economics on 2017-06-16 20:15:00
    2. Exploiting the monthly data flow in structural forecasting
      by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog on 2014-10-05 22:06:38
  4. Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Small, David, 2008. "Nowcasting: The real-time informational content of macroeconomic data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 665-676, May.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Just Released: Historical Reconstruction of the New York Fed Staff Nowcast, 2002-15
      by Blog Author in Liberty Street Economics on 2019-07-12 15:27:59
    2. GDPNow's Forecast: Why Did It Spike Recently?
      by macroblog in Macroblog on 2018-02-13 18:29:31
    3. The "Scariest Spreadsheet In Fed Possession" Just Revealed A Very Scary Number For Q2 GDP
      by Tyler Durden in Zero Hedge on 2015-05-01 00:03:58
  5. Tobias Adrian & Nina Boyarchenko & Domenico Giannone, 2019. "Vulnerable Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(4), pages 1263-1289, April.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Possible pitfalls of a 1-in-X approach to financial stability
      by BankUnderground in Bank Underground on 2020-02-06 09:00:00
  6. Del Negro, Marco & Giannone, Domenico & Giannoni, Marc P. & Tambalotti, Andrea, 2019. "Global trends in interest rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 248-262.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Così l’invecchiamento abbassa i tassi di interesse
      by Andrea Papetti in La Voce on 2021-05-25 21:55:46
  7. Catherine Doz & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2012. "A Quasi–Maximum Likelihood Approach for Large, Approximate Dynamic Factor Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(4), pages 1014-1024, November.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Time-Varying Dynamic Factor Loadings
      by Francis Diebold in No Hesitations on 2016-01-20 23:32:00
  8. Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2008. "Business Cycles in the Euro Area," NBER Working Papers 14529, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Mentioned in:

    1. 34. Notable Women researchers on Economics
      by Euro American Association EAAEDS in Euro-American Association: World Development on 2018-10-09 19:52:00

RePEc Biblio mentions

As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography of Economics:
  1. Laura Coroneo & Domenico Giannone & Michele Modugno, 2014. "Unspanned macroeconomic factors in the yield curve," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-57, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    Mentioned in:

    1. > Econometrics > Time Series Models > Dynamic Factor Models > Structural Factor Models
  2. Bańbura, Marta & Giannone, Domenico & Modugno, Michele & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2013. "Now-Casting and the Real-Time Data Flow," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 195-237, Elsevier.

    Mentioned in:

    1. > Econometrics > Forecasting > Nowcasting
  3. Antonello D'Agostino & Luca Gambetti & Domenico Giannone, 2013. "Macroeconomic forecasting and structural change," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(1), pages 82-101, January.

    Mentioned in:

    1. > Econometrics > Time Series Models > VAR Models > Time Varying Parameters and Stochastic Volatility
  4. Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2006. "Does information help recovering structural shocks from past observations?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 4(2-3), pages 455-465, 04-05.

    Mentioned in:

    1. > Econometrics > Time Series Models > VAR Models
  5. Brandyn Bok & Daniele Caratelli & Domenico Giannone & Argia M. Sbordone & Andrea Tambalotti, 2017. "Macroeconomic nowcasting and forecasting with big data," Staff Reports 830, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Mentioned in:

    1. > Econometrics > Forecasting > Nowcasting
    2. > Econometrics > Big Data
  6. Bańbura, Marta & Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele, 2015. "Conditional forecasts and scenario analysis with vector autoregressions for large cross-sections," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 739-756.

    Mentioned in:

    1. > Econometrics > Time Series Models > VAR Models
    2. > Econometrics > Time Series Models > VAR Models > Bayesian Vector autoregressions (BVARs)
  7. Forni, Mario & Giannone, Domenico & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2009. "Opening The Black Box: Structural Factor Models With Large Cross Sections," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(5), pages 1319-1347, October.

    Mentioned in:

    1. > Econometrics > Time Series Models > Dynamic Factor Models > Structural Factor Models
  8. Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Small, David, 2008. "Nowcasting: The real-time informational content of macroeconomic data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 665-676, May.

    Mentioned in:

    1. > Econometrics > Forecasting
    2. > Econometrics > Forecasting > Nowcasting
    3. > Econometrics > Time Series Models > Dynamic Factor Models
  9. Catherine Doz & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2012. "A Quasi–Maximum Likelihood Approach for Large, Approximate Dynamic Factor Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(4), pages 1014-1024, November.

    Mentioned in:

    1. > Econometrics > Time Series Models > Dynamic Factor Models
  10. Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Sala, Luca, 2006. "VARs, common factors and the empirical validation of equilibrium business cycle models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 257-279, May.

    Mentioned in:

    1. > Econometrics > Time Series Models > Dynamic Factor Models > Structural Factor Models
  11. Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Primiceri, Giorgio, 2017. "Economic Predictions with Big Data: The Illusion Of Sparsity," CEPR Discussion Papers 12256, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Mentioned in:

    1. > Econometrics > Big Data
  12. Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & Luca Sala, 2005. "Monetary Policy in Real Time," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004, Volume 19, pages 161-224, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Mentioned in:

    1. > Econometrics > Time Series Models > Dynamic Factor Models
  13. Marta Banbura & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2010. "Large Bayesian vector auto regressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 71-92.

    Mentioned in:

    1. > Econometrics > Time Series Models > VAR Models
    2. > Econometrics > Time Series Models > VAR Models > Bayesian Vector autoregressions (BVARs)
  14. Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2015. "Prior Selection for Vector Autoregressions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 97(2), pages 436-451, May.

    Mentioned in:

    1. > Econometrics > Time Series Models > VAR Models > Bayesian Vector autoregressions (BVARs)
  15. Primiceri, Giorgio & Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele, 2016. "Priors for the Long Run," CEPR Discussion Papers 11261, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Mentioned in:

    1. > Econometrics > Time Series Models > VAR Models > Bayesian Vector autoregressions (BVARs)

Wikipedia or ReplicationWiki mentions

(Only mentions on Wikipedia that link back to a page on a RePEc service)
  1. Catherine Doz & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2012. "A Quasi–Maximum Likelihood Approach for Large, Approximate Dynamic Factor Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(4), pages 1014-1024, November.

    Mentioned in:

    1. A Quasi–Maximum Likelihood Approach for Large, Approximate Dynamic Factor Models (REStat 2012) in ReplicationWiki ()
  2. Antonello D'Agostino & Luca Gambetti & Domenico Giannone, 2013. "Macroeconomic forecasting and structural change," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(1), pages 82-101, January.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Macroeconomic forecasting and structural change (Journal of Applied Econometrics 2013) in ReplicationWiki ()
  3. Martha Banbura & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2010. "Nowcasting," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2010-021, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Nowcasting (economics) in Wikipedia (English)
  4. Marta Banbura & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2010. "Large Bayesian vector auto regressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 71-92.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Large Bayesian vector auto regressions (Journal of Applied Econometrics 2011) in ReplicationWiki ()

Working papers

  1. Lenza, Michele & Cimadomo, Jacopo & Giannone, Domenico & Monti, Francesca & Sokol, Andrej, 2021. "Nowcasting with Large Bayesian Vector Autoregressions," CEPR Discussion Papers 15854, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Longo, Luigi & Riccaboni, Massimo & Rungi, Armando, 2022. "A neural network ensemble approach for GDP forecasting," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    2. Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Domenico Giannone & Eric Qian & Argia M. Sbordone, 2021. "A Large Bayesian VAR of the United States Economy," Staff Reports 976, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    3. Martin Feldkircher & Florian Huber & Michael Pfarrhofer, 2020. "Measuring the Effectiveness of US Monetary Policy during the COVID-19 Recession," Papers 2007.15419, arXiv.org.
    4. Drechsel, Thomas & Antolin-Diaz, Juan & Petrella, Ivan, 2023. "Advances in Nowcasting Economic Activity: The Role of Heterogeneous Dynamics and Fat Tails," CEPR Discussion Papers 17800, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Bjarni G. Einarsson, 2024. "Online Monitoring of Policy Optimality," Economics wp95, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    6. Richard Schnorrenberger & Aishameriane Schmidt & Guilherme Valle Moura, 2024. "Harnessing Machine Learning for Real-Time Inflation Nowcasting," Working Papers 806, DNB.
    7. Beck, Günter W. & Carstensen, Kai & Menz, Jan-Oliver & Schnorrenberger, Richard & Wieland, Elisabeth, 2023. "Nowcasting consumer price inflation using high-frequency scanner data: Evidence from Germany," Discussion Papers 34/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    8. Bańbura, Marta & Belousova, Irina & Bodnár, Katalin & Tóth, Máté Barnabás, 2023. "Nowcasting employment in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2815, European Central Bank.
    9. Ricco, Giovanni & Hasenzagl, Thomas & Pellegrino, Filippo & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2022. "Monitoring the Economy in Real Time: Trends and Gaps in Real Activity and Prices," CEPR Discussion Papers 17111, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Saiz, Lorena & Ashwin, Julian & Kalamara, Eleni, 2021. "Nowcasting euro area GDP with news sentiment: a tale of two crises," Working Paper Series 2616, European Central Bank.
    11. Matteo Iacopini & Aubrey Poon & Luca Rossini & Dan Zhu, 2022. "Bayesian Mixed-Frequency Quantile Vector Autoregression: Eliciting tail risks of Monthly US GDP," Papers 2209.01910, arXiv.org.
    12. Donato Ceci & Orest Prifti & Andrea Silvestrini, 2024. "Nowcasting Italian GDP growth: a Factor MIDAS approach," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1446, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    13. Boriss Siliverstovs, 2021. "Gauging the Effect of Influential Observations on Measures of Relative Forecast Accuracy in a Post-COVID-19 Era: Application to Nowcasting Euro Area GDP Growth," Working Papers 2021/01, Latvijas Banka.
    14. Tesi Aliaj & Milos Ciganovic & Massimiliano Tancioni, 2023. "Nowcasting inflation with Lasso‐regularized vector autoregressions and mixed frequency data," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(3), pages 464-480, April.
    15. Boriss Siliverstovs, 2021. "New York FED Staff Nowcasts and Reality: What Can We Learn about the Future, the Present, and the Past?," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-25, March.
    16. Meyer-Gohde, Alexander & Shabalina, Ekaterina, 2022. "Estimation and forecasting using mixed-frequency DSGE models," IMFS Working Paper Series 175, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    17. Daniel Hopp, 2022. "Performance of long short-term memory artificial neural networks in nowcasting during the COVID-19 crisis," Papers 2203.11872, arXiv.org.
    18. James T. E. Chapman & Ajit Desai, 2022. "Macroeconomic Predictions using Payments Data and Machine Learning," Papers 2209.00948, arXiv.org.
    19. Sokol, Andrej, 2021. "Fan charts 2.0: flexible forecast distributions with expert judgement," Working Paper Series 2624, European Central Bank.
    20. Andreini, Paolo & Hasenzagl, Thomas & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Senftleben-König, Charlotte & Strohsal, Till, 2023. "Nowcasting German GDP: Foreign factors, financial markets, and model averaging," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 298-313.
    21. Serena Ng & Susannah Scanlan, 2023. "Constructing High Frequency Economic Indicators by Imputation," Papers 2303.01863, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2023.
    22. Alain Hecq & Marie Ternes & Ines Wilms, 2023. "Hierarchical Regularizers for Reverse Unrestricted Mixed Data Sampling Regressions," Papers 2301.10592, arXiv.org.
    23. Barbaglia, Luca & Frattarolo, Lorenzo & Onorante, Luca & Pericoli, Filippo Maria & Ratto, Marco & Tiozzo Pezzoli, Luca, 2022. "Testing big data in a big crisis: Nowcasting under COVID-19," Working Papers 2022-06, Joint Research Centre, European Commission.

  2. Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Domenico Giannone & Eric Qian & Argia M. Sbordone, 2021. "A Large Bayesian VAR of the United States Economy," Staff Reports 976, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Cited by:

    1. Lenza, Michele & Cimadomo, Jacopo & Giannone, Domenico & Monti, Francesca & Sokol, Andrej, 2021. "Nowcasting with Large Bayesian Vector Autoregressions," CEPR Discussion Papers 15854, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Anna Sznajderska & Alfred A. Haug, 2023. "Bayesian VARs of the U.S. economy before and during the pandemic," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 13(2), pages 211-236, June.
    3. Addie, Ron & Taranto, Aldo, 2024. "Economic Similarities and their Application to Inflation," EconStor Preprints 283286, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.

  3. Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Thiago Revil T. Ferreira & Domenico Giannone & Michele Modugno, 2021. "Back to the Present: Learning about the Euro Area through a Now-casting Model," International Finance Discussion Papers 1313, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    Cited by:

    1. Knut Are Aastveit & Tuva Marie Fastbø & Eleonora Granziera & Kenneth Sæterhagen Paulsen & Kjersti Næss Torstensen, 2020. "Nowcasting Norwegian household consumption with debit card transaction data," Working Paper 2020/17, Norges Bank.
    2. Arce-Alfaro, Gabriel & Blagov, Boris, 2021. "Heterogeneity, co-movements and financial fragmentation within the euro area," Ruhr Economic Papers 927, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    3. Andreini, Paolo & Hasenzagl, Thomas & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Senftleben-König, Charlotte & Strohsal, Till, 2023. "Nowcasting German GDP: Foreign factors, financial markets, and model averaging," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 298-313.

  4. Patrick A. Adams & Tobias Adrian & Nina Boyarchenko & Domenico Giannone & J. Nellie Liang & Eric Qian, 2020. "What Do Financial Conditions Tell Us about Risks to GDP Growth?," Liberty Street Economics 20200521, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Cited by:

    1. Kremer, Manfred & Chavleishvili, Sulkhan, 2021. "Measuring Systemic Financial Stress and its Impact on the Macroeconomy," VfS Annual Conference 2021 (Virtual Conference): Climate Economics 242346, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    2. Chavleishvili, Sulkhan & Kremer, Manfred, 2023. "Measuring systemic financial stress and its risks for growth," Working Paper Series 2842, European Central Bank.
    3. Chavleishvili, Sulkhan & Fahr, Stephan & Kremer, Manfred & Manganelli, Simone & Schwaab, Bernd, 2021. "A risk management perspective on macroprudential policy," Working Paper Series 2556, European Central Bank.
    4. Bank for International Settlements, 2022. "Private sector debt and financial stability," CGFS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 67, december.

  5. Nina Boyarchenko & Domenico Giannone & Anna Kovner, 2020. "Bank Capital and Real GDP Growth," Staff Reports 950, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Cited by:

    1. Nina Boyarchenko & Giovanni Favara & Moritz Schularick, 2022. "Financial Stability Considerations for Monetary Policy: Empirical Evidence and Challenges," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2022-006, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Gloria Gonzalez-Rivera & Vladimir Rodriguez-Caballero & Esther Ruiz, 2021. "Expecting the unexpected: economic growth under stress," Working Papers 202106, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics.

  6. Adrian, Tobias & Adams, Patrick & Boyarchenko, Nina & Giannone, Domenico, 2020. "Forecasting Macroeconomic Risks," CEPR Discussion Papers 14436, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Christian P Pinshi, 2022. "Ciblage des prévisions d'inflation : Un nouveau cadre pour la politique monétaire ?," Working Papers hal-03548273, HAL.
    2. David Kohns & Tibor Szendrei, 2021. "Decoupling Shrinkage and Selection for the Bayesian Quantile Regression," Papers 2107.08498, arXiv.org.
    3. Laurent Ferrara & Matteo Mogliani & Jean-Guillaume Sahuc, 2020. "High-frequency monitoring of growth-at-risk," CAMA Working Papers 2020-97, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    4. Noori, Mohammad & Hitaj, Asmerilda, 2023. "Dissecting hedge funds' strategies," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    5. Michael Pfarrhofer, 2021. "Modeling tail risks of inflation using unobserved component quantile regressions," Papers 2103.03632, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2021.
    6. Jan Pruser & Florian Huber, 2023. "Nonlinearities in Macroeconomic Tail Risk through the Lens of Big Data Quantile Regressions," Papers 2301.13604, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2023.
    7. Piotr Rubaj, 2021. "Risk Mitigation in Business Activities on Emerging Markets," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(4B), pages 699-712.
    8. Valentina Aprigliano & Alessandro Borin & Francesco Paolo Conteduca & Simone Emiliozzi & Marco Flaccadoro & Sabina Marchetti & Stefania Villa, 2021. "Forecasting Italian GDP growth with epidemiological data," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 664, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    9. Jane M. Ryngaert, 2023. "Balance of Risks and the Anchoring of Consumer Expectations," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-18, January.
    10. Nina Boyarchenko & Giovanni Favara & Moritz Schularick, 2022. "Financial Stability Considerations for Monetary Policy: Empirical Evidence and Challenges," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2022-006, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. Efrem Castelnuovo & Lorenzo Mori, 2022. "Uncertainty, Skewness and the Business Cycle - Through the MIDAS Lens," CAMA Working Papers 2022-69, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    12. Matteo Iacopini & Aubrey Poon & Luca Rossini & Dan Zhu, 2022. "Bayesian Mixed-Frequency Quantile Vector Autoregression: Eliciting tail risks of Monthly US GDP," Papers 2209.01910, arXiv.org.
    13. Marian Vavra, 2023. "Bias-Correction in Time Series Quantile Regression Models," Working and Discussion Papers WP 3/2023, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    14. Sharpe, Steven A. & Sinha, Nitish R. & Hollrah, Christopher A., 2023. "The power of narrative sentiment in economic forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1097-1121.
    15. PINSHI, Christian P., 2022. "Inflation-Forecast Targeting: A New Framework for Monetary Policy?," MPRA Paper 111709, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Daniel Gros, 2021. "High Public Debt in an Uncertain World: Post-Covid-19 Dangers for Public Finance," EconPol Policy Brief 38, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    17. Matteo Iacopini & Francesco Ravazzolo & Luca Rossini, 2022. "Bayesian Multivariate Quantile Regression with alternative Time-varying Volatility Specifications," Papers 2211.16121, arXiv.org.
    18. Iseringhausen, Martin, 2024. "A time-varying skewness model for Growth-at-Risk," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 229-246.
    19. Fischer, Manfred M. & Hauzenberger, Niko & Huber, Florian & Pfarrhofer, Michael, 2022. "General Bayesian time-varying parameter VARs for modeling government bond yields," Working Papers in Regional Science 2021/01, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    20. Lang, Jan Hannes & Rusnák, Marek & Greiwe, Moritz, 2023. "Medium-term growth-at-risk in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2808, European Central Bank.
    21. Stolbov, Mikhail & Shchepeleva, Maria, 2022. "Modeling global real economic activity: Evidence from variable selection across quantiles," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 25(C).
    22. Manfred M. Fischer & Niko Hauzenberger & Florian Huber & Michael Pfarrhofer, 2023. "General Bayesian time‐varying parameter vector autoregressions for modeling government bond yields," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(1), pages 69-87, January.
    23. Sokol, Andrej, 2021. "Fan charts 2.0: flexible forecast distributions with expert judgement," Working Paper Series 2624, European Central Bank.
    24. Michael P. Clements & Shixuan Wang, 2023. "Do Professional Forecasters' Phillips Curves Incorporate the Beliefs of Others?," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2023-05, Department of Economics, University of Reading.
    25. Manfred M. Fischer & Niko Hauzenberger & Florian Huber & Michael Pfarrhofer, 2021. "General Bayesian time-varying parameter VARs for predicting government bond yields," Papers 2102.13393, arXiv.org.
    26. Jack Fosten & Daniel Gutknecht & Marc-Oliver Pohle, 2023. "Testing Quantile Forecast Optimality," Papers 2302.02747, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2023.
    27. Nyholm, Juho & Voutilainen, Ville, 2021. "Quantiles of growth: Household debt and growth vulnerabilities in Finland," BoF Economics Review 2/2021, Bank of Finland.

  7. Boyarchenko, Nina & Adrian, Tobias & Giannone, Domenico, 2020. "Multimodality in Macro-Financial Dynamics," CEPR Discussion Papers 15088, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Guojin & Liu, Yanzhen & Zhang, Yu, 2020. "Can systemic risk measures predict economic shocks? Evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    2. Niko Hauzenberger & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & James Mitchell, 2023. "Bayesian Modeling of Time-Varying Parameters Using Regression Trees," Working Papers 23-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    3. Eller, Markus & Hauzenberger, Niko & Huber, Florian & Schuberth, Helene & Vashold, Lukas, 2021. "The impact of macroprudential policies on capital flows in CESEE," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    4. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Pablo A. Guerrón-Quintana, 2020. "Uncertainty Shocks and Business Cycle Research," NBER Working Papers 26768, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. James Mitchell & Aubrey Poon & Dan Zhu, 2022. "Constructing Density Forecasts from Quantile Regressions: Multimodality in Macro-Financial Dynamics," Working Papers 22-12R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 11 Apr 2023.
    6. Florian, Huber & Koop, Gary & Onorante, Luca & Pfarrhofer, Michael & Schreiner, Josef, 2021. "Nowcasting in a Pandemic using Non-Parametric Mixed Frequency VARs," Working Papers 2021-01, Joint Research Centre, European Commission.
    7. Alexander Georges Gretener & Matthias Neuenkirch & Dennis Umlandt, 2022. "Dynamic Mixture Vector Autoregressions with Score-Driven Weights," Research Papers in Economics 2022-02, University of Trier, Department of Economics.
    8. Jan Pruser & Florian Huber, 2023. "Nonlinearities in Macroeconomic Tail Risk through the Lens of Big Data Quantile Regressions," Papers 2301.13604, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2023.
    9. Adrian, Tobias & Adams, Patrick & Boyarchenko, Nina & Giannone, Domenico, 2020. "Forecasting Macroeconomic Risks," CEPR Discussion Papers 14436, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Samuel Hurtado & Galo Nuño, 2019. "Financial Frictions and the Wealth Distribution," NBER Working Papers 26302, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Gael M. Martin & David T. Frazier & Worapree Maneesoonthorn & Ruben Loaiza-Maya & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & John Maheu & Didier Nibbering & Anastasios Panagiotelis, 2022. "Bayesian Forecasting in Economics and Finance: A Modern Review," Papers 2212.03471, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2023.
    12. Jan Prüser & Florian Huber, 2024. "Nonlinearities in macroeconomic tail risk through the lens of big data quantile regressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(2), pages 269-291, March.
    13. Rottner, Matthias, 2023. "Financial crises and shadow banks: A quantitative analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 74-92.
    14. Mark Gertler & Nobuhiro Kiyotaki & Andrea Prestipino, 2020. "Credit Booms, Financial Crises and Macroprudential Policy," Working Papers 2020-62, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    15. Yunyun Wang & Tatsushi Oka & Dan Zhu, 2023. "Distributional Vector Autoregression: Eliciting Macro and Financial Dependence," Papers 2303.04994, arXiv.org.
    16. Garratt, Anthony & Henckel, Timo & Vahey, Shaun P., 2023. "Empirically-transformed linear opinion pools," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 736-753.
    17. Mark Gertler & Nobuhiro Kiyotaki & Andrea Prestipino, 2020. "Credit Booms, Financial Crises and Macroprudential Policy," NBER Working Papers 27481, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Dimitris Korobilis & Maximilian Schroder, 2023. "Monitoring multicountry macroeconomic risk," Papers 2305.09563, arXiv.org.
    19. Chavleishvili, Sulkhan & Kremer, Manfred, 2023. "Measuring systemic financial stress and its risks for growth," Working Paper Series 2842, European Central Bank.
    20. Chavleishvili, Sulkhan & Fahr, Stephan & Kremer, Manfred & Manganelli, Simone & Schwaab, Bernd, 2021. "A risk management perspective on macroprudential policy," Working Paper Series 2556, European Central Bank.
    21. Deng, Chuang & Wu, Jian, 2023. "Macroeconomic downside risk and the effect of monetary policy," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    22. Chavleishvili, Sulkhan & Engle, Robert F. & Fahr, Stephan & Kremer, Manfred & Manganelli, Simone & Schwaab, Bernd, 2021. "The risk management approach to macro-prudential policy," Working Paper Series 2565, European Central Bank.

  8. Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2019. "Money, credit, monetary policy and the business cycle in the euro area: what has changed since the crisis?," Working Paper Series 2226, European Central Bank.

    Cited by:

    1. Del Negro, Marco & Lenza, Michele & Primiceri, Giorgio E. & Tambalotti, Andrea, 2020. "What’s up with the Phillips Curve?," Working Paper Series 2435, European Central Bank.
    2. Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Domenico Giannone & Eric Qian & Argia M. Sbordone, 2021. "A Large Bayesian VAR of the United States Economy," Staff Reports 976, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    3. Guido Ascari & Luca Fosso, 2021. "The Inflation Rate Disconnect Puzzle: On the International Component of Trend Inflation and the Flattening of the Phillips Curve," Working Paper 2021/17, Norges Bank.
    4. Lenza, Michele & Cimadomo, Jacopo & Giannone, Domenico & Monti, Francesca & Sokol, Andrej, 2021. "Nowcasting with Large Bayesian Vector Autoregressions," CEPR Discussion Papers 15854, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Petrella, Ivan & Antolin-Diaz, Juan & Rubio-Ramírez, Juan Francisco, 2018. "Structural Scenario Analysis with SVARs," CEPR Discussion Papers 12579, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Angela Capolongo & Claudia Pacella, 2019. "Forecasting inflation in the euro area: countries matter!," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1224, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    7. Dajčman Silvo & Kavkler Alenka & Levenko Natalia & Romih Dejan, 2022. "Spillover effects of economic policy uncertainty on adult and youth unemployment," Review of Economic Perspectives, Sciendo, vol. 23(1), pages 47-70, December.
    8. Elena Afanasyeva, 2020. "Can Forecast Errors Predict Financial Crises? Exploring the Properties of a New Multivariate Credit Gap," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-045, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. Pedro J. Gutiérrez-Diez & Tibor Pàl, 2023. "Monetary policy models: lessons from the Eurozone crisis," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-19, December.
    10. Matteo Barigozzi, 2023. "Quasi Maximum Likelihood Estimation of High-Dimensional Factor Models: A Critical Review," Papers 2303.11777, arXiv.org, revised May 2024.
    11. Chavleishvili, Sulkhan & Kremer, Manfred & Lund-Thomsen, Frederik, 2023. "Quantifying financial stability trade-offs for monetary policy: a quantile VAR approach," Working Paper Series 2833, European Central Bank.
    12. Gianluca Cafiso, 2022. "Loans to Different Groups and Economic Activity at Times of Crisis and Growth," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(3), pages 594-623, June.

  9. Marco Del Negro & Domenico Giannone & Marc Giannoni & Andrea Tambalotti, 2018. "Global Trends in Interest Rates," Working Papers 1812, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

    Cited by:

    1. Taylor, Alan M. & Grimm, Maximilian & Jordà , Òscar & Schularick, Moritz, 2023. "Loose monetary policy and financial instability," CEPR Discussion Papers 17896, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Edoardo Rainone, 2022. "Currency demand at negative policy rates," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1359, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    3. Goodhart, Charles A.E. & Tsomocos, Dimitrios P. & Wang, Xuan, 2023. "Support for small businesses amid COVID‐19," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118164, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    4. Alexander Beames & Mariano Kulish & Nadine Yamout, 2022. "Fiscal Policy and the Slowdown in Trend Growth in an Open Economy," Working Papers 143, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    5. Andrade Philippe, & Galí Jordi, & Le Bihan Hervé, & Matheron Julien., 2021. "Should the ECB Adjust its Strategy in the Face of a Lower r*?," Working papers 811, Banque de France.
    6. Nitschka, Thomas & Satkurunathan, Shajivan, 2021. "Habits die hard: implications for bond and stock markets internationally," VfS Annual Conference 2021 (Virtual Conference): Climate Economics 242358, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    7. Beyer, Robert & Milivojevic, Lazar, 2021. "Dynamics and synchronization of global equilibrium interest rates," IMFS Working Paper Series 146, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    8. Chen, Jiazi & Niu, Linlin, 2023. "How do baby boomers affect interest rates? A functional analysis of the impact of age distribution on macroeconomic trends," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    9. Bailey, Andrew & Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio & Garofalo, Marco & Harrison, Richard & McLaren, Nick & Sajedi, Rana & Piton, Sophie, 2023. "Structural change, global R* and the missing-investment puzzle," Bank of England working papers 997, Bank of England.
    10. Inda Mulaahmetovic, 2022. "Evaluating the Effectiveness of Quantitative Easing Measures of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 12(3), pages 141-163.
    11. Kuvshinov, Dmitry & Richter, Björn & Zimmermann, Kaspar, 2022. "The shifts and the shocks: bank risk, leverage, and the macroeconomy," Working Paper Series 2672, European Central Bank.
    12. Gary Hansen & Selahattin Imrohoroglu, 2023. "Demographic Change, Government Debt and Fiscal Sustainability in Japan: The Impact of Bond Purchase by the Bank of Japan," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 50, pages 88-105, October.
    13. Philippe Bacchetta & Kenza Benhima & Jean-Paul Renne, 2022. "Understanding Swiss real interest rates in a financially globalized world," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 158(1), pages 1-17, December.
    14. Feldkircher, Martin & Lukmanova, Elizaveta & Tondl, Gabriele, 2019. "Global Factors Driving Inflation and Monetary Policy: A Global VAR Assessment," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 289, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    15. Brand, Claus & Mazelis, Falk, 2019. "Taylor-rule consistent estimates of the natural rate of interest," Working Paper Series 2257, European Central Bank.
    16. Westerhout, Ed & Meijdam, Lex & Ponds, Eduard & Bonenkamp, Jan, 2021. "Should we Revive PAYG? On the Optimal Pension System in View of Current Economic Trends," Discussion Paper 2021-013, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    17. Casalin, Fabrizio & Cerniglia, Floriana & Dia, Enzo, 2023. "Stock-flow adjustments, public debt management and interest costs," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    18. Dario Caldara & Etienne Gagnon & Enrique Martínez García & Christopher J. Neely, 2020. "Monetary Policy and Economic Performance since the Financial Crisis," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-065, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    19. Yunus Aksoy & Henrique S. Basso & Carolyn St Aubyn, 2019. "Time Variation in Lifecycle Consumption and Income," BCAM Working Papers 1904, Birkbeck Centre for Applied Macroeconomics.
    20. Boda Kang & Christina Sklibosios Nikitopoulos & Marcel Prokopczuk, 2019. "Economic Determinants of Oil Futures Volatility: A Term Structure Perspective," Research Paper Series 401, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    21. Corradin, Stefano & Grimm, Niklas & Schwaab, Bernd, 2021. "Euro area sovereign bond risk premia during the Covid-19 pandemic," Working Paper Series 2561, European Central Bank.
    22. Renzhi, Nuobu, 2022. "Do house prices play a role in unconventional monetary policy transmission in Japan?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    23. Lucio Gobbi & Ronny Mazzocchi & Roberto Tamborini, 2019. "Monetary Policy, Rational Confidence and Neo-Fisherian Depressions," EconPol Working Paper 38, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    24. Kuvshinov, Dmitry & Zimmermann, Kaspar, 2020. "The Expected Return on Risky Assets: International Long-run Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 15610, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    25. Ambrocio, Gene & Hasan, Iftekhar, 2021. "Quid pro quo? Political ties and sovereign borrowing," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    26. Schünemann, Johannes & Grossmann, Volker & Strulik, Holger, 2023. "Fair Pension Policies with Occupation-Specific Aging," VfS Annual Conference 2023 (Regensburg): Growth and the "sociale Frage" 277593, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    27. Carolin Schellhorn, 2020. "Financial System Stability, the Timing of Climate Change Action and the Federal Reserve," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 9(3), pages 45-59.
    28. Takao Asano & Xiaojing Cai & Ryuta Sakemoto, 2023. "Time-varying ambiguity shocks and business cycles," KIER Working Papers 1094, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
    29. Arce-Alfaro, Gabriel & Blagov, Boris, 2022. "Financial integration or financial fragmentation? A euro area perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    30. Calice,Pietro & Diaz Kalan,Federico Alfonso & Masetti,Oliver, 2020. "Interest Rate Repression : A New Database," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9457, The World Bank.
    31. Marcin Bielecki & Michał Brzoza-Brzezina & Marcin Kolasa, 2020. "Demographics and the natural interest rate in the euro area," Working Papers 2020-24, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    32. Davis, Leila & de Souza, Joao & Kim, YK. & Rella, Giacomo, 2023. "What are firms borrowing for? The role of financial assets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    33. Madalen Castells Jauregui & Dmitry Kuvshinov & Bjoern Richter & Victoria Vanasco, 2024. "Sectoral dynamics of safe assets in advanced economies," Economics Working Papers 1884, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    34. Juvenal José Duarte & Sahudy Montenegro González & José César Cruz, 2021. "Predicting Stock Price Falls Using News Data: Evidence from the Brazilian Market," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 57(1), pages 311-340, January.
    35. Hauptmeier, Sebastian & Kamps, Christophe & Radke, Lucas, 2022. "Counter-cyclical fiscal rules and the zero lower bound," Working Paper Series 2715, European Central Bank.
    36. Billi, Roberto & Galí, Jordi & Nakov, Anton, 2024. "Optimal Monetary Policy with r," Working Paper Series 433, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    37. Chen, Jiaqian & Finocchiaro, Daria & Lindé, Jesper & Walentin, Karl, 2020. "The costs of macroprudential deleveraging in a liquidity trap," Working Paper Series 389, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    38. Maurice Obstfeld, 2020. "Global Dimensions of U.S. Monetary Policy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(1), pages 73-132, February.
    39. Papetti, Andrea, 2019. "Demographics and the natural real interest rate: historical and projected paths for the euro area," Working Paper Series 2258, European Central Bank.
    40. Stolyarov, Dmitriy & Tesar, Linda L., 2021. "Interest rate trends in a global context," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    41. Niko Hauzenberger & Daniel Kaufmann & Rebecca Stuart & Cédric Tille, 2022. "What Drives Long-Term Interest Rates? Evidence from the Entire Swiss Franc History 1852-2020," IRENE Working Papers 22-03, IRENE Institute of Economic Research.
    42. Engel, Charles, 2020. "Safe U.S. Assets and U.S. Capital Flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    43. van Riet Ad, 2019. "Monetary Policy and Unnatural Low Interest Rates: Secular Stagnation or Financial Repression?," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 70(2), pages 99-135, August.
    44. Corradin, Stefano & Schwaab, Bernd, 2023. "Euro area sovereign bond risk premia before and during the Covid-19 pandemic," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    45. Brand, Claus & Goy, Gavin & Lemke, Wolfgang, 2021. "Natural rate chimera and bond pricing reality," Working Paper Series 2612, European Central Bank.
    46. Rossi, Barbara, 2019. "Identifying and Estimating the Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy: How to Do It And What Have We Learned?," CEPR Discussion Papers 14064, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    47. Wang, Olivier, 2020. "Banks, low interest rates, and monetary policy transmission," Working Paper Series 2492, European Central Bank.
    48. Mertens, Elmar, 2023. "Precision-based sampling for state space models that have no measurement error," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    49. Aditya Aladangady & Etienne Gagnon & Benjamin K. Johannsen & William B. Peterman, 2021. "Macroeconomic Implications of Inequality and Income Risk," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-073, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    50. Fiedler, Salomon & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Jannsen, Nils & Wolters, Maik H., 2019. "Growth prospects, the natural interest rate, and monetary policy," Economics Discussion Papers 2019-17, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    51. Patricia Gomez-Gonzalez & Gabriel Mathy, 2024. "The World's First Global Safe Asset: British Public Debt, 1718-1913," Fordham Economics Discussion Paper Series dp2024-01er:dp2024-01, Fordham University, Department of Economics.
    52. Weshah Razzak, 2020. "The Riddle of the Natural Rate of Interest," Discussion Papers 2006, School of Economics and Finance, Massey University, New Zealand.
    53. Chris Edmond & Richard Holden & Bruce Preston, 2020. "Should We Worry about Government Debt? Thoughts on Australia's COVID‐19 Response," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 53(4), pages 557-565, December.
    54. Francesco Bianchi & Giovanni Nicolo & Dongho Song, 2023. "Inflation and Real Activity over the Business Cycle," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-038, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    55. Guillaume Horny & Supriya Kapoor, 2021. "Investment Response to Monetary Policy in a Low Interest Rate Environment: Evidence from the ECB's Corporate QE," Trinity Economics Papers tep1121, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    56. Yu, Zhen & Liu, Wei & Yang, Fuyu, 2023. "A central bankers’ sentiment index of global financial cycle," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    57. Clemens Fuest & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2020. "Low Interest Rates: Global Causes and Policy Implications for Germany," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 21(01), pages 3-6, April.
    58. Harrison, Richard, 2024. "Optimal quantitative easing and tightening," Bank of England working papers 1063, Bank of England.
    59. Potjagailo, Galina & Wolters, Maik H., 2019. "Global financial cycles since 1880," IMFS Working Paper Series 132, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    60. Arce-Alfaro, Gabriel & Blagov, Boris, 2021. "Heterogeneity, co-movements and financial fragmentation within the euro area," Ruhr Economic Papers 927, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    61. David Staines, 2023. "Stochastic Equilibrium the Lucas Critique and Keynesian Economics," Papers 2312.16214, arXiv.org, revised May 2024.
    62. Lukasz Rachel & Lawrence H. Summers, 2019. "On Secular Stagnation in the Industrialized World," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 50(1 (Spring), pages 1-76.
    63. Kim, Duhyeong, 2023. "International effects of quantitative easing and foreign exchange intervention," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    64. Gross, Jonas & Zahner, Johannes, 2021. "What is on the ECB’s mind? Monetary policy before and after the global financial crisis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    65. Mohamed Belkhir & Sami Ben Naceur & Mr. Ralph Chami & Anis Semet, 2019. "Bank Capital and the Cost of Equity," IMF Working Papers 2019/265, International Monetary Fund.
    66. Kuvshinov, Dmitry & Zimmermann, Kaspar, 2022. "The big bang: Stock market capitalization in the long run," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(2), pages 527-552.
    67. Jongrim Ha, 2021. "Financial market spillovers of U.S. monetary policy shocks," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(5), pages 1221-1274, November.
    68. Mitchener, Kris & Trebesch, Christoph, 2021. "Sovereign Debt in the 21st Century: Looking Backward, Looking Forward," CEPR Discussion Papers 15935, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    69. Jiazi Chen & Zhiwu Hong & Linlin Niu, 2022. "Forecasting Interest Rates with Shifting Endpoints: The Role of the Demographic Age Structure," Working Papers 2022-06-25, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University.
    70. Doojav, Gan-Ochir & Gantumur, Munkhbayar, 2020. "Measuring the natural rate of interest in a commodity exporting economy: Evidence from Mongolia," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 199-218.
    71. Mireille Jaeger, 2019. "La faiblesse du taux d'intérêt exprime-t-elle de nouvelles préférences de notre société à l'égard du futur ?," Post-Print halshs-02168824, HAL.
    72. Ferreira, Thiago R.T. & Shousha, Samer, 2023. "Determinants of global neutral interest rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    73. Andrade, Philippe & Galí, Jordi & Le Bihan, Hervé & Matheron, Julien, 2021. "Should the ECB adjust its strategy in the face of a lower r★?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    74. Zhang, Ren & Martínez-García, Enrique & Wynne, Mark A. & Grossman, Valerie, 2021. "Ties that bind: Estimating the natural rate of interest for small open economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    75. Zongwu Cai & Jiazi Chen & Linlin Niu, 2021. "A Semiparametric Model for Bond Pricing with Life Cycle Fundamental," Working Papers 2021-01-06, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University.
    76. Goto, Eiji, 2023. "International comovement of r∗: A case study of the G7 countries," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    77. Mariano Kulish & Nadine Yamout, 2024. "The Fiscal Arithmetic of a Slowdown in Trend Growth," Working Papers 308, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    78. Ivan Aleksandrovich Kopytin & Nikolay Petrovich Pilnik & Ivan Pavlovich Stankevich, 2021. "Modelling Five Variables BVAR for Economic Policies and Growth in Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Russia: 2005 2020," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(5), pages 510-518.
    79. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2023. "The Rising Cost of Climate Change: Evidence from the Bond Market," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 105(5), pages 1255-1270, September.
    80. Andrea Papetti, 2021. "Population aging, relative prices and capital flows across the globe," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1333, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    81. Maurice Obstfeld, 2020. "Harry Johnson's “Case for flexible exchange rates”—50 years later," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 88(S1), pages 86-113, September.
    82. Fu, Bowen, 2023. "Measuring the trend real interest rate in a data-rich environment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    83. Zongwu Cai & Jiazi Chen & Linlin Liu, 2021. "Estimating Impact of Age Distribution on Bond Pricing: A Semiparametric Functional Data Analysis Approach," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 202102, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Jan 2021.
    84. Frank Smets, 2021. "Comment expliquer la faiblesse durable des taux directeurs dans la zone euro ?," Revue d'économie financière, Association d'économie financière, vol. 0(4), pages 47-60.
    85. Ruch,Franz Ulrich, 2021. "Neutral Real Interest Rates in Inflation Targeting Emerging and Developing Economies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9711, The World Bank.
    86. Daniel Rees & Guofeng Sun, 2021. "The natural interest rate in China," BIS Working Papers 949, Bank for International Settlements.
    87. Murota, Ryu-ichiro, 2022. "The effect of a decline in the world real interest rate on a small open economy experiencing persistent stagnation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    88. Thiago Revil T. Ferreira & Samer Shousha, 2020. "Scarcity of Safe Assets and Global Neutral Interest Rates," International Finance Discussion Papers 1293, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    89. Johnston, Lauren A., 2020. "China’s Economic Demography Transition Strategy: A Population Weighted Approach to the Economy and Policy," GLO Discussion Paper Series 593, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    90. Jaeho Kim & Sora Chon, 2022. "Bayesian estimation of the long-run trend of the US economy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(2), pages 461-485, February.
    91. Manfred M. Fischer & Niko Hauzenberger & Florian Huber & Michael Pfarrhofer, 2023. "General Bayesian time‐varying parameter vector autoregressions for modeling government bond yields," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(1), pages 69-87, January.
    92. Pang, Ke & Shiamptanis, Christos, 2024. "Is the Bank of Canada concerned about inflation or the state of the economy?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    93. Jens Boysen-Hogrefe, 2021. "Trendwende in der demografischen Abhängigkeitsquote — Folgen für das Zinsniveau?," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 101(4), pages 316-318, April.
    94. Enrique Martínez García, 2020. "Get the Lowdown: The International Side of the Fall in the U.S. Natural Rate of Interest," Globalization Institute Working Papers 403, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, revised 20 Feb 2021.
    95. Thanh Cong Nguyen & Vítor Castro & Justine Wood, 2022. "Political economy of financial crisis duration," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 192(3), pages 309-330, September.
    96. Carlos Carvalho & Andrea Ferrero & Felipe Mazin & Fernanda Nechio, 2023. "Demographics and Real Interest Rates Across Countries and Over Time," Working Paper Series 2023-32, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    97. Obstfeld, Maurice, 2020. "Harry Johnson’s “Case for Flexible Exchange Rates†– 50 Years Later," CEPR Discussion Papers 14488, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    98. Madalen Castells Jauregui & Dmitry Kuvshinov & Björn Richter & Victoria Vanasco, 2024. "Sectoral Dynamics of Safe Assets in Advanced Economies," Working Papers 1438, Barcelona School of Economics.
    99. Thiago Revil T. Ferreira & Samer Shousha, 2021. "Supply of Sovereign Safe Assets and Global Interest Rates," International Finance Discussion Papers 1315, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    100. Akira Sakai, 2023. "Have lower interest rates tightened capital regulation? Empirical analysis using data of regional banks," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 43(1), pages 74-84.
    101. Gaetano Bloise & Pietro Reichlin, 2023. "Low safe interest rates: A case for dynamic inefficiency?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 633-656, December.
    102. Cooke, Dudley & Kara, Engin, 2022. "The role of heterogeneity in price rigidities for delayed nominal exchange rate overshooting," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    103. Bruno Feunou & Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, 2021. "Debt-Secular Economic Changes and Bond Yields," Staff Working Papers 21-14, Bank of Canada.
    104. Radoslaw (Radek) Stefanski & Alex Trew, 2020. "Patience Breeds Interest: The Rise of Societal Patience and the Fall of the Risk-free Interest Rate," Working Papers 2020-03, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    105. Chen, Chaoyi & Gospodinov, Nikolay & Maynard, Alex & Pesavento, Elena, 2022. "Long-horizon stock valuation and return forecasts based on demographic projections," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 190-215.

  10. Giannone, Domenico & Tambalotti, Andrea & Sbordone, Argia & Bok, Brandyn & Caratelli, Daniele, 2018. "Macroeconomic Nowcasting and Forecasting with Big Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 12589, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Martin Ellison & Sang Seok Lee & Kevin Hjortshøj O'Rourke, 2020. "The Ends of 27 Big Depressions," NBER Working Papers 27586, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia & Ricco, Giovanni, 2018. "Bayesian vector autoregressions," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 87393, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    3. Liyang Tang, 2020. "Application of Nonlinear Autoregressive with Exogenous Input (NARX) neural network in macroeconomic forecasting, national goal setting and global competitiveness assessment," Papers 2005.08735, arXiv.org.
    4. Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Domenico Giannone & Eric Qian & Argia M. Sbordone, 2021. "A Large Bayesian VAR of the United States Economy," Staff Reports 976, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    5. Alkhareif, Ryadh M. & Barnett, William A., 2020. "Nowcasting Real GDP for Saudi Arabia," MPRA Paper 104278, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. David Kohns & Arnab Bhattacharjee, 2019. "Interpreting Big Data in the Macro Economy: A Bayesian Mixed Frequency Estimator," CEERP Working Paper Series 010, Centre for Energy Economics Research and Policy, Heriot-Watt University.
    7. Lenza, Michele & Cimadomo, Jacopo & Giannone, Domenico & Monti, Francesca & Sokol, Andrej, 2021. "Nowcasting with Large Bayesian Vector Autoregressions," CEPR Discussion Papers 15854, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Cascaldi-Garcia, Danilo & Ferreira, Thiago R.T. & Giannone, Domenico & Modugno, Michele, 2024. "Back to the present: Learning about the euro area through a now-casting model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 661-686.
    9. Drechsel, Thomas & Antolin-Diaz, Juan & Petrella, Ivan, 2023. "Advances in Nowcasting Economic Activity: The Role of Heterogeneous Dynamics and Fat Tails," CEPR Discussion Papers 17800, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Babii, Andrii & Ghysels, Eric & Striaukas, Jonas, 2021. "Machine Learning Time Series Regressions With an Application to Nowcasting," LIDAM Reprints LFIN 2021010, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain Finance (LFIN).
    11. Dennis Kant & Andreas Pick & Jasper de Winter, 2022. "Nowcasting GDP using machine learning methods," Working Papers 754, DNB.
    12. James Chapman & Ajit Desai, 2021. "Using Payments Data to Nowcast Macroeconomic Variables During the Onset of COVID-19," Staff Working Papers 21-2, Bank of Canada.
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    36. Konstantin Kuck & Karsten Schweikert, 2021. "Forecasting Baden‐Württemberg's GDP growth: MIDAS regressions versus dynamic mixed‐frequency factor models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(5), pages 861-882, August.
    37. Ademmer, Martin & Beckmann, Joscha & Bode, Eckhardt & Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Funke, Manuel & Hauber, Philipp & Heidland, Tobias & Hinz, Julian & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Söder, Mareike & Stame, 2021. "Big Data in der makroökonomischen Analyse," Kieler Beiträge zur Wirtschaftspolitik 32, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    38. Samuel N. Cohen & Silvia Lui & Will Malpass & Giulia Mantoan & Lars Nesheim & 'Aureo de Paula & Andrew Reeves & Craig Scott & Emma Small & Lingyi Yang, 2023. "Nowcasting with signature methods," Papers 2305.10256, arXiv.org.
    39. Boriss Siliverstovs, 2021. "Gauging the Effect of Influential Observations on Measures of Relative Forecast Accuracy in a Post-COVID-19 Era: Application to Nowcasting Euro Area GDP Growth," Working Papers 2021/01, Latvijas Banka.
    40. Kevin Hjortshøj O’Rourke & Sang Seok Lee & Martin Ellison, 2020. "The Ends of 30 Big Depressions," Working Papers 20200035, New York University Abu Dhabi, Department of Social Science, revised May 2020.
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    42. Lyu, Yifei & Nie, Jun & Yang, Shu-Kuei X., 2021. "Forecasting US economic growth in downturns using cross-country data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
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    44. Emilio Blanco & Fiorella Dogliolo & Lorena Garegnani, 2022. "Nowcasting during the Pandemic: Lessons from Argentina," BCRA Working Paper Series 202299, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department.
    45. Abdalla, Ahmed & Carabias, Jose M. & Patatoukas, Panos N., 2021. "The real-time macro content of corporate financial reports: a dynamic factor model approach," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 108539, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    46. Jinjing Li & Yogi Vidyattama & Hai Anh La & Riyana Miranti & Denisa M Sologon, 2020. "The Impact of COVID-19 and Policy Responses on Australian Income Distribution and Poverty," Papers 2009.04037, arXiv.org.
    47. Yose Rizal Damuri & Prabaning Tyas & Haryo Aswicahyono & Lionel Priyadi & Stella Kusumawardhani & Ega Kurnia Yazid, 2021. "Tracking the Ups and Downs in Indonesia’s Economic Activity During COVID-19 Using Mobility Index: Evidence from Provinces in Java and Bali," Working Papers DP-2021-18, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    48. Takashi Nakazawa, 2022. "Constructing GDP Nowcasting Models Using Alternative Data," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 22-E-9, Bank of Japan.
    49. David Kohns & Arnab Bhattacharjee, 2020. "Nowcasting Growth using Google Trends Data: A Bayesian Structural Time Series Model," Papers 2011.00938, arXiv.org, revised May 2022.
    50. Jonas E. Arias & Minchul Shin, 2020. "Tracking U.S. Real GDP Growth During the Pandemic," Economic Insights, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, vol. 5(3), pages 9-14, September.
    51. Aprigliano, Valentina & Emiliozzi, Simone & Guaitoli, Gabriele & Luciani, Andrea & Marcucci, Juri & Monteforte, Libero, 2023. "The power of text-based indicators in forecasting Italian economic activity," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 791-808.
    52. Boriss Siliverstovs, 2021. "New York FED Staff Nowcasts and Reality: What Can We Learn about the Future, the Present, and the Past?," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-25, March.
    53. Tommaso Proietti & Alessandro Giovannelli, 2020. "Nowcasting Monthly GDP with Big Data: a Model Averaging Approach," CEIS Research Paper 482, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 12 May 2020.
    54. George Kapetanios & Fotis Papailias, 2018. "Big Data & Macroeconomic Nowcasting: Methodological Review," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers ESCoE DP-2018-12, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
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    56. Bhadury, Soumya & Ghosh, Saurabh & Kumar, Pankaj, 2019. "Nowcasting GDP Growth Using a Coincident Economic Indicator for India," MPRA Paper 96007, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    57. Esady, Vania, 2022. "Real and nominal effects of monetary shocks under time-varying disagreement," Bank of England working papers 1007, Bank of England.
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    59. Jiayi Luo & Cindy Long Yu, 2021. "Determining Number of Factors in Dynamic Factor Models Contributing to GDP Nowcasting," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(22), pages 1-23, November.
    60. Michael Anthonisz, 2023. "Nowcasting Key Australian Macroeconomic Variables," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 56(3), pages 371-380, September.
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  11. Richard K. Crump & Domenico Giannone & Sean Hundtofte, 2018. "Changing Risk-Return Profiles," Liberty Street Economics 20181004, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Cited by:

    1. Busetto, Filippo, 2024. "Asymmetric expectations of monetary policy," Bank of England working papers 1058, Bank of England.
    2. Nina Boyarchenko & Domenico Giannone & Or Shachar, 2018. "Flighty liquidity," Staff Reports 870, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    3. Martina Hengge, 2019. "Uncertainty as a Predictor of Economic Activity," IHEID Working Papers 19-2019, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    4. Richard K. Crump & João A. C. Santos, 2018. "Review of New York Fed studies on the effects of post-crisis banking reforms," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue 24-2, pages 71-90.

  12. Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Primiceri, Giorgio, 2017. "Economic Predictions with Big Data: The Illusion Of Sparsity," CEPR Discussion Papers 12256, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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    10. Francis X. Diebold & Minchul Shin & Boyuan Zhang, 2020. "On the Aggregation of Probability Assessments: Regularized Mixtures of Predictive Densities for Eurozone Inflation and Real Interest Rates," Papers 2012.11649, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2022.
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      • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
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    15. Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Primiceri, Giorgio, 2017. "Economic Predictions with Big Data: The Illusion Of Sparsity," CEPR Discussion Papers 12256, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    24. Gonzalo, Jesús & Pitarakis, Jean-Yves, 2020. "Out of sample predictability in predictive regressions with many predictor candidates," UC3M Working papers. Economics 31554, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    25. Cepni, Oguzhan & Clements, Michael P., 2024. "How local is the local inflation factor? Evidence from emerging European countries," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 160-183.
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    28. Smith, Simon C., 2021. "International stock return predictability," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    29. Paranhos, Livia, 2021. "Predicting Inflation with Neural Networks," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1344, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    30. Smith, Simon C., 2022. "Time-variation, multiple testing, and the factor zoo," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    31. Antonio Marsi, 2023. "Predicting European stock returns using machine learning," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 3(7), pages 1-25, July.
    32. Barigozzi, Matteo & Brownlees, Christian T., 2018. "Nets: network estimation for time series," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 90493, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    33. Kalamara, Eleni & Turrell, Arthur & Redl, Chris & Kapetanios, George & Kapadia, Sujit, 2020. "Making text count: economic forecasting using newspaper text," Bank of England working papers 865, Bank of England.
    34. Anastasios Evgenidis & Anastasios G. Malliaris, 2022. "Monetary policy, financial shocks and economic activity," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 59(2), pages 429-456, August.
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    39. Kohns, David & Bhattacharjee, Arnab, 2023. "Nowcasting growth using Google Trends data: A Bayesian Structural Time Series model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1384-1412.
    40. Jonas Krampe & Luca Margaritella, 2024. "Global bank network connectedness revisited: What is common, idiosyncratic and when?," Papers 2402.02482, arXiv.org.
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    118. Mariano Kulish & Nadine Yamout, 2024. "The Fiscal Arithmetic of a Slowdown in Trend Growth," Working Papers 308, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    119. Taylor, Alan M. & Davis, Josh & Fuenzalida, Cristian, 2019. "The Natural Rate Puzzle: Global Macro Trends and the Market-Implied r," CEPR Discussion Papers 14201, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    120. Jean-Marc Natal & Nicolas Stoffels, 2019. "Globalization, Market Power, and the Natural Interest Rate," IMF Working Papers 2019/095, International Monetary Fund.
    121. Michael T. Kiley & John M. Roberts, 2017. "Monetary Policy in a Low Interest Rate World," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 48(1 (Spring), pages 317-396.
    122. Ivan Aleksandrovich Kopytin & Nikolay Petrovich Pilnik & Ivan Pavlovich Stankevich, 2021. "Modelling Five Variables BVAR for Economic Policies and Growth in Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Russia: 2005 2020," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(5), pages 510-518.
    123. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2023. "The Rising Cost of Climate Change: Evidence from the Bond Market," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 105(5), pages 1255-1270, September.
    124. Drudi, Francesco & Moench, Emanuel & Holthausen, Cornelia & Weber, Pierre-François & Ferrucci, Gianluigi & Setzer, Ralph & Adao, Bernardino & Dées, Stéphane & Alogoskoufis, Spyros & Téllez, Mar Delgad, 2021. "Climate change and monetary policy in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 271, European Central Bank.
    125. Fu, Bowen, 2023. "Measuring the trend real interest rate in a data-rich environment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    126. Wang, Bin & Kwan, Yum K., 2021. "Measuring the natural rates of interest of OECD and BRICS economies: A time varying perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    127. Ruch,Franz Ulrich, 2021. "Neutral Real Interest Rates in Inflation Targeting Emerging and Developing Economies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9711, The World Bank.
    128. Jørgensen, Peter Lihn, 2023. "The global savings glut and the housing boom," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    129. Vázquez, Jesús & Aguilar, Pablo, 2021. "Adaptive learning with term structure information," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    130. Hess T. Chung & Etienne Gagnon & Taisuke Nakata & Matthias Paustian & Bernd Schlusche & James Trevino & Diego Vilán & Wei Zheng, 2019. "Monetary Policy Options at the Effective Lower Bound : Assessing the Federal Reserve's Current Policy Toolkit," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-003, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    131. Enrique Martínez García, 2020. "Get the Lowdown: The International Side of the Fall in the U.S. Natural Rate of Interest," Globalization Institute Working Papers 403, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, revised 20 Feb 2021.
    132. Bianca Barbaro & Giorgio Massari & Patrizio Tirelli, 2022. "Who killed business dynamism in the U.S.?," Working Papers 494, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Aug 2022.
    133. Yosuke Okazaki & Nao Sudo, 2018. "Natural Rate of Interest in Japan -- Measuring its size and identifying drivers based on a DSGE model --," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 18-E-6, Bank of Japan.
    134. Nicolo Maffei-Faccioli, 2020. "Identifying the Sources of the Slowdown in Growth: Demand vs. Supply," 2020 Papers pma2978, Job Market Papers.
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    136. Lucas Herrenbrueck, 2019. "Interest rates, moneyness, and the Fisher equation," 2019 Meeting Papers 1409, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    137. Lorenzo Bretscher & Andrea Tamoni & Aytek Malkhozov, 2019. "News Shocks and Asset Prices," 2019 Meeting Papers 100, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    138. Bofinger, Peter & Haas, Thomas, 2023. "R-star: A new approach to estimate the polar star of monetary policy," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 106, University of Würzburg, Department of Economics.
    139. Capraro, Santiago & Panico, Carlo & Torres-Gonzalez, Luis Daniel, 2021. "The persistent and generalised decline in the U. S. interest rates: an alternative interpretation," MPRA Paper 110181, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    140. Efrem Castelnuovo & Guay Lim & Giovanni Pellegrino, 2018. "Macroeconomic Policies in a Low Interest Rate Environment: Back to Keynes?," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 51(1), pages 70-86, March.
    141. Pablo Aguilar & Jesús Vázquez, 2018. "Term structure and real-time learning," Working Papers 1803, Banco de España.
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  14. S. Delle Chiaie & L. Ferrara & D. Giannone, 2017. "Common Factors of Commodity Prices," Working papers 645, Banque de France.

    Cited by:

    1. Hilde C. Bjørnland & Julia Zhulanova, 2019. "The shale oil boom and the U.S. economy: Spillovers and time-varying effects," Working Paper 2019/14, Norges Bank.
    2. Michał Rubaszek, 2019. "Forecasting crude oil prices with DSGE models," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2019_024, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    3. Allayioti, Anastasia & Venditti, Fabrizio, 2024. "The role of comovement and time-varying dynamics in forecasting commodity prices," Working Paper Series 2901, European Central Bank.
    4. Christiane Baumeister & Pierre Guérin, 2020. "A Comparison of Monthly Global Indicators for Forecasting Growth," NBER Working Papers 28014, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Di Pace, Federico & Juvenal, Luciana & Petrella, Ivan, 2021. "Terms-of-trade shocks are not all alike," Bank of England working papers 901, Bank of England.
    6. Baumeister, Christiane & Korobilis, Dimitris & Lee, Thomas K., 2020. "Energy Markets and Global Economic Conditions," CEPR Discussion Papers 14580, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Diaz, Elena Maria & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel, 2021. "GEA tracker: A daily indicator of global economic activity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    8. Florentina Paraschiv & Stine Marie Reese & Margrethe Ringkjøb Skjelstad, 2020. "Portfolio stress testing applied to commodity futures," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 203-240, June.
    9. Jakub Rybacki & Tamara Bińczak & Filip Kaczmarek, 2018. "Is HICP really harmonized? Problems with quality adjustments and new products," Collegium of Economic Analysis Annals, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis, issue 53, pages 97-116.
    10. Chiara Casoli & Riccardo (Jack) Lucchetti, 2021. "Permanent-Transitory decomposition of cointegrated time series via Dynamic Factor Models, with an application to commodity prices," Working Papers 2021.19, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    11. Thomas Hasenzagl & Filippo Pellegrino & Lucrezia Reichlin & Giovanni Ricco, 2020. "A Model of the Fed's View on Inflation," Papers 2006.14110, arXiv.org.
    12. Drachal, Krzysztof, 2019. "Forecasting prices of selected metals with Bayesian data-rich models," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    13. Ahmed, Rashad, 2020. "Global Flight-to-Safety Shocks," MPRA Paper 103501, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Laurent Ferrara & Aikaterina Karadimitropoulou & Athanasios Triantafyllou & Theodora Bermpei, 2022. "Commodity currencies revisited: The role of global commodity price uncertainty," Working Papers hal-04159791, HAL.
    15. Fry-McKibbin, Renée & McKinnon, Kate, 2023. "The evolution of commodity market financialization: Implications for portfolio diversification," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
    16. Qian, Chenqi & Zhang, Tianding & Li, Jie, 2023. "The impact of international commodity price shocks on macroeconomic fundamentals: Evidence from the US and China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    17. Dario Caldara & Michele Cavallo & Matteo Iacoviello, 2016. "Oil Price Elasticities and Oil Price Fluctuations," International Finance Discussion Papers 1173, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    18. Marek Kwas & Alessia Paccagnini & Michal Rubaszek, 2020. "Common factors and the dynamics of cereal prices. A forecasting perspective," CAMA Working Papers 2020-47, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    19. Marcel Prokopczuk & Chardin Wese Simen & Robert Wichmann, 2021. "The dynamics of commodity return comovements," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(10), pages 1597-1617, October.
    20. Theodora Bermpei & Aikaterini Karadimitropoulou & Athanasios Triantafyllou & Jebreel Alshalahi, 2023. "Does commodity price uncertainty matter for the cost of credit? Evidence from developing and advanced economies," Post-Print hal-04129400, HAL.
    21. Andrés Fernández & Andrés González & Diego Rodríguez, 2015. "Sharing a Ride on the Commodities Roller Coaster: Common Factors in Business Cycles of Emerging Economies," Borradores de Economia 915, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    22. Kilian, Lutz, 2022. "Facts and fiction in oil market modeling," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    23. Kilian, Lutz & Zhou, Xiaoqing, 2017. "Modeling Fluctuations in the Global Demand for Commodities," CEPR Discussion Papers 12357, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    24. Dudda, Tom L. & Klein, Tony & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Walther, Thomas, 2022. "Common Drivers of Commodity Futures?," QBS Working Paper Series 2022/05, Queen's University Belfast, Queen's Business School.
    25. Poncela Blanco, Maria Pilar & Ruiz Ortega, Esther & Miranda Gualdrón, Karen Alejandra, 2020. "Factor extraction using Kalman filter and smoothing: this is not just another survey," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 30644, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    26. Xia, Tian & Zhou, Hang, 2023. "Commodity terms of trade co-movement: Global and regional factors," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    27. Medina, Juan Pablo, 2021. "Mining development and macroeconomic spillovers in Chile," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    28. Lutz Kilian & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2020. "The Econometrics of Oil Market VAR Models," CESifo Working Paper Series 8153, CESifo.
    29. Ferreiro Javier Ojea, 2019. "Structural change in the link between oil and the European stock market: implications for risk management," Dependence Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 53-125, January.
    30. Matsumoto, Akito & Pescatori, Andrea & Wang, Xueliang, 2023. "Commodity prices and global economic activity," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    31. Diaz, Elena Maria & Pérez Quirós, Gabriel, 2020. "Daily tracker of global economic activity: a close-up of the COVID-19 pandemic," Working Paper Series 2505, European Central Bank.
    32. Vietha Devia SS, 2019. "Analysis of Crude Oil Price and Exchange Rate Volatility on Macroeconomic Variables (Case Study of Indonesia as Emerging Economic Country)," International Journal of Business and Administrative Studies, Professor Dr. Bahaudin G. Mujtaba, vol. 5(5), pages 257-271.
    33. Kruse, Robinson & Wegener, Christoph, 2020. "Time-varying persistence in real oil prices and its determinant," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    34. Venditti, Fabrizio & Veronese, Giovanni, 2020. "Global financial markets and oil price shocks in real time," Working Paper Series 2472, European Central Bank.
    35. Delle Chiaie, S., 2015. "The fall in oil prices in 2014: the role of supply and demand components," Rue de la Banque, Banque de France, issue 12, October..
    36. Fernandez, Viviana & Pastén-Henríquez, Boris & Tapia-Griñen, Pablo & Wagner, Rodrigo, 2023. "Commodity prices under the threat of operational disruptions: Labor strikes at copper mines," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
    37. Hyeongwoo Kim & Jisoo Son, 2023. "Forecasting Net Charge-Off Rates of Large U.S. Bank Holding Companies using Macroeconomic Latent Factors," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2023-02, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
    38. Anthony Garratt & Ivan Petrella, 2022. "Commodity prices and inflation risk," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(2), pages 392-414, March.
    39. Nguyen, BH & Zhang, Bo, 2022. "Forecasting oil Prices: can large BVARs help?," Working Papers 2022-04, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics.
    40. Antoine A. Djogbenou, 2024. "Identifying oil price shocks with global, developed, and emerging latent real economy activity factors," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(1), pages 128-149, January.
    41. Vásquez Cordano, Arturo L. & Zellou, Abdel M., 2020. "Super cycles in natural gas prices and their impact on Latin American energy and environmental policies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    42. Sun, Yiqun & Ji, Hao & Cai, Xiurong & Li, Jiangchen, 2023. "Joint extreme risk of energy prices-evidence from European energy markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    43. Kwas, Marek & Paccagnini, Alessia & Rubaszek, Michał, 2021. "Common factors and the dynamics of industrial metal prices. A forecasting perspective," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    44. Chiappini, Raphaël & Lahet, Delphine, 2020. "Exchange rate movements in emerging economies - Global vs regional factors in Asia," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    45. Schmidt, Torsten & Kirsch, Florian & Dirks, Maximilian W., 2021. "Kurzfristige Perspektiven der Rohstoffpreisentwicklung," RWI Projektberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, number 251878.
    46. Metallinos Pavlos, 2022. "Failure Case of Earned Value Method (EVM): The “Absurd” of the Use of Management & Contingency Reserves Budgeting," Baltic Journal of Real Estate Economics and Construction Management, Sciendo, vol. 10(1), pages 41-75, January.
    47. Rebeca Jiménez‐Rodríguez & Amalia Morales‐Zumaquero, 2020. "Impact of commodity prices on exchange rates in commodity‐exporting countries," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(7), pages 1868-1906, July.
    48. Nonejad, Nima, 2021. "The price of crude oil and (conditional) out-of-sample predictability of world industrial production," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
    49. Diaz, Elena Maria & Cunado, Juncal & de Gracia, Fernando Perez, 2023. "Commodity price shocks, supply chain disruptions and U.S. inflation," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PC).
    50. Nam, Kyungsik, 2021. "Investigating the effect of climate uncertainty on global commodity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    51. Bajraj, Gent & Lorca, Jorge & Wlasiuk, Juan M., 2023. "On foreign drivers of emerging markets fluctuations," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    52. Abiad, Abdul & Qureshi, Irfan A., 2023. "The macroeconomic effects of oil price uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    53. Doga Bilgin & Reinhard Ellwanger, 2017. "A Dynamic Factor Model for Commodity Prices," Staff Analytical Notes 17-12, Bank of Canada.
    54. Indrė Lapinskaitė & Algita Miečinskienė, 2019. "Assessment of the Impact of Hard Commodity Prices Changes on Inflation in European Union Countries," Central European Business Review, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2019(5), pages 18-35.
    55. Ahmed, Rashad, 2023. "Global commodity prices and macroeconomic fluctuations in a low interest rate environment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PB).
    56. Pilar Poncela & Eva Senra & Lya Paola Sierra, 2020. "Global vs Sectoral Factors and the Impact of the Financialization in Commodity Price Changes," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 859-879, September.
    57. Rausser, Gordon & Stuermer, Martin, 2020. "A Dynamic Analysis of Collusive Action: The Case of the World Copper Market, 1882-2016," MPRA Paper 104708, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    58. Claudia Wellenreuther, 2021. "Konjunkturschlaglicht: Rohstoffpreise: Superzyklus oder Aufschwung? [Economic headline: Commodity prices: Supercycle or upswing?]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 101(8), pages 663-664, August.

  15. Primiceri, Giorgio & Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele, 2016. "Priors for the Long Run," CEPR Discussion Papers 11261, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Alberto Caruso & Lucrezia Reichlin & Giovanni Ricco, 2019. "Financial and fiscal interaction in the euro area crisis: this time was different," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03403269, HAL.
    2. Tallman, Ellis W. & Zaman, Saeed, 2020. "Combining survey long-run forecasts and nowcasts with BVAR forecasts using relative entropy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 373-398.
    3. Bauwens, Luc & Chevillon, Guillaume & Laurent, Sébastien, 2023. "We modeled long memory with just one lag!," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 236(1).
    4. Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Domenico Giannone & Eric Qian & Argia M. Sbordone, 2021. "A Large Bayesian VAR of the United States Economy," Staff Reports 976, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    5. Budrys, Žymantas & Porqueddu, Mario & Sokol, Andrej, 2022. "Striking a bargain: narrative identification of wage bargaining shocks," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 98.
    6. Warne, Anders, 2023. "DSGE model forecasting: rational expectations vs. adaptive learning," Working Paper Series 2768, European Central Bank.
    7. Delle Monache, Davide & Petrella, Ivan & Venditti, Fabrizio, 2020. "Price dividend ratio and long-run stock returns: a score driven state space model," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1296, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    8. Lenza, Michele & Cimadomo, Jacopo & Giannone, Domenico & Monti, Francesca & Sokol, Andrej, 2021. "Nowcasting with Large Bayesian Vector Autoregressions," CEPR Discussion Papers 15854, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Loria, Francesca & Matthes, Christian & Wang, Mu-Chun, 2022. "Economic theories and macroeconomic reality," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 105-117.
    10. George Kapetanios & Massimiliano Marcellino & Fabrizio Venditti, 2019. "Large time‐varying parameter VARs: A nonparametric approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(7), pages 1027-1049, November.
    11. Paci, Lucia & Consonni, Guido, 2020. "Structural learning of contemporaneous dependencies in graphical VAR models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    12. Marek Jarocinski & Albert Marcet, 2013. "Priors about Observables in Vector Autoregressions," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 929.13, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).
    13. Bjarni G. Einarsson, 2024. "Online Monitoring of Policy Optimality," Economics wp95, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    14. Ciobotaru, Corina & Mazza, Christian, 2022. "Consistency and asymptotic normality of M-estimates of scatter on Grassmann manifolds," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    15. Felix Kapfhammer & Vegard H. Larsen & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2020. "Climate risk and commodity currencies," Working Paper 2020/18, Norges Bank.
    16. Marcela De Castro-Valderrama & Santiago Forero-Alvarado & Nicolas Moreno-Arias & Sara Naranjo-Saldarriaga, 2022. "Unravelling the Narratives Behind Macroeconomic Forecasts," IHEID Working Papers 18-2022, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    17. Nooman Rebei & Rashid Sbia, 2019. "Transitory and Permanent Shocks in the Global Market for Crude Oil," Working Papers halshs-02193700, HAL.
    18. Michele Lenza & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2022. "How to estimate a vector autoregression after March 2020," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(4), pages 688-699, June.
    19. Dimitris Korobilis., 2015. "Prior selection for panel vector autoregressions," Working Papers 2015_10, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    20. Ho, Paul, 2023. "Global robust Bayesian analysis in large models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 608-642.
    21. Jef Boeckx & Leonardo Iania & Joris Wauters, 2024. "Macroeconomic drivers of inflation expectations and inflation risk premia," Working Paper Research 446, National Bank of Belgium.
    22. Drago Bergholt & Francesco Furlanetto & Nicolò Maffei-Faccioli, 2022. "The Decline of the Labor Share: New Empirical Evidence," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(3), pages 163-198, July.
    23. Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2019. "Money, credit, monetary policy and the business cycle in the euro area: what has changed since the crisis?," Working Paper Series 2226, European Central Bank.
    24. Gergely Ganics & Florens Odendahl, 2019. "Bayesian VAR forecasts, survey information and structural change in the euro area," Working Papers 1948, Banco de España.
    25. Francesco Bianchi & Giovanni Nicolo & Dongho Song, 2023. "Inflation and Real Activity over the Business Cycle," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-038, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    26. Lieb, Lenard & Smeekes, Stephan, 2017. "Inference for Impulse Responses under Model Uncertainty," Research Memorandum 022, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).
    27. George ANTON, 2022. "The importance of demand, uncertainty and monetary policy shocks from the euro area for the Romanian economy," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(2(631), S), pages 25-38, Summer.
    28. Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Maximilian Gobel, 2021. "Arctic Amplification of Anthropogenic Forcing: A Vector Autoregressive Analysis," Working Papers 21-04, Chair in macroeconomics and forecasting, University of Quebec in Montreal's School of Management.
    29. Hartwig, Benny, 2022. "Bayesian VARs and prior calibration in times of COVID-19," Discussion Papers 52/2022, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    30. McAdam, Peter & Warne, Anders, 2020. "Density forecast combinations: the real-time dimension," Working Paper Series 2378, European Central Bank.
    31. Amaze Lusompa, 2021. "Local Projections, Autocorrelation, and Efficiency," Research Working Paper RWP 21-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    32. Angelini, Elena & Lalik, Magdalena & Lenza, Michele & Paredes, Joan, 2019. "Mind the gap: A multi-country BVAR benchmark for the Eurosystem projections," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1658-1668.
    33. Niko Hauzenberger & Michael Pfarrhofer & Luca Rossini, 2020. "Sparse time-varying parameter VECMs with an application to modeling electricity prices," Papers 2011.04577, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2023.
    34. Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Maximilian Gobel, 2020. "Arctic Amplification of Anthropogenic Forcing: A Vector Autoregressive Analysis," Papers 2005.02535, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2021.
    35. Marta Baltar Moreira Areosa & Wagner Piazza Gaglianone, 2023. "Anchoring Long-term VAR Forecasts Based On Survey Data and State-space Models," Working Papers Series 574, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    36. Wang, Dieter & Andrée, Bo Pieter Johannes & Chamorro, Andres Fernando & Spencer, Phoebe Girouard, 2022. "Transitions into and out of food insecurity: A probabilistic approach with panel data evidence from 15 countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    37. Karau, Sören, 2020. "Buried in the vaults of central banks: Monetary gold hoarding and the slide into the Great Depression," Discussion Papers 63/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    38. Prüser, Jan, 2023. "Data-based priors for vector error correction models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 209-227.
    39. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2016. "Large Vector Autoregressions with Stochastic Volatility and Flexible Priors," Working Papers (Old Series) 1617, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    40. Florian Huber & Gary Koop, 2023. "Subspace shrinkage in conjugate Bayesian vector autoregressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(4), pages 556-576, June.
    41. Dimitrios P. Louzis, 2019. "Steady‐state modeling and macroeconomic forecasting quality," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(2), pages 285-314, March.
    42. Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd E. & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2019. "Large Bayesian vector autoregressions with stochastic volatility and non-conjugate priors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 212(1), pages 137-154.
    43. Andrle, Michal & Plašil, Miroslav, 2018. "Econometrics with system priors," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 134-137.
    44. Wang,Dieter & Andree,Bo Pieter Johannes & Chamorro Elizondo,Andres Fernando & Spencer,Phoebe Girouard, 2020. "Stochastic Modeling of Food Insecurity," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9413, The World Bank.
    45. Kohns, David & Potjagailo, Galina, 2023. "Flexible Bayesian MIDAS: time‑variation, group‑shrinkage and sparsity," Bank of England working papers 1025, Bank of England.

  16. Adrian, Tobias & Boyarchenko, Nina & Giannone, Domenico, 2016. "Vulnerable Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 11583, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Aaron J. Amburgey & Michael W. McCracken, 2023. "On the real‐time predictive content of financial condition indices for growth," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(2), pages 137-163, March.
    2. Hyeongwoo Kim & Wen Shi & Hyun Hak Kim, 2020. "Forecasting financial stress indices in Korea: a factor model approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(6), pages 2859-2898, December.
    3. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Pierluigi Bologna & Maddalena Galardo, 2020. "Financial crises, macroprudential policy and the reliability of credit-to-GDP gaps," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 567, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    4. David Kohns & Tibor Szendrei, 2021. "Decoupling Shrinkage and Selection for the Bayesian Quantile Regression," Papers 2107.08498, arXiv.org.
    5. Lloyd, S. & Manuel, E. & Panchev, K., 2021. "Foreign Vulnerabilities, Domestic Risks: The Global Drivers of GDP-at-Risk," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2156, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    6. Claudia Pacella, 2020. "Essays on Forecasting," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/307579, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    7. Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Maxime Leroux & Dalibor Stevanovic & Stephane Surprenant, 2020. "How is Machine Learning Useful for Macroeconomic Forecasting?," Working Papers 20-01, Chair in macroeconomics and forecasting, University of Quebec in Montreal's School of Management, revised Aug 2020.
    8. Mr. Yan Carriere-Swallow & José Marzluf, 2021. "Macrofinancial Causes of Optimism in Growth Forecasts," IMF Working Papers 2021/275, International Monetary Fund.
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    1. Antolin-Diaz, Juan & Drechsel, Thomas & Petrella, Ivan, 2017. "Tracking the slowdown in long-run GDP growth," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 81869, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Luciani, Matteo & Pundit, Madhavi & Ramayandi, Arief & Veronese , Giovanni, 2015. "Nowcasting Indonesia," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 471, Asian Development Bank.
    3. Lenza, Michele & Cimadomo, Jacopo & Giannone, Domenico & Monti, Francesca & Sokol, Andrej, 2021. "Nowcasting with Large Bayesian Vector Autoregressions," CEPR Discussion Papers 15854, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Cascaldi-Garcia, Danilo & Ferreira, Thiago R.T. & Giannone, Domenico & Modugno, Michele, 2024. "Back to the present: Learning about the euro area through a now-casting model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 661-686.
    5. Drechsel, Thomas & Antolin-Diaz, Juan & Petrella, Ivan, 2023. "Advances in Nowcasting Economic Activity: The Role of Heterogeneous Dynamics and Fat Tails," CEPR Discussion Papers 17800, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. George Monokroussos & Yongchen Zhao, 2020. "Nowcasting in Real Time Using Popularity Priors," Working Papers 2020-01, Towson University, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2020.
    7. Brandyn Bok & Daniele Caratelli & Domenico Giannone & Argia M. Sbordone & Andrea Tambalotti, 2018. "Macroeconomic Nowcasting and Forecasting with Big Data," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 10(1), pages 615-643, August.
    8. Beetsma, Roel & Cimadomo, Jacopo & van Spronsen, Josha, 2022. "One Scheme Fits All: A Central Fiscal Capacity for the EMU Targeting Eurozone, National and Regional Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 16829, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. D'Agostino, Antonello & Cimadomo, Jacopo, 2015. "Combining time-variation and mixed-frequencies: an analysis of government spending multipliers in Italy," Working Paper Series 1856, European Central Bank.
    10. Marek Jarociński & Michele Lenza, 2018. "An Inflation‐Predicting Measure of the Output Gap in the Euro Area," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(6), pages 1189-1224, September.
    11. Petrella, Ivan & Santoro, Emiliano & Simonsen, Lasse P., 2019. "Time-varying Price Flexibility and Inflation Dynamics," EMF Research Papers 28, Economic Modelling and Forecasting Group.
    12. Nataliia Ostapenko, 2022. "Do output gap estimates improve inflation forecasts in Slovakia?," Working and Discussion Papers WP 4/2022, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    13. Daniel Wochner, 2020. "Dynamic Factor Trees and Forests – A Theory-led Machine Learning Framework for Non-Linear and State-Dependent Short-Term U.S. GDP Growth Predictions," KOF Working papers 20-472, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    14. Scott A. Brave & R. Andrew Butters & David Kelley, 2019. "A New “Big Data” Index of U.S. Economic Activity," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue 1, pages 1-30.
    15. Robert Lehmann & Magnus Reif & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2020. "ifoCAST: The New Forecast Standard of the ifo Institute," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 73(11), pages 31-39, November.

  18. Carlo Altavilla & Domenico Giannone & Michèle Modugno, 2014. "Low Frequency Effects of Macroeconomic News on Government Bond Yields," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2014-34, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.

    Cited by:

    1. Moench, Emanuel & Soofi-Siavash, Soroosh, 2022. "What moves treasury yields?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(3), pages 1016-1043.
    2. Benjamin Born & Zeno Enders & Manuel Menkhoff & Gernot J. Müller & Knut Niemann, 2023. "Firm Expectations and News: Micro v Macro," ifo Working Paper Series 400, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    3. Alberto Caruso & Laura Coroneo, 2023. "Does Real‐Time Macroeconomic Information Help to Predict Interest Rates?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(8), pages 2027-2059, December.
    4. François Gourio & Phuong Ngo, 2020. "Risk Premia at the ZLB: A Macroeconomic Interpretation," Working Paper Series WP 2020-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    5. Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia, 2016. "Unsurprising shocks: information, premia, and the monetary transmission," Bank of England working papers 626, Bank of England.
    6. Stavrakeva, Vania & Tang, Jenny, 2023. "A Fundamental Connection: Exchange Rates and Macroeconomic Expectations," CEPR Discussion Papers 18119, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Cascaldi-Garcia, Danilo & Ferreira, Thiago R.T. & Giannone, Domenico & Modugno, Michele, 2024. "Back to the present: Learning about the euro area through a now-casting model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 661-686.
    8. Banerjee, Ameet Kumar & Dionisio, Andreia & Pradhan, H.K. & Mahapatra, Biplab, 2021. "Hunting the quicksilver: Using textual news and causality analysis to predict market volatility," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    9. Ingomar Krohn & Vladyslav Sushko & Witit Synsatayakul, 2023. "Foreign investor feedback trading in an emerging financial market," BIS Working Papers 1154, Bank for International Settlements.
    10. Brandyn Bok & Daniele Caratelli & Domenico Giannone & Argia M. Sbordone & Andrea Tambalotti, 2018. "Macroeconomic Nowcasting and Forecasting with Big Data," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 10(1), pages 615-643, August.
    11. Philippe Andrade & Filippo Ferroni, 2016. "Delphic and Odyssean monetary policy shocks: Evidence from the euro-area," School of Economics Discussion Papers 1216, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    12. Christoph E. Boehm & Niklas Kroner, 2023. "The US, Economic News, and the Global Financial Cycle," International Finance Discussion Papers 1371, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    13. Dumitru, Ana-Maria & Urga, Giovanni, 2016. "Jumps and Information Asymmetry in the US Treasury Market," EconStor Preprints 130148, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    14. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Fabio Spagnolo & Nicola Spagnolo, 2014. "Macro News and Bond Yield Spreads in the Euro Area," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1413, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    15. Rasmus Fatum & Naoko Hara & Yohei Yamamoto, 2019. "Negative Interest Rate Policy and the Influence of Macroeconomic News on Yields," IMES Discussion Paper Series 19-E-02, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    16. Eguren-Martin, Fernando & McLaren, Nick, 2015. "How much do UK market interest rates respond to macroeconomic data news?," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 55(3), pages 259-272.
    17. Bruno Feunou & Jean-Sébastien Fontaine & Ingomar Krohn, 2022. "Real Exchange Rate Decompositions," Discussion Papers 2022-6, Bank of Canada.
    18. Bruno Feunou & Rodrigo Sekkel & Morvan Nongni Donfack, 2018. "Does US or Canadian Macro News Drive Canadian Bond Yields?," Staff Analytical Notes 2018-38, Bank of Canada.
    19. Wildmer Daniel Gregori & Wildmer Agnese Sacchi, 2016. "Has the Grexit news spilled over into euro area financial markets? The role of domestic political leaders, supranational executives and institutions," Mo.Fi.R. Working Papers 134, Money and Finance Research group (Mo.Fi.R.) - Univ. Politecnica Marche - Dept. Economic and Social Sciences.
    20. Goodell, John W. & Alon, Ilan & Chiaramonte, Laura & Dreassi, Alberto & Paltrinieri, Andrea & Piserà, Stefano, 2023. "Risk substitution in cryptocurrencies: Evidence from BRICS announcements," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    21. Michiel De Pooter & Giovanni Favara & Michele Modugno & Jason J. Wu, 2020. "Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Monetary Policy Surprises," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-032, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    22. Alberto Caruso, 2016. "The Impact of Macroeconomic News on the Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2016-32, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    23. De Pooter, Michiel & Favara, Giovanni & Modugno, Michele & Wu, Jason, 2021. "Reprint: Monetary policy uncertainty and monetary policy surprises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    24. Guerino Ardizzi & Simone Emiliozzi & Juri Marcucci & Libero Monteforte, 2019. "News and consumer card payments," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1233, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    25. Patrick Hirsch & Lars P. Feld & Ekkehard A. Köhler & Tobias Thomas, 2024. "“Whatever It Takes!” How Tonality of TV-News Affected Government Bond Yield Spreads during the European Debt Crisis," CESifo Working Paper Series 10980, CESifo.
    26. Julio E. Sandubete & León Beleña & Juan Carlos García-Villalobos, 2023. "Testing the Efficient Market Hypothesis and the Model-Data Paradox of Chaos on Top Currencies from the Foreign Exchange Market (FOREX)," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-29, January.
    27. Kerssenfischer, Mark & Schmeling, Maik, 2022. "What moves markets?," Discussion Papers 16/2022, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    28. Caruso, Alberto, 2019. "Macroeconomic news and market reaction: Surprise indexes meet nowcasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1725-1734.
    29. Guido Bulligan & Davide Delle Monache, 2018. "Financial markets effects of ECB unconventional monetary policy announcements," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 424, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    30. Schlepper, Kathi, 2016. "High-frequency trading in the Bund futures market," Discussion Papers 15/2016, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    31. Yunus, Nafeesa, 2023. "Long-run and short-run impact of the U.S. economy on stock, bond and housing markets: An evaluation of U.S. and six major economies," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 211-232.
    32. Pilar Poncela & Eva Senra, 2017. "Measuring uncertainty and assessing its predictive power in the euro area," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 165-182, August.
    33. André Marine Charlotte & Dai Meixing, 2020. "The limits to robust monetary policy in a small open economy with learning agents," Working Papers 2020-12, Banco de México.
    34. Gregori, Wildmer Daniel & Sacchi, Agnese, 2019. "Has the Grexit news affected euro area financial markets?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 71-84.
    35. Luca Brugnolini & Antonello D’Agostino & Alex Tagliabracci, 2021. "Is Anything Predictable in Market-Based Surprises?," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 7(3), pages 387-410, November.
    36. Sreejata Banerjee & Divya Sinha, 2015. "Effect of Macroeconomic News Releases on Bond Yields in India China and Japan," Working Papers 2015-125, Madras School of Economics,Chennai,India.

  19. Giannone, Domenico & Monti , Francesca & Reichlin , Lucrezia, 2014. "Exploiting the monthly data flow in structural forecasting," Bank of England working papers 509, Bank of England.

    Cited by:

    1. David Kohns & Arnab Bhattacharjee, 2019. "Interpreting Big Data in the Macro Economy: A Bayesian Mixed Frequency Estimator," CEERP Working Paper Series 010, Centre for Energy Economics Research and Policy, Heriot-Watt University.
    2. Lenza, Michele & Cimadomo, Jacopo & Giannone, Domenico & Monti, Francesca & Sokol, Andrej, 2021. "Nowcasting with Large Bayesian Vector Autoregressions," CEPR Discussion Papers 15854, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Bjarni G. Einarsson, 2024. "Online Monitoring of Policy Optimality," Economics wp95, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    4. Todd E. Clark & Fabian Krueger & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2015. "Using Entropic Tilting to Combine BVAR Forecasts with External Nowcasts," Working Papers (Old Series) 1439, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    5. Boriss Siliverstovs, 2019. "Assessing Nowcast Accuracy of US GDP Growth in Real Time: The Role of Booms and Busts," Working Papers 2019/01, Latvijas Banka.
    6. Norberto Rodríguez-Niño & Alejandra Ramírez-Ramírez, 2018. "Metodologías semi-estructurales para estimar la Inflación básica mensual en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 1040, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    7. Kohns, David & Bhattacharjee, Arnab, 2023. "Nowcasting growth using Google Trends data: A Bayesian Structural Time Series model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1384-1412.
    8. Stylianos Asimakopoulos & Marco Lorusso & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2023. "A Bayesian DSGE Approach to Modelling Cryptocurrency"," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 1012-1035, December.
    9. Christensen, Bent Jesper & Posch, Olaf & van der Wel, Michel, 2016. "Estimating dynamic equilibrium models using mixed frequency macro and financial data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 194(1), pages 116-137.
    10. Boneva, Lena & Fawcett, Nicholas & Masolo, Riccardo M. & Waldron, Matt, 2019. "Forecasting the UK economy: Alternative forecasting methodologies and the role of off-model information," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 100-120.
    11. David Kohns & Arnab Bhattacharjee, 2020. "Nowcasting Growth using Google Trends Data: A Bayesian Structural Time Series Model," Papers 2011.00938, arXiv.org, revised May 2022.
    12. Meyer-Gohde, Alexander & Shabalina, Ekaterina, 2022. "Estimation and forecasting using mixed-frequency DSGE models," IMFS Working Paper Series 175, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    13. Jack Fosten & Daniel Gutknecht, 2021. "Horizon confidence sets," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(2), pages 667-692, August.

  20. Giannone, Domenico & Banbura, Marta & Lenza, Michele, 2014. "Conditional forecasts and scenario analysis with vector autoregressions for large cross-sections," CEPR Discussion Papers 9931, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Alberto Caruso & Lucrezia Reichlin & Giovanni Ricco, 2019. "Financial and fiscal interaction in the euro area crisis: this time was different," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03403269, HAL.
    2. Anastasios Evgenidis & Stephanos Papadamou, 2021. "The impact of unconventional monetary policy in the euro area. Structural and scenario analysis from a Bayesian VAR," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 5684-5703, October.
    3. Antonello D'Agostino & Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Michele Modugno, 2015. "Nowcasting Business Cycles: a Bayesian Approach to Dynamic Heterogeneous Factor Models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-66, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Tallman, Ellis W. & Zaman, Saeed, 2020. "Combining survey long-run forecasts and nowcasts with BVAR forecasts using relative entropy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 373-398.
    5. Gefang, Deborah & Koop, Gary & Poon, Aubrey, 2023. "Forecasting using variational Bayesian inference in large vector autoregressions with hierarchical shrinkage," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 346-363.
    6. Deborah Gefang & Gary Koop & Aubrey Poon, 2019. "Variational Bayesian inference in large Vector Autoregressions with hierarchical shrinkage," CAMA Working Papers 2019-08, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    7. Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia & Ricco, Giovanni, 2018. "Bayesian vector autoregressions," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 87393, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    8. Edward S. Knotek & Saeed Zaman, 2017. "Financial Nowcasts and Their Usefulness in Macroeconomic Forecasting," Working Papers (Old Series) 1702, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    9. Del Negro, Marco & Lenza, Michele & Primiceri, Giorgio E. & Tambalotti, Andrea, 2020. "What’s up with the Phillips Curve?," Working Paper Series 2435, European Central Bank.
    10. Berg Tim Oliver, 2017. "Forecast accuracy of a BVAR under alternative specifications of the zero lower bound," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(2), pages 1-29, April.
    11. Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Domenico Giannone & Eric Qian & Argia M. Sbordone, 2021. "A Large Bayesian VAR of the United States Economy," Staff Reports 976, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    12. Salman Huseynov, 2021. "Long and short memory in dynamic term structure models," CREATES Research Papers 2021-15, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    13. Simona Delle Chiaie & Laurent Ferrara & Domenico Giannone, 2022. "Common factors of commodity prices," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(3), pages 461-476, April.
    14. Joshua C.C. Chan & Eric Eisenstat & Chenghan Hou & Gary Koop, 2018. "Composite likelihood methods for large Bayesian VARs with stochastic volatility," CAMA Working Papers 2018-26, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    15. Michael W. McCracken & Joseph T. McGillicuddy & Michael T. Owyang, 2022. "Binary Conditional Forecasts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(3), pages 1246-1258, June.
    16. Matteo Barigozzi & Matteo Luciani, 2017. "Common Factors, Trends, and Cycles in Large Datasets," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-111, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    17. Antonio M. Conti & Andrea Nobili & Federico M. Signoretti, 2018. "Bank capital constraints, lending supply and economic activity," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1199, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    18. Lenza, Michele & Cimadomo, Jacopo & Giannone, Domenico & Monti, Francesca & Sokol, Andrej, 2021. "Nowcasting with Large Bayesian Vector Autoregressions," CEPR Discussion Papers 15854, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    19. Petrella, Ivan & Antolin-Diaz, Juan & Rubio-Ramírez, Juan Francisco, 2018. "Structural Scenario Analysis with SVARs," CEPR Discussion Papers 12579, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    20. Conti, Antonio M., 2017. "Has the FED Fallen behind the Curve? Evidence from VAR models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 164-168.
    21. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2014. "Evaluating Conditional Forecasts from Vector Autoregressions," Working Papers 2014-25, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    22. Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Primiceri, Giorgio, 2017. "Economic Predictions with Big Data: The Illusion Of Sparsity," CEPR Discussion Papers 12256, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    23. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Aastveit, Knut Are & Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd, 2016. "Have Standard VARs Remained Stable Since the Crisis?," CEPR Discussion Papers 11558, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    24. Pestova, Anna & Mamonov, Mikhail, 2019. "Should we care? The economic effects of financial sanctions on the Russian economy," BOFIT Discussion Papers 13/2019, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    25. A. Colangelo & D. Giannone & M. Lenza & H. Pill & L. Reichlin, 2017. "The national segmentation of euro area bank balance sheets during the financial crisis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 247-265, August.
    26. Mehdiyev, Mehdi & Ahmadov, Vugar & Huseynov, Salman & Mammadov, Fuad, 2015. "Ölkə iqtisadiyyatı üzrə göstəricilərin modelləşdirilməsi və proqnozlaşdırılması: problemlər və praktiki çətinliklər [Modeling and forecasting of macroeconomic variables of the national economy: pro," MPRA Paper 63517, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    27. Gergely Ganics & Eva Ortega, 2019. "Banco de España macroeconomic projections: comparison with an econometric model," Economic Bulletin, Banco de España, issue SEP.
    28. Zheng, Tingguo & Ye, Shiqi & Hong, Yongmiao, 2023. "Fast estimation of a large TVP-VAR model with score-driven volatilities," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    29. Rodríguez, Aldo, 2020. "Estimación Bayesiana de un Modelo de Economía Abierta con Sector Bancario," Dynare Working Papers 52, CEPREMAP.
    30. Kevin Moran & Dalibor Stevanovic & Stephane Surprenant, 2024. "Risk Scenarios and Macroeconomic Forecasts," Working Papers 24-01, Chair in macroeconomics and forecasting, University of Quebec in Montreal's School of Management, revised Apr 2024.
    31. Michele Lenza & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2022. "How to estimate a vector autoregression after March 2020," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(4), pages 688-699, June.
    32. Bańbura, Marta & Belousova, Irina & Bodnár, Katalin & Tóth, Máté Barnabás, 2023. "Nowcasting employment in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2815, European Central Bank.
    33. Michal Franta & David Havrlant & Marek Rusnak, 2014. "Forecasting Czech GDP Using Mixed-Frequency Data Models," Working Papers 2014/08, Czech National Bank.
    34. Elena Deryugina & Alexey Ponomarenko, 2015. "A large Bayesian vector autoregression model for Russia," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps1, Bank of Russia.
    35. Ngomba Bodi, Francis Ghislain & Bikai, Landry, 2019. "Les prévisions conditionnelles sont-elles plus précises que les prévisions inconditionnelles dans les projections de croissance et d’inflation en zone CEMAC ? [Should conditional forecasts of infla," MPRA Paper 116432, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    36. Berg, Tim O. & Henzel, Steffen R., 2015. "Point and density forecasts for the euro area using Bayesian VARs," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1067-1095.
    37. Kenichiro McAlinn & Knut Are Aastveit & Jouchi Nakajima & Mike West, 2019. "Multivariate Bayesian Predictive Synthesis in Macroeconomic Forecasting," Working Paper 2019/2, Norges Bank.
    38. Carlo Altavilla & Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza, 2014. "The Financial and Macroeconomic Effects of the OMT Announcements," CSEF Working Papers 352, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    39. Bańbura, Marta & Leiva-León, Danilo & Menz, Jan-Oliver, 2021. "Do inflation expectations improve model-based inflation forecasts?," Discussion Papers 48/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    40. Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George, 2023. "Oil price assumptions for macroeconomic policy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    41. Sebastian Ankargren & Paulina Jon'eus, 2019. "Simulation smoothing for nowcasting with large mixed-frequency VARs," Papers 1907.01075, arXiv.org.
    42. Itkonen, Juha & Juvonen, Petteri, 2017. "Nowcasting the Finnish economy with a large Bayesian vector autoregressive model," BoF Economics Review 6/2017, Bank of Finland.
    43. Matteo Barigozzi, 2023. "Quasi Maximum Likelihood Estimation of High-Dimensional Factor Models: A Critical Review," Papers 2303.11777, arXiv.org, revised May 2024.
    44. Anastasios Evgenidis & Anastasios G. Malliaris, 2022. "Monetary policy, financial shocks and economic activity," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 59(2), pages 429-456, August.
    45. Michael W. McCracken & Joseph T. McGillicuddy, 2019. "An empirical investigation of direct and iterated multistep conditional forecasts," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(2), pages 181-204, March.
    46. Monica Defend & Aleksey Min & Lorenzo Portelli & Franz Ramsauer & Francesco Sandrini & Rudi Zagst, 2021. "Quantifying Drivers of Forecasted Returns Using Approximate Dynamic Factor Models for Mixed-Frequency Panel Data," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(1), pages 1-35, February.
    47. Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2019. "Money, credit, monetary policy and the business cycle in the euro area: what has changed since the crisis?," Working Paper Series 2226, European Central Bank.
    48. Timo Wollmershäuser & Marcell Göttert & Christian Grimme & Stefan Lautenbacher & Robert Lehmann & Sebastian Link & Manuel Menkhoff & Sascha Möhrle & Ann-Christin Rathje & Magnus Reif & Pauliina Sandqv, 2020. "ifo Economic Forecast Winter 2020: The Coronavirus Strikes Back – Another Lockdown Slows the Economy for a Second Time," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 73(Sonderaus), pages 03-61, December.
    49. Lenza, Michele, 2023. "Inflation and wage growth since the pandemic: A comment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    50. Camacho, Maximo & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel & Pacce, Matías, 2020. "Spillover effects in international business cycles," Working Paper Series 2484, European Central Bank.
    51. Osbat, Chiara & D'Agostino, Antonello & Modugno, Michele, 2016. "A global trade model for the euro area," Working Paper Series 1986, European Central Bank.
    52. Liudmila Kitrar & Tamara Lipkind, 2021. "Assessment Of GDP Growth After The Corona Crisis Using The Results Of Business And Consumer Surveys," HSE Working papers WP BRP 118/STI/2021, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    53. Gergely Ganics & Florens Odendahl, 2019. "Bayesian VAR forecasts, survey information and structural change in the euro area," Working Papers 1948, Banco de España.
    54. Zakipour-Saber, Shayan, 2019. "Forecasting in the euro area: The role of the US long rate," Economic Letters 5/EL/19, Central Bank of Ireland.
    55. Francesco Bianchi & Giovanni Nicolo & Dongho Song, 2023. "Inflation and Real Activity over the Business Cycle," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-038, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    56. McAdam, Peter & Warne, Anders, 2020. "Density forecast combinations: the real-time dimension," Working Paper Series 2378, European Central Bank.
    57. Olga Korotkikh, 2020. "A Multi-Country BVAR Model for the External Sector," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 79(4), pages 98-112, December.
    58. Sebastian Ankargren & Mårten Bjellerup & Hovick Shahnazarian, 2017. "The importance of the financial system for the real economy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(4), pages 1553-1586, December.
    59. D’Amuri, Francesco & De Philippis, Marta & Guglielminetti, Elisa & Lo Bello, Salvatore, 2022. "Slack and prices during Covid-19: Accounting for labor market participation," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    60. Jarociński, Marek & Bobeica, Elena, 2017. "Missing disinflation and missing inflation: the puzzles that aren't," Working Paper Series 2000, European Central Bank.
    61. Ángel Estrada & Luis Guirola & Iván Kataryniuk & Jaime Martínez-Martín, 2020. "The use of BVARs in the analysis of emerging economies," Occasional Papers 2001, Banco de España.
    62. Hajer Ben Romdhane & Nahed Ben Tanfous, 2017. "Conditional FAVAR and scenario analysis for a large data: case of Tunisia," IHEID Working Papers 15-2017, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    63. Martina Hengge & Seton Leonard, 2017. "Factor Models for Non-Stationary Series: Estimates of Monthly U.S. GDP," IHEID Working Papers 13-2017, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    64. Christian Glocker & Serguei Kaniovski, 2022. "Macroeconometric forecasting using a cluster of dynamic factor models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(1), pages 43-91, July.
    65. Angelini, Elena & Lalik, Magdalena & Lenza, Michele & Paredes, Joan, 2019. "Mind the gap: A multi-country BVAR benchmark for the Eurosystem projections," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1658-1668.
    66. William W. Chow & Michael K. Fung, 2021. "The effects of macroprudential policy on Hong Kong’s housing market: a multivariate ordered probit-augmented vector autoregressive approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(2), pages 633-660, February.
    67. Cristina Manteu & Sara Serra, 2017. "Impact of uncertainty measures on the Portuguese economy," Working Papers w201709, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    68. Stefan Laseen & Marzie Taheri Sanjani, 2016. "Did the Global Financial Crisis Break the U.S. Phillips Curve?," IMF Working Papers 2016/126, International Monetary Fund.
    69. João Barata R.B. Barroso & Fernanda Nechio, 2020. "Financial market development, monetary policy and financial stability in Brazil," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Financial market development, monetary policy and financial stability in emerging market economies, volume 113, pages 55-65, Bank for International Settlements.
    70. Chalmovianský, Jakub & Porqueddu, Mario & Sokol, Andrej, 2020. "Weigh(t)ing the basket: aggregate and component-based inflation forecasts for the euro area," Working Paper Series 2501, European Central Bank.
    71. Pestova, Anna (Пестова, Анна) & Mamonov, Mikhail (Мамонов, Михаил), 2016. "Estimating the Influence of Different Shocks on Macroeconomic Indicators and Developing Conditional Forecasts on the Basis of BVAR Model for the Russian Economy [Оценка Влияния Различных Шоков На Д," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 4, pages 56-92, August.
    72. Hauber, Philipp, 2021. "How useful is external information from professional forecasters? Conditional forecasts in large factor models," EconStor Preprints 251469, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    73. Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Matteo Luciani & Michele Modugno, 2023. "Lessons from Nowcasting GDP across the World," International Finance Discussion Papers 1385, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    74. Gustavo Adler & Sebastian Sosa, 2016. "External Factors in Debt Sustainability Analysis: An Application to Latin America?," Journal of Banking and Financial Economics, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management, vol. 1(5), pages 81-120, June.
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    83. Barroso, João Barata R.B. & da Silva, Luiz A. Pereira & Sales, Adriana Soares, 2016. "Quantitative easing and related capital flows into Brazil: Measuring its effects and transmission channels through a rigorous counterfactual evaluation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 102-122.
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    Cited by:

    1. Richhild Moessner, 2018. "Effects of asset purchases and financial stability measures on term premia in the euro area," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 489, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    2. Matthieu Darracq Paries & Pascal Jacquinot & Niki Papadopoulou, 2016. "Synopsis of the Euro Area Financial Crisis," Working Papers 2016-8, Central Bank of Cyprus.
    3. Anastasios Evgenidis & Stephanos Papadamou, 2021. "The impact of unconventional monetary policy in the euro area. Structural and scenario analysis from a Bayesian VAR," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 5684-5703, October.
    4. Moro, Beniamino, 2019. "Interpreting TARGET balances in the European Monetary Union: A critical review of the literature," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    5. Arghyrou, Michael G & Gadea, Mar a Dolores, 2019. "Private bank deposits and macro/fiscal risk in the euro-area," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2019/6, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    6. Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Kühl, Michael, 2016. "The optimal conduct of central bank asset purchases," Working Paper Series 1973, European Central Bank.
    7. Chiara Perillo & Stefano Battiston, 2020. "Financialization and unconventional monetary policy: a financial-network analysis," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 30(5), pages 1385-1428, November.
    8. Christophe Blot & Jérôme Creel & Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2015. "The QE experience: worth a try?," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03470201, HAL.
    9. Florian Huber & Maria Teresa Punzi, 2016. "International Housing Markets, Unconventional Monetary Policy and the Zero Lower Bound," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp216, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    10. Alessandro Dovis & Luigi Bocola, 2015. "Indeterminacy in Sovereign Debt Markets: An Empirical Investigation," 2015 Meeting Papers 694, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    11. Jäger, Jannik & Grigoriadis, Theocharis, 2016. "Soft budget constraints, European Central Banking and the financial crisis," Discussion Papers 2016/7, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    12. Demir, Ishak & Eroglu, Burak A. & Yildirim-Karaman, Secil, 2021. "Heterogeneous effects of unconventional monetary policy on bond yields across the euro area," LEAF Working Paper Series 19-06, University of Lincoln, Lincoln International Business School, Lincoln Economics and Finance Research Group (LEAF), revised 2021.
    13. McQuade, Peter & Falagiarda, Matteo & Tirpák, Marcel, 2015. "Spillovers from the ECB's non-standard monetary policies on non-euro area EU countries: evidence from an event-study analysis," Working Paper Series 1869, European Central Bank.
    14. De Grauwe, Paul & Ji, Yuemei, 2015. "Has the Eurozone become less fragile? Some empirical tests," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 404-414.
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    18. Christophe Blot & Jérôme Creel & Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2020. "The role of ECB monetary policy and financial stress on Eurozone sovereign yields," Post-Print hal-02160378, HAL.
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    21. Antonio M. Conti & Andrea Nobili & Federico M. Signoretti, 2018. "Bank capital constraints, lending supply and economic activity," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1199, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
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    23. Christophe Blot & Jérôme Creel & Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2015. "Que peut-on attendre de l'assouplissement quantitatif de la BCE ?," Post-Print hal-03459898, HAL.
    24. Afonso, A & Arghyrou, MG & Gadea, MD & Kontonikas, A, 2017. ""Whatever it takes" to resolve the European sovereign debt crisis? Bond pricing regime switches and monetary policy effects," Essex Finance Centre Working Papers 20417, University of Essex, Essex Business School.
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    26. Lenza, Michele & Cimadomo, Jacopo & Giannone, Domenico & Monti, Francesca & Sokol, Andrej, 2021. "Nowcasting with Large Bayesian Vector Autoregressions," CEPR Discussion Papers 15854, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    27. António Afonso & Jorge Silva, 2019. "Effects of euro area monetary policy on institutional sectors: the case of Portugal," Cuadernos de Economía - Spanish Journal of Economics and Finance, Asociación Cuadernos de Economía, vol. 42(120), pages 219-236, Diciembre.
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    29. Andrea Zaghini, 2017. "The CSPP at work: yield heterogeneity and the portfolio rebalancing channel," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1157, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
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    31. Canova, Fabio & Bluwstein, Kristina, 2015. "Beggar-thy-neighbor? The international effects of ECB unconventional monetary policy measures," CEPR Discussion Papers 10856, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    32. Petrella, Ivan & Antolin-Diaz, Juan & Rubio-Ramírez, Juan Francisco, 2018. "Structural Scenario Analysis with SVARs," CEPR Discussion Papers 12579, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    33. Lo Duca, Marco & Koban, Anne & Basten, Marisa & Bengtsson, Elias & Klaus, Benjamin & Kusmierczyk, Piotr & Lang, Jan Hannes & Detken, Carsten & Peltonen, Tuomas, 2017. "A new database for financial crises in European countries," Occasional Paper Series 194, European Central Bank.
    34. de Grauwe, Paul & Ji, Yuemei, 2015. "Market sentiments and the sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone," FinMaP-Working Papers 28, Collaborative EU Project FinMaP - Financial Distortions and Macroeconomic Performance: Expectations, Constraints and Interaction of Agents.
    35. Hülsewig, Oliver & Rottmann, Horst, 2021. "Euro area periphery countries' fiscal policy and monetary policy surprises," Weidener Diskussionspapiere 81, University of Applied Sciences Amberg-Weiden (OTH).
    36. Christophe Blot & Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2018. "Reforming the European Central Bank," Post-Print hal-03471743, HAL.
    37. Hülsewig, Oliver & Steinbach, Armin, 2021. "Monetary financing and fiscal discipline," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    38. Lucas Hafemann & Peter Tillmann, 2017. "The Aggregate and Country-Specific Effectiveness of ECB Policy: Evidence from an External Instruments (VAR) Approach," European Economy - Discussion Papers 063, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
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    40. Frederik Neugebauer, 2020. "ECB Announcements and Stock Market Volatility," WHU Working Paper Series - Economics Group 20-02, WHU - Otto Beisheim School of Management.
    41. Martin Mandler & Michael Scharnagl & Ute Volz, 2022. "Heterogeneity in Euro Area Monetary Policy Transmission: Results from a Large Multicountry BVAR Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(2-3), pages 627-649, March.
    42. Nikolay Hristov & Oliver Hülsewig & Johann Scharler, 2020. "Unconventional Monetary Policy Shocks in the Euro Area and the Sovereign-Bank Nexus," CESifo Working Paper Series 8178, CESifo.
    43. Ugo Albertazzi & Andrea Nobili & Federico M. Signoretti, 2021. "The Bank Lending Channel of Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(2-3), pages 261-299, March.
    44. Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2017. "Euro area government bonds – Fragmentation and contagion during the sovereign debt crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 26-44.
    45. Angela Capolongo & Claudia Pacella, 2019. "Forecasting inflation in the euro area: countries matter!," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1224, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    46. Georgios Georgiadis & Johannes Grab, 2015. "Global financial market impact of the announcement of the ECB's extended asset purchase programme," Globalization Institute Working Papers 232, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    47. Elien Meuleman & Rudi Vander Vennet, 2022. "Macroprudential Policy, Monetary Policy, and Euro Zone Bank Risk," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 18(4), pages 1-52, October.
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    49. Carsten M. Stann & Theocharis N. Grigoriadis, 2020. "Monetary Policy Transmission to Russia and Eastern Europe," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 62(2), pages 303-353, June.
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    51. Debrun, Xavier & Masuch, Klaus & Ferrero, Guiseppe & Vansteenkiste, Isabel & Ferdinandusse, Marien & von Thadden, Leopold & Hauptmeier, Sebastian & Alloza, Mario & Derouen, Chloé & Bańkowski, Krzyszto, 2021. "Monetary-fiscal policy interactions in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 273, European Central Bank.
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    1. Francesco Paolo Mongelli & Gonzalo Camba-Mendez, 2018. "The Financial Crisis and Policy Responses in Europe (2007–2018)," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 60(4), pages 531-558, December.
    2. Roy Havemann & Henk Janse van Vuuren & Daan Steenkamp & Rossouw van Jaarsveld, 2022. "The bond market impact of the South African Reserve Bank bond purchase programme," Working Papers 11024, South African Reserve Bank.
    3. Atsushi Inoue & Barbara Rossi, 2019. "A New Approach to Measuring Economic Policy Shocks, with an Application to Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policy," Working Papers 1082, Barcelona School of Economics.
    4. Christophe Blot & Jérôme Creel & Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2015. "The QE experience: worth a try?," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03470201, HAL.
    5. McQuade, Peter & Falagiarda, Matteo & Tirpák, Marcel, 2015. "Spillovers from the ECB's non-standard monetary policies on non-euro area EU countries: evidence from an event-study analysis," Working Paper Series 1869, European Central Bank.
    6. Qadan, Mahmoud & Zoua’bi, Maher, 2019. "Financial attention and the demand for information," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    7. Jérôme Creel & Paul Hubert & Mathilde Viennot, 2016. "The effect of ECB monetary policies on interest rates and volumes," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(47), pages 4477-4501, October.
    8. Neely, Christopher J., 2022. "How persistent are unconventional monetary policy effects?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    9. Christophe Blot & Jérôme Creel & Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2015. "Que peut-on attendre de l'assouplissement quantitatif de la BCE ?," Post-Print hal-03459898, HAL.
    10. Atsushi Inoue & Barbara Rossi, 2018. "The effects of conventional and unconventional monetary policy on exchange rates," Economics Working Papers 1639, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    11. Pierpaolo Benigno & Paolo Canofari & Giovanni Bartolomeo & Marcello Messori, 2022. "The European Monetary Policy Responses During the Pandemic Crisis," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 33(4), pages 657-675, September.
    12. Dario Caldara & Etienne Gagnon & Enrique Martínez García & Christopher J. Neely, 2020. "Monetary Policy and Economic Performance since the Financial Crisis," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-065, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    13. Böhl, Gregor & Goy, Gavin & Strobel, Felix, 2020. "A structural investigation of quantitative easing," IMFS Working Paper Series 142, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    14. Capasso, Salvatore & D'Uva, Marcella & Fiorelli, Cristiana & Napolitano, Oreste, 2023. "Cross-border Italian sovereign risk transmission in EMU countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
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    16. Ugo Panizza & Charles Wyplosz, 2018. "The Folk Theorem of Decreasing Effectiveness of Monetary Policy: What Do the Data Say?," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 77(1), pages 71-107, March.
    17. Ioannou, Demosthenes & Pagliari, Maria Sole & Stracca, Livio, 2024. "The international impact of a fragile EMU," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    18. Carlo Altavilla & Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza, 2014. "The Financial and Macroeconomic Effects of the OMT Announcements," CSEF Working Papers 352, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    19. Enders, Zeno & Hünnekes, Franziska & Müller, Gernot J., 2019. "Monetary Policy Announcements and Expectations: Evidence from German Firms," Working Papers 10, German Research Foundation's Priority Programme 1859 "Experience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour", Humboldt University Berlin.
    20. Zhou, Siwen, 2018. "Measuring the Signaling Effect of the ECB’s Asset Purchase Programme at the Effective Lower Bound," MPRA Paper 87084, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Ahundjanov, Behzod B. & Akhundjanov, Sherzod B. & Okhunjanov, Botir B., 2021. "Risk perception and oil and gasoline markets under COVID-19," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    22. Thomas B. King, 2016. "Expectation and Duration at the Effective Lower Bound," Working Paper Series WP-2016-21, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    23. Eda Gulsen & Hakan Kara, 2020. "Formation of inflation expectations: Does macroeconomic and policy environment matter?," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 2017, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    24. Luiz Renato Lima & Lucas Lúcio Godeiro & Mohammed Mohsin, 2021. "Time-Varying Dictionary and the Predictive Power of FED Minutes," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 57(1), pages 149-181, January.
    25. Fasianos, Apostolos & Evgenidis, Anastasios, 2020. "Unconventional Monetary Policy and Wealth Inequalities in Great Britain," CEPR Discussion Papers 14656, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    26. Ioannou, Demosthenes & Stracca, Livio & Pagliari, Maria Sole, 2020. "The international dimension of an incomplete EMU," Working Paper Series 2459, European Central Bank.
    27. Ioannou Demosthenes & Pagliari Maria Sole & Stracca Livio, 2020. "The international dimension of a fragile EMU," Working papers 795, Banque de France.
    28. Christian Beer & Christian Alexander Belabed & Andreas Breitenfellner & Christian Ragacs & Beat Weber, 2017. "EU integration and its impact on Austria," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q1/2017, pages 1-38.
    29. Hakan Yilmazkuday, 2021. "Unequal Unemployment Effects of COVID-19 and Monetary Policy across U.S. States," Working Papers 2102, Florida International University, Department of Economics.
    30. Motto, Roberto & Altavilla, Carlo & Carboni, Giacomo, 2015. "Asset purchase programmes and financial markets: lessons from the euro area," Working Paper Series 1864, European Central Bank.
    31. Arthur Korus, 2019. "Spillover Effects from the ECB's Unconventional Monetary Policies: The Case of Denmark, Norway and Sweden," Athens Journal of Business & Economics, Athens Institute for Education and Research (ATINER), vol. 5(1), pages 53-78, January.
    32. Krokida, Styliani-Iris & Makrychoriti, Panagiota & Spyrou, Spyros, 2020. "Monetary policy and herd behavior: International evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 386-417.
    33. Pierpaolo Benigno & Paolo Canofari & Giovanni Di Bartolomeo & Marcello Messori, 2021. "The ECB's policy measures during the COVID-19 crisis," Working Papers in Public Economics 207, University of Rome La Sapienza, Department of Economics and Law.
    34. Stefano Di Bucchianico, 2021. "Negative Interest Rate Policy to Fight Secular Stagnation: Unfeasible, Ineffective, Irrelevant, or Inadequate?," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(4), pages 687-710, October.
    35. Guido Bulligan & Davide Delle Monache, 2018. "Financial markets effects of ECB unconventional monetary policy announcements," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 424, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    36. Rostagno, Massimo & Altavilla, Carlo & Carboni, Giacomo & Lemke, Wolfgang & Motto, Roberto & Saint Guilhem, Arthur, 2021. "Combining negative rates, forward guidance and asset purchases: identification and impacts of the ECB’s unconventional policies," Working Paper Series 2564, European Central Bank.
    37. Gang Wang, 2019. "The Effects of Quantitative Easing Announcements on the Mortgage Market: An Event Study Approach," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-30, February.
    38. Silvia T. Trifonova, 2021. "Extraordinary Actions Of The Ecb In Response To The Coronavirus Pandemic," Economy & Business Journal, International Scientific Publications, Bulgaria, vol. 15(1), pages 1-23.
    39. Karlyn Mitchell & Douglas K. Pearce, 2020. "How Did Unconventional Monetary Policy Affect Economic Forecasts?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 38(1), pages 206-220, January.
    40. Chang, Ya-Ting & Gau, Yin-Feng & Hsu, Chih-Chiang, 2017. "Liquidity Commonality in Foreign Exchange Markets During the Global Financial Crisis and the Sovereign Debt Crisis: Effects of Macroeconomic and Quantitative Easing Announcements," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 172-192.
    41. Christian Beer & Christian Alexander Belabed & Andreas Breitenfellner & Christian Ragacs & Beat Weber, 2017. "Österreich und die europäische Integration," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 86-126.
    42. Rostagno, Massimo & Altavilla, Carlo & Carboni, Giacomo & Lemke, Wolfgang & Motto, Roberto & Saint Guilhem, Arthur & Yiangou, Jonathan, 2019. "A tale of two decades: the ECB’s monetary policy at 20," Working Paper Series 2346, European Central Bank.

  23. Laura Coroneo & Domenico Giannone & Michèle Modugno, 2013. "Unspanned Macroeconomic Factors in the Yields Curve," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2013-07, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.

    Cited by:

    1. Moench, Emanuel & Soofi-Siavash, Soroosh, 2022. "What moves treasury yields?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(3), pages 1016-1043.
    2. Giacomini, Raffaella & Ragusa, Giuseppe & Altavilla, Carlo, 2013. "Anchoring the Yield Curve Using Survey Expectations," CEPR Discussion Papers 9738, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Alberto Caruso & Laura Coroneo, 2023. "Does Real‐Time Macroeconomic Information Help to Predict Interest Rates?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(8), pages 2027-2059, December.
    4. Simona Delle Chiaie & Laurent Ferrara & Domenico Giannone, 2022. "Common factors of commodity prices," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(3), pages 461-476, April.
    5. Joseph P. Byrne & Shuo Cao. & Dimitris Korobilis., 2015. "Term Structure Dynamics, Macro-Finance Factors and Model Uncertainty," Working Papers 2015_08, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    6. Matteo Barigozzi & Matteo Luciani, 2017. "Common Factors, Trends, and Cycles in Large Datasets," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-111, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Norman R. Swanson & Weiqi Xiong, 2018. "Big data analytics in economics: What have we learned so far, and where should we go from here?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 51(3), pages 695-746, August.
    8. Massimo Guidolin & Manuela Pedio, 2019. "Forecasting and Trading Monetary Policy Effects on the Riskless Yield Curve with Regime Switching Nelson†Siegel Models," Working Papers 639, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    9. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2017. "Resolving the Spanning Puzzle in Macro-Finance Term Structure Models," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 21(2), pages 511-553.
    10. Luke Hartigan & Michelle Wright, 2023. "Monitoring Financial Conditions and Downside Risk to Economic Activity in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 99(325), pages 253-287, June.
    11. Carlo Altavilla & Riccardo Costantini & Raffaella Giacomini, 2013. "Bond returns and market expectations," CeMMAP working papers 20/13, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    12. Han, Yang & Jiao, Anqi & Ma, Jun, 2021. "The predictive power of Nelson–Siegel factor loadings for the real economy," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 95-127.
    13. Carlo Altavilla & Domenico Giannone & Michèle Modugno, 2014. "Low Frequency Effects of Macroeconomic News on Government Bond Yields," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2014-34, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    14. Byrne, JP & Cao, S & Korobilis, D, 2016. "Decomposing Global Yield Curve Co-Movement," Essex Finance Centre Working Papers 18194, University of Essex, Essex Business School.
    15. Poncela Blanco, Maria Pilar & Ruiz Ortega, Esther & Miranda Gualdrón, Karen Alejandra, 2020. "Factor extraction using Kalman filter and smoothing: this is not just another survey," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 30644, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    16. Guidolin, Massimo & Pedio, Manuela, 2019. "Forecasting and trading monetary policy effects on the riskless yield curve with regime switching Nelson–Siegel models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 1-1.
    17. Oguzhan Cepni & Ibrahim Ethem Guney & Doruk Kucuksarac & Muhammed Hasan Yilmaz, 2018. "The Interaction between Yield Curve and Macroeconomic Factors," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1802, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    18. Alberto Caruso & Laura Coroneo, 2019. "Predicting interest rates in real-time," Discussion Papers 19/18, Department of Economics, University of York.
    19. Rui Liu, 2019. "Forecasting Bond Risk Premia with Unspanned Macroeconomic Information," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(01), pages 1-62, March.
    20. Choi, Ahjin & Kang, Kyu Ho, 2023. "Modeling the time-varying dynamic term structure of interest rates," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    21. Matteo Barigozzi, 2023. "Quasi Maximum Likelihood Estimation of High-Dimensional Factor Models: A Critical Review," Papers 2303.11777, arXiv.org, revised May 2024.
    22. Monica Defend & Aleksey Min & Lorenzo Portelli & Franz Ramsauer & Francesco Sandrini & Rudi Zagst, 2021. "Quantifying Drivers of Forecasted Returns Using Approximate Dynamic Factor Models for Mixed-Frequency Panel Data," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(1), pages 1-35, February.
    23. Nikoleta Anesti & Ana Beatriz Galvão & Silvia Miranda‐Agrippino, 2022. "Uncertain Kingdom: Nowcasting Gross Domestic Product and its revisions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(1), pages 42-62, January.
    24. Dmitriy Stolyarov & Linda L. Tesar, 2019. "Interest Rate Trends in a Global Context," Working Papers wp402, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    25. Dorota Toczydlowska & Gareth W. Peters, 2018. "Financial Big Data Solutions for State Space Panel Regression in Interest Rate Dynamics," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-45, July.
    26. Fernandes, Marcelo & Vieira, Fausto, 2019. "A dynamic Nelson–Siegel model with forward-looking macroeconomic factors for the yield curve in the US," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 1-1.
    27. Christos Ioannidis & Kook Ka, 2021. "Economic Policy Uncertainty and Bond Risk Premia," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(6), pages 1479-1522, September.
    28. Matteo Barigozzi & Lorenzo Trapani, 2018. "Determining the dimension of factor structures in non-stationary large datasets," Papers 1806.03647, arXiv.org.
    29. Alexander, Carol & Han, Yang & Meng, Xiaochun, 2023. "Static and dynamic models for multivariate distribution forecasts: Proper scoring rule tests of factor-quantile versus multivariate GARCH models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1078-1096.
    30. Luke Hartigan & Michelle Wright, 2021. "Financial Conditions and Downside Risk to Economic Activity in Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2021-03, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    31. Matteo Barigozzi, 2023. "Asymptotic equivalence of Principal Components and Quasi Maximum Likelihood estimators in Large Approximate Factor Models," Papers 2307.09864, arXiv.org, revised May 2024.
    32. Jiazi Chen & Zhiwu Hong & Linlin Niu, 2022. "Forecasting Interest Rates with Shifting Endpoints: The Role of the Demographic Age Structure," Working Papers 2022-06-25, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University.
    33. Martin Gonzalez-Rozada & Martin sola & Constantino Hevia & Fabio Spagnolo, 2012. "Estimating and Forecasting the Yield Curve Using a Markov Switching Dynamic Nelson and Siegel Model," Department of Economics Working Papers 2012-07, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
    34. Miranda Gualdrón, Karen Alejandra & Poncela, Pilar & Ruiz Ortega, Esther, 2021. "Dynamic factor models: does the specification matter?," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 32210, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    35. Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Matteo Luciani & Michele Modugno, 2023. "Lessons from Nowcasting GDP across the World," International Finance Discussion Papers 1385, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    36. Siem Jan Koopman & Julia Schaumburg & Quint Wiersma, 2021. "Joint Modelling and Estimation of Global and Local Cross-Sectional Dependence in Large Panels," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 21-008/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    37. Massimo Guidolin & Manuela Pedio, 2019. "Forecasting and Trading Monetary Policy Switching Nelson-Siegel Models," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 19106, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    38. Goodarzi, Milad & Meinerding, Christoph, 2023. "Asset allocation with recursive parameter updating and macroeconomic regime identifiers," Discussion Papers 06/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    39. Caruso, Alberto, 2018. "Nowcasting with the help of foreign indicators: The case of Mexico," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 160-168.
    40. Norman R. Swanson & Weiqi Xiong & Xiye Yang, 2020. "Predicting interest rates using shrinkage methods, real‐time diffusion indexes, and model combinations," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(5), pages 587-613, August.
    41. Matteo Iacopini & Aubrey Poon & Luca Rossini & Dan Zhu, 2024. "A Quantile Nelson-Siegel model," Papers 2401.09874, arXiv.org.
    42. Matteo Barigozzi & Matteo Luciani, 2019. "Quasi Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference of Large Approximate Dynamic Factor Models via the EM algorithm," Papers 1910.03821, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2022.
    43. Byrne, Joseph P. & Cao, Shuo & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2017. "Forecasting the term structure of government bond yields in unstable environments," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 209-225.

  24. Reichlin, Lucrezia & Pill, Huw & Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele, 2012. "The ECB and the Interbank Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 8844, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Joanna Stawska & Katarzyna Miszczyńska, 2017. "The Impact of the European Central Bank’s Interest Rates on Investments in the Euro Area," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 5, pages 51-72.
    2. Bańbura, Marta & Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele, 2015. "Conditional forecasts and scenario analysis with vector autoregressions for large cross-sections," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 739-756.
    3. Leo de Haan & Sarah Holton & Jan Willem van den End, 2021. "The impact of central bank liquidity support on banks’ sovereign exposures," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(15), pages 1788-1806, March.
    4. Antonio Alvarez & Alejandro Fernandez & Joaquin Garcia-Cabo & Diana Posada, 2019. "Liquidity Funding Shocks : The Role of Banks' Funding Mix," International Finance Discussion Papers 1245, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Christophe Blot & Jérôme Creel & Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2015. "The QE experience: worth a try?," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03470201, HAL.
    6. Calluzzo, Paul & Dong, Gang Nathan, 2015. "Has the financial system become safer after the crisis? The changing nature of financial institution risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 233-248.
    7. Engler, Philipp & Grosse Steffen, Christoph, 2015. "Sovereign risk, interbank freezes, and aggregate fluctuations," Working Paper Series 1840, European Central Bank.
    8. Christophe Blot & Fabien Labondance, 2021. "Beyond the Interest Rate Pass-through: Monetary Policy and Banks Interest Rates during the Effective Lower Bound," Working Papers 2021-03, CRESE.
    9. Antonio M. Conti & Andrea Nobili & Federico M. Signoretti, 2018. "Bank capital constraints, lending supply and economic activity," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1199, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    10. Christophe Blot & Jérôme Creel & Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2015. "Que peut-on attendre de l'assouplissement quantitatif de la BCE ?," Post-Print hal-03459898, HAL.
    11. Matthias Neuenkirch & Matthias Nöckel, 2017. "The Risk-Taking Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission in the Euro Area," Research Papers in Economics 2017-02, University of Trier, Department of Economics.
    12. Christophe Blot & Jérôme Creel & Xavier Ragot, 2019. "The Euro at 20: a critical assessment," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03403622, HAL.
    13. Petrella, Ivan & Antolin-Diaz, Juan & Rubio-Ramírez, Juan Francisco, 2018. "Structural Scenario Analysis with SVARs," CEPR Discussion Papers 12579, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Michael Joyce & David Miles & Andrew Scott & Dimitri Vayanos, 2012. "Quantitative Easing and Unconventional Monetary Policy – an Introduction," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(564), pages 271-288, November.
    15. Kooths, Stefan & van Roye, Björn, 2012. "Euro area: Single currency - national money creation," Kiel Working Papers 1787, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    16. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Aastveit, Knut Are & Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd, 2016. "Have Standard VARs Remained Stable Since the Crisis?," CEPR Discussion Papers 11558, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. Grimm, Niklas & Laeven, Luc & Popov, Alexander, 2021. "Quantitative easing and corporate innovation," Working Paper Series 2615, European Central Bank.
    18. C. Cahn & J. Matheron & J-G. Sahuc, 2014. "Assessing the macroeconomic effects of LTROS," Working papers 528, Banque de France.
    19. Federico GIRI, 2014. "Does Interbank Market Matter for Business Cycle Fluctuation? An Estimated DSGE Model with Financial Frictions for the Euro Area," Working Papers 398, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    20. Jef Boeckx & Maarten Dossche & Gert Peersman, 2014. "Effectiveness and Transmission of the ECB's Balance Sheet Policies," CESifo Working Paper Series 4907, CESifo.
    21. Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2014. "Monetary Policy and Banks in the Euro Area: The Tale of Two Crises," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 39(PB), pages 387-400.
    22. Ewald Nowotny, 2012. "Der Euro - Vergangenheit, Gegenwart, Zukunft," Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft - WuG, Kammer für Arbeiter und Angestellte für Wien, Abteilung Wirtschaftswissenschaft und Statistik, vol. 38(2), pages 273-284.
    23. Quint, Dominic & Tristani, Oreste, 2017. "Liquidity provision as a monetary policy tool: the ECB’s non-standard measures after the financial crisis," Working Paper Series 2113, European Central Bank.
    24. Darracq-Paries, Matthieu & De Santis, Roberto A., 2015. "A non-standard monetary policy shock: The ECB's 3-year LTROs and the shift in credit supply," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 1-34.
    25. Fernando Avalos & Emmanuel C Mamatzakis, 2018. "Euro area unconventional monetary policy and bank resilience," BIS Working Papers 754, Bank for International Settlements.
    26. Manfred Kremer, 2016. "Macroeconomic effects of financial stress and the role of monetary policy: a VAR analysis for the euro area," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 105-138, January.
    27. Bai, Yiyi & Dang, Tri Vi & He, Qing & Lu, Liping, 2022. "Does lending relationship help or alleviate the transmission of liquidity shocks? Evidence from a liquidity crunch in China," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    28. Camba-Méndez, Gonzalo & Durré, Alain & Mongelli, Francesco Paolo, 2016. "Bank interest rate setting in the euro area during the Great Recession," Working Paper Series 1965, European Central Bank.
    29. Ferrando, Annalisa & Popov, Alexander & Udell, Gregory F., 2021. "Unconventional monetary policy, funding expectations, and firm decisions," Working Paper Series 2598, European Central Bank.
    30. Cour-Thimann, Philippine & Winkler, Bernhard, 2013. "The ECB's non-standard monetary policy measures: the role of institutional factors and financial structure," Working Paper Series 1528, European Central Bank.
    31. Churm, Rohan & Joyce, Michael & Kapetanios, George & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2021. "Unconventional monetary policies and the macroeconomy: The impact of the UK's QE2 and funding for lending scheme," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 721-736.
    32. Christian Pfister, Natacha Valla, 2018. "‘New Normal’ or ‘New Orthodoxy’? Elements of a Central Banking Framework for the After-Crisis," Working papers 680, Banque de France.
    33. Fabo, Brian & Jančoková, Martina & Kempf, Elisabeth & Pástor, Ľuboš, 2021. "Fifty shades of QE: Comparing findings of central bankers and academics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 1-20.
    34. Pateiro-Rodríguez, Carlos & Freire-Seoane, María Jesús & López-Bermúdez, Beatriz & Pateiro-López, Carlos, 2020. "Análisis de la tendencia a la liquidez del agregado monetario M3 en la eurozona: 1997-2018," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 87(345), pages 171-201, enero-mar.
    35. Churm, Rohan & Joyce, Mike & Kapetanios, George & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2015. "Unconventional monetary policies and the macroeconomy: the impact of the United Kingdom's QE2 and Funding for Lending Scheme," Bank of England working papers 542, Bank of England.
    36. Gilles Dufrénot & Anwar Khayat, 2014. "Monetary Policy Switching in the Euro Area and Multiple Equilibria: An Empirical Investigation," AMSE Working Papers 1408, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France, revised Jan 2014.
    37. Carlo Altavilla & Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza, 2014. "The Financial and Macroeconomic Effects of the OMT Announcements," CSEF Working Papers 352, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    38. Anastasios Evgenidis & Masashige Hamano & Wessel N. Vermeulen, 2021. "Economic consequences of follow-up disasters: lessons from the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake," Working Papers 2111, Waseda University, Faculty of Political Science and Economics.
    39. Poutineau, Jean-Christophe & Vermandel, Gauthier, 2016. "Global Banking and the Conduct of Macroprudential Policy in a Monetary Union," MPRA Paper 81367, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 14 Apr 2017.
    40. Kurter, Zeynep O., 2022. "How macroeconomic conditions affect systemic risk in the short and long-run?," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1407, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    41. Nicolas Barbaroux, 2014. "The Bank of France and the Open-Market instrument: an impossible wedding?," Working Papers halshs-01069286, HAL.
    42. Reichlin, Lucrezia & Pill, Huw, 2014. "Exceptional policies for exceptional times: The ECB's response to the rolling crises of the Euro Area, and how it has brought u," CEPR Discussion Papers 10193, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    43. Ouerk, Salima & Boucher, Christophe & Lubochinsky, Catherine, 2020. "Unconventional monetary policy in the Euro Area: Shadow rate and light effets," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    44. Chi, Yeguang & Li, Xiaoming, 2019. "Beauties of the emperor: An investigation of a Chinese government bailout," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 42-70.
    45. Chen, Haixia & Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick, 2023. "UK Monetary Policy in An Estimated DSGE Model with State-Dependent Price and Wage Contracts," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2023/22, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    46. Neri, Stefano & Nobili, Andrea & Conti, Antonio M., 2017. "Low inflation and monetary policy in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2005, European Central Bank.
    47. Michal Jurek & Pawel Marszalek, 2015. "Policy alternatives for the relationship between ECB monetary and financial policies and new member states," Working papers wpaper112, Financialisation, Economy, Society & Sustainable Development (FESSUD) Project.
    48. Tatom, John, 2011. "Monetary policy in disarray," MPRA Paper 34607, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    49. Hlebik Sviatlana & Verga Giovanni, 2015. "The European Central Bank Quantitative Policy and Its Consistency with the Demand for Liquidity," Scientific Annals of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 62(3), pages 425-451, November.
    50. Popov, Alexander & Steininger, Lea, 2023. "Monetary policy and local industry structure," Working Paper Series 2778, European Central Bank.
    51. Matthieu Darracq Paries, 2018. "Financial frictions and monetary policy conduct," Erudite Ph.D Dissertations, Erudite, number ph18-01 edited by Ferhat Mihoubi, April.
    52. Hartmann, Philipp & Smets, Frank, 2018. "The first twenty years of the European Central Bank: monetary policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 13411, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    53. Quint, Dominic & Tristani, Oreste, 2015. "Liquidity provision to banks as a monetary policy tool: the ECB's non-standard measures in 2008-2011," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112974, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    54. Avalos, Fernando & Mamatzakis, Emmanuel, 2023. "Is bank resilience affected by unconventional monetary policy in the Euro area?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    55. A. Bernales & M. di Filippo, 2016. "The Information Contained in Money Market Interactions: Unsecured vs. Collateralized Lending," Working papers 598, Banque de France.
    56. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Groll, Dominik & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Plödt, Martin & Schwarzmüller, Tim & van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim, 2014. "Finanz- und Wirtschaftspolitik bei einer anhaltenden monetären Expansion," Kieler Beiträge zur Wirtschaftspolitik 5, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    57. Abbassi, Puriya & Linzert, Tobias, 2012. "The effectiveness of monetary policy in steering money market rates during the financial crisis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 945-954.
    58. Kühl, Michael, 2014. "Mitigating financial stress in a bank-financed economy: Equity injections into banks or purchases of assets?," Discussion Papers 19/2014, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    59. Borio, Claudio & Gambacorta, Leonardo, 2017. "Monetary policy and bank lending in a low interest rate environment: Diminishing effectiveness?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 54(PB), pages 217-231.
    60. Evgenidis, Anastasios & Salachas, Evangelos, 2019. "Unconventional monetary policy and the credit channel in the euro area," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    61. Arnold, Ivo J.M. & Soederhuizen, Beau, 2018. "The missing spillover of base expansion into monetary aggregates: Is there a puzzle?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 64-76.
    62. André Grjebine, 2013. "L'Eurosystème: un mécanisme de transferts en faveur des pays déficitaires ? Le débat," Post-Print hal-01024818, HAL.
    63. Bastanzad , Hossein, 2014. "A New Policy Environment to Achieve Monetary Goals," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 9(4), pages 73-108, July.
    64. Florentina Melnic, 2017. "The Financial Crisis Response. Comparative Analysis Between European Union And Usa," Review of Economic and Business Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 19, pages 129-155, June.
    65. Vito Polito, 2020. "Nonlinear Business Cycle and Optimal Policy: A VSTAR Perspective," CESifo Working Paper Series 8060, CESifo.
    66. Babecká Kucharčuková, Oxana & Claeys, Peter & Vašíček, Bořek, 2016. "Spillover of the ECB's monetary policy outside the euro area: How different is conventional from unconventional policy?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 199-225.
    67. André Grjebine, 2013. "L'Eurosystème: un mécanisme de transferts en faveur des pays déficitaires ? Le débat," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-01024818, HAL.
    68. Misha van Beek, 2020. "Consistent Calibration of Economic Scenario Generators: The Case for Conditional Simulation," Papers 2004.09042, arXiv.org.
    69. Pami Dua, 2023. "Macroeconomic Modelling and Bayesian Methods," Springer Books, in: Pami Dua (ed.), Macroeconometric Methods, chapter 0, pages 19-37, Springer.
    70. Avouyi-Dovi, S. & Horny, G. & Sevestre, P., 2013. "The dynamics of bank loans short-term interest rates in the Euro area: what lessons can we draw from the current crisis?," Working papers 462, Banque de France.
    71. Betz, Frank & De Santis, Roberto A., 2019. "ECB corporate QE and the loan supply to bank-dependent firms," Working Paper Series 2314, European Central Bank.
    72. De Santis, Roberto A. & Surico, Paolo, 2013. "Bank lending and monetary transmission in the euro area," Working Paper Series 1568, European Central Bank.
    73. Nicolas Barbaroux, 2014. "The Bank of France and the Open-Market instrument: an impossible wedding?," Working Papers 1423, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.
    74. Dubecq, Simon & Monfort, Alain & Renne, Jean-Paul & Roussellet, Guillaume, 2016. "Credit and liquidity in interbank rates: A quadratic approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 29-46.
    75. Christophe Cahn & Julien Matheron & Jean‐Guillaume Sahuc, 2017. "Assessing the Macroeconomic Effects of LTROs during the Great Recession," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(7), pages 1443-1482, October.
    76. Dragomirescu-Gaina, Catalin & Philippas, Dionisis, 2013. "Is the EMU government bond market a playground for asymmetries?," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 21-31.
    77. Aries Haryadi & Sahabudin Sidiq, 2013. "Inter-bank call money market transaction in Indonesia," Economic Journal of Emerging Markets, Universitas Islam Indonesia, vol. 5(2), pages 92-98, April.

  25. Michele Modugno & Lucrezia Reichlin & Domenico Giannone & Marta Banbura, 2012. "Nowcasting with Daily Data," 2012 Meeting Papers 555, Society for Economic Dynamics.

    Cited by:

    1. Götz, T.B. & Hecq, A.W. & Urbain, J.R.Y.J., 2014. "Combining distributions of real-time forecasts: An application to U.S. growth," Research Memorandum 027, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).
    2. Park, Sungjun & Kim, Jinsoo, 2018. "The effect of interest in renewable energy on US household electricity consumption: An analysis using Google Trends data," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 1004-1010.
    3. Laurent Ferrara & Anna Simoni, 2023. "When are Google Data Useful to Nowcast GDP? An Approach via Preselection and Shrinkage," Post-Print hal-03919944, HAL.
    4. Bragoli, Daniela, 2017. "Now-casting the Japanese economy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 390-402.
    5. Wieland, Volker & Wolters, Maik Hendrik, 2012. "Forecasting and policy making," IMFS Working Paper Series 62, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    6. Bragoli, Daniela & Modugno, Michele, 2017. "A now-casting model for Canada: Do U.S. variables matter?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 786-800.
    7. Davor Kunovac & Borna Špalat, 2014. "Nowcasting GDP Using Available Monthly Indicators," Working Papers 39, The Croatian National Bank, Croatia.

  26. Reichlin, Lucrezia & Giannone, Domenico & Modugno, Michele & Banbura, Marta, 2012. "Now-casting and the real-time data flow," CEPR Discussion Papers 9112, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Longo, Luigi & Riccaboni, Massimo & Rungi, Armando, 2022. "A neural network ensemble approach for GDP forecasting," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    2. Joshua C. C. Chan & Xuewen Yu, 2022. "Fast and Accurate Variational Inference for Large Bayesian VARs with Stochastic Volatility," Papers 2206.08438, arXiv.org.
    3. Scott A. Brave & Charles S. Gascon & William Kluender & Thomas Walstrum, 2019. "Predicting Benchmarked US State Employment Data in Real Time," Working Papers 2019-037, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 11 Mar 2021.
    4. Edward S. Knotek & Saeed Zaman, 2017. "Financial Nowcasts and Their Usefulness in Macroeconomic Forecasting," Working Papers (Old Series) 1702, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    5. Michael Pfarrhofer, 2024. "Forecasts with Bayesian vector autoregressions under real time conditions," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(3), pages 771-801, April.
    6. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2012. "Real-time nowcasting with a Bayesian mixed frequency model with stochastic volatility," Working Papers (Old Series) 1227, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    7. Mogliani, Matteo & Darné, Olivier & Pluyaud, Bertrand, 2017. "The new MIBA model: Real-time nowcasting of French GDP using the Banque de France's monthly business survey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 26-39.
    8. Robert Ambrisko, 2022. "Nowcasting Macroeconomic Variables Using High-Frequency Fiscal Data," Working Papers 2022/5, Czech National Bank.
    9. Claudia Foroni & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2013. "A survey of econometric methods for mixed-frequency data," Working Paper 2013/06, Norges Bank.
    10. Simona Delle Chiaie & Laurent Ferrara & Domenico Giannone, 2022. "Common factors of commodity prices," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(3), pages 461-476, April.
    11. Anesti, Nikoleta & Galvao, Ana Beatriz & Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia, 2018. "Uncertain kingdom: nowcasting GDP and its revisions," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 90382, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    12. Kyosuke Chikamatsu, Naohisa Hirakata, Yosuke Kido, Kazuki Otaka, 2018. "Nowcasting Japanese GDPs," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 18-E-18, Bank of Japan.
    13. Alkhareif, Ryadh M. & Barnett, William A., 2020. "Nowcasting Real GDP for Saudi Arabia," MPRA Paper 104278, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Aastveit, Knut Are & Trovik, Tørres, 2014. "Estimating the output gap in real time: A factor model approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 180-193.
    15. David Kohns & Arnab Bhattacharjee, 2019. "Interpreting Big Data in the Macro Economy: A Bayesian Mixed Frequency Estimator," CEERP Working Paper Series 010, Centre for Energy Economics Research and Policy, Heriot-Watt University.
    16. Antolin-Diaz, Juan & Drechsel, Thomas & Petrella, Ivan, 2017. "Tracking the slowdown in long-run GDP growth," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 81869, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    17. Luciani, Matteo & Pundit, Madhavi & Ramayandi, Arief & Veronese , Giovanni, 2015. "Nowcasting Indonesia," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 471, Asian Development Bank.
    18. Tony Chernis & Calista Cheung & Gabriella Velasco, 2017. "A Three-Frequency Dynamic Factor Model for Nowcasting Canadian Provincial GDP Growth," Discussion Papers 17-8, Bank of Canada.
    19. Brum, Matias & De Rosa, Mauricio, 2021. "Too little but not too late: nowcasting poverty and cash transfers’ incidence during COVID-19’s crisis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    20. Tuhkuri, Joonas, 2016. "Forecasting Unemployment with Google Searches," ETLA Working Papers 35, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    21. Aleksandra Riedl & Julia Wörz, 2018. "A simple approach to nowcasting GDP growth in CESEE economies," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q4/18, pages 56-74.
    22. Delle Monache, Davide & Petrella, Ivan & Venditti, Fabrizio, 2020. "Price dividend ratio and long-run stock returns: a score driven state space model," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1296, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    23. Lenza, Michele & Cimadomo, Jacopo & Giannone, Domenico & Monti, Francesca & Sokol, Andrej, 2021. "Nowcasting with Large Bayesian Vector Autoregressions," CEPR Discussion Papers 15854, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    24. Andrea Carriero & Galvao, Ana Beatriz & Kapetanios, George, 2016. "A comprehensive evaluation of macroeconomic forecasting methods," EMF Research Papers 10, Economic Modelling and Forecasting Group.
    25. Petrella, Ivan & Drechsel, Thomas & Antolin-Diaz, Juan, 2014. "Following the Trend: Tracking GDP when Long-Run Growth is Uncertain," CEPR Discussion Papers 10272, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    26. Matteo Luciani & Lorenzo Ricci, 2014. "Nowcasting Norway," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(4), pages 215-248, December.
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    167. Heinisch, Katja, 2016. "A real-time analysis on the importance of hard and soft data for nowcasting German GDP," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145864, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    168. Yi-Ting Chen, 2021. "A mixed-frequency smooth measure for business conditions," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(4), pages 1699-1724, October.
    169. Kirstin Hubrich & Simone Manganelli, 2014. "Comment," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(4), pages 506-509, October.
    170. Abdalla, Ahmed M. & Carabias, Jose M. & Patatoukas, Panos N., 2021. "The real-time macro content of corporate financial reports: A dynamic factor model approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 260-280.
    171. Kitlinski, Tobias, 2015. "With or without you: Do financial data help to forecast industrial production?," Ruhr Economic Papers 558, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    172. Ademmer, Martin & Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Fiedler, Salomon & Groll, Dominik & Hauber, Philipp & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Potjagailo, Galina, 2018. "Deutsche Konjunktur im Frühjahr 2018 - Deutsche Wirtschaft näher am Limit [German Economy Spring 2018 - German economy closer to its limit]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 41, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    173. Paul Labonne, 2020. "Capturing GDP nowcast uncertainty in real time," Papers 2012.02601, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2021.
    174. Wichitaksorn, Nuttanan, 2022. "Analyzing and forecasting Thai macroeconomic data using mixed-frequency approach," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    175. Joseph, Andreas & Kalamara, Eleni & Kapetanios, George & Potjagailo, Galina & Chakraborty, Chiranjit, 2021. "Forecasting UK inflation bottom up," Bank of England working papers 915, Bank of England, revised 27 Sep 2022.
    176. Urasawa, Satoshi, 2014. "Real-time GDP forecasting for Japan: A dynamic factor model approach," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 116-134.

  27. Giannone, Domenico & De Mol, Christine & Conflitti, Cristina, 2012. "Optimal Combination of Survey Forecasts," CEPR Discussion Papers 9096, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Eckert, Florian & Hyndman, Rob J. & Panagiotelis, Anastasios, 2021. "Forecasting Swiss exports using Bayesian forecast reconciliation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 291(2), pages 693-710.
    2. Sun, Yuying & Hong, Yongmiao & Wang, Shouyang & Zhang, Xinyu, 2023. "Penalized time-varying model averaging," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 1355-1377.
    3. Laura Coroneo & Fabrizio Iacone, 2020. "Comparing predictive accuracy in small samples using fixed‐smoothing asymptotics," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(4), pages 391-409, June.
    4. Francis X. Diebold & Minchul Shin & Boyuan Zhang, 2020. "On the Aggregation of Probability Assessments: Regularized Mixtures of Predictive Densities for Eurozone Inflation and Real Interest Rates," Papers 2012.11649, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2022.
    5. Fuentes, Julieta & Poncela, Pilar & Rodríguez, Julio, 2014. "Selecting and combining experts from survey forecasts," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws140905, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    6. Knotek, Edward S. & Zaman, Saeed, 2023. "Real-time density nowcasts of US inflation: A model combination approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 1736-1760.
    7. Constantin Rudolf Salomo Bürgi, 2023. "How to deal with missing observations in surveys of professional forecasters," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(1), pages 2185975-218, December.
    8. Roccazzella, Francesco & Candelon, Bertrand, 2022. "Should we care about ECB inflation expectations?," LIDAM Discussion Papers LFIN 2022004, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain Finance (LFIN).
    9. Roberto Casarin & Fausto Corradin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Nguyen Domenico Sartore, 2020. "A Scoring Rule for Factor and Autoregressive Models Under Misspecification," Advances in Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 24(2), pages 66-103, June.
    10. Christopher McDonald & Craig Thamotheram & Shaun P. Vahey & Elizabeth C. Wakerly, 2016. "Assessing the economic value of probabilistic forecasts in the presence of an inflation target," CAMA Working Papers 2016-40, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    11. Li, Hongmin & Wang, Jianzhou & Lu, Haiyan & Guo, Zhenhai, 2018. "Research and application of a combined model based on variable weight for short term wind speed forecasting," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 116(PA), pages 669-684.
    12. Wang, Shengjie & Kang, Yanfei & Petropoulos, Fotios, 2024. "Combining probabilistic forecasts of intermittent demand," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 315(3), pages 1038-1048.
    13. Diebold, Francis X. & Shin, Minchul, 2019. "Machine learning for regularized survey forecast combination: Partially-egalitarian LASSO and its derivatives," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1679-1691.
    14. Petropoulos, Fotios & Spiliotis, Evangelos & Panagiotelis, Anastasios, 2023. "Model combinations through revised base rates," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1477-1492.
    15. Richard K. Crump & Domenico Giannone & Sean Hundtofte, 2018. "Changing Risk-Return Profiles," Liberty Street Economics 20181004, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    16. Zhentao Shi & Liangjun Su & Tian Xie, 2020. "L2-Relaxation: With Applications to Forecast Combination and Portfolio Analysis," Papers 2010.09477, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2022.
    17. Senra, Eva & Espasa, Antoni, 2017. "22 Years of inflation assessment and forecasting experience at the bulletin of EU & US inflation and macroeconomic analysis," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 24678, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    18. McAdam, Peter & Warne, Anders, 2018. "Euro area real-time density forecasting with financial or labor market frictions," Working Paper Series 2140, European Central Bank.
    19. Diebold, Francis X. & Shin, Minchul & Zhang, Boyuan, 2023. "On the aggregation of probability assessments: Regularized mixtures of predictive densities for Eurozone inflation and real interest rates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 237(2).
    20. Benjamin Avanzi & Yanfeng Li & Bernard Wong & Alan Xian, 2022. "Ensemble distributional forecasting for insurance loss reserving," Papers 2206.08541, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2024.
    21. Roccazzella, Francesco & Gambetti, Paolo & Vrins, Frédéric, 2021. "Optimal and robust combination of forecasts via constrained optimization and shrinkage," LIDAM Reprints LFIN 2021014, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain Finance (LFIN).
    22. Lenza, Michele & Moutachaker, Inès & Paredes, Joan, 2023. "Density forecasts of inflation: a quantile regression forest approach," Working Paper Series 2830, European Central Bank.
    23. Cobb, Marcus P A, 2017. "Joint Forecast Combination of Macroeconomic Aggregates and Their Components," MPRA Paper 76556, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    24. Constantin Bürgi & Tara M. Sinclair, 2015. "A Nonparametric Approach to Identifying a Subset of Forecasters that Outperforms the Simple Average," Working Papers 2015-006, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    25. Esteban Fernández-Vázquez & Blanca Moreno, 2017. "Entropy Econometrics for combining regional economic forecasts: A Data-Weighted Prior Estimator," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, vol. 19(4), pages 349-370, October.
    26. Matsypura, Dmytro & Thompson, Ryan & Vasnev, Andrey L., 2018. "Optimal selection of expert forecasts with integer programming," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 165-175.
    27. Victor Lopez-Perez, 2016. "Macroeconomic Forecast Uncertainty In The Euro Area," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 11(1), pages 9-41, March.
    28. Knut Are Aastveit & James Mitchell & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman van Dijk, 2018. "The Evolution of Forecast Density Combinations in Economics," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 18-069/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    29. Roberto Casarin & Stefano Grassi & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2015. "Dynamic predictive density combinations for large data sets in economics and finance," Working Paper 2015/12, Norges Bank.
    30. Martina Hengge, 2019. "Uncertainty as a Predictor of Economic Activity," IHEID Working Papers 19-2019, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    31. Jiun-Hua Su, 2021. "No-Regret Forecasting with Egalitarian Committees," Papers 2109.13801, arXiv.org.
    32. Francis X. Diebold & Minchul Shin, 2017. "Beating the Simple Average: Egalitarian LASSO for Combining Economic Forecasts," PIER Working Paper Archive 17-017, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 20 Aug 2017.
    33. Hauzenberger, Niko & Huber, Florian & Klieber, Karin, 2023. "Real-time inflation forecasting using non-linear dimension reduction techniques," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 901-921.
    34. Wang, Xiaoqian & Hyndman, Rob J. & Li, Feng & Kang, Yanfei, 2023. "Forecast combinations: An over 50-year review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 1518-1547.
    35. Qian, Yilin & Thompson, Ryan & Vasnev, Andrey L, 2022. "Global combinations of expert forecasts," Working Papers BAWP-2022-02, University of Sydney Business School, Discipline of Business Analytics.
    36. Cobb, Marcus P A, 2018. "Improving Underlying Scenarios for Aggregate Forecasts: A Multi-level Combination Approach," MPRA Paper 88593, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    37. Yanwei Jia & Jussi Keppo & Ville Satopää, 2023. "Herding in Probabilistic Forecasts," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(5), pages 2713-2732, May.
    38. Ryan Thompson & Yilin Qian & Andrey L. Vasnev, 2022. "Flexible global forecast combinations," Papers 2207.07318, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2024.
    39. Oinonen, Sami & Paloviita, Maritta, 2016. "How informative are aggregated inflation expectations? Evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 15/2016, Bank of Finland.
    40. Geoff Kenny & Thomas Kostka & Federico Masera, 2015. "Can Macroeconomists Forecast Risk? Event-Based Evidence from the Euro-Area SPF," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 11(4), pages 1-46, December.
    41. Mehmanpazir, Farhad & Khalili-Damghani, Kaveh & Hafezalkotob, Ashkan, 2022. "Dynamic strategic planning: A hybrid approach based on logarithmic regression, system dynamics, Game Theory and Fuzzy Inference System (Case study Steel Industry)," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    42. Anne Opschoor & Dick van Dijk & Michel van der Wel, 2014. "Improving Density Forecasts and Value-at-Risk Estimates by Combining Densities," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 14-090/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    43. Pilar Poncela & Eva Senra, 2017. "Measuring uncertainty and assessing its predictive power in the euro area," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 165-182, August.
    44. Kiss, Tamás & Kladívko, Kamil & Silfverberg, Oliwer & Österholm, Pär, 2023. "Market participants or the random walk – who forecasts better? Evidence from micro-level survey data," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    45. Tony Chernis, 2023. "Combining Large Numbers of Density Predictions with Bayesian Predictive Synthesis," Staff Working Papers 23-45, Bank of Canada.
    46. Antoni Espasa & Eva Senra, 2017. "Twenty-Two Years of Inflation Assessment and Forecasting Experience at the Bulletin of EU & US Inflation and Macroeconomic Analysis," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-28, October.
    47. Víctor López-Pérez, 2017. "Do professional forecasters behave as if they believed in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve for the euro area?," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 44(1), pages 147-174, February.

  28. Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Primiceri, Giorgio, 2012. "Prior Selection for Vector Autoregressions," CEPR Discussion Papers 8755, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Dr. Gregor Bäurle & Daniel Kaufmann, 2014. "Exchange rate and price dynamics in a small open economy - the role of the zero lower bound and monetary policy regimes," Working Papers 2014-10, Swiss National Bank.
    2. Alberto Caruso & Lucrezia Reichlin & Giovanni Ricco, 2019. "Financial and fiscal interaction in the euro area crisis: this time was different," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03403269, HAL.
    3. Tomas Konecny & Oxana Babecka-Kucharcukova, 2016. "Credit Spreads and the Links between the Financial and Real Sectors in a Small Open Economy: The Case of the Czech Republic," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 66(4), pages 302-321, August.
    4. Joshua C. C. Chan & Liana Jacobi & Dan Zhu, 2020. "Efficient selection of hyperparameters in large Bayesian VARs using automatic differentiation," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(6), pages 934-943, September.
    5. Laura Liu & Hyungsik Roger Moon & Frank Schorfheide, 2019. "Forecasting with a Panel Tobit Model," CAEPR Working Papers 2019-005, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.
    6. Mackowiak, Bartosz & Jarocinski, Marek, 2013. "Granger-Causal-Priority and Choice of Variables in Vector Autoregressions," CEPR Discussion Papers 9686, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Michal Franta, 2012. "Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy in the Czech Republic: Evidence Based on Various Identification Approaches in a VAR Framework," Working Papers 2012/13, Czech National Bank.
    8. Joshua C. C. Chan & Xuewen Yu, 2022. "Fast and Accurate Variational Inference for Large Bayesian VARs with Stochastic Volatility," Papers 2206.08438, arXiv.org.
    9. Pooyan Amir-Ahmadi & Christian Matthes & Mu-Chun Wang, 2020. "Choosing Prior Hyperparameters: With Applications to Time-Varying Parameter Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(1), pages 124-136, January.
    10. Tallman, Ellis W. & Zaman, Saeed, 2020. "Combining survey long-run forecasts and nowcasts with BVAR forecasts using relative entropy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 373-398.
    11. Niko Hauzenberger & Florian Huber & Massimiliano Marcellino & Nico Petz, 2021. "Gaussian Process Vector Autoregressions and Macroeconomic Uncertainty," Papers 2112.01995, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2022.
    12. Haldane, Andrew & Roberts-Sklar, Matt & Wieladek, Tomasz & Young, Chris, 2016. "QE: The Story so far," Bank of England working papers 624, Bank of England.
    13. Minsu Chang & Xiaohong Chen & Frank Schorfheide, 2021. "Heterogeneity and Aggregate Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 28853, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis, 2018. "Forecasting with High-Dimensional Panel VARs," Working Paper series 18-20, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    15. Francesca Monti, 2015. "Can a data-rich environment help identify the sources of model misspecification?," Discussion Papers 1505, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    16. Scott Brave & R. Andrew Butters & Alejandro Justiniano, 2016. "Forecasting Economic Activity with Mixed Frequency Bayesian VARs," Working Paper Series WP-2016-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    17. Inske Pirschel & Maik H. Wolters, 2018. "Forecasting with large datasets: compressing information before, during or after the estimation?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 573-596, September.
    18. Bańbura, Marta & Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele, 2015. "Conditional forecasts and scenario analysis with vector autoregressions for large cross-sections," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 739-756.
    19. Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia & Ricco, Giovanni, 2018. "Bayesian vector autoregressions," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 87393, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    20. Raffaella Giacomini, 2012. "Incorporating theoretical restrictions into forecasting by projection methods," 2012 Meeting Papers 548, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    21. Michael Pfarrhofer, 2024. "Forecasts with Bayesian vector autoregressions under real time conditions," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(3), pages 771-801, April.
    22. Frank Schorfheide & Dongho Song, 2015. "Real-Time Forecasting With a Mixed-Frequency VAR," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(3), pages 366-380, July.
    23. Del Negro, Marco & Lenza, Michele & Primiceri, Giorgio E. & Tambalotti, Andrea, 2020. "What’s up with the Phillips Curve?," Working Paper Series 2435, European Central Bank.
    24. Eleni Zafeiriou & Spyridon Galatsidas & Garyfallos Arabatzis & Stavros Tsiantikoudis & Athanasios Batzios, 2023. "Environmental Degradation by Energy–Economic Growth Interlinkages in EU Agriculture," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(9), pages 1-14, May.
    25. Gholamreza Hajargasht & D.S. Prasada Rao, 2019. "Multilateral Index Number Systems for International Price Comparisons: Properties, Existence and Uniqueness," CEPA Working Papers Series WP032019, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    26. Niko Hauzenberger & Florian Huber & Luca Onorante, 2021. "Combining shrinkage and sparsity in conjugate vector autoregressive models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(3), pages 304-327, April.
    27. Ravi Bansal & Shane Miller & Dongho Song & Amir Yaron, 2019. "The Term Structure of Equity Risk Premia," NBER Working Papers 25690, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    28. Berg Tim Oliver, 2017. "Forecast accuracy of a BVAR under alternative specifications of the zero lower bound," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(2), pages 1-29, April.
    29. Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Domenico Giannone & Eric Qian & Argia M. Sbordone, 2021. "A Large Bayesian VAR of the United States Economy," Staff Reports 976, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    30. Ricco, Giovanni & Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia, 2018. "The Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 13396, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    31. Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis, 2012. "Large Time-Varying Parameter VARs," Working Paper series 11_12, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    32. Reichlin, Lucrezia & Giannone, Domenico & Modugno, Michele & Banbura, Marta, 2012. "Now-casting and the real-time data flow," CEPR Discussion Papers 9112, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    33. Anttonen, Jetro, 2018. "Nowcasting the Unemployment Rate in the EU with Seasonal BVAR and Google Search Data," ETLA Working Papers 62, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    34. Schorfheide, Frank & Aruoba, Boragan & Mlikota, Marko & Villalvazo, Sergio, 2021. "SVARs With Occasionally-Binding Constraints," CEPR Discussion Papers 15923, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    35. Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Maxime Leroux & Dalibor Stevanovic & Stephane Surprenant, 2020. "How is Machine Learning Useful for Macroeconomic Forecasting?," Working Papers 20-01, Chair in macroeconomics and forecasting, University of Quebec in Montreal's School of Management, revised Aug 2020.
    36. Follett, Lendie & Yu, Cindy, 2019. "Achieving parsimony in Bayesian vector autoregressions with the horseshoe prior," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 11(C), pages 130-144.
    37. Giacomo Rella, 2021. "The Fed, housing and household debt over time," Department of Economics University of Siena 850, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    38. Rebekka Gätjen & Melanie Schienle, 2015. "Measuring Connectedness of Euro Area Sovereign Risk," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2015-019, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    39. Benigno, Pierpaolo & Benati, Luca, 2023. "Gibson's Paradox and the Natural Rate of Interest," CEPR Discussion Papers 17959, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    40. Joshua C.C. Chan & Eric Eisenstat & Chenghan Hou & Gary Koop, 2018. "Composite likelihood methods for large Bayesian VARs with stochastic volatility," CAMA Working Papers 2018-26, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    41. Huber, Florian & Krisztin, Tamás & Piribauer, Philipp, 2014. "Forecasting Global Equity Indices Using Large Bayesian VARs," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 184, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    42. Martinez-Martin Jaime & Morris Richard & Onorante Luca & Piersanti Fabio Massimo, 2024. "Merging Structural and Reduced-Form Models for Forecasting," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 24(1), pages 399-437, January.
    43. Gary, Koop, 2013. "Using VARs and TVP-VARs with Many Macroeconomic Variables," SIRE Discussion Papers 2013-35, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    44. Michael W. McCracken & Joseph T. McGillicuddy & Michael T. Owyang, 2022. "Binary Conditional Forecasts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(3), pages 1246-1258, June.
    45. Warne, Anders, 2023. "DSGE model forecasting: rational expectations vs. adaptive learning," Working Paper Series 2768, European Central Bank.
    46. Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis & Davide Pettenuzzo, 2017. "Bayesian Compressed Vector Autoregressions," Working Paper series 17-32, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    47. Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Onorante, Luca & Momferatou, Daphne, 2010. "Short-Term Inflation Projections: a Bayesian Vector Autoregressive approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 7746, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    48. Marco Del Negro & Domenico Giannone & Marc Giannoni & Andrea Tambalotti, 2018. "Global trends in interest rates," Staff Reports 866, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    49. Nima Nonejad, 2021. "An Overview Of Dynamic Model Averaging Techniques In Time‐Series Econometrics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 566-614, April.
    50. Niko Hauzenberger, 2020. "Flexible Mixture Priors for Large Time-varying Parameter Models," Papers 2006.10088, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2020.
    51. Baumeister, Christiane & Korobilis, Dimitris & Lee, Thomas K., 2020. "Energy Markets and Global Economic Conditions," CEPR Discussion Papers 14580, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    52. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd, 2014. "No Arbitrage Priors, Drifting Volatilities, and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 9848, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    53. Antonio M. Conti & Andrea Nobili & Federico M. Signoretti, 2018. "Bank capital constraints, lending supply and economic activity," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1199, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    54. Carriero, Andrea & Kapetanios, George & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2012. "Forecasting government bond yields with large Bayesian vector autoregressions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 2026-2047.
    55. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2015. "Large Vector Autoregressions with Asymmetric Priors," Working Papers 759, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    56. Mario Giarda, 2023. "Government Purchases, the Labor Earnings Gap, andConsumption Dynamics," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 972, Central Bank of Chile.
    57. Cristina Fuentes-Albero & Leonardo Melosi, 2011. "Methods for Computing Marginal Data Densities from the Gibbs Output," Departmental Working Papers 201131, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    58. Moratis, Georgios & Sakellaris, Plutarchos, 2021. "Measuring the systemic importance of banks," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
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    60. Gupta, Rangan & Wohar, Mark, 2017. "Forecasting oil and stock returns with a Qual VAR using over 150years off data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 181-186.
    61. Bognanni, Mark & Zito, John, 2020. "Sequential Bayesian inference for vector autoregressions with stochastic volatility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    62. Andrea Carriero & Galvao, Ana Beatriz & Kapetanios, George, 2016. "A comprehensive evaluation of macroeconomic forecasting methods," EMF Research Papers 10, Economic Modelling and Forecasting Group.
    63. Ricardo Nunes & Ali Ozdagli & Jenny Tang, 2023. "Interest Rate Surprises: A Tale of Two Shocks," Discussion Papers 2320, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    64. Max Breitenlechner & Georgios Georgiadis & Ben Schumann, 2021. "What goes around comes around: How large are spillbacks from US monetary policy?," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2021_003, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    65. Luca Dedola & Giulia Rivolta & Livio Stracca, 2016. "If the Fed Sneezes, Who Catches a Cold?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2016, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    66. Gregor Bäurle & Rolf Scheufele, 2019. "Credit cycles and real activity: the Swiss case," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(6), pages 1939-1966, June.
    67. Ron Alquist & Lutz Kilian & Robert Vigfusson, 2011. "Forecasting the Price of Oil," Staff Working Papers 11-15, Bank of Canada.
    68. Costantini, Mauro & Gunter, Ulrich & Kunst, Robert M., 2014. "Forecast combinations in a DSGE-VAR lab," Economics Series 309, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    69. Thomas Hasenzagl & Filippo Pellegrino & Lucrezia Reichlin & Giovanni Ricco, 2020. "A Model of the Fed's View on Inflation," Papers 2006.14110, arXiv.org.
    70. Magnus Reif, 2020. "Macroeconomics, Nonlinearities, and the Business Cycle," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 87.
    71. Arias, Jonas E. & Rubio-Ramírez, Juan F. & Shin, Minchul, 2023. "Macroeconomic forecasting and variable ordering in multivariate stochastic volatility models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 1054-1086.
    72. Jean Boivin & Marc Giannoni & Dalibor Stevanovic, 2013. "Dynamic effects of credit shocks in a data-rich environment," Staff Reports 615, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    73. Loria, Francesca & Matthes, Christian & Wang, Mu-Chun, 2022. "Economic theories and macroeconomic reality," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 105-117.
    74. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2014. "Evaluating Conditional Forecasts from Vector Autoregressions," Working Papers 2014-25, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    75. Damian Stelmasiak & Grzegorz Szafrański, 2016. "Forecasting the Polish Inflation Using Bayesian VAR Models with Seasonality," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 8(1), pages 21-42, March.
    76. Ciccarelli, Matteo & Kuik, Friderike & Martínez Hernández, Catalina, 2023. "The asymmetric effects of weather shocks on euro area inflation," Working Paper Series 2798, European Central Bank.
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    361. Karau, Sören, 2021. "Monetary policy and Bitcoin," Discussion Papers 41/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    362. Patella, Valeria & Tancioni, Massimiliano, 2021. "Confidence Swings and Sovereign Risk Dynamics," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 195-206.
    363. Georgios Georgiadis & Gernot J. Müller & Ben Schumann, 2023. "Dollar Trinity and the Global Financial Cycle," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2058, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    364. Roth, Markus, 2020. "Partial pooling with cross-country priors: An application to house price shocks," Discussion Papers 06/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    365. Cross, Jamie L. & Hou, Chenghan & Poon, Aubrey, 2020. "Macroeconomic forecasting with large Bayesian VARs: Global-local priors and the illusion of sparsity," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 899-915.
    366. Mokinski, Frieder, 2017. "A severity function approach to scenario selection," Discussion Papers 34/2017, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    367. Narcissa Balta & Bořek Vašíček, 2020. "Financial channels and economic activity in the euro area: a large-scale Bayesian VAR approach," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 47(2), pages 431-451, May.
    368. Annika Camehl & Tomasz Wo'zniak, 2023. "Time-Varying Identification of Monetary Policy Shocks," Papers 2311.05883, arXiv.org, revised May 2024.
    369. Gary Koop & Stuart McIntyre & James Mitchell, 2020. "UK regional nowcasting using a mixed frequency vector auto‐regressive model with entropic tilting," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 183(1), pages 91-119, January.
    370. Bańbura, Marta & Brenna, Federica & Paredes, Joan & Ravazzolo, Francesco, 2021. "Combining Bayesian VARs with survey density forecasts: does it pay off?," Working Paper Series 2543, European Central Bank.
    371. Nadiia Shapovalenko, 2021. "A BVAR Model for Forecasting Ukrainian Inflation and GDP," Visnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine, National Bank of Ukraine, issue 251, pages 14-36.
    372. Jürgen Antony & D. Broer, 2015. "Euro area financial shocks and economic activity in The Netherlands," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 42(3), pages 571-595, August.
    373. Reuben Ellul, 2018. "Forecasting unemployment rates in Malta: A labour market flows approach," CBM Working Papers WP/03/2018, Central Bank of Malta.
    374. Rostagno, Massimo & Altavilla, Carlo & Carboni, Giacomo & Lemke, Wolfgang & Motto, Roberto & Saint Guilhem, Arthur & Yiangou, Jonathan, 2019. "A tale of two decades: the ECB’s monetary policy at 20," Working Paper Series 2346, European Central Bank.
    375. Thiago Revil T. Ferreira, 2022. "Cross-Sectional Financial Conditions, Business Cycles and The Lending Channel," International Finance Discussion Papers 1335, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    376. Clark, Todd E. & Doh, Taeyoung, 2014. "Evaluating alternative models of trend inflation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 426-448.
    377. Simon Gilchrist & Egon Zakrajsek & Cristina Fuentes Albero & Dario Caldara, 2013. "On the Identification of Financial and Uncertainty Shocks," 2013 Meeting Papers 965, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    378. Karau, Sören, 2023. "Monetary policy and Bitcoin," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    379. Ciccarelli, Matteo & Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Priftis, Romanos & Angelini, Elena & Bańbura, Marta & Bokan, Nikola & Fagan, Gabriel & Gumiel, José Emilio & Kornprobst, Antoine & Lalik, Magdalena & Mo, 2024. "ECB macroeconometric models for forecasting and policy analysis," Occasional Paper Series 344, European Central Bank.
    380. Perico Ortiz, Daniel, 2023. "Inflation news coverage, expectations and risk premium," FAU Discussion Papers in Economics 05/2023, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Institute for Economics.
    381. Domit, Sílvia & Monti, Francesca & Sokol, Andrej, 2016. "A Bayesian VAR benchmark for COMPASS," Bank of England working papers 583, Bank of England.
    382. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Martin Feldkircher & Florian Huber, 2014. "Forecasting with Bayesian Global Vector Autoregressive Models: A Comparison of Priors," Working Papers 189, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    383. Ute Volz & Martin Mandler & Michael Scharnagl, 2016. "Heterogeneity in Euro Area Monetary Policy Transmission: Results from a large Multi-Country BVAR," EcoMod2016 9609, EcoMod.
    384. Gregor Bäurle & Daniel Kaufmann, 2018. "Measuring Exchange Rate, Price, and Output Dynamics at the Effective Lower Bound," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 80(6), pages 1243-1266, December.
    385. Attinasi, Maria Grazia & Berardini, Francesco & Palazzo, Alessandra Anna, 2019. "Do public wages in the euro area explain private wage developments? An empirical investigation," Working Paper Series 2231, European Central Bank.

  29. Reichlin, Lucrezia & Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele, 2012. "Money, credit, monetary policy and the business cycle in the euro area," CEPR Discussion Papers 8944, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Leroi RAPUTSOANE, 2015. "Alternative Measures of Credit Extension for Countercyclical Buffer Decisions in South Africa," Turkish Economic Review, KSP Journals, vol. 2(4), pages 210-221, December.
    2. Victor Echevarria-Icaza & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2017. "Yields on sovereign debt, fragmentation and monetary policy transmission in the euro area: A GVAR approach," Working Papers del Instituto Complutense de Estudios Internacionales 1703, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Instituto Complutense de Estudios Internacionales.
    3. Ragna Alstadheim & Ørjan Robstad & Nikka Husom Vonen, 2017. "Financial imbalances, crisis probability and monetary policy in Norway," Working Paper 2017/21, Norges Bank.
    4. Bańbura, Marta & Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele, 2015. "Conditional forecasts and scenario analysis with vector autoregressions for large cross-sections," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 739-756.
    5. Antonio M. Conti & Andrea Nobili & Federico M. Signoretti, 2018. "Bank capital constraints, lending supply and economic activity," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1199, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    6. Bartoletto, Silvana & Chiarini, Bruno & Marzano, Elisabetta & Piselli, Paolo, 2019. "Business cycles, credit cycles, and asymmetric effects of credit fluctuations: Evidence from Italy for the period of 1861–2013," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-1.
    7. Gertrud Errit & Lenno Uuskula, 2013. "Euro Area monetary policy transmission in Estonia," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2013-7, Bank of Estonia, revised 09 Dec 2013.
    8. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Aastveit, Knut Are & Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd, 2016. "Have Standard VARs Remained Stable Since the Crisis?," CEPR Discussion Papers 11558, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Martin Mandler & Michael Scharnagl & Ute Volz, 2022. "Heterogeneity in Euro Area Monetary Policy Transmission: Results from a Large Multicountry BVAR Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(2-3), pages 627-649, March.
    10. Gert Peersman, 2011. "Macroeconomic Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy in the Euro Area," CESifo Working Paper Series 3589, CESifo.
    11. David Cobham & Yue Kang, 2012. "Financial Crisis And Quantitative Easing: Can Broad Money Tell Us Anything?," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 80, pages 54-76, September.
    12. Afanasyeva, Elena, 2012. "Atypical Behavior of Money and Credit: Evidence From Conditional Forecasts," VfS Annual Conference 2012 (Goettingen): New Approaches and Challenges for the Labor Market of the 21st Century 65405, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    13. Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2014. "Monetary Policy and Banks in the Euro Area: The Tale of Two Crises," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 39(PB), pages 387-400.
    14. Breitenlechner, Maximilian & Scharler, Johann, 2016. "The Bank Lending Channel and the Market for Banks' Wholesale Funding," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145679, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    15. Darracq-Paries, Matthieu & De Santis, Roberto A., 2015. "A non-standard monetary policy shock: The ECB's 3-year LTROs and the shift in credit supply," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 1-34.
    16. Barigozzi, Matteo, 2018. "On the stability of euro area money demand and its implications for monetary policy," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 87283, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    17. Mercè Sala-Rios & Teresa Torres-Solé & Mariona Farré-Perdiguer, 2016. "Credit and business cycles’ relationship: evidence from Spain," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 15(3), pages 149-171, December.
    18. Elena Deryugina & Alexey Ponomarenko, 2015. "A large Bayesian vector autoregression model for Russia," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps1, Bank of Russia.
    19. Sandra Eickmeier & Leonardo Gambacorta & Boris Hofmann, 2013. "Understanding Global Liquidity," BIS Working Papers 402, Bank for International Settlements.
    20. Philip Liu & Konstantinos Theodoridis & Haroon Mumtaz & Francesco Zanetti, 2019. "Changing Macroeconomic Dynamics at the Zero Lower Bound," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 391-404, July.
    21. Stefan Behrendt, 2016. "Taking Stock - Credit Measures in Monetary Transmission," Jena Economics Research Papers 2016-002, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    22. Gert Peersman, 2011. "Macroeconomic consequences of different types of credit market disturbances and non-conventional monetary policy in the euro area," 2011 Meeting Papers 333, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    23. Fiorelli, Cristiana & Meliciani, Valentina, 2019. "Economic growth in the era of unconventional monetary instruments: A FAVAR approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    24. Alvaro Ortiz Vidal-Abarca & Alfonso Ugarte Ruiz, 2015. "Introducing a New Early Warning System Indicator (EWSI) of banking crises," Working Papers 1502, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    25. Carlo Altavilla & Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza, 2014. "The Financial and Macroeconomic Effects of the OMT Announcements," CSEF Working Papers 352, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    26. Leroy, Aurélien, 2014. "Competition and the bank lending channel in Eurozone," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 296-314.
    27. Afanasyeva, Elena, 2013. "Atypical behavior of credit: Evidence from a monetary VAR," IMFS Working Paper Series 70, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    28. Reichlin, Lucrezia & Pill, Huw, 2014. "Exceptional policies for exceptional times: The ECB's response to the rolling crises of the Euro Area, and how it has brought u," CEPR Discussion Papers 10193, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    29. Samarina, Anna & Zhang, Lu & Bezemer, Dirk, 2017. "Credit cycle coherence in the eurozone: Was there a euro effect?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 77-98.
    30. Ciccarelli, Matteo & Ortega, Eva & Valderrama, Maria Teresa, 2012. "Heterogeneity and cross-country spillovers in macroeconomic-financial linkages," Working Paper Series 1498, European Central Bank.
    31. João Tovar Jalles, 2019. "Monetary Aggregates and Macroeconomic Performance: The Portuguese Escudo, 1911–1999," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(4), pages 719-740, October.
    32. Anton, Roman, 2015. "Monetary Development and Transmission in the Eurosystem," MPRA Paper 67323, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 08 Oct 2015.
    33. International Monetary Fund, 2014. "Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2014/232, International Monetary Fund.
    34. Stefan Behrendt, 2017. "Unconventional Monetary Policy Effects on Bank Lending in the Euro Area," Jena Economics Research Papers 2017-002, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    35. Henry, Jérôme & Zimmermann, Maik & Leber, Miha & Kolb, Markus & Grodzicki, Maciej & Amzallag, Adrien & Vouldis, Angelos & Hałaj, Grzegorz & Pancaro, Cosimo & Gross, Marco & Baudino, Patrizia & Sydow, , 2013. "A macro stress testing framework for assessing systemic risks in the banking sector," Occasional Paper Series 152, European Central Bank.
    36. Iñaki Aldasoro & Robert Unger, 2017. "External financing and economic activity in the euro area - why are bank loans special?," BIS Working Papers 622, Bank for International Settlements.
    37. Giulia RIVOLTA, 2014. "An Event Study Analysis of ECB Unconventional Monetary Policy," Departmental Working Papers 2014-02, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
    38. Nikolay Hristov & Oliver Hülsewig & Thomas Siemsen & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2019. "Restoring euro area monetary transmission: Which role for government bond rates?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 991-1021, September.
    39. Marzie Taheri Sanjani, 2014. "Financial Frictions in Data: Evidence and Impact," IMF Working Papers 2014/238, International Monetary Fund.
    40. G. Peersman, 2014. "The Effectiveness of Unconventional Monetary Policies," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 14/875, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    41. Guglielmo Forges Davanzati & Rosario Patalano & Guido Traficante, 2019. "The Italian economic stagnation in a Kaldorian theoretical perspective," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 36(3), pages 841-861, October.
    42. António Afonso & António Jorge Silva, 2014. "The Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the Euro Area: has it changed with the EMU? A VAR approach, with fiscal policy and financial stress considerations," Working Papers Department of Economics 2014/10, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    43. Matteo Farn'e & Angela Montanari, 2018. "A bootstrap test to detect prominent Granger-causalities across frequencies," Papers 1803.00374, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2018.
    44. Ute Volz & Martin Mandler & Michael Scharnagl, 2016. "Heterogeneity in Euro Area Monetary Policy Transmission: Results from a large Multi-Country BVAR," EcoMod2016 9609, EcoMod.
    45. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2012. "Disentangling the Channels of the 2007-2009 Recession," NBER Working Papers 18094, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

  30. Henry, Jerome & Giannone, Domenico & Lalik, Magdalena & Modugno, Michele, 2010. "An Area-Wide Real-Time Database for the Euro Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 7673, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Yutaka Kurihara, 2017. "Recent monetary policy effects on Japanese macroeconomy," Journal of Economic and Financial Studies (JEFS), LAR Center Press, vol. 5(5), pages 12-17, October.
    2. Michael Pfarrhofer, 2024. "Forecasts with Bayesian vector autoregressions under real time conditions," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(3), pages 771-801, April.
    3. Massimiliano Marcellino & Alberto Musso, 2010. "the Reliability of Real Time Estimates of the EURO Area Output Gap," Economics Working Papers ECO2010/06, European University Institute.
    4. Bańkowski, Krzysztof & Faria, Thomas & Schall, Robert, 2022. "How well-behaved are revisions to quarterly fiscal data in the euro area?," Working Paper Series 2676, European Central Bank.
    5. Yutaka Kurihara, 2016. "Can the Disparity between GDP and GDP Forecast Cause Economic Instability? The Recent Japanese Case," International Journal of Economics and Financial Research, Academic Research Publishing Group, vol. 2(8), pages 155-160, 08-2016.
    6. Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Onorante, Luca & Momferatou, Daphne, 2010. "Short-Term Inflation Projections: a Bayesian Vector Autoregressive approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 7746, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Galvao, Ana Beatriz & Mitchell, James, 2020. "Real-Time Perceptions of Historical GDP Data Uncertainty," EMF Research Papers 35, Economic Modelling and Forecasting Group.
    8. Jung, Alexander, 2017. "Forecasting broad money velocity," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 421-432.
    9. Nektarios A. Michail & George Thucydides, 2018. "Does Housing Wealth Affect Consumption? The Case of Cyprus," Cyprus Economic Policy Review, University of Cyprus, Economics Research Centre, vol. 12(2), pages 67-86, December.
    10. Ana Lamo, 2013. "Firms’ adjustment during times of crisis," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 18, pages 9-11.
    11. Hauzenberger Niko & Huber Florian & Pfarrhofer Michael & Zörner Thomas O., 2021. "Stochastic model specification in Markov switching vector error correction models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 25(2), pages 1-17, April.
    12. Matteo Farnè & Angela Montanari, 2022. "A Bootstrap Method to Test Granger-Causality in the Frequency Domain," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 59(3), pages 935-966, March.
    13. Alessi, Lucia & Balduzzi, Pierluigi & Savona, Roberto, 2019. "Anatomy of a Sovereign Debt Crisis: CDS Spreads and Real-Time Macroeconomic Data," Working Papers 2019-03, Joint Research Centre, European Commission.
    14. Olivier BIAU & Angela D´ELIA, 2010. "A Non-Balanced Survey-Based Indicator to Track Industrial Production," EcoMod2010 259600028, EcoMod.
    15. Emilia Tomczyk, 2013. "End of sample vs. real time data: perspectives for analysis of expectations," Working Papers 68, Department of Applied Econometrics, Warsaw School of Economics.
    16. Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Mikael Frenette & Karin Klieber, 2023. "From Reactive to Proactive Volatility Modeling with Hemisphere Neural Networks," Papers 2311.16333, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2024.
    17. Joan Paredes & Diego J. Pedregal & Javier J. Pérez, 2009. "A quarterly fiscal database for the euro area based on intra-annual fiscal information," Working Papers 0935, Banco de España.
    18. Pirschel, Inske, 2016. "Forecasting euro area recessions in real-time," Kiel Working Papers 2020, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    19. Jens Boysen‐Hogrefe, 2015. "Monetary Aggregates to Improve Early Output Gap Estimates in the Euro Area: An Empirical Assessment," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(7), pages 533-542, November.
    20. Enrico D'Elia, 2014. "Predictions vs. preliminary sample estimates: the case of eurozone quarterly GDP," Working Papers 2, Department of the Treasury, Ministry of the Economy and of Finance.
    21. Cimadomo, Jacopo, 2011. "Real-time data and fiscal policy analysis: a survey of the literature," Working Paper Series 1408, European Central Bank.
    22. Kenny, Geoff & Genre, Véronique & Meyler, Aidan & Timmermann, Allan, 2010. "Combining the forecasts in the ECB survey of professional forecasters: can anything beat the simple average?," Working Paper Series 1277, European Central Bank.
    23. Edward S. Knotek & Saeed Zaman, 2017. "Nowcasting U.S. Headline and Core Inflation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(5), pages 931-968, August.
    24. Cristina Conflitti & Christine De Mol & Domenico Giannone, 2012. "Optimal Combination of Survey Forecasts," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2012-023, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    25. Dmitry Gornostaev & Alexey Ponomarenko & Sergei Seleznev & Alexandra Sterkhova, 2021. "A Real-Time Historical Database of Macroeconomic Indicators for Russia," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps76, Bank of Russia.
    26. Bańbura, Marta & Leiva-León, Danilo & Menz, Jan-Oliver, 2021. "Do inflation expectations improve model-based inflation forecasts?," Discussion Papers 48/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    27. Julien Champagne & Guillaume Poulin-Bellisle & Rodrigo Sekkel, 2018. "Evaluating the Bank of Canada Staff Economic Projections Using a New Database of Real-Time Data and Forecasts," Staff Working Papers 18-52, Bank of Canada.
    28. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2014. "What Central Bankers Need To Know About Forecasting Oil Prices," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 55(3), pages 869-889, August.
    29. Katharina Glass, 2018. "Predictability of Euro Area Revisions," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201801, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.
    30. Mark Gertler & Peter Karadi, 2013. "Macroeconomic effects of large-scale asset purchase programs," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 18, pages 12-15.
    31. Marek Jarociński & Michele Lenza, 2018. "An Inflation‐Predicting Measure of the Output Gap in the Euro Area," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(6), pages 1189-1224, September.
    32. Modugno, Michele, 2011. "Nowcasting inflation using high frequency data," Working Paper Series 1324, European Central Bank.
    33. Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Mikael Frenette & Karin Klieber, 2023. "From Reactive to Proactive Volatility Modeling with Hemisphere Neural Networks," Working Papers 23-04, Chair in macroeconomics and forecasting, University of Quebec in Montreal's School of Management, revised Nov 2023.
    34. Smets, Frank & Warne, Anders & Wouters, Raf, 2013. "Professional forecasters and the real-time forecasting performance of an estimated new keynesian model for the euro area," Working Paper Series 1571, European Central Bank.
    35. Michael Pfarrhofer & Anna Stelzer, 2019. "The international effects of central bank information shocks," Papers 1912.03158, arXiv.org.
    36. Mazzi Gian Luigi & Mitchell James & Carausu Florabela, 2021. "Measuring and Communicating the Uncertainty in Official Economic Statistics," Journal of Official Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 37(2), pages 289-316, June.
    37. Gergely Ganics & Florens Odendahl, 2019. "Bayesian VAR forecasts, survey information and structural change in the euro area," Working Papers 1948, Banco de España.
    38. McAdam, Peter & Warne, Anders, 2018. "Euro area real-time density forecasting with financial or labor market frictions," Working Paper Series 2140, European Central Bank.
    39. Zakipour-Saber, Shayan, 2019. "Forecasting in the euro area: The role of the US long rate," Economic Letters 5/EL/19, Central Bank of Ireland.
    40. Pirschel, Inske, 2015. "Forecasting Euro Area Recessions in real-time with a mixed-frequency Bayesian VAR," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113031, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    41. D'Elia, Enrico, 2012. "A case study: the revisions and forecasts of Euro Area quarterly GDP," MPRA Paper 40264, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    42. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Musso, Alberto, 2010. "Real time estimates of the euro area output gap: reliability and forecasting performance," Working Paper Series 1157, European Central Bank.
    43. Thomas Brand, 2017. "Vitesse et composition des ajustements budgétaires en équilibre général : une analyse appliquée à la zone euro," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 68(HS1), pages 159-182.
    44. Klose, Jens, 2011. "Asymmetric Taylor reaction functions of the ECB: An approach depending on the state of the economy," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 149-163, August.
    45. McAdam, Peter & Warne, Anders, 2020. "Density forecast combinations: the real-time dimension," Working Paper Series 2378, European Central Bank.
    46. M. Mogliani & T. Ferrière, 2016. "Rationality of announcements, business cycle asymmetry, and predictability of revisions. The case of French GDP," Working papers 600, Banque de France.
    47. Jung, Alexander & El-Shagi, Makram & Giesen, Sebastian, 2013. "Does Central Bank Staff Beat Private Forecasters?," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79925, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    48. Lombardi, Marco J. & Maier, Philipp, 2011. "Forecasting economic growth in the euro area during the Great Moderation and the Great Recession," Working Paper Series 1379, European Central Bank.
    49. Bańbura, Marta & Bobeica, Elena, 2023. "Does the Phillips curve help to forecast euro area inflation?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 364-390.
    50. Marios Polemidiotis & Maria C. Papageorghiou & Maria G. Mithillou, 2018. "Measuring the Competitiveness of the Cyprus Economy: the Case of Unit Labour Costs," Working Papers 2018-2, Central Bank of Cyprus.
    51. Barbara Rossi & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2017. "Macroeconomic uncertainty indices for the Euro Area and its individual member countries," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 41-62, August.
    52. Vermeulen, Philip, 2012. "Quantifying the qualitative responses of the output purchasing managers index in the US and the Euro area," Working Paper Series 1417, European Central Bank.
    53. Marek RUSNAK, 2013. "Revisions to the Czech National Accounts: Properties and Predictability," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 63(3), pages 244-261, July.
    54. Naoko Hara & Hibiki Ichiue, 2010. "Real-time Analysis on Japan's Labor Productivity," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 10-E-7, Bank of Japan.
    55. Chalmovianský, Jakub & Porqueddu, Mario & Sokol, Andrej, 2020. "Weigh(t)ing the basket: aggregate and component-based inflation forecasts for the euro area," Working Paper Series 2501, European Central Bank.
    56. Victor Lopez-Perez, 2016. "Macroeconomic Forecast Uncertainty In The Euro Area," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 11(1), pages 9-41, March.
    57. Gregory de Walque & Thomas Lejeune & Ansgar Rannenberg, 2023. "Empirical DSGE model evaluation with interest rate expectations measures and preferences over safe assets," Working Paper Research 433, National Bank of Belgium.
    58. Natacha Valla & Thomas Brand & Sébastien Doisy, 2014. "A New Architecture for Public Investment in Europe," CEPII Policy Brief 2014-04, CEPII research center.
    59. Denis Shibitov & Mariam Mamedli, 2021. "Forecasting Russian Cpi With Data Vintages And Machine Learning Techniques," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps70, Bank of Russia.
    60. Asimakopoulos, Stylianos & Lalik, Magdalena & Paredes, Joan & Salvado García, José, 2023. "GDP revisions are not cool: the impact of statistical agencies’ trade-off," Working Paper Series 2857, European Central Bank.
    61. Nicolas Pinkwart, 2011. "Zur Stabilität von Saisonbereinigungsverfahren: Eine Echtzeitdaten-Analyse am Beispiel BV4.1 und X-12-ARIMA," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer;Deutsche Statistische Gesellschaft - German Statistical Society, vol. 5(2), pages 125-144, August.
    62. Ronald Indergand & Stefan Leist, 2014. "A Real-Time Data Set for Switzerland," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 150(IV), pages 331-352, December.
    63. Stefano Neri & Tiziano Ropele, 2012. "Imperfect Information, Real‐Time Data and Monetary Policy in the Euro Area," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(561), pages 651-674, June.
    64. Ansgar Belke & Jens Klose, 2011. "Does the ECB Rely on a Taylor Rule During the Financial Crisis? Comparing Ex-post and Real Time Data with Real Time Forecasts," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 147-171, September.
    65. Gabe de Bondt, 2012. "Nowcasting: Trust the Purchasing Managers’ Index or wait for the flash GDP estimate?," EcoMod2012 3896, EcoMod.
    66. Smets, Frank & Warne, Anders & Wouters, Rafael, 2014. "Professional forecasters and real-time forecasting with a DSGE model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 981-995.
    67. Matteo Ciccarelli & Angela Maddaloni, 2013. "Heterogeneous transmission mechanism and the credit channel in the euro area," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 18, pages 2-8.
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    69. Cristea, R. G., 2020. "Can Alternative Data Improve the Accuracy of Dynamic Factor Model Nowcasts?," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 20108, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
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  31. Reichlin, Lucrezia & Giannone, Domenico & Banbura, Marta, 2010. "Nowcasting," CEPR Discussion Papers 7883, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. David Havrlant & Peter Tóth & Julia Wörz, 2016. "On the optimal number of indicators – nowcasting GDP growth in CESEE," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 4, pages 54-72.
    2. Martin Feldkircher & Florian Huber & Josef Schreiner & Marcel Tirpák & Peter Tóth & Julia Wörz, 2015. "Bridging the information gap: small-scale nowcasting models of GDP growth for selected CESEE countries," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 56-75.

  32. Reichlin, Lucrezia & Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele, 2010. "Market freedom and the global recession," CEPR Discussion Papers 7884, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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    1. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Saravelos, George, 2012. "Can Leading Indicators Assess Country Vulnerability? Evidence from the 2008-09 Global Financial Crisis," Scholarly Articles 9642637, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
    2. Jean Imbs, 2010. "The First Global Recession in Decades," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) hal-00612515, HAL.
    3. Bose, Udichibarna & MacDonald, Ronald & Tsoukas, Serafeim, 2015. "Education and the local equity bias around the world," SIRE Discussion Papers 2015-76, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    4. Martina Jasova & Caterina Mendicino & Ettore Panetti & José-Luis Peydró & Dominik Supera, 2021. "Monetary policy, labor income redistribution and the credit channel: Evidence from matched employer-employee and credit registers," Economics Working Papers 1832, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Mar 2023.
    5. Theo S. Eicher & Charis Christofides & Chris Papageorgiou, 2012. "Did Established Early Warning Signals Predict the 2008 Crises?," Working Papers UWEC-2012-05, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
    6. Branimir Jovanovic, 2012. "How Policy Actions Affect Short-term Post-crisis Recovery?," CEIS Research Paper 253, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 05 Oct 2012.
    7. Gian-Maria Milesi-Ferretti & Cedric Tille, 2011. "The Great Retrenchment: International Capital Flows During the Global Financial Crisis," Working Papers 382011, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    8. Feldkircher, Martin, 2014. "The determinants of vulnerability to the global financial crisis 2008 to 2009: Credit growth and other sources of risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 19-49.
    9. Sentance, Andrew & Taylor, Mark P. & Wieladek, Tomasz, 2012. "How the UK economy weathered the financial storm," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 102-123.
    10. Bruce N. Lehmann & David M. Modest, 1985. "The Empirical Foundations of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory I: The Empirical Tests," NBER Working Papers 1725, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Udichibarna Bose & Ronald MacDonald & Serafeim Tsoukas, 2014. "The role of education in equity portfolios during the recent financial crisis," Working Papers 2014_17, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    12. Mr. Gian M Milesi-Ferretti & Mr. Philip R. Lane, 2010. "The Cross-Country Incidence of the Global Crisis," IMF Working Papers 2010/171, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Matteo Chinazzi & Giorgio Fagiolo & Javier A. Reyes & Stefano Schiavo, 2012. "Post-Mortem Examination of the International Financial Network," Department of Economics Working Papers 1202, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia.
    14. Hagen, Tobias, 2013. "Impact of national financial regulation on macroeconomic and fiscal performance after the 2007 financial stock: Econometric analyses based on cross-country data," Working Paper Series 02, Frankfurt University of Applied Sciences, Faculty of Business and Law.
    15. Livia Chitu, 2013. "Was Unofficial Dollarisation/Euroisation an Amplifier of the ‘Great Recession’ of 2007–2009 in Emerging Economies?," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 55(2), pages 233-265, June.
    16. Caprio, Gerard Jr. & D'Apice, Vincenzo & Ferri, Giovanni & Puopolo, Giovanni Walter, 2010. "Macro Financial Determinants of the Great Financial Crisis: Implications for Financial Regulation," MPRA Paper 26088, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Mark F. J. Steel, 2020. "Model Averaging and Its Use in Economics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 58(3), pages 644-719, September.
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    22. Pomfret, Richard, 2014. "European crises and the Asian economies," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31, pages 71-81.
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    24. Lin, Kun-Li & Doan, Anh Tuan & Doong, Shuh-Chyi, 2016. "Changes in ownership structure and bank efficiency in Asian developing countries: The role of financial freedom," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 19-34.
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    30. Shehzad, Choudhry Tanveer & De Haan, Jakob, 2013. "Was the 2007 crisis really a global banking crisis?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 113-124.
    31. Chen Ray-Bing & Lee Kuo-Jung & Chen Yi-Chi & Chu Chi-Hsiang, 2017. "On the determinants of the 2008 financial crisis: a Bayesian approach to the selection of groups and variables," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(5), pages 1-17, December.
    32. Angelos Kotios & George Galanos, 2012. "The International Economic Crisis and the Crisis of Economics," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(7), pages 869-885, July.
    33. Ali Mirzaei & Ali M Kutan, 2016. "Does Bank Diversification Improve Output Growth? Evidence from the Recent Global Crisis," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 467-481, September.
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    35. Altug, Sumru & Neyapti, Bilin & Emin, Mustafa, 2012. "Institutions and Business Cycles," CEPR Discussion Papers 8728, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    36. Davide Furceri & Mr. Jonathan David Ostry, 2021. "Initial Output Losses from the Covid-19 Pandemic: Robust Determinants," IMF Working Papers 2021/018, International Monetary Fund.
    37. Gregory Levieuge & Yannick Lucotte & Florian Pradines-Jobet, 2017. "Central banks preferences and banking sector vulnerability," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2017-3, Bank of Estonia, revised 25 May 2017.
    38. Lane, Philip R. & McQuade, Peter, 2013. "Domestic credit growth and international capital flows," Working Paper Series 1566, European Central Bank.
    39. Bezemer, Dirk & Zhang, Lu, 2019. "Credit composition and the severity of post-crisis recessions," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 52-66.
    40. Olivier J. Blanchard & Mitali Das & Hamid Faruqee, 2010. "The Initial Impact of the Crisis on Emerging Market Countries," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 41(1 (Spring), pages 263-323.
    41. Chiţu, Livia, 2012. "Was unofficial dollarisation/euroisation an amplifier of the 'Great Recession' of 2007-09 in emerging economies," Working Paper Series 1473, European Central Bank.
    42. Nicholas Crafts & Peter Fearon, 2010. "Lessons from the 1930s Great Depression," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 26(3), pages 285-317, Autumn.
    43. Stephen Cecchetti & Michael R King & James Yetman, 2011. "Weathering the financial crisis: good policy or good luck?," BIS Working Papers 351, Bank for International Settlements.
    44. Porshakov, A. & Ponomarenko, A. & Sinyakov, A., 2016. "Nowcasting and Short-Term Forecasting of Russian GDP with a Dynamic Factor Model," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 30(2), pages 60-76.
    45. Pami Dua & Divya Tuteja, 2023. "Synchronization in Cycles of China and India During Recent Crises: A Markov Switching Analysis," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 21(2), pages 317-337, June.
    46. Katarzyna Sum, 2013. "The Impact of Banking Regulation on the Economic Performance of EU Countries in 2007-2009," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 4, pages 5-19.
    47. Hagen, Tobias, 2013. "The impact of national financial regulation on macroeconomic and fiscal performance after the 2007 financial shock: Econometric analyses based on cross-country data," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 7, pages 1-44.
    48. Fabrizio Coricelli & Zorobabel Bicaba, 2015. "Learning to open up: Capital account liberalizations in the post-Bretton Woods era," Working Papers halshs-01267264, HAL.
    49. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Martin Feldkircher, 2012. "Drivers of Output Loss during the 2008–09 Crisis: A Focus on Emerging Europe," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 46-64.
    50. Lane, Philip & ,, 2010. "International Differences in Fiscal Policy During the Global Crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 8009, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    51. Gunes Kamber & Christoph Thoenissen, 2011. "Financial intermediation and the internationalbusiness cycle: The case of small countries with big banks," CAMA Working Papers 2011-22, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    52. Kelvin Onwuka & Anayochukwu Basil Chukwu & Tobechi Faith Agbanike, 2021. "Current account and financial reforms: Evidence from sub‐Saharan Africa," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 4303-4314, July.
    53. Chortareas, Georgios E. & Girardone, Claudia & Ventouri, Alexia, 2013. "Financial freedom and bank efficiency: Evidence from the European Union," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1223-1231.
    54. Georgiadis, Georgios, 2016. "Determinants of global spillovers from US monetary policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 41-61.
    55. Yongming Shi & Khalid Ahmed & Sudharshan Reddy Paramati, 2021. "Determinants of stock market development and price volatility in ASEAN plus three countries: The role of institutional quality," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 560-572, January.
    56. Mirzaei, Ali & Grosse, Robert, 2019. "The interaction of quantity and quality of finance: Did it make industries more resilient to the recent global financial crisis?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 493-512.
    57. Rey, Hélène & Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier & Truempler, Kai Alexander, 2011. "The Financial Crisis and the Geography of Wealth Transfers," CEPR Discussion Papers 8567, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    58. Chortareas, Georgios & Kapetanios, George & Ventouri, Alexia, 2016. "Credit market freedom and cost efficiency in US state banking," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 173-185.
    59. Güneş Kamber & Christoph Thoenissen, 2013. "Financial Exposure and the International Transmission of Financial Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(s2), pages 127-158, December.
    60. Wilms, Philip & Swank, Job & de Haan, Jakob, 2018. "Determinants of the real impact of banking crises: A review and new evidence," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 54-70.
    61. Hallwood, Paul & MacDonald, Ronald, 2014. "Picking the Right Budget Constraint for Scotland," SIRE Discussion Papers 2015-27, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
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    63. Andrew K. Rose, 2012. "International Financial Integration and Crisis Intensity," Macroeconomics Working Papers 23195, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    64. Mr. Marc G Quintyn & Ms. Rosaria Vega Pansini & Donato Masciandaro, 2011. "The Economic Crisis: Did Financial Supervision Matter?," IMF Working Papers 2011/261, International Monetary Fund.
    65. Zhang, Lu & Bezemer, Dirk, 2015. "A global house of debt effect? Mortgages and post-crisis recessions in fifty economies," Research Report 15009-GEM, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
    66. Aizenman, Joshua & Pasricha, Gurnain Kaur, 2010. "Determinants of Financial Stress and Recovery during the Great Recession," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt5cf9t5cd, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    67. Samarina, Anna & Bezemer, Dirk, 2016. "Do capital flows change domestic credit allocation?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 98-121.
    68. Ivan Diaz-Rainey & John Ashton & Maz Yap & Murat Genc & Rosalind Whiting, 2015. "The determinants of regulatory responses to risks from financial innovation: Survey evidence from G20," Working Papers 15001, Bangor Business School, Prifysgol Bangor University (Cymru / Wales).
    69. Sok-Gee Chan & Mohd Zaini Abd Karim, 2016. "Financial market regulation, country governance, and bank efficiency: Evidence from East Asian countries," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 10(1), March.
    70. Perugini, Cristiano & Hölscher, Jens & Collie, Simon, 2013. "Inequality, credit expansion and financial crises," MPRA Paper 51336, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    71. ATI Abdessatar & BEN JAZIA Rachida, 2013. "Institutional Quality And Financial Stress: Experience From Emerging Country," Studies in Business and Economics, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 8(3), pages 5-20, December.
    72. Chowdhury, M. Ashraful Ferdous & Haque, M. Mahmudul & Alhabshi, Syed Othman & Masih, Abul Mansur M., 2016. "Socioeconomic Development and Its Effect on Performance of Islamic Banks: Dynamic Panel Approaches," MPRA Paper 71888, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    73. Imbs, Jean & Pauwels, Laurent, 2019. "Fundamental Moments," CEPR Discussion Papers 13662, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    74. Hagen, Tobias, 2013. "Impact of national financial regulation on macroeconomic and fiscal performance after the 2007 financial shock: Econometric analyses based on cross-country data," Economics Discussion Papers 2013-26, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    75. Natalya Martynova & Mr. Lev Ratnovski & Mr. Razvan Vlahu, 2015. "Bank Profitability and Risk-Taking," IMF Working Papers 2015/249, International Monetary Fund.
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  33. Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Onorante, Luca & Momferatou, Daphne, 2010. "Short-Term Inflation Projections: a Bayesian Vector Autoregressive approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 7746, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2016. "Model uncertainty in Panel Vector Autoregressive models," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 115-131.
    2. Anastasios Evgenidis & Stephanos Papadamou, 2021. "The impact of unconventional monetary policy in the euro area. Structural and scenario analysis from a Bayesian VAR," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 5684-5703, October.
    3. Gefang, Deborah & Koop, Gary & Poon, Aubrey, 2023. "Forecasting using variational Bayesian inference in large vector autoregressions with hierarchical shrinkage," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 346-363.
    4. Christian P Pinshi, 2022. "Ciblage des prévisions d'inflation : Un nouveau cadre pour la politique monétaire ?," Working Papers hal-03548273, HAL.
    5. Deborah Gefang & Gary Koop & Aubrey Poon, 2019. "Variational Bayesian inference in large Vector Autoregressions with hierarchical shrinkage," CAMA Working Papers 2019-08, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    6. Bańbura, Marta & Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele, 2015. "Conditional forecasts and scenario analysis with vector autoregressions for large cross-sections," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 739-756.
    7. Siena Daniele, & Zago Riccardo., 2021. "Job Polarization and the Flattening of the Price Phillips Curve," Working papers 819, Banque de France.
    8. Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia & Ricco, Giovanni, 2018. "Bayesian vector autoregressions," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 87393, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    9. Karlsson, Sune & Österholm, Pär, 2018. "Is the US Phillips Curve Stable? Evidence from Bayesian VARs," Working Papers 2018:5, Örebro University, School of Business.
    10. Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis, 2012. "Large Time-Varying Parameter VARs," Working Paper series 11_12, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    11. Marek Jarociński & Bartosz Maćkowiak, 2014. "Choosing variables in macroeconomic modelling," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 20, pages 5-8.
    12. Joshua C.C. Chan & Eric Eisenstat & Chenghan Hou & Gary Koop, 2018. "Composite likelihood methods for large Bayesian VARs with stochastic volatility," CAMA Working Papers 2018-26, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    13. Gary, Koop, 2013. "Using VARs and TVP-VARs with Many Macroeconomic Variables," SIRE Discussion Papers 2013-35, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    14. Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis & Davide Pettenuzzo, 2017. "Bayesian Compressed Vector Autoregressions," Working Paper series 17-32, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    15. Nima Nonejad, 2021. "An Overview Of Dynamic Model Averaging Techniques In Time‐Series Econometrics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 566-614, April.
    16. Rachidi Kotchoni & Dalibor Stevanovic, 2016. "Forecasting U.S. Recessions and Economic Activity," Working Papers hal-04141569, HAL.
    17. Antonio M. Conti & Andrea Nobili & Federico M. Signoretti, 2018. "Bank capital constraints, lending supply and economic activity," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1199, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    18. Joshua C C Chan & Eric Eisenstat & Gary Koop, 2014. "Large Bayesian VARMAs," Working Papers 1409, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
    19. Reichold, Karsten & Wagner, Martin & Damjanovic, Milan & Drenkovska, Marija, 2022. "Sources and Channels of Nonlinearities and Instabilities of the Phillips Curve: Results for the Euro Area and Its Member States," IHS Working Paper Series 40, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    20. Petrella, Ivan & Antolin-Diaz, Juan & Rubio-Ramírez, Juan Francisco, 2018. "Structural Scenario Analysis with SVARs," CEPR Discussion Papers 12579, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    21. Conti, Antonio M., 2017. "Has the FED Fallen behind the Curve? Evidence from VAR models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 164-168.
    22. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2014. "Evaluating Conditional Forecasts from Vector Autoregressions," Working Papers 2014-25, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    23. Damian Stelmasiak & Grzegorz Szafrański, 2016. "Forecasting the Polish Inflation Using Bayesian VAR Models with Seasonality," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 8(1), pages 21-42, March.
    24. Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2012. "Prior Selection for Vector Autoregressions," NBER Working Papers 18467, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Marcus P. A. Cobb, 2020. "Aggregate density forecasting from disaggregate components using Bayesian VARs," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 287-312, January.
    26. Zeyyad Mandalinci, 2015. "Forecasting Inflation in Emerging Markets: An Evaluation of Alternative Models," CReMFi Discussion Papers 3, CReMFi, School of Economics and Finance, QMUL.
    27. Zheng, Tingguo & Ye, Shiqi & Hong, Yongmiao, 2023. "Fast estimation of a large TVP-VAR model with score-driven volatilities," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    28. Angela Capolongo & Claudia Pacella, 2019. "Forecasting inflation in the euro area: countries matter!," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1224, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    29. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd, 2011. "Bayesian VARs: Specification Choices and Forecast Accuracy," CEPR Discussion Papers 8273, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    30. Kevin Moran & Dalibor Stevanovic & Stephane Surprenant, 2024. "Risk Scenarios and Macroeconomic Forecasts," Working Papers 24-01, Chair in macroeconomics and forecasting, University of Quebec in Montreal's School of Management, revised Apr 2024.
    31. Beck, Günter W. & Carstensen, Kai & Menz, Jan-Oliver & Schnorrenberger, Richard & Wieland, Elisabeth, 2023. "Nowcasting consumer price inflation using high-frequency scanner data: Evidence from Germany," Discussion Papers 34/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    32. Todd E. Clark & Saeed Zaman, 2011. "Food and energy price shocks: what other prices are affected?," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Aug.
    33. Ralf Brüggemann & Christian Kascha, 2017. "Directed Graphs and Variable Selection in Large Vector Autoregressive Models," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2017-06, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
    34. Cobb, Marcus P A, 2017. "Forecasting Economic Aggregates Using Dynamic Component Grouping," MPRA Paper 81585, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    35. Kenny, Geoff & Genre, Véronique & Meyler, Aidan & Timmermann, Allan, 2010. "Combining the forecasts in the ECB survey of professional forecasters: can anything beat the simple average?," Working Paper Series 1277, European Central Bank.
    36. Ciccarelli, Matteo & Osbat, Chiara, 2017. "Low inflation in the euro area: Causes and consequences," Occasional Paper Series 181, European Central Bank.
    37. Martin Mandler & Michael Scharnagl, 2020. "Bank loan supply shocks and alternative financing of non‐financial corporations in the euro area," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 88(S1), pages 126-150, September.
    38. Tumala, Mohammed M & Olubusoye, Olusanya E & Yaaba, Baba N & Yaya, OlaOluwa S & Akanbi, Olawale B, 2017. "Forecasting Nigerian Inflation using Model Averaging methods: Modelling Frameworks to Central Banks," MPRA Paper 88754, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Feb 2018.
    39. Guido BUlligan & Eliana Viviano, 2016. "Has the wage Phillips curve changed in the euro area?," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 355, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    40. Luca Brugnolini, 2018. "Forecasting Deflation Probability in the EA: A Combinatoric Approach," CBM Working Papers WP/01/2018, Central Bank of Malta.
    41. Ngomba Bodi, Francis Ghislain & Bikai, Landry, 2019. "Les prévisions conditionnelles sont-elles plus précises que les prévisions inconditionnelles dans les projections de croissance et d’inflation en zone CEMAC ? [Should conditional forecasts of infla," MPRA Paper 116432, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    42. Berg, Tim O. & Henzel, Steffen R., 2015. "Point and density forecasts for the euro area using Bayesian VARs," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1067-1095.
    43. Joshua Chan, 2023. "BVARs and Stochastic Volatility," Papers 2310.14438, arXiv.org.
    44. Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George, 2023. "Oil price assumptions for macroeconomic policy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    45. Anastasios Evgenidis & Masashige Hamano & Wessel N. Vermeulen, 2021. "Economic consequences of follow-up disasters: lessons from the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake," Working Papers 2111, Waseda University, Faculty of Political Science and Economics.
    46. Onorante, Luca & Raftery, Adrian E., 2016. "Dynamic model averaging in large model spaces using dynamic Occam׳s window," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 2-14.
    47. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Andrea Gazzani, 2023. "Natural gas and the macroeconomy: not all energy shocks are alike," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1428, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    48. Michael W. McCracken & Joseph T. McGillicuddy, 2019. "An empirical investigation of direct and iterated multistep conditional forecasts," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(2), pages 181-204, March.
    49. Marek Jarociński & Michele Lenza, 2018. "An Inflation‐Predicting Measure of the Output Gap in the Euro Area," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(6), pages 1189-1224, September.
    50. Kalin Nikolov & Alexander Popov, 2014. "The sovereign-bank nexus," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 20, pages 2-4.
    51. Andrejs Bessonovs & Olegs Krasnopjorovs, 2020. "Short-Term Inflation Projections Model and Its Assessment in Latvia," Working Papers 2020/01, Latvijas Banka.
    52. Dimitrios P. Louzis, 2017. "Macroeconomic and credit forecasts during the Greek crisis using Bayesian VARs," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(2), pages 569-598, September.
    53. Osbat, Chiara & D'Agostino, Antonello & Modugno, Michele, 2016. "A global trade model for the euro area," Working Paper Series 1986, European Central Bank.
    54. Eser, Fabian & Lane, Philip & Moretti, Laura & Osbat, Chiara & Karadi, Peter, 2020. "The Phillips Curve at the ECB," VfS Annual Conference 2020 (Virtual Conference): Gender Economics 224627, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    55. Lenza Michele & Warmedinger Thomas, 2011. "A Factor Model for Euro-area Short-term Inflation Analysis," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 231(1), pages 50-62, February.
    56. Francesco Bianchi & Giovanni Nicolo & Dongho Song, 2023. "Inflation and Real Activity over the Business Cycle," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-038, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    57. Giovanni Amisano & Oreste Tristani, 2011. "The euro area sovereign crisis: monitoring spillovers and contagion," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 14, pages 2-4.
    58. Chan, Joshua C.C. & Eisenstat, Eric & Strachan, Rodney W., 2020. "Reducing the state space dimension in a large TVP-VAR," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 218(1), pages 105-118.
    59. Michele Lenza, 2011. "Revisiting the information content of core inflation," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 14, pages 11-13.
    60. Lenza, Michele & Moutachaker, Inès & Paredes, Joan, 2023. "Density forecasts of inflation: a quantile regression forest approach," Working Paper Series 2830, European Central Bank.
    61. Julius Stakenas, 2018. "Slicing up inflation: analysis and forecasting of Lithuanian inflation components," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 56, Bank of Lithuania.
    62. Jarociński, Marek & Bobeica, Elena, 2017. "Missing disinflation and missing inflation: the puzzles that aren't," Working Paper Series 2000, European Central Bank.
    63. Cobb, Marcus P A, 2017. "Joint Forecast Combination of Macroeconomic Aggregates and Their Components," MPRA Paper 76556, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    64. Bhattacharya, Rudrani & Kapoor, Mrigankshi, 2020. "Forecasting Consumer Price Index Inflation in India: Vector Error Correction Mechanism Vs. Dynamic Factor Model Approach for Non-Stationary Time Series," Working Papers 20/323, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    65. Michal Franta & Jozef Baruník & Roman Horváth & Katerina Smídková, 2014. "Are Bayesian Fan Charts Useful? The Effect of Zero Lower Bound and Evaluation of Financial Stability Stress Tests," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(1), pages 159-188, March.
    66. Eric Eisenstat & Joshua C.C. Chan & Rodney W. Strachan, 2018. "Reducing Dimensions in a Large TVP-VAR," Working Paper Series 43, Economics Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    67. Dimitris P. Louzis, 2014. "Macroeconomic and credit forecasts in a small economy during crisis: A large Bayesian VAR approach," Working Papers 184, Bank of Greece.
    68. Souhaïb Chamseddine Zardi, 2017. "Forecasting Inflation in a Macroeconomic Framework: An Application to Tunisia," IHEID Working Papers 07-2017, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    69. Angelini, Elena & Lalik, Magdalena & Lenza, Michele & Paredes, Joan, 2019. "Mind the gap: A multi-country BVAR benchmark for the Eurosystem projections," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1658-1668.
    70. Stefan Laseen & Marzie Taheri Sanjani, 2016. "Did the Global Financial Crisis Break the U.S. Phillips Curve?," IMF Working Papers 2016/126, International Monetary Fund.
    71. Kirstin Hubrich & Frauke Skudelny, 2016. "Forecast Combination for Euro Area Inflation - A Cure in Times of Crisis?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-104, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    72. Chalmovianský, Jakub & Porqueddu, Mario & Sokol, Andrej, 2020. "Weigh(t)ing the basket: aggregate and component-based inflation forecasts for the euro area," Working Paper Series 2501, European Central Bank.
    73. Garegnani, Lorena & Gómez Aguirre, Maximiliano, 2018. "Forecasting Inflation in Argentina," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 8940, Inter-American Development Bank.
    74. Giovanni Lombardo & Luca Dedola, 2011. "Financial frictions, financial integration and the international propagation of shocks," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 14, pages 5-10.
    75. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Martin Feldkircher & Florian Huber, 2016. "Forecasting with Global Vector Autoregressive Models: a Bayesian Approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(7), pages 1371-1391, November.
    76. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2010. "Modeling Inflation After the Crisis," Working Papers 2010-1, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    77. Kenny, Geoff & Morgan, Julian, 2011. "Some lessons from the financial crisis for the economic analysis," Occasional Paper Series 130, European Central Bank.
    78. Hauber, Philipp, 2021. "How useful is external information from professional forecasters? Conditional forecasts in large factor models," EconStor Preprints 251469, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    79. Koop, Gary, 2014. "Forecasting with dimension switching VARs," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 280-290.
    80. Cobb, Marcus P A, 2018. "Improving Underlying Scenarios for Aggregate Forecasts: A Multi-level Combination Approach," MPRA Paper 88593, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    81. Joshua C.C. Chan & Rodney W. Strachan, 2023. "Bayesian State Space Models In Macroeconometrics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(1), pages 58-75, February.
    82. Ashwin Madhou & Tayushma Sewak & Imad Moosa & Vikash Ramiah, 2017. "GDP nowcasting: application and constraints in a small open developing economy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(38), pages 3880-3890, August.
    83. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2010. "Modeling Inflation After the Crisis," NBER Working Papers 16488, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    84. Misha van Beek, 2020. "Consistent Calibration of Economic Scenario Generators: The Case for Conditional Simulation," Papers 2004.09042, arXiv.org.
    85. L. Vanessa Smith & Nori Tarui & Takashi Yamagata, 2020. "Global fossil fuel consumption and carbon pricing: Forecasting and counterfactual analysis under alternative GDP scenarios," RIEEM Discussion Paper Series 2004, Research Institute for Environmental Economics and Management, Waseda University.
    86. Emmanuel O. Akande & Elijah O. Akanni & Oyedamola F. Taiwo & Jeremiah D. Joshua & Abel Anthony, 2023. "Predicting inflation component drivers in Nigeria: a stacked ensemble approach," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 1-32, January.
    87. Liebermann, Joelle, 2012. "Real-time forecasting in a data-rich environment," Research Technical Papers 07/RT/12, Central Bank of Ireland.
    88. Luca Brugnolini & Giuseppe Ragusa, 2022. "Euro Area Deflationary Pressure Index," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 60(3), pages 883-900, October.
    89. Genre, Véronique & Kenny, Geoff & Meyler, Aidan & Timmermann, Allan, 2013. "Combining expert forecasts: Can anything beat the simple average?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 108-121.
    90. Elena Angelini & Michele Ca' Zorzi, 2014. "External and macroeconomic adjustment in Spain and Germany," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 20, pages 9-12.
    91. Solikin M. Juhro & Bernard Njindan Iyke, 2019. "Forecasting Indonesian Inflation Within An Inflation-Targeting Framework: Do Large-Scale Models Pay Off?," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 22(4), pages 423-436, December.
    92. Andras Chabin & Sébastien Lamproye & Milan Výškrabka, 2020. "Are We More Accurate? Revisiting the European Commission’s Macroeconomic Forecasts," European Economy - Discussion Papers 128, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    93. Frank Smets, 2010. "Commetary: modeling inflation after the crisis," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 221-234.
    94. Cobb, Marcus P A, 2017. "Aggregate Density Forecasting from Disaggregate Components Using Large VARs," MPRA Paper 76849, University Library of Munich, Germany.

  34. Michele Lenza & Giorgio Primiceri & Domenico Giannone, 2010. "Prior Selection for Bayesian VARs," 2010 Meeting Papers 508, Society for Economic Dynamics.

    Cited by:

    1. Kaabia, Olfa & Abid, Ilyes & Mkaouar, Farid, 2016. "The dark side of the black gold shock onto Europe: One stock's joy is another stock's sorrow," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 642-654.

  35. Reichlin, Lucrezia & Pill, Huw & Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele, 2010. "Non-standard Monetary Policy Measures and Monetary Developments," CEPR Discussion Papers 8125, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. De Santis, Roberto A. & Favero, Carlo A. & Roffia, Barbara, 2008. "Euro area money demand and international portfolio allocation: a contribution to assessing risks to price stability," Working Paper Series 926, European Central Bank.
    2. M. Hashem Pesaran & Ron P. Smith, 2012. "Counterfactual Analysis in Macroeconometrics: An Empirical Investigation into the Effects of Quantitative Easing," Working Paper series 37_12, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    3. Villa, Stefania, 2013. "Financial frictions in the euro area: a Bayesian assessment," Working Paper Series 1521, European Central Bank.
    4. Drudi, Francesco & Durré, Alain & Mongelli, Francesco Paolo, 2012. "The interplay of economic reforms and monetary policy: the case of the euro area," Working Paper Series 1467, European Central Bank.
    5. Harald Hau & Sandy Lai, 2014. "Asset Allocation and Monetary Policy: Evidence from the Eurozone," CESifo Working Paper Series 5005, CESifo.
    6. Maciej Ryczkowski, 2015. "Is deflation trap a serious threat? Case study of FED, ECB and NBP," Ekonomia i Prawo, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 14(2), pages 243-259, June.
    7. Fratzscher, Marcel & Rieth, Malte, 2015. "Monetary policy, bank bailouts and the sovereign-bank risk nexus in the euro area," CEPR Discussion Papers 10370, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. John H. Rogers & Chiara Scotti & Jonathan H. Wright, 2014. "Evaluating Asset-Market Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy: A Cross-Country Comparison," International Finance Discussion Papers 1101, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. Schuknecht, Ludger, 2019. "Fiscal-financial vulnerabilities," SAFE White Paper Series 62, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    10. Michael Joyce & David Miles & Andrew Scott & Dimitri Vayanos, 2012. "Quantitative Easing and Unconventional Monetary Policy – an Introduction," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(564), pages 271-288, November.
    11. David ARISTEI & Manuela Gallo, 2012. "Interest Rate Pass-Through in the Euro Area during the Financial Crisis: a Multivariate Regime-Switching Approach," Quaderni del Dipartimento di Economia, Finanza e Statistica 107/2012, Università di Perugia, Dipartimento Economia.
    12. Kristóf Lehmann & Róbert Mátrai & György Pulai, 2013. "Measures taken by the Federal Reserve System and the European Central Bank during the crisis," MNB Bulletin (discontinued), Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 8(Special), pages 98-107, October.
    13. David Cobham & Yue Kang, 2012. "Financial Crisis And Quantitative Easing: Can Broad Money Tell Us Anything?," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 80, pages 54-76, September.
    14. Ricco, Giovanni & Callegari, Giovanni & Cimadomo, Jacopo, 2014. "Signals from the Government: Policy Uncertainty and the Transmission of Fiscal Shocks," MPRA Paper 56136, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Martin, Feldkircher & Thomas, Gruber & Florian, Huber, 2019. "International effects of a compression of euro area yield curves," Working Papers in Economics 2019-1, University of Salzburg.
    16. Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2014. "Monetary Policy and Banks in the Euro Area: The Tale of Two Crises," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 39(PB), pages 387-400.
    17. Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Huw Pill & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2012. "The ECB and the Interbank Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(564), pages 467-486, November.
    18. Carlo Altavilla & Miguel Boucinha & José-Luis Peydró, 2019. "Monetary Policy and Bank Profitability in a Low Interest Rate Environment," Working Papers 1101, Barcelona School of Economics.
    19. Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2013. "The ECB and the banks: the tale of two crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 9647, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    20. Sophocles Brissimis & Eugenie Garganas & Stephen G. Hall, 2012. "Consumer credit in an era of financial liberalisation: an overreaction to repressed demand?," Working Papers 148, Bank of Greece.
    21. Carlo Altavilla & Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza, 2014. "The Financial and Macroeconomic Effects of the OMT Announcements," CSEF Working Papers 352, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    22. Kotaro Ishi & Mr. Kenji Fujita & Mr. Mark R. Stone, 2011. "Should Unconventional Balance Sheet Policies Be Added to the Central Bank toolkit? a Review of the Experience so Far," IMF Working Papers 2011/145, International Monetary Fund.
    23. Afanasyeva, Elena, 2013. "Atypical behavior of credit: Evidence from a monetary VAR," IMFS Working Paper Series 70, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    24. Leila Simona TALANI, 2014. "The Political Economy of Italy in the EMU: What Went Wrong?," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 133-149, December.
    25. Philipp Roderweis & Jamel Saadaoui & Francisco Serranito, 2023. "Is Quantitative Easing Productive? The Role of Bank Lending in the Monetary Transmission Process," Working Papers hal-04159825, HAL.
    26. Brini, Alessio & Tedeschi, Gabriele & Tantari, Daniele, 2023. "Reinforcement learning policy recommendation for interbank network stability," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    27. Lubomira Gertler, 2015. "Interactions of Unconventional Monetary Policy Measures with the Euro Area Yield Curve," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 65(2), pages 106-126, March.
    28. Pablo Burriel & Alessandro Galesi, 2016. "Uncovering the heterogeneous effects of ecb unconventional monetary policies across euro area countries," Working Papers 1631, Banco de España.
    29. Hlebik Sviatlana & Verga Giovanni, 2015. "The European Central Bank Quantitative Policy and Its Consistency with the Demand for Liquidity," Scientific Annals of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 62(3), pages 425-451, November.
    30. Christian Glocker & Pascal Towbin, 2012. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Reserve Requirements," WIFO Working Papers 420, WIFO.
    31. Marco Casiraghi & Eugenio Gaiotti & Lisa Rodano & Alessandro Secchi, 2013. "The impact of unconventional monetary policy on the Italian economy during the sovereign debt crisis," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 203, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    32. Arnold, Ivo J.M. & Soederhuizen, Beau, 2018. "Bank stability and refinancing operations during the crisis: Which way causality?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 79-89.
    33. Martina Cecioni & Giuseppe Ferrero & Alessandro Secchi, 2011. "Unconventional Monetary Policy in Theory and in Practice," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 102, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    34. Qianying Chen & Andrew Filardo & Dong He & Feng Zhu, 2012. "International spillovers of central bank balance sheet policies," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Are central bank balance sheets in Asia too large?, volume 66, pages 220-264, Bank for International Settlements.
    35. Reichlin, Lucrezia & Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele, 2012. "Money, credit, monetary policy and the business cycle in the euro area," CEPR Discussion Papers 8944, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    36. Abbassi, Puriya & Linzert, Tobias, 2012. "The effectiveness of monetary policy in steering money market rates during the financial crisis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 945-954.
    37. Giulia RIVOLTA, 2014. "An Event Study Analysis of ECB Unconventional Monetary Policy," Departmental Working Papers 2014-02, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
    38. Renne, Jean-Paul, 2016. "A tractable interest rate model with explicit monetary policy rates," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 251(3), pages 873-887.
    39. Đorđe Đukić & Mališa Đukić, 2011. "The Influence of Interbank Money Market Stress Levels on Credit Markets During the Postcrisis Period in US And Euro Area," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 56(189), pages 7-26, April – J.
    40. Alexandros Skouralis, 2023. "The Role of Systemic Risk Spillovers in the Transmission of Euro Area Monetary Policy," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 34(5), pages 1079-1106, November.
    41. A Durré & H Pill, 2012. "Central Bank balance sheets as policy tools," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Are central bank balance sheets in Asia too large?, volume 66, pages 193-213, Bank for International Settlements.
    42. Recchioni, Maria Cristina & Tedeschi, Gabriele, 2017. "From bond yield to macroeconomic instability: A parsimonious affine model," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 262(3), pages 1116-1135.
    43. Falagiarda, Matteo & Reitz, Stefan, 2013. "Announcements of ECB unconventional programs: Implications for the sovereign risk of Italy," Kiel Working Papers 1866, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    44. Falagiarda, Matteo & Reitz, Stefan, 2015. "Announcements of ECB unconventional programs: Implications for the sovereign spreads of stressed euro area countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 276-295.
    45. Stephanos Papadamou & Eleftherios Spyromitros & Nikolaos A. Kyriazis, 2018. "Quantitative easing effects on commercial bank liability and government yields in UK: A threshold cointegration approach," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 353-371, April.
    46. Milošević Andriana & Jemović Mirjana, 2017. "Non-Standard Measures of the Monetary Policy – Mechanism for Overcoming Problems in the Implementation of the Neoliberal Concept of Monetary Policy During a Financial Crisis," Economic Themes, Sciendo, vol. 55(4), pages 465-480, December.
    47. Yılmaz, Derya, 2015. "Unconventional Monetary Policies in the Eurozone: Considering Theoretical Backgrounds and Policy Outcomes," Business and Economics Research Journal, Uludag University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, vol. 6(3), pages 51-68, July.
    48. António Afonso & António Jorge Silva, 2014. "The Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the Euro Area: has it changed with the EMU? A VAR approach, with fiscal policy and financial stress considerations," Working Papers Department of Economics 2014/10, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    49. Jean-Claude Trichet, 2013. "Unconventional Monetary Policy Measures: Principles-Conditions-Raison d’etre," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(1), pages 229-250, January.
    50. Bank for International Settlements, 2016. "Expanding the boundaries of monetary policy in Asia and the Pacific," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 88.
    51. Anindya Banerjee & Victor Bystrov & Paul Mizen, 2017. "Structural Factor Analysis of Interest Rate Pass Through In Four Large Euro Area Economies," Working Papers in Economics 17/07, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
    52. Marco Casiraghi & Eugenio Gaiotti & Lisa Rodano & Alessandro Secchi, 2016. "ECB Unconventional Monetary Policy and the Italian Economy during the Sovereign Debt Crisis," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 12(2), pages 269-315, June.
    53. Maciej Ryczkowski, 2015. "Ewolucja pogladow Miltona Friedmana, a ocena polityki pienieznej Fed i EBC w okresie kryzysu finansowego," Working Papers 168/2015, Institute of Economic Research, revised Dec 2015.
    54. Paul Mizen, 2016. "Comments on "Financial globalisation and monetary independence"," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Expanding the boundaries of monetary policy in Asia and the Pacific, volume 88, pages 227-230, Bank for International Settlements.
    55. Maria Cristina Recchioni & Gabriele Tedeschi, 2016. "From bond yield to macroeconomic instability: The effect of negative interest rates," Working Papers 2016/06, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).

  36. Reichlin, Lucrezia & Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele, 2009. "Business Cycles in the Euro Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 7124, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Douglas Sutherland & Peter Hoeller & Balázs Égert & Oliver Röhn, 2010. "Counter-cyclical Economic Policy," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 760, OECD Publishing.
    2. Alberto Caruso & Lucrezia Reichlin & Giovanni Ricco, 2019. "Financial and fiscal interaction in the euro area crisis: this time was different," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03403269, HAL.
    3. Martin Gächter & Aleksandra Riedl & Doris Ritzberger-Grünwald, 2012. "Business Cycle Synchronization in the Euro Area and the Impact of the Financial Crisis," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 33-60.
    4. Merih Uctum & Remzi Uctum & Chu-Ping C Vijverberg, 2021. "The European growth synchronization through crises and structural changes," Post-Print hal-03319011, HAL.
    5. Bańbura, Marta & Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele, 2015. "Conditional forecasts and scenario analysis with vector autoregressions for large cross-sections," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 739-756.
    6. Beyer, Robert & Milivojevic, Lazar, 2021. "Dynamics and synchronization of global equilibrium interest rates," IMFS Working Paper Series 146, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    7. Melisso Boschi & Massimiliano Marzo & Simone Salotti, 2013. "Domestic Versus International Determinants Of European Business Cycles: A GVAR Approach," CAMA Working Papers 2013-28, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    8. Zouri, Stéphane, 2019. "Business cycles,bilateral trade and international financial intergration : Evidence from Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS)," MPRA Paper 98748, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Julius Agbor Agbor, 2013. "The Future of the CEMAC CFA FRANC," Eurasian Journal of Economics and Finance, Eurasian Publications, vol. 1(1), pages 1-17.
    10. Fritz Breuss, 2009. "10 Jahre WWU – Erfolge, Schwächen und Herausforderungen," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 82(1), pages 61-84, January.
    11. Ms. Natalia T. Tamirisa & Alain N. Kabundi & Ms. Deniz O Igan & Mr. Francisco d Nadal De Simone & Marcelo Pinheiro, 2009. "Three Cycles: Housing, Credit, and Real Activity," IMF Working Papers 2009/231, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Fritz Breuss, 2009. "Ten Years of EMU – Achievements, Weaknesses, Challenges," Austrian Economic Quarterly, WIFO, vol. 14(1), pages 49-72, April.
    13. Marc-Alexandre Sénégas, 2010. "La théorie des zones monétaires optimales au regard de l'euro : Quels enseignements après dix années d'union économique et monétaire en Europe ?," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 120(2), pages 379-419.
    14. Jean Imbs & Laurent L. Pauwels, 2020. "High Order Openness," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2020_009, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    15. Fendel, Ralf & Neumann, Christian, 2021. "Tail risk in the European sovereign bond market during the financial crises: Detecting the influence of the European Central Bank," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    16. Fabio C. Bagliano & Claudio Morana, 2010. "The effects of US economic and financial crises on euro area convergence," Working papers 15, Former Department of Economics and Public Finance "G. Prato", University of Torino.
    17. Veaceslav Grigoras & Irina Eusignia Stanciu, 2016. "New evidence on the (de)synchronisation of business cycles: Reshaping the European business cycle," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 147, pages 27-52.
    18. Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi & Jean Imbs & Jumana Saleheen, 2016. "Finance and Synchronization," Discussion Papers 1622, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    19. Gabriel Jimenez & Steven Ongena & Jose-Luis Peydro & Jesus Saurina, 2012. "Credit Supply and Monetary Policy: Identifying the Bank Balance-Sheet Channel with Loan Applications," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(5), pages 2301-2326, August.
    20. Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem & Papaioannou, Elias & Peydró, José-Luis, 2010. "Financial regulation, financial globalization and the synchronization of economic activity," Working Paper Series 1221, European Central Bank.
    21. Sebnem Kalemli-Özcan, 2015. "Spillovers to Emerging Markets during Global Financial Crisis," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Claudio Raddatz & Diego Saravia & Jaume Ventura (ed.),Global Liquidity, Spillovers to Emerging Markets and Policy Responses, edition 1, volume 20, chapter 9, pages 281-314, Central Bank of Chile.
    22. Verstegen, Loes & van Groezen, Bas & Meijdam, Lex, 2017. "Benefits of EMU Participation : Estimates using the Synthetic Control Method," Discussion Paper 2017-032, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    23. HIRATA Hideaki & Ayhan KOSE & Christopher OTROK, 2013. "Regionalization vs. Globalization," Discussion papers 13004, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    24. Parsley, David & Popper, Helen, 2019. "GDP Synchronicity and Risk Sharing Channels in a Monetary Union: Blue State and Red States," MPRA Paper 98981, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    25. Khalid Rashid, Alkhater & Syed Abul, Basher, 2015. "The oil cycle, the Federal Reserve, and the monetary and exchange rate policies of Qatar," MPRA Paper 65900, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    26. Enders, Zeno & Jung, Philip & Müller, Gernot J., 2013. "Has the Euro changed the business cycle?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 189-211.
    27. Reichlin, Lucrezia & Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele, 2009. "Business Cycles in the Euro Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 7124, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  38. Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & Saverio Simonelli, 2009. "Nowcasting Euro Area Economic Activity in Real-Time: The Role of Confidence Indicator," Working Papers ECARES 2009_021, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.

    Cited by:

    1. Michele Modugno & Lucrezia Reichlin & Domenico Giannone & Marta Banbura, 2012. "Nowcasting with Daily Data," 2012 Meeting Papers 555, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Antonello D'Agostino & Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Michele Modugno, 2015. "Nowcasting Business Cycles: a Bayesian Approach to Dynamic Heterogeneous Factor Models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-66, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Reichlin, Lucrezia & Giannone, Domenico & Modugno, Michele & Banbura, Marta, 2012. "Now-casting and the real-time data flow," CEPR Discussion Papers 9112, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Götz, T.B. & Hecq, A.W. & Urbain, J.R.Y.J., 2014. "Combining distributions of real-time forecasts: An application to U.S. growth," Research Memorandum 027, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).
    5. Lenza, Michele & Cimadomo, Jacopo & Giannone, Domenico & Monti, Francesca & Sokol, Andrej, 2021. "Nowcasting with Large Bayesian Vector Autoregressions," CEPR Discussion Papers 15854, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. David de Antonio Liedo, 2014. "Nowcasting Belgium," Working Paper Research 256, National Bank of Belgium.
    7. Cascaldi-Garcia, Danilo & Ferreira, Thiago R.T. & Giannone, Domenico & Modugno, Michele, 2024. "Back to the present: Learning about the euro area through a now-casting model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 661-686.
    8. Stelios Bekiros & Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Jose Arreola-Hernandez & Mobeen Ur Rehman, 2018. "Directional predictability and time-varying spillovers between stock markets and economic cycles," Post-Print hal-01996787, HAL.
    9. Mili, Mehdi & Sahut, Jean-Michel & Teulon, Frédéric, 2012. "Non linear and asymmetric linkages between real growth in the Euro area and global financial market conditions: New evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 734-741.
    10. Raïsa Basselier & David Antonio Liedo & Geert Langenus, 2018. "Nowcasting Real Economic Activity in the Euro Area: Assessing the Impact of Qualitative Surveys," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 14(1), pages 1-46, April.
    11. Radoslaw Sobko & Maria Klonowska-Matynia, 2021. "The Relationship between the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and Economic Growth: The Case for Poland," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(Special 1), pages 198-219.
    12. Bhattacharya, Rudrani & Pandey, Radhika & Veronese, Giovanni, 2011. "Tracking India Growth in Real Time," Working Papers 11/90, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    13. Martha Banbura & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2010. "Nowcasting," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2010-021, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    14. Brunhes-Lesage, Véronique & Darné, Olivier, 2012. "Nowcasting the French index of industrial production: A comparison from bridge and factor models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2174-2182.
    15. Jean-michel Sahut & Medhi Mili & Frédéric Teulon, 2012. "What is the linkage between real growth in the Euro area and global financial market conditions?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(3), pages 2464-2480.
    16. Deicy J. Cristiano & Manuel D. Hernández & José David Pulido, 2012. "Pronósticos de corto plazo en tiempo real para la actividad económica colombiana," Borradores de Economia 724, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    17. Emilian DOBRESCU, 2020. "Self-fulfillment degree of economic expectations within an integrated space: The European Union case study," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 5-32, December.
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    19. Arioli, Rodolfo & Bates, Colm & Dieden, Heinz Christian & Duca, Ioana & Friz, Roberta & Gayer, Christian & Kenny, Geoff & Meyler, Aidan & Pavlova, Iskra, 2017. "EU consumers’ quantitative inflation perceptions and expectations: an evaluation," Occasional Paper Series 186, European Central Bank.
    20. Alessandro Girardi & Roberto Golinelli & Carmine Pappalardo, 2017. "The role of indicator selection in nowcasting euro-area GDP in pseudo-real time," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 79-99, August.
    21. Marco Rubilar-González & Gabriel Pino, 2018. "Are Euro-Area expectations about recession phases effective to anticipate consequences of economic crises?," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 9(2), pages 141-161, June.
    22. Cem Cakmakli & Hamza Demircan, 2020. "Using Survey Information for Improving the Density Nowcasting of US GDP with a Focus on Predictive Performance during Covid-19 Pandemic," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 2016, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    23. Aaron G. Grech & Reuben Ellul, 2021. "Are the European Commission’s Business and Consumer Survey Results Coincident Indicators for Maltese Economic Activity?," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 17(1), pages 91-108, April.
    24. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry & Oleg Kitov, 2013. "Forecasting and Nowcasting Macroeconomic Variables: A Methodological Overview," Economics Series Working Papers 674, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
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    27. Amstad, Marlene & Fischer, Andreas M., 2010. "Monthly pass-through ratios," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(7), pages 1202-1213, July.
    28. Aaron G. Grech, "undated". "The European Commission’s business and consumer surveys and Maltese macroeconomic trends," CBM Policy Papers PP/05/2019, Central Bank of Malta.
    29. George Kapetanios & Fotis Papailias, 2018. "Big Data & Macroeconomic Nowcasting: Methodological Review," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers ESCoE DP-2018-12, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
    30. Daniel Kaufmann & Rolf Scheufele, 2015. "Business tendency surveys and macroeconomic fluctuations," KOF Working papers 15-378, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    31. Caruso, Alberto, 2019. "Macroeconomic news and market reaction: Surprise indexes meet nowcasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1725-1734.
    32. Dimitrios D. Thomakos & Fotis Papailias, 2014. "“Out of Sync”: The Breakdown of Economic Sentiment Cycles in the EU," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(1), pages 131-150, February.
    33. Jon Ellingsen & Vegard H. Larsen & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2022. "News media versus FRED‐MD for macroeconomic forecasting," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(1), pages 63-81, January.
    34. Caruso, Alberto, 2018. "Nowcasting with the help of foreign indicators: The case of Mexico," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 160-168.
    35. Cristea, R. G., 2020. "Can Alternative Data Improve the Accuracy of Dynamic Factor Model Nowcasts?," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 20108, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.

  39. Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Bańbura, Marta, 2008. "Large Bayesian VARs," Working Paper Series 966, European Central Bank.

    Cited by:

    1. Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2016. "Model uncertainty in Panel Vector Autoregressive models," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 115-131.
    2. Joshua C.C. Chan & Angelia L. Grant, 2016. "Reconciling output gaps: unobserved components model and Hodrick-Prescott filter," CAMA Working Papers 2016-44, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    3. Alberto Caruso & Lucrezia Reichlin & Giovanni Ricco, 2019. "Financial and fiscal interaction in the euro area crisis: this time was different," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03403269, HAL.
    4. Mumtaz, Haroon & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2017. "Common and country specific economic uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 205-216.
    5. Haroon Mumtaz & Alexandra Solovyeva & Elena Vasilieva, 2012. "Asset prices, credit and the Russian economy," Joint Research Papers 1, Centre for Central Banking Studies, Bank of England.
    6. Joshua C. C. Chan & Liana Jacobi & Dan Zhu, 2020. "Efficient selection of hyperparameters in large Bayesian VARs using automatic differentiation," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(6), pages 934-943, September.
    7. Henzel, Steffen R. & Mayr, Johannes, 2013. "The mechanics of VAR forecast pooling—A DSGE model based Monte Carlo study," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 1-24.
    8. Mackowiak, Bartosz & Jarocinski, Marek, 2013. "Granger-Causal-Priority and Choice of Variables in Vector Autoregressions," CEPR Discussion Papers 9686, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Joshua C. C. Chan & Gary Koop & Xuewen Yu, 2024. "Large Order-Invariant Bayesian VARs with Stochastic Volatility," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(2), pages 825-837, April.
    10. Fornaro, Paolo, 2015. "Forecasting U.S. Recessions with a Large Set of Predictors," MPRA Paper 62973, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Exterkate, Peter & Groenen, Patrick J.F. & Heij, Christiaan & van Dijk, Dick, 2016. "Nonlinear forecasting with many predictors using kernel ridge regression," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 736-753.
    12. Joshua C. C. Chan & Xuewen Yu, 2022. "Fast and Accurate Variational Inference for Large Bayesian VARs with Stochastic Volatility," Papers 2206.08438, arXiv.org.
    13. Pooyan Amir-Ahmadi & Christian Matthes & Mu-Chun Wang, 2020. "Choosing Prior Hyperparameters: With Applications to Time-Varying Parameter Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(1), pages 124-136, January.
    14. Gary Koop, 2011. "Forecasting with Medium and Large Bayesian VARs," Working Papers 1117, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
    15. Ferrari Minesso, Massimo & Pagliari, Maria Sole, 2023. "No country is an island. International cooperation and climate change," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    16. Tallman, Ellis W. & Zaman, Saeed, 2020. "Combining survey long-run forecasts and nowcasts with BVAR forecasts using relative entropy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 373-398.
    17. Salzmann, Leonard, 2020. "The Impact of Uncertainty and Financial Shocks in Recessions and Booms," VfS Annual Conference 2020 (Virtual Conference): Gender Economics 224588, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    18. Gefang, Deborah & Koop, Gary & Poon, Aubrey, 2023. "Forecasting using variational Bayesian inference in large vector autoregressions with hierarchical shrinkage," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 346-363.
    19. García, Javier Sánchez & Rambaud, Salvador Cruz, 2023. "Macrofinancial determinants of volatility transmission in a network of European sovereign debt markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    20. Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis, 2018. "Forecasting with High-Dimensional Panel VARs," Working Paper series 18-20, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    21. Francesca Monti, 2015. "Can a data-rich environment help identify the sources of model misspecification?," Discussion Papers 1505, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    22. Wolters, Maik H., 2013. "Evaluating point and density forecasts of DSGE models," Economics Working Papers 2013-03, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    23. Davide Pettenuzzo & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2014. "Optimal portfolio choice under decision-based model combinations," Working Paper 2014/15, Norges Bank.
    24. Carlo Pizzinelli & Konstantinos Theodoridis & Francesco Zanetti, 2018. "State Dependence in Labor Market Fluctuations: Evidence,Theory, and Policy Implications," BCAM Working Papers 1801, Birkbeck Centre for Applied Macroeconomics.
    25. Scott Brave & R. Andrew Butters & Alejandro Justiniano, 2016. "Forecasting Economic Activity with Mixed Frequency Bayesian VARs," Working Paper Series WP-2016-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    26. Mumtaz, Haroon & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2018. "Dynamic Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Macroeconomic Volatility," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2018/21, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
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    3. Mario Forni & Luca Gambetti & Marco Lippi & Luca Sala, 2017. "Noise Bubbles," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 127(604), pages 1940-1976, September.
    4. Moench, Emanuel & Soofi-Siavash, Soroosh, 2022. "What moves treasury yields?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(3), pages 1016-1043.
    5. GUO-FITOUSSI, Liang, 2013. "A Comparison of the Finite Sample Properties of Selection Rules of Factor Numbers in Large Datasets," MPRA Paper 50005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Sivec, Vasja, 2016. "Monetary, fiscal and oil shocks: Evidence based on mixed frequency structural FAVARs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 193(2), pages 335-348.
    7. Davide Brignone & Alessandro Franconi & Marco Mazzali, 2023. "Robust Impulse Responses using External Instruments: the Role of Information," Papers 2307.06145, arXiv.org.
    8. Barigozzi, Matteo & Conti, Antonio & Luciani, Matteo, 2012. "Do Euro area countries respond asymmetrically to the common monetary policy?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 43344, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
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    10. Mario Forni & Luca Gambetti, 2010. "Macroeconomic Shocks and the Business Cycle: Evidence from a Structural Factor Model," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 040, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics "Marco Biagi".
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    28. Nikolaus Hautsch & Fuyu Yang, 2014. "Bayesian Stochastic Search for the Best Predictors: Nowcasting GDP Growth," University of East Anglia Applied and Financial Economics Working Paper Series 056, School of Economics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..
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    30. Daniel Aaronson & Scott A. Brave & Michael Fogarty & Ezra Karger & Spencer D. Krane, 2021. "Tracking U.S. Consumers in Real Time with a New Weekly Index of Retail Trade," Working Paper Series WP-2021-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, revised 18 Jun 2021.
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    375. Götz, Thomas B. & Hecq, Alain & Urbain, Jean-Pierre, 2016. "Combining forecasts from successive data vintages: An application to U.S. growth," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 61-74.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem & Papaioannou, Elias & Peydró, José-Luis, 2010. "Financial regulation, financial globalization and the synchronization of economic activity," Working Paper Series 1221, European Central Bank.
    2. Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem & Papaioannou, Elias & Perri, Fabrizio, 2013. "Global banks and crisis transmission," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 495-510.
    3. Kalemli-Özcan, Sebnem & Papaioannou, Elias & Peydró, José-Luis, 2009. "Financial Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization," CEPR Discussion Papers 7292, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Bergin, Paul R. & Pyun, Ju Hyun, 2016. "International portfolio diversification and multilateral effects of correlations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 52-71.
    5. Sebnem Kalemli-Özcan, 2014. "Spillovers to emerging markets during global financial crisis," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 17(2), pages 26-47, August.
    6. Rudiger Ahrend & Antoine Goujard, 2012. "International Capital Mobility and Financial Fragility - Part 6. Are all Forms of Financial Integration Equally Risky in Times of Financial Turmoil?: Asset Price Contagion During the Global Financial ," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 969, OECD Publishing.
    7. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Elias Papaioannou & José Luis Peydró, 2010. "Financial Regulation, Integration and Synchronization of Economic Activity," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1005, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum, revised Apr 2010.
    8. Bogdan Murarasu & Alina Bobasu, 2014. "Output Spillovers from Trade and Financial Linkages in Central and Eastern European Countries: A Panel Analysis," The Review of Finance and Banking, Academia de Studii Economice din Bucuresti, Romania / Facultatea de Finante, Asigurari, Banci si Burse de Valori / Catedra de Finante, vol. 6(2), pages 081-096, December.
    9. Ahrend, Rudiger & Goujard, Antoine, 2014. "Are all forms of financial integration equally risky? Asset price contagion during the global financial crisis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 14(C), pages 35-53.

  43. Reichlin, Lucrezia & Camba-Mendez, Gonzalo & Angelini, Elena & Rünstler, Gerhard & Giannone, Domenico, 2008. "Short-term Forecasts of Euro Area GDP Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 6746, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Lamprou, Dimitra, 2016. "Nowcasting GDP in Greece: The impact of data revisions and forecast origin on model selection and performance," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 14(PA), pages 93-102.
    2. Antonello D'Agostino & Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Michele Modugno, 2015. "Nowcasting Business Cycles: a Bayesian Approach to Dynamic Heterogeneous Factor Models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-66, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Maximo Camacho & Rafael Domenech, 2010. "MICA-BBVA: A Factor Model of Economic and Financial Indicators for Short-term GDP Forecasting," Working Papers 1021, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    4. Helena Rodríguez, 2014. "Un indicador de la evolución del PIB uruguayo en tiempo real," Documentos de trabajo 2014009, Banco Central del Uruguay.
    5. Marie Bessec, 2013. "Short-term forecasts of French GDP: A dynamic factor model with targeted predictors," Post-Print hal-01515605, HAL.
    6. Reichlin, Lucrezia & Giannone, Domenico & Modugno, Michele & Banbura, Marta, 2012. "Now-casting and the real-time data flow," CEPR Discussion Papers 9112, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Claudia Foroni & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2013. "A survey of econometric methods for mixed-frequency data," Working Paper 2013/06, Norges Bank.
    8. Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guegan & Patrick Rakotomarolahy, 2010. "GDP nowcasting with ragged-edge data: a semi-parametric modeling," Post-Print halshs-00460461, HAL.
    9. Siliverstovs Boriss & Kholodilin Konstantin A., 2012. "Assessing the Real-Time Informational Content of Macroeconomic Data Releases for Now-/Forecasting GDP: Evidence for Switzerland," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 232(4), pages 429-444, August.
    10. Luciani, Matteo & Pundit, Madhavi & Ramayandi, Arief & Veronese , Giovanni, 2015. "Nowcasting Indonesia," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 471, Asian Development Bank.
    11. Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guegan, 2008. "Business surveys modelling with seasonal-cyclical long memory models," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne b08035, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    12. an de Meulen, Philipp, 2015. "Das RWI-Kurzfristprognosemodell," RWI Konjunkturberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, vol. 66(2), pages 25-46.
    13. Chauvet, Marcelle & Potter, Simon, 2013. "Forecasting Output," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 141-194, Elsevier.
    14. Matteo Luciani & Lorenzo Ricci, 2014. "Nowcasting Norway," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(4), pages 215-248, December.
    15. David de Antonio Liedo, 2014. "Nowcasting Belgium," Working Paper Research 256, National Bank of Belgium.
    16. D'Agostino, Antonello & McQuinn, Kieran & O'Brien, Derry, 2008. "Now-casting Irish GDP," Research Technical Papers 9/RT/08, Central Bank of Ireland.
    17. Laurent Ferrara & Clément Marsilli & Juan-Pablo Ortega, 2014. "Forecasting growth during the Great Recession: is financial volatility the missing ingredient?," Post-Print hal-01385941, HAL.
    18. Cascaldi-Garcia, Danilo & Ferreira, Thiago R.T. & Giannone, Domenico & Modugno, Michele, 2024. "Back to the present: Learning about the euro area through a now-casting model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 661-686.
    19. Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2016. "Nowcasting using news topics. Big Data versus big bank," Working Paper 2016/20, Norges Bank.
    20. Katja Heinisch & Rolf Scheufele, 2018. "Bottom-up or direct? Forecasting German GDP in a data-rich environment," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 705-745, March.
    21. Soybilgen, Barış & Yazgan, Ege, 2018. "Evaluating nowcasts of bridge equations with advanced combination schemes for the Turkish unemployment rate," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 99-108.
    22. Lehmann, Robert & Wikman, Ida, 2022. "Quarterly GDP Estimates for the German States," MPRA Paper 112642, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    23. Dandan ZHANG & Xunpeng SHI & Yu SHENG, 2014. "Enhanced Measurement of Energy Market Integration in East Asia: An Application of Dynamic Principal Component Analysis," Working Papers DP-2014-23, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    24. Knut Are Aastveit & Karsten R. Gerdrup & Anne Sofie Jore & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2011. "Nowcasting GDP in Real-Time: A Density Combination Approach," Working Papers No 1/2011, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    25. Lucia Alessi & Eric Ghysels & Luca Onorante & Richard Peach & Simon Potter, 2014. "Central Bank Macroeconomic Forecasting During the Global Financial Crisis: The European Central Bank and Federal Reserve Bank of New York Experiences," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(4), pages 483-500, October.
    26. Raïsa Basselier & David Antonio Liedo & Geert Langenus, 2018. "Nowcasting Real Economic Activity in the Euro Area: Assessing the Impact of Qualitative Surveys," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 14(1), pages 1-46, April.
    27. Massimiliano Marcellino & Mario Porqueddu & Fabrizio Venditti, 2016. "Short-Term GDP Forecasting With a Mixed-Frequency Dynamic Factor Model With Stochastic Volatility," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(1), pages 118-127, January.
    28. Jokubaitis, Saulius & Celov, Dmitrij & Leipus, Remigijus, 2021. "Sparse structures with LASSO through principal components: Forecasting GDP components in the short-run," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 759-776.
    29. Knut Are Aastveit & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2014. "Combined Density Nowcasting in an uncertain economic environment," Working Paper 2014/17, Norges Bank.
    30. Götz, Thomas B. & Knetsch, Thomas A., 2019. "Google data in bridge equation models for German GDP," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 45-66.
    31. Bhattacharya, Rudrani & Pandey, Radhika & Veronese, Giovanni, 2011. "Tracking India Growth in Real Time," Working Papers 11/90, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    32. Barnett, William A. & Tang, Biyan, 2015. "Chinese Divisia monetary index and GDP nowcasting," MPRA Paper 67691, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    33. Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guégan & Patrick Rakotomarolahy, 2010. "GDP nowcasting with ragged-edge data: a semi-parametric modeling," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1-2), pages 186-199.
    34. Mayr, Johannes, 2010. "Forecasting Macroeconomic Aggregates," Munich Dissertations in Economics 11140, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
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    7. Ritschl, Albrecht & Uebele, Martin & Sarferaz, Samad, 2008. "The U.S. Business Cycle, 1867-1995: A Dynamic Factor Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 7069, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Stépahne Lhuissier & Urszula Szczerbowicz, 2018. "Monetary Policy and Corporate Debt Structure," Working papers 697, Banque de France.
    9. Anna Charmaine Abara & Yoon Heo, 2013. "Resilience and recovery: The Philippine IT–BPO industry during the global crisis," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 16(2), pages 160-183, June.
    10. Reichlin, Lucrezia & Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele, 2009. "Business Cycles in the Euro Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 7124, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Era Dabla-Norris. Raphael Espinoza & Sarwat Jahan, 2012. "Spillovers to Low-Income Countries: Importance of Systemic Emerging Markets," OxCarre Working Papers 082, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
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    16. Benk, Szil rd & Gillman, Max & Kejak, Michal, 2008. "US Volatility Cycles of Output and Inflation, 1919-2004: A Money and Banking Approach to a Puzzle," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2008/28, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    17. Antonello D'Agostino & Luca Gambetti & Domenico Giannone, 2009. "Macroeconomic Forecasting and Structural Change," Working Papers ECARES 2009_020, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    18. Forte, Antonio, 2009. "The pass-through effect: a twofold analysis," MPRA Paper 16527, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Issing, Otmar & Wieland, Volker, 2012. "Monetary theory and monetary policy: Reflections on the development over the last 150 years," IMFS Working Paper Series 67, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    20. Hommes, Cars & Makarewicz, Tomasz, 2021. "Price level versus inflation targeting under heterogeneous expectations: a laboratory experiment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 39-82.
    21. Pérez-Quirós, Gabriel & Gadea Rivas, Maria Dolores & Gomez-Loscos, Ana, 2015. "The Great Moderation in historical perspective.Is it that great?," CEPR Discussion Papers 10825, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    22. Buch, Claudia M. & Döpke, Jörg & Stahn, Kerstin, 2008. "Great moderation at the firm level? Unconditional versus conditional output volatility," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2008,13, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    23. Todd E. Clark, 2009. "Is the Great Moderation over? an empirical analysis," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 94(Q IV), pages 5-42.
    24. Albrecht Ritschl & Samad Sarferaz & Martin Uebele, 2008. "The U.S. Business Cycle, 1867-1995: Dynamic Factor Analysis vs. Reconstructed National Accounts," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2008-066, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    25. João Valle e Azevedo, 2010. "Forecasting Inflation (and the Business Cycle?) with Monetary Aggregates," Working Papers w201024, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    26. Botelho, Vasco & Foroni, Claudia & Renzetti, Andrea, 2023. "Labour at risk," Working Paper Series 2840, European Central Bank.
    27. Amendola, Alessandra & Candila, Vincenzo & Gallo, Giampiero M., 2019. "On the asymmetric impact of macro–variables on volatility," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 135-152.
    28. Consolo, Agostino & Favero, Carlo A. & Paccagnini, Alessia, 2009. "On the statistical identification of DSGE models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 150(1), pages 99-115, May.
    29. João Valle e Azevedo, 2013. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Low-Frequency Filters," Working Papers w201301, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    30. Robert Kollmann & Stefan Zeugner, 2011. "Leverage as a Predictor for Real Activity and Volatility," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2011-009, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    31. Altavilla, Carlo & Ciccarelli, Matteo, 2010. "Evaluating the effect of monetary policy on unemployment with alternative inflation forecasts," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 237-253, January.
    32. Buch Claudia M & Doepke Joerg & Stahn Kerstin, 2009. "Great Moderation at the Firm Level? Unconditional vs. Conditional Output Volatility," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-27, May.
    33. Cacciatore, Matteo & Ghironi, Fabio & Stebunovs, Viktors, 2015. "The domestic and international effects of interstate U.S. banking," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 171-187.
    34. María Dolores Gadea-Rivas & Ana Gómez-Loscos & Gabriel Pérez-Quirós, 2014. "The two greatest. Great recession vs. great moderation," Working Papers 1423, Banco de España.
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    36. Eric Mayer & Johann Scharler, 2010. "Noisy Information, Interest Rate Shocks and the Great Moderation," Economics working papers 2010-07, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
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    38. Herwartz, Helmut & Rohloff, Hannes & Wang, Shu, 2020. "Proxy SVAR identification of monetary policy shocks: MonteCarlo evidence and insights for the US," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 404, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    39. Norhana Endut & James Morley & Pao-Lin Tien, 2015. "The Changing Transmission Mechanism of U.S. Monetary Policy," Discussion Papers 2015-03, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    40. Korobilis, Dimitris, 2009. "Assessing the transmission of monetary policy using dynamic factor models," MPRA Paper 27593, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Nov 2010.
    41. Pancrazi, Roberto & Vukotic, Marija, 2012. "Technology Persistence and Monetary Policy," Economic Research Papers 270536, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    42. Auer, Simone, 2019. "Monetary policy shocks and foreign investment income: Evidence from a large Bayesian VAR," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 142-166.
    43. Buch Claudia M., 2013. "Has Labor Income Become More Volatile? Evidence from International Industry-Level Data," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 14(4), pages 399-431, December.
    44. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Marcellino Massimiliano, 2016. "Measuring Uncertainty and Its Impact on the Economy," Working Papers (Old Series) 1622, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    45. João Valle e Azevedo & João Tovar Jalles, 2011. "Rational vs. Professional Forecasts," Working Papers w201114, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    46. Grydaki, Maria & Bezemer, Dirk J., 2012. "The Role of Credit in Great Moderation: a Multivariate GARCH Approach," MPRA Paper 39813, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    47. Pelin Ilbas, 2007. "Revealing the preferences of the US Federal Reserve," Working Paper 2008/21, Norges Bank, revised 12 Dec 2008.
    48. David Marqués Ibañez, 2009. "Banks, credit and the transmission mechanism of monetary policy," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 8, pages 2-4.
    49. Castelnuovo, Efrem & Greco, Luciano & Raggi, Davide, 2008. "Estimating regime-switching Taylor rules with trend inflation," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 20/2008, Bank of Finland.
    50. Valle e Azevedo, João & Pereira, Ana, 2013. "Approximating and forecasting macroeconomic signals in real-time," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 479-492.
    51. Pavon-Prado, David, 2019. "Have we been measuring monetary policy correctly? Analysing the Federal Reserve’s policies over the last century," IFCS - Working Papers in Economic History.WH 28342, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Instituto Figuerola.
    52. Rita Duarte, 2009. "The dynamic effects of shocks to wages and prices in the United States and the Euro Area," Working Papers w200915, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    53. Forte, Antonio, 2009. "The European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England: is the Taylor Rule an useful benchmark for the last decade?," MPRA Paper 18309, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    54. Martin Mandler, 2010. "Macroeconomic dynamics and inflation regimes in the U.S. Results from threshold vector autoregressions," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201012, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    55. Pancrazi, Roberto, 2015. "The heterogeneous Great Moderation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 207-228.
    56. Andrew Filardo & Jouchi Nakajima, 2018. "Effectiveness of unconventional monetary policies in a low interest rate environment," BIS Working Papers 691, Bank for International Settlements.
    57. Claudia M. Buch, 2008. "The Great Risk Shift? Income Volatility in an International Perspective," CESifo Working Paper Series 2465, CESifo.
    58. Alina Carare & Ashoka Mody, 2012. "Spillovers of Domestic Shocks: Will They Counteract the ‘Great Moderation’?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(1), pages 69-97, April.
    59. Steffen Henzel & Elisabeth Wieland, 2013. "Synchronization and Changes in International Inflation Uncertainty," CESifo Working Paper Series 4194, CESifo.
    60. Medina, Juan Pablo & Toni, Emiliano & Valdes, Rodrigo, 2023. "The Art and Science of Monetary and Fiscal Policies in Chile," MPRA Paper 117198, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 28 Apr 2023.
    61. Ummad Mazhar, 2013. "Does Greater Transparency Stabilize Output? Evidence from Panel Data," SBP Working Paper Series 59, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department.
    62. Ritschl, Albrecht & Sarferaz, Samad & Uebele, Martin, 2016. "The U.S. business cycle, 1867–2006: a dynamic factor approach," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 67420, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    63. João Valle e Azevedo & Inês Maria Gonçalves, 2015. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Starting from Survey Nowcasts," Working Papers w201502, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    64. Axel A Weber & Rafael Gerke & Andreas Worms, 2009. "Has the monetary transmission process in the euro area changed? Evidence vased on VAR estimates," BIS Working Papers 276, Bank for International Settlements.
    65. Stefan Laseen & Marzie Taheri Sanjani, 2016. "Did the Global Financial Crisis Break the U.S. Phillips Curve?," IMF Working Papers 2016/126, International Monetary Fund.
    66. Richard Higgins, C., 2020. "Financial frictions and changing macroeconomic volatility," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    67. Chengsi Zhang, 2013. "Has Chinese economy become more stable?," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 133-148.
    68. Xuan, Chunji & Kim, Chang-Jin & Kim, Dong Heon, 2019. "New dynamics of consumption and output," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 50-59.
    69. Kanzola, Anna-Maria & Papaioannou, Konstantina & Petrakis, Panagiotis E., 2023. "Environmental behavioral perceptions under uncertainty of alternative economic futures," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    70. Paul Blackley, 2011. "Production Adjustments for Consumer Durables and the Great Moderation," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 39(3), pages 291-302, September.
    71. Serena Ng & Jonathan H. Wright, 2013. "Facts and Challenges from the Great Recession for Forecasting and Macroeconomic Modeling," NBER Working Papers 19469, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    72. Ana gomez-Loscos & M. Dolores Gadea (Universidad de Zaragoza) & Gabriel Perez-Quiros (Bank of Spain), 2015. "Great Moderation and Great Recession. From plain sailing to stormy seas?," EcoMod2015 8267, EcoMod.
    73. Luckas Sabioni Lopes & Marcelle Chauvet & João Eustáquio Lima, 2018. "The end of Brazilian big inflation: lessons to monetary policy from a standard New Keynesian model," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 1475-1505, December.
    74. Bellégo, C. & Ferrara, L., 2009. "Forecasting Euro-area recessions using time-varying binary response models for financial," Working papers 259, Banque de France.
    75. Ásgeir Daníelsson, 2008. "Accuracy in forecasting macroeconomic variables in Iceland," Economics wp39, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    76. Marcel Förster, 2013. "The Great Moderation: Inventories, Shocks or Monetary Policy?," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201348, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    77. Mr. Ashoka Mody & Ms. Alina Carare, 2010. "Spillovers of Domestic Shocks: Will They Counteract the “Great Moderation”?," IMF Working Papers 2010/078, International Monetary Fund.
    78. Philippe Jolivaldt & Ibrahim Ahamada, 2010. "Filtres usuels et filtre fondé sur les ondelettes : étude comparative et application au cycle économique," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 195(4), pages 149-161.
    79. Forte, Antonio, 2009. "The stability of the inflation rate in the Euro area: the role of Globalization and labour market," MPRA Paper 16587, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    80. Deng, Chuang & Wu, Jian, 2023. "Macroeconomic downside risk and the effect of monetary policy," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    81. Herwartz, Helmut & Rohloff, Hannes & Wang, Shu, 2022. "Proxy SVAR identification of monetary policy shocks - Monte Carlo evidence and insights for the US," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    82. McSweeney, Brendan, 2009. "The roles of financial asset market failure denial and the economic crisis: Reflections on accounting and financial theories and practices," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 34(6-7), pages 835-848, August.
    83. Christoffer Koch, 2014. "Deposit interest rate ceilings as credit supply shifters: bank level evidence on the effects of Regulation Q," Working Papers 1406, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    84. Lucia Alessi & Carsten Detken, 2009. "Global liquidity as an early warning indicator for asset price boom/bust cycles," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 8, pages 7-9.
    85. Lucia Alessi & Matteo Barigozzi & Marco Capasso, 2007. "A Review of Nonfundamentalness and Identification in Structural VAR Models," LEM Papers Series 2007/22, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    86. Jambu, Marc-Antoine, 2010. "Has the Globalisation really generated more competition in OECD economies," MPRA Paper 19974, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    87. Friedrich Lucke, 2022. "The Great Moderation and the Financial Cycle," Working Papers REM 2022/0238, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    88. Carlo Ciccarelli & Anna Missiaia, 2018. "The fall and rise of business cycle co-movements in Imperial Austria’s regions," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 60(1), pages 171-193, January.

  45. Joshua Brodie & Ingrid Daubechies & Christine De Mol & Domenico Giannone & Ignace Loris, 2007. "Sparse and stable Markowitz portfolios," Papers 0708.0046, arXiv.org, revised May 2008.

    Cited by:

    1. Gianbiagio Curato & Jim Gatheral & Fabrizio Lillo, 2014. "Optimal execution with nonlinear transient market impact," Papers 1412.4839, arXiv.org.
    2. Giovanni Bonaccolto & Massimiliano Caporin & Sandra Paterlini, 2015. "Asset Allocation Strategies Based On Penalized Quantile Regression," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0199, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
    3. Mohammed Bouaddi & Abderrahim Taamouti, 2012. "Portfolio risk management in a data-rich environment," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 26(4), pages 469-494, December.
    4. W. Briec & K. Kerstens & I. van de Woestyne, 2013. "Portfolio selection with skewness : a comparison of methods and a generalized one fund result," Post-Print hal-00837674, HAL.
    5. Philipp J. Kremer & Andreea Talmaciu & Sandra Paterlini, 2018. "Risk minimization in multi-factor portfolios: What is the best strategy?," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 266(1), pages 255-291, July.
    6. Fan, Jianqing & Liao, Yuan & Shi, Xiaofeng, 2013. "Risks of large portfolios," MPRA Paper 44206, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Imre Kondor & G'abor Papp & Fabio Caccioli, 2017. "Analytic approach to variance optimization under an $\ell_1$ constraint," Papers 1709.08755, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2018.
    8. A. Belloni & D. Chen & V. Chernozhukov & C. Hansen, 2012. "Sparse Models and Methods for Optimal Instruments With an Application to Eminent Domain," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(6), pages 2369-2429, November.
    9. Akiko Takeda & Mahesan Niranjan & Jun-ya Gotoh & Yoshinobu Kawahara, 2013. "Simultaneous pursuit of out-of-sample performance and sparsity in index tracking portfolios," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 21-49, February.
    10. Yen, Yu-Min & Yen, Tso-Jung, 2014. "Solving norm constrained portfolio optimization via coordinate-wise descent algorithms," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 737-759.
    11. Maillet, Bertrand & Tokpavi, Sessi & Vaucher, Benoit, 2015. "Global minimum variance portfolio optimisation under some model risk: A robust regression-based approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 244(1), pages 289-299.
    12. Mayr, Johannes, 2010. "Forecasting Macroeconomic Aggregates," Munich Dissertations in Economics 11140, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    13. Yu-Min Yen, 2010. "A Note on Sparse Minimum Variance Portfolios and Coordinate-Wise Descent Algorithms," Papers 1005.5082, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2013.
    14. Margherita Giuzio & Kay Eichhorn-Schott & Sandra Paterlini & Vincent Weber, 2018. "Tracking hedge funds returns using sparse clones," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 266(1), pages 349-371, July.
    15. Mian Huang & Shangbing Yu & Weixin Yao, 2022. "Regularized Factor Portfolio for Cross-sectional Multifactor Models," Sankhya A: The Indian Journal of Statistics, Springer;Indian Statistical Institute, vol. 84(2), pages 427-449, August.
    16. Joshua Brodie & Ingrid Daubechies & Christine De Mol & Domenico Giannone & Ignace Loris, 2007. "Sparse and stable Markowitz portfolios," Papers 0708.0046, arXiv.org, revised May 2008.
    17. Nikolaus Hautsch & Stefan Voigt, 2017. "Large-Scale Portfolio Allocation Under Transaction Costs and Model Uncertainty," Papers 1709.06296, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2018.
    18. Paulo Ferreira Naibert & João F. Caldeira, 2016. "Seleção De Carteiras Com Restrição Das Normas Das Posições: Uma Comparação Empírica Entre Diferentes Níveis De Restrição De Exposição Para Dados Da Bm&Fbovespa," Anais do XLII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 42nd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 132, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    19. Cristina Conflitti & Christine De Mol & Domenico Giannone, 2012. "Optimal Combination of Survey Forecasts," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2012-023, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    20. Richard K. Crump & Domenico Giannone & Sean Hundtofte, 2018. "Changing Risk-Return Profiles," Liberty Street Economics 20181004, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    21. Imre Kondor, 2014. "Estimation Error of Expected Shortfall," Papers 1402.5534, arXiv.org.
    22. Carlos Castro, 2010. "Portfolio choice under local industry and country factors," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 24(4), pages 353-393, December.
    23. Ignace Loris & Caroline Verhoeven, 2013. "An iterative algorithm for sparse and constrained recovery with applications to divergence-free current reconstructions in magneto-encephalography," Computational Optimization and Applications, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 399-416, March.
    24. Jun-ya Gotoh & Akiko Takeda, 2011. "On the role of norm constraints in portfolio selection," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 8(4), pages 323-353, November.
    25. Enzo Busseti & Fabrizio Lillo, 2012. "Calibration of optimal execution of financial transactions in the presence of transient market impact," Papers 1206.0682, arXiv.org.
    26. Qing Yang & Zhenning Hong & Ruyan Tian & Tingting Ye & Liangliang Zhang, 2020. "Asset Allocation via Machine Learning and Applications to Equity Portfolio Management," Papers 2011.00572, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2020.
    27. Caihua Chen & Xindan Li & Caleb Tolman & Suyang Wang & Yinyu Ye, 2013. "Sparse Portfolio Selection via Quasi-Norm Regularization," Papers 1312.6350, arXiv.org.
    28. Serge Darolles & Christian Gouriéroux & Emmanuelle Jay, 2012. "Robust Portfolio Allocation with Systematic Risk Contribution Restrictions," Working Papers 2012-35, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    29. Björn Fastrich & Peter Winker, 2014. "Combining Forecasts with Missing Data: Making Use of Portfolio Theory," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 44(2), pages 127-152, August.
    30. Bjoern Fastrich & Sandra Paterlini & Peter Winker, 2011. "Cardinality versus q-Norm Constraints for Index Tracking," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 056, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    31. Yu Zheng & Timothy M. Hospedales & Yongxin Yang, 2018. "Diversity and Sparsity: A New Perspective on Index Tracking," Papers 1809.01989, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2020.
    32. Aït-Sahalia, Yacine & Xiu, Dacheng, 2017. "Using principal component analysis to estimate a high dimensional factor model with high-frequency data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 201(2), pages 384-399.
    33. Fabio Caccioli & Imre Kondor & Matteo Marsili & Susanne Still, 2014. "$L_p$ regularized portfolio optimization," Papers 1404.4040, arXiv.org.
    34. B. Fastrich & S. Paterlini & P. Winker, 2015. "Constructing optimal sparse portfolios using regularization methods," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 12(3), pages 417-434, July.
    35. Gianbiagio Curato & Jim Gatheral & Fabrizio Lillo, 2017. "Optimal execution with non-linear transient market impact," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 41-54, January.
    36. Oleksandr Romanko & Helmut Mausser, 2016. "Robust scenario-based value-at-risk optimization," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 237(1), pages 203-218, February.
    37. Aaron J Molstad & Adam J Rothman, 2018. "Shrinking characteristics of precision matrix estimators," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 105(3), pages 563-574.
    38. Oliver Hülsewig & Johannes Mayr & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2008. "Forecasting Euro Area Real GDP: Optimal Pooling of Information," CESifo Working Paper Series 2371, CESifo.
    39. Mr. Jorge A Chan-Lau, 2017. "Lasso Regressions and Forecasting Models in Applied Stress Testing," IMF Working Papers 2017/108, International Monetary Fund.
    40. Oikonomou, Ioannis & Platanakis, Emmanouil & Sutcliffe, Charles, 2018. "Socially responsible investment portfolios: Does the optimization process matter?," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 379-401.
    41. Jianqing Fan & Jingjin Zhang & Ke Yu, 2008. "Asset Allocation and Risk Assessment with Gross Exposure Constraints for Vast Portfolios," Papers 0812.2604, arXiv.org.
    42. Daniel Kinn, 2018. "Reducing Estimation Risk in Mean-Variance Portfolios with Machine Learning," Papers 1804.01764, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2018.
    43. C. Gourieroux & A. Monfort, 2013. "Granularity Adjustment for Efficient Portfolios," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(4), pages 449-468, December.
    44. Philipp J. Kremer & Sangkyun Lee & Malgorzata Bogdan & Sandra Paterlini, 2017. "Sparse Portfolio Selection via the sorted $\ell_{1}$-Norm," Papers 1710.02435, arXiv.org.
    45. Briec, Walter & Kerstens, Kristiaan & Van de Woestyne, Ignace, 2011. "Portfolio Selection with Skewness: A Comparison and a Generalized Two Fund Separation Result," Working Papers 2011/09, Hogeschool-Universiteit Brussel, Faculteit Economie en Management.
    46. Jun-ya Gotoh & Akiko Takeda & Rei Yamamoto, 2014. "Interaction between financial risk measures and machine learning methods," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 11(4), pages 365-402, October.

  46. Reichlin, Lucrezia & Doz, Catherine & Giannone, Domenico, 2007. "A Two-Step Estimator for Large Approximate Dynamic Factor Models Based on Kalman Filtering," CEPR Discussion Papers 6043, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova & Jan Bruha, 2016. "Nowcasting the Czech Trade Balance," Working Papers 2016/11, Czech National Bank.
    2. Robert Lehmann, 2016. "Economic Growth and Business Cycle Forecasting at the Regional Level," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 65.
    3. Lamprou, Dimitra, 2016. "Nowcasting GDP in Greece: The impact of data revisions and forecast origin on model selection and performance," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 14(PA), pages 93-102.
    4. Heaton, Chris & Oslington, Paul, 2010. "Micro vs macro explanations of post-war US unemployment movements," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 106(2), pages 87-91, February.
    5. Claudio Morana, 2010. "Heteroskedastic Factor Vector Autoregressive Estimation of Persistent and Non Persistent Processes Subject to Structural Breaks," ICER Working Papers - Applied Mathematics Series 36-2010, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research.
    6. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Sivec, Vasja, 2016. "Monetary, fiscal and oil shocks: Evidence based on mixed frequency structural FAVARs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 193(2), pages 335-348.
    7. Claudio Morana, 2014. "Factor Vector Autoregressive Estimation of Heteroskedastic Persistent and Non Persistent Processes Subject to Structural Breaks," Working Papers 273, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised May 2014.
    8. Elena Andreou & Eric Ghysels & Andros Kourtellos, 2010. "Should macroeconomic forecasters use daily financial data and how?," University of Cyprus Working Papers in Economics 09-2010, University of Cyprus Department of Economics.
    9. Poncela, Pilar & Ruiz Ortega, Esther, 2012. "More is not always better : back to the Kalman filter in dynamic factor models," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws122317, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    10. Frauke Schleer & Willi Semmler, 2014. "Financial Sector and Output Dynamics in the Euro Area: Non-linearities Reconsidered," SCEPA working paper series. 2014-5, Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA), The New School.
    11. Audrone Jakaitiene & Stephane Dees, 2012. "Forecasting the World Economy in the Short Term," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(3), pages 331-350, March.
    12. Maurizio Daniele & Winfried Pohlmeier & Aygul Zagidullina, 2018. "Sparse Approximate Factor Estimation for High-Dimensional Covariance Matrices," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2018-07, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
    13. Bańbura, Marta & Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele, 2015. "Conditional forecasts and scenario analysis with vector autoregressions for large cross-sections," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 739-756.
    14. Marie Bessec, 2013. "Short-term forecasts of French GDP: A dynamic factor model with targeted predictors," Post-Print hal-01515605, HAL.
    15. Barigozzi, Matteo & Conti, Antonio & Luciani, Matteo, 2012. "Do Euro area countries respond asymmetrically to the common monetary policy?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 43344, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    16. Allayioti, Anastasia & Venditti, Fabrizio, 2024. "The role of comovement and time-varying dynamics in forecasting commodity prices," Working Paper Series 2901, European Central Bank.
    17. Reichlin, Lucrezia & Giannone, Domenico & Modugno, Michele & Banbura, Marta, 2012. "Now-casting and the real-time data flow," CEPR Discussion Papers 9112, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Claudia Foroni & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2013. "A survey of econometric methods for mixed-frequency data," Working Paper 2013/06, Norges Bank.
    19. Simona Delle Chiaie & Laurent Ferrara & Domenico Giannone, 2022. "Common factors of commodity prices," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(3), pages 461-476, April.
    20. Follett, Lendie & Yu, Cindy, 2019. "Achieving parsimony in Bayesian vector autoregressions with the horseshoe prior," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 11(C), pages 130-144.
    21. Catherine Doz & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2008. "A Quasi Maximum Likelihood Approach for Large Approximate Dynamic Factor Models," Working Papers ECARES 2008_034, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    22. Lasse Bork & Hans Dewachter & Romain Houssa, 2009. "Identification of Macroeconomic Factors in Large Panels," CREATES Research Papers 2009-43, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    23. Niels Haldrup & Carsten P. T. Rosenskjold, 2019. "A Parametric Factor Model of the Term Structure of Mortality," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-22, March.
    24. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné, 2022. "Backcasting world trade growth using data reduction methods," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(10), pages 3169-3191, October.
    25. Roberto S. Mariano & Suleyman Ozmucur, 2021. "Predictive Performance of Mixed-Frequency Nowcasting and Forecasting Models (with Application to Philippine Inflation and GDP Growth)," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 19(1), pages 383-400, December.
    26. Aastveit, Knut Are & Trovik, Tørres, 2014. "Estimating the output gap in real time: A factor model approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 180-193.
    27. Marie Bessec & Othman Bouabdallah, 2015. "Forecasting GDP over the Business Cycle in a Multi-Frequency and Data-Rich Environment," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 77(3), pages 360-384, June.
    28. Branimir, Jovanovic & Magdalena, Petrovska, 2010. "Forecasting Macedonian GDP: Evaluation of different models for short-term forecasting," MPRA Paper 43162, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    29. Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guegan & Patrick Rakotomarolahy, 2010. "GDP nowcasting with ragged-edge data: a semi-parametric modeling," Post-Print halshs-00460461, HAL.
    30. Matteo Barigozzi & Matteo Luciani, 2017. "Common Factors, Trends, and Cycles in Large Datasets," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-111, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    31. Jin, Sainan & Miao, Ke & Su, Liangjun, 2021. "On factor models with random missing: EM estimation, inference, and cross validation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 222(1), pages 745-777.
    32. Luciani, Matteo & Pundit, Madhavi & Ramayandi, Arief & Veronese , Giovanni, 2015. "Nowcasting Indonesia," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 471, Asian Development Bank.
    33. Claudia FORONI & Massimiliano MARCELLINO, 2012. "A Comparison of Mixed Frequency Approaches for Modelling Euro Area Macroeconomic Variables," Economics Working Papers ECO2012/07, European University Institute.
    34. Julius Stakenas, 2012. "Generating short-term forecasts of the Lithuanian GDP using factor models," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 13, Bank of Lithuania.
    35. Nima Nonejad, 2021. "An Overview Of Dynamic Model Averaging Techniques In Time‐Series Econometrics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 566-614, April.
    36. Hartigan, Luke & Morley, James, 2019. "A Factor Model Analysis of the Australian Economy and the Effects of Inflation Targeting," Working Papers 2019-10, University of Sydney, School of Economics, revised Nov 2019.
    37. Diaz, Elena Maria & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel, 2021. "GEA tracker: A daily indicator of global economic activity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    38. Giovanni Ballarin & Petros Dellaportas & Lyudmila Grigoryeva & Marcel Hirt & Sophie van Huellen & Juan-Pablo Ortega, 2022. "Reservoir Computing for Macroeconomic Forecasting with Mixed Frequency Data," Papers 2211.00363, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2024.
    39. Niccolò Battistini & Marco Pagano & Saverio Simonelli, 2014. "Systemic risk, sovereign yields and bank exposures in the euro crisis [Real effects of the sovereign debt crises in Europe: evidence from syndicated loans]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 29(78), pages 203-251.
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    2. Domenico Giannone & Troy Matheson, 2006. "A new core inflation indicator for New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2006/02, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    3. Ant?nio Cl¨¦cio de Brito & Elano Ferreira Arruda & Ivan Castelar & Nicolino Trompieri Neto & Cristiano Santos, 2019. "Core Inflation, Expectations and Inflation Dynamics in Brazil," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 11(6), pages 1-1, June.
    4. Elena Deryugina & Alexey Ponomarenko & Andrey Sinyakov & Konstantin Sorokin, 2015. "Evaluating the underlying inflation measures for Russia," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps4, Bank of Russia.
    5. Carlomagno, Guillermo & Fornero, Jorge & Sansone, Andrés, 2023. "A proposal for constructing and evaluating core inflation measures," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 4(3).
    6. Marlene Amstad & Simon M. Potter & Robert W. Rich, 2017. "The New York Fed Staff Underlying Inflation Gauge (UIG)," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue 23-2, pages 1-32.
    7. Rangan Gupta & Alain Kabundi & Stephen M. Miller, 2009. "Forecasting the US Real House Price Index: Structural and Non-Structural Models with and without Fundamentals," Working papers 2009-42, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    8. Chris Bloor, 2009. "The use of statistical forecasting models at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 72, pages 21-26, June.
    9. Davide Delle Monache & Ivan Petrella & Fabrizio Venditti, 2016. "Common Faith or Parting Ways? A Time Varying Parameters Factor Analysis of Euro-Area Inflation," Advances in Econometrics, in: Dynamic Factor Models, volume 35, pages 539-565, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    10. Mark A. Wynne, 2008. "How should central banks define price stability?," Globalization Institute Working Papers 08, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    11. Pincheira, Pablo & Selaive, Jorge & Nolazco, Jose Luis, 2017. "Forecasting Inflation in Latin America with Core Measures," MPRA Paper 80496, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Marc Hallin & Roman Liska, 2008. "Dynamic Factors in the Presence of Block Structure," Economics Working Papers ECO2008/22, European University Institute.
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    15. Aron Drew & Özer Karagedikli, 2007. "Some Benefits of Monetary-Policy Transparency in New Zealand," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 57(11-12), pages 521-539, December.
    16. Mikael Khan & Louis Morel & Patrick Sabourin, 2013. "The Common Component of CPI: An Alternative Measure of Underlying Inflation for Canada," Staff Working Papers 13-35, Bank of Canada.
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    21. Qin Zhang & He Ni & Hao Xu, 2023. "Forecasting models for the Chinese macroeconomy in a data‐rich environment: Evidence from large dimensional approximate factor models with mixed‐frequency data," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 63(1), pages 719-767, March.
    22. Gupta, Rangan & Kabundi, Alain, 2011. "A large factor model for forecasting macroeconomic variables in South Africa," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 1076-1088, October.
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    24. Satish Ranchhod, 2013. "Measures of New Zealand core inflation," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 76, pages 3-11, March.
    25. Baqaee, David, 2010. "Using wavelets to measure core inflation: The case of New Zealand," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 241-255, December.
    26. Alan K. Detmeister, 2011. "The usefulness of core PCE inflation measures," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-56, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    27. Brent Meyer & Saeed Zaman, 2016. "The Usefulness of the Median CPI in Bayesian VARs Used for Macroeconomic Forecasting and Policy," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2016-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    28. Muriel Nguiffo-Boyom, 2008. "A monthly indicator of Economic activity for Luxembourg," BCL working papers 31, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
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    89. Katerina Arnostova & Tomas Adam & Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova & Jan Babecky & Vojtech Belling & Sona Benecka & Jan Bruha & Martin Gurtler & Tibor Hledik & Tomas Holub & Eva Hromadkova & Lubos Komarek &, 2017. "Analyses of the Czech Republic's Current Economic Alignment with the Euro Area 2017," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, number as17 edited by Katerina Arnostova & Lucie Matejkova, January.
    90. Dan IVÃNESCU & Laura IVÃNESCU, 2016. "Estimating The Business Cycle Synchronization Between Romania And The Euro Area," Business Excellence and Management, Faculty of Management, Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania, vol. 6(1), pages 36-42, March.
    91. Faruk Balli & Eleonora Pierucci, 2015. "Globalization and international risk-sharing: do political and social factors matter more than economic integration?," CAMA Working Papers 2015-04, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    92. Tomas Adam & Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova & Jan Babecky & Jan Bruha & Tomas Holub & Eva Hromadkova & David Kocourek & Lubos Komarek & Zlatuse Komarkova & Kamila Kulhava & Petr Kral & Ivana Kubicova & Ji, 2013. "Analyses of the Czech Republic's Current Economic Alignment with the Euro Area 2013," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, number as13 edited by Jakub Mateju & Kamila Kulhava, January.
    93. Ana Buisán & Fernando Restoy, 2005. "Cross country macroeconomic heterogeneity in EMU," Occasional Papers 0504, Banco de España.
    94. Cronin, David & McInerney, Niall, 2023. "Official fiscal forecasts in EU member states under the European Semester and Fiscal Compact – An empirical assessment," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    95. Dinu. Marin & Marinas, Marius Corneliu & Socol Cristian & Socol, Aura Gabriela, 2012. "Clusterization, Persistence, Dependency and Volatility of Business Cycles in an Enlarged Euro Area," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 5-23, June.
    96. Philip R. Lane, 2006. "The Real Effects of EMU," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp115, IIIS.
    97. Jacques Pelkmans & Lourdes Acedo Montoya & Alessandro Maravalle, 2008. "How product market reforms lubricate shock adjustment in the euro area," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 341, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    98. Tomas Adam & Robert Ambrisko & Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova & Jan Babecky & Sona Benecka & Jan Bruha & Vilma Dingova & Dana Hajkova & Tomas Holub & Eva Hromadkova & David Kocourek & Lubos Komarek & Zlat, 2014. "Analyses of the Czech Republic's Current Economic Alignment with the Euro Area 2014," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, number as14 edited by Kamila Kulhava & Jakub Mateju, January.
    99. Asdrubali, Pierfederico & Kim, Soyoung & Pericoli, Filippo Maria & Poncela, Pilar, 2023. "Risk sharing channels in OECD countries: A heterogeneous panel VAR approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    100. Fratzscher, Marcel & Stracca, Livio, 2009. "Does it pay to have the euro? Italy’s politics and financial markets under the lira and the euro," Working Paper Series 1064, European Central Bank.
    101. Van Robays, Ine & Stracca, Livio, 2020. "How much does aggregate demand travel across the Atlantic?," Working Paper Series 2430, European Central Bank.
    102. Crowley, Patrick M., 2008. "One money, several cycles? Evaluation of European business cycles using model-based cluster analysis," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 3/2008, Bank of Finland.
    103. Eleonora Pierucci & Luigi Ventura, 2011. "On international risk sharing and financial globalization: some gloomy evidence," Departmental Working Papers of Economics - University 'Roma Tre' 0124, Department of Economics - University Roma Tre.
    104. Spahn, Peter, 2012. "Integration durch Währungsunion? Der Fall der Euro-Zone," FZID Discussion Papers 57-2012, University of Hohenheim, Center for Research on Innovation and Services (FZID).
    105. Cristina PUIU, 2012. "The Role of Heterogeneity in Creating Imbalances in the Euro Area," EuroEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 1(31), pages 77-85, February.
    106. Michal Bencik, 2011. "Business cycle synchronisation between the V4 countries and the euro area," Working and Discussion Papers WP 1/2011, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    107. Thomas D. Willett & Orawan Permpoon & Clas Wihlborg, 2010. "Endogenous OCA Analysis and the Early Euro Experience," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(7), pages 851-872, July.
    108. Lucia Alessi & Carsten Detken, 2009. "Global liquidity as an early warning indicator for asset price boom/bust cycles," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 8, pages 7-9.
    109. Giulia Rivolta, 2018. "Potential ECB reaction functions with time-varying parameters: an assessment," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 1425-1473, December.
    110. Pietro Cova & Lisa Rodano, 2019. "Relative price dynamics in the Euro area: where do we stand?," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1226, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    111. Christian Friedrich, 2015. "Does Financial Integration Increase Welfare? Evidence from International Household-Level Data," Staff Working Papers 15-4, Bank of Canada.
    112. Otmar Issing, 2006. "Europe’s hard fix: the Euro area," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 181-196, December.
    113. Rostagno, Massimo & Altavilla, Carlo & Carboni, Giacomo & Lemke, Wolfgang & Motto, Roberto & Saint Guilhem, Arthur & Yiangou, Jonathan, 2019. "A tale of two decades: the ECB’s monetary policy at 20," Working Paper Series 2346, European Central Bank.
    114. Quint, Dominic, 2014. "Is it really more dispersed? Measuring and comparing the stress from the common monetary policy in the euro area," Discussion Papers 2014/13, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    115. Alessandro Turrini, 2008. "Fiscal policy and the cycle in the Euro Area: The role of government revenue and expenditure," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 323, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.

  51. D'Agostino, Antonello & Domenico, Giannone & Surico, Paolo, 2006. "(Un)Predictability and Macroeconomic Stability," Research Technical Papers 5/RT/06, Central Bank of Ireland.

    Cited by:

    1. D'Agostino, Antonello & McQuinn, Kieran & Whelan, Karl, 2010. "Are Some Forecasters Really Better Than Others?," Research Technical Papers 5/RT/10, Central Bank of Ireland.
    2. Audrone Jakaitiene & Stephane Dees, 2012. "Forecasting the World Economy in the Short Term," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(3), pages 331-350, March.
    3. Surico, Paolo & Benati, Luca, 2007. "Evolving U.S. monetary policy and the decline of inflation predictability," Working Paper Series 824, European Central Bank.
    4. Michael Cai & Marco Del Negro & Marc Giannoni & Abhi Gupta & Pearl Li & Erica Moszkowski, 2018. "DSGE forecasts of the lost recovery," Staff Reports 844, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    5. Ásgeir Daníelsson, 2008. "The great moderation Icelandic style," Economics wp38, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    6. Gamber, Edward N. & Smith, Julie K. & McNamara, Dylan C., 2014. "Where is the Fed in the distribution of forecasters?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 296-312.
    7. Joseph P. Byrne & Shuo Cao. & Dimitris Korobilis., 2015. "Term Structure Dynamics, Macro-Finance Factors and Model Uncertainty," Working Papers 2015_08, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    8. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2010. "Averaging forecasts from VARs with uncertain instabilities," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 5-29.
    9. Tatevik Sekhposyan & Barbara Rossi, 2009. "Has Economic Modelsí Forecasting Performance for US Output Growth and Inflation Changed Over Time, and When?," Working Papers 09-06, Duke University, Department of Economics.
    10. Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guegan & Patrick Rakotomarolahy, 2010. "GDP nowcasting with ragged-edge data: a semi-parametric modeling," Post-Print halshs-00460461, HAL.
    11. Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Onorante, Luca & Momferatou, Daphne, 2010. "Short-Term Inflation Projections: a Bayesian Vector Autoregressive approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 7746, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Matteo Ciccarelli & Benoît Mojon, 2005. "Global Inflation," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 357, Central Bank of Chile.
    13. Mumtaz, Haroon & Surico, Paolo, 2008. "Time-Varying Yield Curve Dynamics and Monetary Policy," Discussion Papers 23, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
    14. Paul Hubert, 2009. "An Empirical Review of Federal Reserve’s Informational Advantage," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2009-03, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    15. Mumtaz, Haroon & Surico, Paolo, 2008. "Evolving International Inflation Dynamics: Evidence from a Time-varying Dynamic Factor Model," CEPR Discussion Papers 6767, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Luca Fanelli & Marco M. Sorge, 2015. "Indeterminacy, Misspecification and Forecastability: Good Luck in Bad Policy?," CSEF Working Papers 402, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    17. Banerjee, Anindya & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Masten, Igor, 2014. "Forecasting with factor-augmented error correction models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 589-612.
    18. Vugar Ahmadov & Shaig Adigozalov & Salman Huseynov & Fuad Mammadov & Vugar Rahimov, 2016. "Forecasting inflation in post-oil boom years: A case for non-linear models?," Working Papers 1601, Central Bank of Azerbaijan Republic.
    19. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2006. "Forecasting of small macroeconomic VARs in the presence of instabilities," Research Working Paper RWP 06-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    20. Kuzin, Vladimir N. & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Schumacher, Christian, 2009. "Pooling versus model selection for nowcasting with many predictors: an application to German GDP," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2009,03, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    21. Sweder van Wijnbergen & Tim Willems, 2013. "Imperfect information, lagged labour adjustment, and the Great Moderation," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 65(2), pages 219-239, April.
    22. Scharnagl, Michael & Schumacher, Christian, 2007. "Reconsidering the role of monetary indicators for euro area inflation from a Bayesian perspective using group inclusion probabilities," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,09, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    23. Massimiliano Marcellino & Christian Schumacher, 2008. "Factor-MIDAS for Now- and Forecasting with Ragged-Edge Data: A Model Comparison for German GDP1," Working Papers 333, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    24. Antonello D'Agostino & Luca Gambetti & Domenico Giannone, 2009. "Macroeconomic Forecasting and Structural Change," Working Papers ECARES 2009_020, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    25. D'Agostino, Antonello & Whelan, Karl, 2007. "Federal Reserve Information During the Great Moderation," Research Technical Papers 8/RT/07, Central Bank of Ireland.
    26. Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2017. "Priors for the long run," Staff Reports 832, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    27. Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guégan & Patrick Rakotomarolahy, 2010. "GDP nowcasting with ragged-edge data: a semi-parametric modeling," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1-2), pages 186-199.
    28. Reichlin, Lucrezia & Giannone, Domenico & De Mol, Christine, 2006. "Forecasting Using a Large Number of Predictors: Is Bayesian Regression a Valid Alternative to Principal Components?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5829, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    29. Rossi, Barbara, 2013. "Advances in Forecasting under Instability," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1203-1324, Elsevier.
    30. Hilde C. Bjørnland & Francesco Ravazzolo & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2015. "Forecasting GDP with global components. This time is different," Working Paper 2015/05, Norges Bank.
    31. Massimiliano Marcellino & Christian Schumacher, 2008. "Factor-MIDAS for Now- and Forecasting with Ragged-Edge Data: A Model Comparison for German GDP," Economics Working Papers ECO2008/16, European University Institute.
    32. Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & David H Small, 2007. "Nowcasting GDP and Inflation: The Real-Time Informational Content of Macroeconomic Data Releases," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 164, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    33. Angelini, Elena & Camba-Méndez, Gonzalo & Rünstler, Gerhard & Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2008. "Short-term forecasts of euro area GDP growth," Working Paper Series 949, European Central Bank.
    34. Sargent, Thomas & Surico, Paolo, 2008. "Monetary policies and low-frequency manifestations of the quantity theory," Discussion Papers 26, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
    35. Peter Tulip, 2009. "Has the Economy Become More Predictable? Changes in Greenbook Forecast Accuracy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(6), pages 1217-1231, September.
    36. Antonello D’ Agostino & Domenico Giannone, 2012. "Comparing Alternative Predictors Based on Large‐Panel Factor Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 74(2), pages 306-326, April.
    37. Drechsel, Katja & Scheufele, Rolf, 2012. "The performance of short-term forecasts of the German economy before and during the 2008/2009 recession," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 428-445.
    38. Van Nieuwenhuyze, Christophe & Benk, Szilard & Rünstler, Gerhard & Cristadoro, Riccardo & Den Reijer, Ard & Jakaitiene, Audrone & Jelonek, Piotr & Rua, António & Ruth, Karsten & Barhoumi, Karim, 2008. "Short-term forecasting of GDP using large monthly datasets: a pseudo real-time forecast evaluation exercise," Occasional Paper Series 84, European Central Bank.
    39. Jari Hännikäinen, 2016. "When does the yield curve contain predictive power? Evidence from a data-rich environment," Working Papers 1603, Tampere University, Faculty of Management and Business, Economics.
    40. Rochelle M. Edge & Michael T. Kiley & Jean-Philippe Laforte, 2010. "A comparison of forecast performance between Federal Reserve staff forecasts, simple reduced-form models, and a DSGE model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 720-754.
    41. Chanont Banternghansa & Michael W. McCracken, 2010. "Real-time forecast averaging with ALFRED," Working Papers 2010-033, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    42. Schumacher, Christian & Breitung, Jörg, 2008. "Real-time forecasting of German GDP based on a large factor model with monthly and quarterly data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 386-398.
    43. Rochelle M. Edge & Refet S. Gurkaynak, 2010. "How Useful Are Estimated DSGE Model Forecasts for Central Bankers?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 41(2 (Fall)), pages 209-259.
    44. Lombardi, Marco J. & Godbout, Claudia, 2012. "Short-term forecasting of the Japanese economy using factor models," Working Paper Series 1428, European Central Bank.
    45. Kim Chang-Jin & Kim Yunmi, 2008. "Is the Backward-Looking Component Important in a New Keynesian Phillips Curve?," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(3), pages 1-20, September.
    46. Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guegan & Patrick Rakotomarolahy, 2009. "GDP nowcasting with ragged-edge data : A semi-parametric modelling," Post-Print halshs-00344839, HAL.
    47. Clements, Michael P., 2016. "Real-time factor model forecasting and the effects of instability," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 661-675.
    48. David C. Wheelock & Mark E. Wohar, 2009. "Can the term spread predict output growth and recessions? a survey of the literature," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 91(Sep), pages 419-440.
    49. Daniel L. Thornton & Giorgio Valente, 2010. "Predicting bond excess returns with forward rates: an asset-allocation perspective," Working Papers 2010-034, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    50. Ronald Ravinesh Kumar & Peter Josef Stauvermann & Hang Thi Thu Vu, 2021. "The Relationship between Yield Curve and Economic Activity: An Analysis of G7 Countries," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-23, February.
    51. Harun Özkan & M. Yazgan, 2015. "Is forecasting inflation easier under inflation targeting?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 609-626, March.
    52. Gupta, Rangan & Kabundi, Alain, 2011. "A large factor model for forecasting macroeconomic variables in South Africa," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 1076-1088, October.
    53. Abdalla, Ahmed & Carabias, Jose M. & Patatoukas, Panos N., 2021. "The real-time macro content of corporate financial reports: a dynamic factor model approach," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 108539, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    54. Ippei Fujiwara & Yasuo Hirose, 2011. "Indeterminacy and forecastability," Globalization Institute Working Papers 91, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    55. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Eickmeier, Sandra & Lemke, Wolfgang, 2011. "Classical time-varying FAVAR models - Estimation, forecasting and structural analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 8321, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    56. Knüppel, Malte & Schultefrankenfeld, Guido, 2013. "The empirical (ir)relevance of the interest rate assumption for central bank forecasts," Discussion Papers 11/2013, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    57. Lombardi, Marco J. & Maier, Philipp, 2011. "Forecasting economic growth in the euro area during the Great Moderation and the Great Recession," Working Paper Series 1379, European Central Bank.
    58. Vugar Ahmadov & Salman Huseynov & Shaig Adigozalov & Fuad Mammadov & Vugar Rahimov, 2018. "Forecasting inflation in post-oil boom years: A case for regime switches?," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 42(2), pages 369-385, April.
    59. Reichlin, Lucrezia & Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele, 2012. "Money, credit, monetary policy and the business cycle in the euro area," CEPR Discussion Papers 8944, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    60. Jan J.J. Groen & George Kapetanios, 2008. "Revisiting Useful Approaches to Data-Rich Macroeconomic Forecasting," Working Papers 624, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    61. Liebermann, Joelle, 2011. "Real-Time Nowcasting of GDP: Factor Model versus Professional Forecasters," Research Technical Papers 3/RT/11, Central Bank of Ireland.
    62. Paul Hubert, 2015. "Revisiting the Greenbook’s relative forecasting performance," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(1), pages 151-179.
    63. Sbrana, Giacomo & Silvestrini, Andrea & Venditti, Fabrizio, 2017. "Short-term inflation forecasting: The M.E.T.A. approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 1065-1081.
    64. Rossi, Barbara & Sekhposyan, Tatevik, 2010. "Have economic models' forecasting performance for US output growth and inflation changed over time, and when?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 808-835, October.
    65. Garciga, Christian & Knotek II, Edward S., 2019. "Forecasting GDP growth with NIPA aggregates: In search of core GDP," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1814-1828.
    66. Marco J. Lombardi & Philipp Maier, 2010. "‘Lean’ versus ‘Rich’ Data Sets: Forecasting during the Great Moderation and the Great Recession," Staff Working Papers 10-37, Bank of Canada.
    67. Fanelli, Luca & Sorge, Marco M., 2017. "Indeterminate forecast accuracy under indeterminacy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 57-70.
    68. Cecilia Frale & David Veredas, 2008. "A Monthly Volatility Index for the US Economy," Working Papers ECARES 2008-008, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    69. Mr. Helge Berger & Mr. Thomas Harjes & Mr. Emil Stavrev, 2008. "The ECB’s Monetary Analysis Revisited," IMF Working Papers 2008/171, International Monetary Fund.
    70. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2012. "Generalized Shrinkage Methods for Forecasting Using Many Predictors," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(4), pages 481-493, June.
    71. Daniel L. Thornton, 2012. "How did we get to inflation targeting and where do we need to go to now? a perspective from the U.S. experience," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 94(Jan), pages 65-81.
    72. Tatevik Sekhposyan & Barbara Rossi, 2008. "Has modelsí forecasting performance for US output growth and inflation changed over time, and when?," Working Papers 09-02, Duke University, Department of Economics.
    73. Edward N. Gamber & Julie K. Smith, 2007. "Are the Fed’s Inflation Forecasts Still Superior to the Private Sector’s?," Working Papers 2007-002, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting, revised Jul 2008.
    74. Gebka, Bartosz & Wohar, Mark E., 2018. "The predictive power of the yield spread for future economic expansions: Evidence from a new approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 181-195.
    75. Dur, Ayşe & Martínez García, Enrique, 2020. "Mind the gap!—A monetarist view of the open-economy Phillips curve," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    76. Berger, Helge & Harjes, Thomas & Stavrev, Emil, 2008. "The ECB's monetary analysis revisited," Discussion Papers 2008/14, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    77. Fornari, Fabio & Lemke, Wolfgang, 2010. "Predicting recession probabilities with financial variables over multiple horizons," Working Paper Series 1255, European Central Bank.
    78. Daniel L. Thornton, 2009. "How did we get to inflation targeting and where do we go now? a perspective from the U.S. experience," Working Papers 2009-038, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    79. Liebermann, Joelle, 2012. "Real-time forecasting in a data-rich environment," Research Technical Papers 07/RT/12, Central Bank of Ireland.
    80. Manzan, Sebastiano & Zerom, Dawit, 2013. "Are macroeconomic variables useful for forecasting the distribution of U.S. inflation?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 469-478.
    81. Andrea Nobili, 2009. "Composite indicators for monetary analysis," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 713, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

  52. D'Agostino, Antonello & Giannone, Domenico, 2006. "Comparing Alternative Predictors Based on Large-Panel Factor Models," Research Technical Papers 14/RT/06, Central Bank of Ireland.

    Cited by:

    1. GUO-FITOUSSI, Liang, 2013. "A Comparison of the Finite Sample Properties of Selection Rules of Factor Numbers in Large Datasets," MPRA Paper 50005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Ard Reijer, 2013. "Forecasting Dutch GDP and inflation using alternative factor model specifications based on large and small datasets," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 435-453, April.
    3. Allayioti, Anastasia & Venditti, Fabrizio, 2024. "The role of comovement and time-varying dynamics in forecasting commodity prices," Working Paper Series 2901, European Central Bank.
    4. Hubrich, Kirstin & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Beck, Günter W., 2006. "Regional inflation dynamics within and across euro area countries and a comparison with the US," Working Paper Series 681, European Central Bank.
    5. Simona Delle Chiaie & Laurent Ferrara & Domenico Giannone, 2022. "Common factors of commodity prices," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(3), pages 461-476, April.
    6. Matteo Barigozzi & Matteo Luciani, 2017. "Common Factors, Trends, and Cycles in Large Datasets," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-111, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Matteo Barigozzi & Matteo Luciani, 2019. "Quasi Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Non-Stationary Large Approximate Dynamic Factor Models," Papers 1910.09841, arXiv.org.
    8. Matteo Luciani & Lorenzo Ricci, 2014. "Nowcasting Norway," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(4), pages 215-248, December.
    9. Jason Angelopoulos, 2017. "Creating and assessing composite indicators: Dynamic applications for the port industry and seaborne trade," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 19(1), pages 126-159, March.
    10. Hanisch, Max & Kempa, Bernd, 2017. "The international transmission channels of US supply and demand shocks: Evidence from a non-stationary dynamic factor model for the G7 countries," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 70-88.
    11. Giannone, Domenico & D’Agostino, Antonello & Surico, Paolo, 2007. "(Un)Predictability and Macroeconomic Stability," CEPR Discussion Papers 6594, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Filippo Altissimo & Riccardo Cristadoro & Mario Forni & Marco Lippi & Giovanni Veronese, 2010. "New Eurocoin: Tracking Economic Growth in Real Time," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(4), pages 1024-1034, November.
    13. Kuzin, Vladimir N. & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Schumacher, Christian, 2009. "Pooling versus model selection for nowcasting with many predictors: an application to German GDP," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2009,03, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    14. Massimiliano Marcellino & Christian Schumacher, 2008. "Factor-MIDAS for Now- and Forecasting with Ragged-Edge Data: A Model Comparison for German GDP1," Working Papers 333, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    15. Jiang, Yu & Guo, Yongji & Zhang, Yihao, 2017. "Forecasting China's GDP growth using dynamic factors and mixed-frequency data," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 132-138.
    16. Reichlin, Lucrezia & Giannone, Domenico & Banbura, Marta, 2007. "Bayesian VARs with Large Panels," CEPR Discussion Papers 6326, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. Jokubaitis, Saulius & Celov, Dmitrij & Leipus, Remigijus, 2021. "Sparse structures with LASSO through principal components: Forecasting GDP components in the short-run," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 759-776.
    18. Elena Deryugina & Alexey Ponomarenko, 2021. "Explaining the lead–lag pattern in the money–inflation relationship: a microsimulation approach," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 1113-1128, September.
    19. Reichlin, Lucrezia & Giannone, Domenico & De Mol, Christine, 2006. "Forecasting Using a Large Number of Predictors: Is Bayesian Regression a Valid Alternative to Principal Components?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5829, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    20. Giovannelli, Alessandro & Proietti, Tommaso, 2014. "On the Selection of Common Factors for Macroeconomic Forecasting," MPRA Paper 60673, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Evzen Kocenda & Karen Poghosyan, 2020. "Nowcasting Real GDP Growth: Comparison between Old and New EU Countries," Working Papers IES 2020/5, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Feb 2020.
    22. Viktors Ajevskis & Gundars Davidsons, 2008. "Dynamic Factor Models in Forecasting Latvia's Gross Domestic Product," Working Papers 2008/02, Latvijas Banka.
    23. Marc Hallin & Roman Liska, 2008. "Dynamic Factors in the Presence of Block Structure," Economics Working Papers ECO2008/22, European University Institute.
    24. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2008. "Phillips curve inflation forecasts," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
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    47. Nikolaos Kokonas & Paulo Santos Monteiro, 2020. "The Ins and Outs of Unemployment in General Equilibrium," Discussion Papers 2014, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
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    4. Exterkate, Peter & Groenen, Patrick J.F. & Heij, Christiaan & van Dijk, Dick, 2016. "Nonlinear forecasting with many predictors using kernel ridge regression," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 736-753.
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    7. Bańbura, Marta & Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele, 2015. "Conditional forecasts and scenario analysis with vector autoregressions for large cross-sections," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 739-756.
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    125. Carlo Altavilla & Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza, 2014. "The Financial and Macroeconomic Effects of the OMT Announcements," CSEF Working Papers 352, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    126. Chudik , A. & Pesaran, M.H., 2007. "Infinite Dimensional VARs and Factor Models," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0757, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
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    44. Reichlin, Lucrezia & Giannone, Domenico & De Mol, Christine, 2006. "Forecasting Using a Large Number of Predictors: Is Bayesian Regression a Valid Alternative to Principal Components?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5829, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    47. YAMAMOTO, Yohei & 山本, 庸平, 2016. "Bootstrap Inference for Impulse Response Functions in Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressions," Discussion paper series HIAS-E-26, Hitotsubashi Institute for Advanced Study, Hitotsubashi University.
    48. Antonello D'Agostino & Paolo Surico, 2009. "Does Global Liquidity Help to Forecast U.S. Inflation?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(2‐3), pages 479-489, March.
    49. Tetlow, Robert J. & Ironside, Brian, 2005. "Real-Time Model Uncertainty in the United States: the Fed from 1996-2003," CEPR Discussion Papers 5305, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    50. Boivin, J. & Giannoni, M., 2007. "DSGE Models in a Data-Rich Environment," Working papers 162, Banque de France.
    51. Marc Hallin & Roman Liska, 2008. "Dynamic Factors in the Presence of Block Structure," Economics Working Papers ECO2008/22, European University Institute.
    52. Robert Kollmann & Stefan Zeugner, 2011. "Leverage as a Predictor for Real Activity and Volatility," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2011-009, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
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    54. Marta Bańbura & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2010. "Large Bayesian vector auto regressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 71-92, January.
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    129. Amstad, Marlene & Ye, Huan & Ma, Guonan, 2018. "Developing an underlying inflation gauge for China," BOFIT Discussion Papers 11/2018, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
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  57. Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele, 2004. "The Feldstein-Horioka Fact," CEPR Discussion Papers 4610, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Liangjun Su & Sainan Jin & Yonghui Zhang, 2014. "Specification Test for Panel Data Models with Interactive Fixed Effects," Working Papers 08-2014, Singapore Management University, School of Economics.
    2. Zubarev, Andrei & Trunin, Pavel, 2013. "The Feldstein-Horioka paradox: modern aspects," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, pages 54-73, August.
    3. Laura Jaramillo & Miss Anke Weber, 2013. "Global Spillovers into Domestic Bond Markets in Emerging Market Economies," IMF Working Papers 2013/264, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Drakos, Anastassios A. & Kouretas, Georgios P. & Stavroyiannis, Stavros & Zarangas, Leonidas, 2017. "Is the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle still with us? National saving-investment dynamics and international capital mobility: A panel data analysis across EU member countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 76-88.
    5. Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi & Jean Imbs & Jumana Saleheen, 2016. "Finance and Synchronization," Discussion Papers 1622, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    6. Peter Fuleky & Luigi Ventura & Qianxue Zhao, 2016. "Common Correlated Effects and International Risk Sharing," Working Papers 201612, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
    7. Saten Kumar & Rahul Sen & Sadhana Srivastava, 2014. "Does Economic Integration Stimulate Capital Mobility? An Analysis of Four Regional Economic Communities in Africa," Working Papers 2014-05, Auckland University of Technology, Department of Economics.
    8. Ambaye, Guesh Gebremeske & Berhanu, T. & Abera, G., 2013. "Modeling the Determinats of Domestic Private Investments in Ethiopia," AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Economics and Management, vol. 5(4), pages 1-11, December.
    9. Costantini, Mauro & Gutierrez, Luciano, 2013. "Capital mobility and global factor shocks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 120(3), pages 513-515.
    10. Andrea R. Lamorgese & Gianmarco I.P. Ottaviano, 2006. "Intercity interactions: evidence from the US," 2006 Meeting Papers 667, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    11. Alex Bowen & Emanuele Campiglio & Massimo Tavoni, 2014. "A Macroeconomic Perspective On Climate Change Mitigation: Meeting The Financing Challenge," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 5(01), pages 1-35.
    12. Anastasios Mastroyiannis, 2007. "Current Account Dynamics and the Feldstein and Horioka Puzzle: the Case of Greece," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 4(1), pages 91-99, June.
    13. Kateřina Šímová, 2020. "Verification of Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle (Example of European Union Countries) [Verifikace Feldsteinovy-Horiokovy hádanky (příklad zemí Evropské unie)]," Český finanční a účetní časopis, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2020(2), pages 43-60.
    14. Robin W. Boadway & Jean-François Tremblay, 2016. "Modernizing Business Taxation," C.D. Howe Institute Commentary, C.D. Howe Institute, issue 452, May.
    15. Erauskin, Iñaki, 2015. "Savings, the size of the net foreign asset position, and the dynamics of current accounts," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 353-370.
    16. Jacopo Cimadomo & Agnès Bénassy-Quéré, 2012. "Changing Patterns of Fiscal Policy Multipliers in Germany, the UK and the US," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) hal-00966144, HAL.
    17. Daragh Clancy & Lorenzo Ricci, 2022. "Economic sentiments and international risk sharing," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 169, pages 208-229.
    18. Mariam Camarero & Alejandro Muñoz & Cecilio Tamarit, 2022. "The rise and fall of global financial flows in EU 15: new evidence using dynamic panels with common correlated effects," Working Papers 2212, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.
    19. Salvatore Dell'Erba & Sergio Sola, 2013. "Fiscal Policy, Interest Rates and Risk Premia in Open Economy," IHEID Working Papers 05-2013, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    20. Marlene Amstad & Andreas Fischer, 2005. "Shock Identification of Macroeconomic Forecasts based on Daily Panels," Working Papers 05.02, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
    21. Daragh Clancy & Lorenzo Ricci, 2019. "Loss aversion, economic sentiments and international consumption smoothing," Working Papers 35, European Stability Mechanism.
    22. Lenza, Michele, 2023. "Inflation and wage growth since the pandemic: A comment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    23. Pavel Trunin & Andrey Zubarev, 2013. "The Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle: Modern Aspects," Working Papers 0070, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, revised 2013.
    24. John C. Bluedorn, 2005. "Hurricanes: Intertemporal Trade and Capital Shocks," Economics Papers 2005-W22, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    25. Smets, Frank & Beyer, Robert C. M., 2015. "Labour market adjustments in Europe and the US: How different?," Working Paper Series 1767, European Central Bank.
    26. Sal AMIRKHALKHALI & Atul DAR, 2020. "Saving-Investment-Current Accounts Dynamics, Financial Crisis And Economic Growth: Some Empirical Results," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 20(2), pages 47-56.
    27. Rao, B. Bhaskara & Tamazian, Artur & Kumar, Saten, 2010. "Systems GMM estimates of the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle for the OECD countries and tests for structural breaks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 1269-1273, September.
    28. Trapani, Lorenzo, 2021. "Inferential theory for heterogeneity and cointegration in large panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 220(2), pages 474-503.
    29. Pappa, Evi & Brueckner, Markus & Paczos, Wojtek, 2019. "On the Relationship Between Domestic Saving and the Current Account: Evidence and Theory for Developing Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 14104, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    30. Kumar, Saten & Rao, B. Bhaskara, 2009. "A Time Series Approach to the Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle with Panel Data from the OECD Countries," MPRA Paper 18464, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    31. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert L., 2024. "Uncertainty Shocks and Inflation: The Role of Credibility and Expectation Anchoring," MPRA Paper 119971, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    32. Vasudeva N. R. Murthy & Natalya Ketenci, 2020. "Capital mobility in Latin American and Caribbean countries: new evidence from dynamic common correlated effects panel data modeling," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 6(1), pages 1-17, December.
    33. Hwang, Sun Ho & Kim, Yun Jung, 2018. "Capital mobility in OECD countries: A multi-level factor approach to saving–investment correlations," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 150-159.
    34. Lu, Xun & Su, Liangjun, 2023. "Uniform inference in linear panel data models with two-dimensional heterogeneity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 694-719.
    35. Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2006. "Trends and cycles in the euro area: how much heterogeneity and should we worry about it?," Working Paper Series 595, European Central Bank.
    36. Holmes, Mark J. & Otero, Jesús, 2014. "Re-examining the Feldstein–Horioka and Sachs' views of capital mobility: A heterogeneous panel setup," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 1-11.
    37. Ketenci, Natalya, 2015. "Capital mobility in Russia," Russian Journal of Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(4), pages 386-403.
    38. Ginama, Isamu & Hayakawa, Kazuhiko & Kanmei, Takahiro, 2018. "Examining the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle using common factor panels and interval estimation," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 11-21.
    39. Harald Oberhofer & Christian Glocker & Werner Hölzl & Peter Huber & Serguei Kaniovski & Klaus Nowotny & Michael Pfaffermayr & Monique Ebell & Nikolaos Kontogiannis, 2016. "Single Market Transmission Mechanisms Before, During and After the 2008-09 Crisis. A Quantitative Assessment," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 59156, February.
    40. Joe Garmondyu Greaves, 2018. "Investigating Saving and Investment Relationship: Evidence from an Autoregressive Distributed Lag Bounds Testing Approach in Liberia," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 8(4), pages 89-104.
    41. Navrotska Nataliia, 2013. "Main tendencies of globalisation of savings and investments in the world economy," The Problems of Economy, RESEARCH CENTRE FOR INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT PROBLEMS of NAS (KHARKIV, UKRAINE), issue 2, pages 12-19.
    42. Sal AMIRKHALKHALI & Atul DAR, 2016. "Public Debt, Saving-Investment-Current Account Dynamics, and Capital Mobility in OECD countries, 1999-2013," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 16(1), pages 5-12.
    43. Mr. Salvatore Dell'Erba & Mr. Sergio Sola, 2013. "Does Fiscal Policy Affect Interest Rates? Evidence from a Factor-Augmented Panel," IMF Working Papers 2013/159, International Monetary Fund.
    44. Nataliia Osina, 2021. "Global governance and gross capital flows dynamics," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 157(3), pages 463-493, August.

  58. Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2004. "Euro area and US recessions: 1970-2003," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/6405, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.

    Cited by:

    1. Zeno Enders & Robert Kollmann & Gernot J. Müller, 2011. "Global banking and international business cycles," Globalization Institute Working Papers 72, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    2. Reichlin, Lucrezia & Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele, 2009. "Business Cycles in the Euro Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 7124, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Mili, Mehdi & Sahut, Jean-Michel & Teulon, Frédéric, 2012. "Non linear and asymmetric linkages between real growth in the Euro area and global financial market conditions: New evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 734-741.
    4. Heather M. Anderson & Mardi Dungey & Denise R Osborn & Farshid Vahid, 2010. "Financial Integration and the Construction of Historical Financial Data for the Euro Area," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 152, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    5. Heather Anderson & Mardi Dungey & Denise R. Osborn & Farshid Vahid, 2007. "Constructing Historical Euro Area Data," CAMA Working Papers 2007-18, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    6. Mirko Abbritti; Sebastian Weber, 2008. "Labor Market Rigidities and the Business Cycle: Price vs. Quantity Restricting Institutions," IHEID Working Papers 01-2008, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies, revised Jan 2008.
    7. Alain Kabundi & Elsabé Loots, 2010. "Patterns Of Co‐Movement Between South Africa And Germany: Evidence From The Period 1985 To 2006," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 78(4), pages 383-399, December.
    8. Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Lenza, Michele, 2009. "Business cycles in the euro area," Working Paper Series 1010, European Central Bank.
    9. Robert Pater, 2014. "Are there two types of business cycles? a note on crisis detection," "e-Finanse", University of Information Technology and Management, Institute of Financial Research and Analysis, vol. 10(3), pages 1-28, December.
    10. Marco Lombardi & Mr. Raphael A Espinoza & Fabio Fornari, 2009. "The Role of Financial Variables in Predicting Economic Activity in the Euro Area," IMF Working Papers 2009/241, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Rostagno, Massimo & Altavilla, Carlo & Carboni, Giacomo & Lemke, Wolfgang & Motto, Roberto & Saint Guilhem, Arthur & Yiangou, Jonathan, 2019. "A tale of two decades: the ECB’s monetary policy at 20," Working Paper Series 2346, European Central Bank.

  59. Reichlin, Lucrezia & Sala, Luca & Giannone, Domenico, 2002. "Tracking Greenspan: Systematic and Unsystematic Monetary Policy Revisited," CEPR Discussion Papers 3550, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Fabio C. Bagliano & Claudio Morana, 2006. "International Macroeconomic Dynamics: a Factor Vector Autoregressive Approach," ICER Working Papers 41-2006, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research.
    2. Claudio Morana, 2010. "Heteroskedastic Factor Vector Autoregressive Estimation of Persistent and Non Persistent Processes Subject to Structural Breaks," ICER Working Papers - Applied Mathematics Series 36-2010, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research.
    3. Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & Luca Sala, 2005. "Monetary policy in real time," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/6401, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    4. Andreas Fischer & Marlene Amstad, 2004. "Sequential Information Flow and Real-Time Diagnosis of Swiss Inflation: Intra-Monthly DCF Estimates for a Low-Inflation Environment," Working Papers 04.06, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
    5. Matteo Luciani, 2013. "Monetary Policy, and the Housing Market: A Structural Factor Analysis," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/153324, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    6. Ms. Natalia T. Tamirisa & Alain N. Kabundi & Ms. Deniz O Igan & Mr. Francisco d Nadal De Simone & Marcelo Pinheiro, 2009. "Three Cycles: Housing, Credit, and Real Activity," IMF Working Papers 2009/231, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Eickmeier, Sandra & Breitung, Jörg, 2005. "How synchronized are central and east European economies with the euro area? Evidence from a structural factor model," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,20, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    8. Ben S. Bernanke & Jean Boivin & Piotr Eliasz, 2004. "Measuring the effects of monetary policy: a factor-augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) approach," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-03, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Sala, Luca, 2006. "VARs, common factors and the empirical validation of equilibrium business cycle models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 257-279, May.
    10. Belviso Francesco & Milani Fabio, 2006. "Structural Factor-Augmented VARs (SFAVARs) and the Effects of Monetary Policy," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(3), pages 1-46, December.
    11. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Kapetanios, George, 2006. "Impulse Response Functions from Structural Dynamic Factor Models: A Monte Carlo Evaluation," CEPR Discussion Papers 5621, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Kabundi, Alain & Nadal De Simone, Francisco, 2012. "Recent French relative export performance: Is there a competitiveness problem?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1408-1435.
    13. Elmer Sterken, 2005. "The Role of the Ifo Business Climate Indicator and Asset Prices in German Monetary Policy," Contributions to Economics, in: Jan-Egbert Sturm & Timo Wollmershäuser (ed.), Ifo Survey Data in Business Cycle and Monetary Policy Analysis, pages 173-201, Springer.
    14. Eickmeier, Sandra & Breitung, Jorg, 2006. "How synchronized are new EU member states with the euro area? Evidence from a structural factor model," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 538-563, September.
    15. Filippo Altissimo & Riccardo Cristadoro & Mario Forni & Marco Lippi & Giovanni Veronese, 2010. "New Eurocoin: Tracking Economic Growth in Real Time," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(4), pages 1024-1034, November.
    16. Gary Koop & Simon Potter, 2003. "Forecasting in Large Macroeconomic Panels using Bayesian Model Averaging," Discussion Papers in Economics 04/16, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester.
    17. Sterken, Elmer, 2003. "Monetary transmission, asset prices, and the business cycle indicator in Germany," CCSO Working Papers 200315, University of Groningen, CCSO Centre for Economic Research.
    18. Massimiliano Serati & Gianni Amisano, 2008. "Building composite leading indexes in a dynamic factor model framework: a new proposal," LIUC Papers in Economics 212, Cattaneo University (LIUC).
    19. Eickmeier, Sandra, 2007. "Business cycle transmission from the US to Germany--A structural factor approach," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 521-551, April.
    20. Alejandro Justiniano, 2004. "Sources and Propagation Mechanims of Foreign Disturbances in Small Open Economies: A Dynamic Factor Analysis," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 148, Econometric Society.
    21. James N. Blignaut & Jan H. van Heerden, 2015. "Is Water Shedding Next?," Working Papers 50, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    22. Boivin, J. & Giannoni, M., 2007. "DSGE Models in a Data-Rich Environment," Working papers 162, Banque de France.
    23. Olivier Bandt & Catherine Bruneau & Alexis Flageollet, 2006. "Assessing Aggregate Comovements in France, Germany and Italy Using a Non Stationary Factor Model of the Euro Area," Springer Books, in: Convergence or Divergence in Europe?, pages 95-120, Springer.
    24. Jean Boivin & Serena Ng, 2003. "Are More Data Always Better for Factor Analysis?," NBER Working Papers 9829, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Lucrezia Reichlin, 2003. "Factor models in large cross sections of time series," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10179, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    26. Alain Kabundi & Francisco Nadal De Simone, 2011. "France in the global economy: a structural approximate dynamic factor model analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 41(2), pages 311-342, October.
    27. Fabio Bagliano & Claudio Morana, 2008. "Factor vector autoregressive estimation: a new approach," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 3(1), pages 15-23, June.
    28. In Choi & Dukpa Kim & Yun Jung Kim & Noh-Sun Kwark, 2016. "A Multilevel Factor Model: Identification, Asymptotic Theory and Applications," Working Papers 1609, Nam Duck-Woo Economic Research Institute, Sogang University (Former Research Institute for Market Economy).
    29. Steffen Henzel & Malte Rengel, 2013. "Dimensions of macroeconomic uncertainty: A common factor analysis," ifo Working Paper Series 167, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    30. Abdullah Al-Hassan, 2009. "A Coincident Indicator of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Business Cycle," IMF Working Papers 2009/073, International Monetary Fund.
    31. Mario Forni & Domenico Giannone & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2007. "Opening the Black Box: Structural Factor Models with Large Cross-Sections," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 008, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    32. Sandra Eickmeier, 2009. "Comovements and heterogeneity in the euro area analyzed in a non-stationary dynamic factor model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(6), pages 933-959.
    33. In Choi, 2011. "Efficient Estimation of Nonstationary Factor Models," Working Papers 1101, Nam Duck-Woo Economic Research Institute, Sogang University (Former Research Institute for Market Economy), revised Jun 2011.
    34. Fladung, Michael, 2007. "Spill-over effects of monetary policy: a progress report on interest rate convergence in Europe," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,27, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    35. George Kapetanios & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2006. "Factor-GMM Estimation with Large Sets of Possibly Weak Instruments," Working Papers 577, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    36. Sandra Eickmeier & Christina Ziegler, 2008. "How successful are dynamic factor models at forecasting output and inflation? A meta-analytic approach," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 237-265.
    37. Ansgar Belke & Thorsten Polleit, 2007. "How the ECB and the US Fed set interest rates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(17), pages 2197-2209.
    38. McCallum, Andrew & Smets, Frank, 2007. "Real wages and monetary policy transmission in the euro area," Kiel Working Papers 1360, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    39. Alain Kabundi & Elsabé Loots, 2010. "Patterns Of Co‐Movement Between South Africa And Germany: Evidence From The Period 1985 To 2006," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 78(4), pages 383-399, December.
    40. Eickmeier, Sandra, 2005. "Common stationary and non-stationary factors in the euro area analyzed in a large-scale factor model," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,02, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    41. Romain Houssa, 2004. "Monetary Union in West Africa and Asymmetric Shocks: A Dynamic Structural Factor Model Approach," Development and Comp Systems 0409063, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    42. Eickmeier, Sandra, 2006. "Comovements and heterogeneity in the Comovements and heterogeneity in the dynamic factor model," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,31, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    43. Erdemlioglu, Deniz, 2009. "Macro Factors in UK Excess Bond Returns: Principal Components and Factor-Model Approach," MPRA Paper 28895, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    44. Sandra Eickmeier & Joerg Breitung, 2006. "Business cycle transmission from the euro area to CEECs," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 229, Society for Computational Economics.
    45. Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Forni, Mario, 2003. "Opening the Black Box: Structural Factor Models versus Structural VARs," CEPR Discussion Papers 4133, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    46. Pappa, Evi & Molteni, Francesco, 2017. "The Combination of Monetary and Fiscal Policy Shocks: A TVP-FAVAR Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 12541, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    47. Blaes, Barno, 2009. "Money and monetary policy transmission in the euro area: evidence from FAVAR- and VAR approaches," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2009,18, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    48. David Navrátil, 2004. "Systematická složka měnové politiky ČNB v režimu cílování inflace [Systematic part of CNB's monetary policy in inflation targeting regime]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2004(5), pages 623-636.
    49. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2005. "Implications of Dynamic Factor Models for VAR Analysis," NBER Working Papers 11467, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    50. Fabio C. Bagliano & Claudio Morana, 2006. "A New Approach to Factor Vector Autoregressive Estimation with an Application to Large-Scale Macroeconometric Modelling," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 28, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
    51. Andrea Beltratti & Claudio Morana, 2008. "International shocks and national house prices," ICER Working Papers - Applied Mathematics Series 14-2008, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research.
    52. Ansgar Belke & Wim Kösters & Martin Leschke & Thorsten Polleit, 2005. "Back to the rules," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 268/2005, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.
    53. Alain Kabundi, 2009. "Synchronisation Between South Africa And The U.S.: A Structural Dynamic Factor Analysis," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 77(1), pages 1-27, March.
    54. Alain Kabundi & Elsabé Loots, 2009. "Patterns of co-movement between a developed and emerging market economy: The case of South Africa and Germany," Working Papers 159, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    55. Juho Koistinen & Bernd Funovits, 2022. "Estimation of Impulse-Response Functions with Dynamic Factor Models: A New Parametrization," Papers 2202.00310, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2022.
    56. In Choi, 2012. "Model Selection for Factor Analysis: Some New Criteria and Performance Comparisons," Working Papers 1209, Nam Duck-Woo Economic Research Institute, Sogang University (Former Research Institute for Market Economy).
    57. Tais Carestiato Da Silva & Helder Ferreira De Mendonça, 2011. "Setting The Interest Rate For Twooutlier Countries," Anais do XXXVIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 38th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 207, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    58. Ullrich, Katrin, 2003. "A Comparison Between the Fed and the ECB: Taylor Rules," ZEW Discussion Papers 03-19, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    59. Benoit Mojon, 2007. "Monetary policy, output composition and the Great Moderation," Working Paper Series WP-07-07, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

  60. Reichlin, Lucrezia & Sala, Luca & Giannone, Domenico, 2002. "VARs, Common Factors and the Empirical Validation of Equilibrium Business Cycle Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 3701, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Mario Forni & Luca Gambetti & Luca Sala, 2011. "No News in Business Cycles," Working Papers 535, Barcelona School of Economics.
    2. Antonello D'Agostino & Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Michele Modugno, 2015. "Nowcasting Business Cycles: a Bayesian Approach to Dynamic Heterogeneous Factor Models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-66, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Davide Brignone & Alessandro Franconi & Marco Mazzali, 2023. "Robust Impulse Responses using External Instruments: the Role of Information," Papers 2307.06145, arXiv.org.
    4. Mario Forni & Luca Gambetti, 2010. "Macroeconomic Shocks and the Business Cycle: Evidence from a Structural Factor Model," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 040, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    5. Antolin-Diaz, Juan & Drechsel, Thomas & Petrella, Ivan, 2017. "Tracking the slowdown in long-run GDP growth," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 81869, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    6. Petrella, Ivan & Drechsel, Thomas & Antolin-Diaz, Juan, 2014. "Following the Trend: Tracking GDP when Long-Run Growth is Uncertain," CEPR Discussion Papers 10272, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Dias Francisco & Rua António & Pinheiro Maximiano, 2013. "Determining the number of global and country-specific factors in the euro area," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(5), pages 573-617, December.
    8. Raffaella Giacomini, 2013. "The relationship between DSGE and VAR models," CeMMAP working papers CWP21/13, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    9. Giancarlo Corsetti & Luca Dedola & Sylvain Leduc, 2008. "Productivity, External Balance, and Exchange Rates: Evidence on the Transmission Mechanism among G7 Countries," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2006, pages 117-194, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Dupaigne, Martial & Fève, Patrick & Matheron, Julien, 2005. "Technology Shocks and Employment: Do We Really Need DSGE Models with a Fall in Hours?," IDEI Working Papers 349, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
    11. Dordonnat, Virginie & Koopman, Siem Jan & Ooms, Marius, 2012. "Dynamic factors in periodic time-varying regressions with an application to hourly electricity load modelling," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(11), pages 3134-3152.
    12. Jeroen V.K. Rombouts & Jakob Guldbæk Mikkelsen, 2017. "Testing for time-varying loadings in dynamic factor models," CREATES Research Papers 2017-22, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    13. Özer Karagedikli & Troy Matheson & Christie Smith & Shaun P. Vahey, 2007. "RBCs and DSGEs:The Computational Approach to Business Cycle Theory and Evidence," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2007/15, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    14. Bodnar, Taras & Reiß, Markus, 2016. "Exact and asymptotic tests on a factor model in low and large dimensions with applications," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 125-151.
    15. Marc Hallin & Roman Liska, 2008. "Dynamic Factors in the Presence of Block Structure," Economics Working Papers ECO2008/22, European University Institute.
    16. Forni, Mario & Gambetti, Luca, 2008. "The Dynamic Effects of Monetary Policy: A Structural Factor Model Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 7098, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. Zsolt Darvas & György Szapáry, 2008. "Business Cycle Synchronization in the Enlarged EU," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 1-19, February.
    18. Francesco Lamperti, 2016. "Empirical Validation of Simulated Models through the GSL-div: an Illustrative Application," LEM Papers Series 2016/18, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    19. Chevallier, Julien, 2011. "Macroeconomics, finance, commodities: Interactions with carbon markets in a data-rich model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 557-567.
    20. Forni, Mario & Gambetti, Luca & Lippi, Marco & Sala, Luca, 2020. "Common Component Structural VARs," CEPR Discussion Papers 15529, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    21. Mario Forni & Domenico Giannone & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2007. "Opening the Black Box: Structural Factor Models with Large Cross-Sections," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 008, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    22. Piyachart Phiromswad & Takeshi Yagihashi, 2016. "Empirical identification of factor models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(2), pages 621-658, September.
    23. Wang, Zongrun & Zhou, Ling & Mi, Yunlong & Shi, Yong, 2022. "Measuring dynamic pandemic-related policy effects: A time-varying parameter multi-level dynamic factor model approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    24. Tibor Szendrei & Katalin Varga, 2020. "FISS – A Factor-based Index of Systemic Stress in the Financial System," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 79(1), pages 3-34, March.
    25. Kyriaki-Argyro Tsioptsia & Eleni Zafeiriou & Dimitrios Niklis & Nikolaos Sariannidis & Constantin Zopounidis, 2022. "The Corporate Economic Performance of Environmentally Eligible Firms Nexus Climate Change: An Empirical Research in a Bayesian VAR Framework," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-16, October.
    26. Francesco Bianchi & Giovanni Nicolo & Dongho Song, 2023. "Inflation and Real Activity over the Business Cycle," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-038, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    27. Mario Forni & Luca Gambetti & Luca Sala, 2018. "Fundamentalness, Granger Causality and Aggregation," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 139, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    28. Daniel Wochner, 2020. "Dynamic Factor Trees and Forests – A Theory-led Machine Learning Framework for Non-Linear and State-Dependent Short-Term U.S. GDP Growth Predictions," KOF Working papers 20-472, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    29. Zhao Zhao & Guowei Cui & Shaoping Wang, 2017. "A Monte Carlo comparison of estimating the number of dynamic factors," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(3), pages 1217-1241, November.
    30. Lucia Alessi & Matteo Barigozzi & Marco Capasso, 2009. "A Robust Criterion for Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Working Papers ECARES 2009_023, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    31. AMMOURI, Bilel & TOUMI, Hassen & Zitouna, Habib, 2015. "Forecasting Inflation in Tunisia Using Dynamic Factors Model," MPRA Paper 65514, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    32. Luca Sala & Luca Gambetti & Mario Forni, 2016. "VAR Information and the Empirical Validation of DSGE Models," 2016 Meeting Papers 260, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    33. Minxian Yang, 2017. "Effects of idiosyncratic shocks on macroeconomic time series," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(4), pages 1441-1461, December.
    34. Simon Freyaldenhoven, 2017. "A Generalized Factor Model with Local Factors," 2017 Papers pfr361, Job Market Papers.
    35. Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Forni, Mario, 2003. "Opening the Black Box: Structural Factor Models versus Structural VARs," CEPR Discussion Papers 4133, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    36. Gregor B urle, 2008. "Priors from DSGE Models for Dynamic Factor Analysis," Diskussionsschriften dp0803, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
    37. Francesco Lamperti, 2015. "An Information Theoretic Criterion for Empirical Validation of Time Series Models," LEM Papers Series 2015/02, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    38. Lamperti, Francesco, 2018. "An information theoretic criterion for empirical validation of simulation models," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 5(C), pages 83-106.
    39. Barhoumi, K. & Darné, O. & Ferrara, L., 2013. "Dynamic Factor Models: A review of the Literature ," Working papers 430, Banque de France.
    40. Eric M. Leeper & Todd B. Walker & Shu-Chun Susan Yang, 2008. "Fiscal Foresight: Analytics and Econometrics," NBER Working Papers 14028, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    41. Fabio Canova & Filippo Ferroni, 2011. "Multiple filtering devices for the estimation of cyclical DSGE models," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 2(1), pages 73-98, March.
    42. António Rua & Francisco Craveiro Dias, 2008. "Determining the number of factors in approximate factor models with global and group-specific factors," Working Papers w200809, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    43. rea cipollini & giuseppe missaglia, 2005. "Business cycle effects on Portfolio Credit Risk: scenario generation through Dynamic Factor analysis," Finance 0502010, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    44. Renee Fry & Adrian Pagan, 2005. "Some Issues In Using Vars For Macroeconometric Research," CAMA Working Papers 2005-19, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    45. Forni, Mario & Cavicchioli, Maddalena & Lippi, Marco & Zaffaroni, Paolo, 2016. "Eigenvalue Ratio Estimators for the Number of Common Factors," CEPR Discussion Papers 11440, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    46. Francesco Lamperti, 2018. "Empirical validation of simulated models through the GSL-div: an illustrative application," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 13(1), pages 143-171, April.
    47. Lucia Alessi & Matteo Barigozzi & Marco Capasso, 2007. "A Review of Nonfundamentalness and Identification in Structural VAR Models," LEM Papers Series 2007/22, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    48. Giancarlo Corsetti & Luca Dedola & Sylvain Leduc, 2007. "Productivity and the dollar," Working Paper Series 2007-27, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    49. Hallin, Marc & Liska, Roman, 2011. "Dynamic factors in the presence of blocks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 163(1), pages 29-41, July.
    50. Raffaella Giacomini, 2013. "The relationship between DSGE and VAR models," CeMMAP working papers 21/13, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    51. Darvas, Zsolt & Szapáry, György, 2004. "Konjunktúraciklusok együttmozgása a régi és új EU-tagországokban [Business cycle harmonization in new and old EU member-states]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(5), pages 415-448.

Articles

  1. Cascaldi-Garcia, Danilo & Ferreira, Thiago R.T. & Giannone, Domenico & Modugno, Michele, 2024. "Back to the present: Learning about the euro area through a now-casting model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 661-686.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  2. Cimadomo, Jacopo & Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Monti, Francesca & Sokol, Andrej, 2022. "Nowcasting with large Bayesian vector autoregressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(2), pages 500-519.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  3. Adams, Patrick A. & Adrian, Tobias & Boyarchenko, Nina & Giannone, Domenico, 2021. "Forecasting macroeconomic risks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1173-1191.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  4. Tobias Adrian & Nina Boyarchenko & Domenico Giannone, 2021. "Multimodality In Macrofinancial Dynamics," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 62(2), pages 861-886, May.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  5. Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2021. "Economic Predictions With Big Data: The Illusion of Sparsity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(5), pages 2409-2437, September.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  6. Tobias Adrian & Nina Boyarchenko & Domenico Giannone, 2019. "Vulnerable Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(4), pages 1263-1289, April.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  7. Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2019. "Money, Credit, Monetary Policy, and the Business Cycle in the Euro Area: What Has Changed Since the Crisis?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 15(5), pages 137-173, December.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  8. Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2019. "Priors for the Long Run," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 114(526), pages 565-580, April.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  9. Del Negro, Marco & Giannone, Domenico & Giannoni, Marc P. & Tambalotti, Andrea, 2019. "Global trends in interest rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 248-262.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  10. Brandyn Bok & Daniele Caratelli & Domenico Giannone & Argia M. Sbordone & Andrea Tambalotti, 2018. "Macroeconomic Nowcasting and Forecasting with Big Data," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 10(1), pages 615-643, August.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  11. Delle Chiaie, Simona & Ferrara, Laurent & Giannone, Domenico, 2018. "Common factors of commodity prices," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 51.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  12. Altavilla, Carlo & Giannone, Domenico & Modugno, Michele, 2017. "Low frequency effects of macroeconomic news on government bond yields," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 31-46.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  13. A. Colangelo & D. Giannone & M. Lenza & H. Pill & L. Reichlin, 2017. "The national segmentation of euro area bank balance sheets during the financial crisis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 247-265, August.

    Cited by:

    1. Alberto Caruso & Lucrezia Reichlin & Giovanni Ricco, 2019. "Financial and fiscal interaction in the euro area crisis: this time was different," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03403269, HAL.
    2. Andreas Beyer & Benoît Coeuré & Caterina Mendicino, 2017. "Foreword – The crisis, ten years after: Lessons learnt for monetary and financial research," Economie et Statistique / Economics and Statistics, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (INSEE), issue 494-495-4, pages 45-64.
    3. Marie‐Hélène Gagnon & Céline Gimet, 2023. "One size may not fit all: Financial fragmentation and European monetary policies," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 305-340, February.
    4. Nikolay Hristov & Oliver Hülsewig & Johann Scharler, 2020. "Unconventional Monetary Policy Shocks in the Euro Area and the Sovereign-Bank Nexus," CESifo Working Paper Series 8178, CESifo.

  14. Marco Del Negro & Domenico Giannone & Marc P. Giannoni & Andrea Tambalotti, 2017. "Safety, Liquidity, and the Natural Rate of Interest," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 48(1 (Spring), pages 235-316.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  15. Carlo Altavilla & Domenico Giannone, 2017. "The Effectiveness of Non‐Standard Monetary Policy Measures: Evidence from Survey Data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(5), pages 952-964, August.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  16. Laura Coroneo & Domenico Giannone & Michele Modugno, 2016. "Unspanned Macroeconomic Factors in the Yield Curve," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(3), pages 472-485, July.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  17. Carlo Altavilla & Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza, 2016. "The Financial and Macroeconomic Effects of the OMT Announcements," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 12(3), pages 29-57, September.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  18. Giannone, Domenico & Monti, Francesca & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2016. "Exploiting the monthly data flow in structural forecasting," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 201-215.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  19. Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2015. "Prior Selection for Vector Autoregressions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 97(2), pages 436-451, May.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  20. Bańbura, Marta & Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele, 2015. "Conditional forecasts and scenario analysis with vector autoregressions for large cross-sections," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 739-756.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  21. Conflitti, Cristina & De Mol, Christine & Giannone, Domenico, 2015. "Optimal combination of survey forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1096-1103.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  22. Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Momferatou, Daphne & Onorante, Luca, 2014. "Short-term inflation projections: A Bayesian vector autoregressive approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 635-644.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  23. Antonello D'Agostino & Luca Gambetti & Domenico Giannone, 2013. "Macroeconomic forecasting and structural change," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(1), pages 82-101, January.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  24. Antonello D’ Agostino & Domenico Giannone, 2012. "Comparing Alternative Predictors Based on Large‐Panel Factor Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 74(2), pages 306-326, April.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  25. Domenico Giannone & Jérôme Henry & Magdalena Lalik & Michele Modugno, 2012. "An Area-Wide Real-Time Database for the Euro Area," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(4), pages 1000-1013, November.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  26. Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Huw Pill & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2012. "The ECB and the Interbank Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(564), pages 467-486, November.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  27. Catherine Doz & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2012. "A Quasi–Maximum Likelihood Approach for Large, Approximate Dynamic Factor Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(4), pages 1014-1024, November.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  28. Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2011. "Market Freedom and the Global Recession," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 59(1), pages 111-135, April.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  29. Doz, Catherine & Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2011. "A two-step estimator for large approximate dynamic factor models based on Kalman filtering," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 164(1), pages 188-205, September.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  30. Elena Angelini & Gonzalo Camba‐Mendez & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & Gerhard Rünstler, 2011. "Short‐term forecasts of euro area GDP growth," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 14(1), pages 25-44, February.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  31. Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza, 2010. "The Feldstein-Horioka Fact," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 6(1), pages 103-117.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  32. Marta Banbura & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2010. "Large Bayesian vector auto regressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 71-92.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  33. Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza, 2009. "Business cycles in the euro area," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 8, pages 5-7.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  34. Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Simonelli, Saverio, 2009. "Nowcasting Euro Area Economic Activity in Real Time: The Role of Confidence Indicators," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 210, pages 90-97, October.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  35. Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2009. "Comments on "Forecasting economic and financial variables with global VARs"," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 684-686, October.

    Cited by:

    1. Arnold Zellner & Jacques K. Ngoie, 2012. "Evaluation of the Effects of Reduced Personal and Corporate Tax Rates on the Growth Rates of the U.S. Economy," Working Papers 280, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    2. Dr. Gregor Bäurle & Elizabeth Steiner & Dr. Gabriel Züllig, 2018. "Forecasting the production side of GDP," Working Papers 2018-16, Swiss National Bank.
    3. Camehl, Annika, 2023. "Penalized estimation of panel vector autoregressive models: A panel LASSO approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1185-1204.
    4. Florian Huber & Jesus Crespo-Cuaresma & Martin Feldkircher, 2014. "Forecasting with Bayesian Global Vector Autoregressions," ERSA conference papers ersa14p25, European Regional Science Association.
    5. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Bai, Yu & Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd, 2022. "Macroeconomic Forecasting in a Multi-country Context," CEPR Discussion Papers 16994, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Martin Feldkircher & Florian Huber, 2016. "Forecasting with Global Vector Autoregressive Models: a Bayesian Approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(7), pages 1371-1391, November.
    7. Helmut Herwartz, 2011. "Forecast accuracy and uncertainty in applied econometrics: a recommendation of specific-to-general predictor selection," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 41(2), pages 487-510, October.
    8. Tomáš Slacík & Katharina Steiner & Julia Wörz, 2014. "Can Trade Partners Help Better FORCEE the Future? Impact of Trade Linkages on Economic Growth Forecasts in Selected CESEE Countries," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 36-56.
    9. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Martin Feldkircher & Florian Huber, 2014. "Forecasting with Bayesian Global Vector Autoregressive Models: A Comparison of Priors," Working Papers 189, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).

  36. Forni, Mario & Giannone, Domenico & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2009. "Opening The Black Box: Structural Factor Models With Large Cross Sections," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(5), pages 1319-1347, October.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  37. Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Small, David, 2008. "Nowcasting: The real-time informational content of macroeconomic data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 665-676, May.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  38. Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2008. "Explaining The Great Moderation: It Is Not The Shocks," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(2-3), pages 621-633, 04-05.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  39. De Mol, Christine & Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2008. "Forecasting using a large number of predictors: Is Bayesian shrinkage a valid alternative to principal components?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 318-328, October.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  40. Domenico Giannone & Troy D. Matheson, 2007. "A New Core Inflation Indicator for New Zealand," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(4), pages 145-180, December.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  41. Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2006. "Does information help recovering structural shocks from past observations?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 4(2-3), pages 455-465, 04-05.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  42. Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Sala, Luca, 2006. "VARs, common factors and the empirical validation of equilibrium business cycle models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 257-279, May.
    See citations under working paper version above.

Chapters

  1. Marco Del Negro & Domenico Giannone & Marc Giannoni & Andrea Tambalotti, 2018. "Global Trends in Interest Rates," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2018, pages 248-262, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  2. Antonello D’Agostino & Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Michele Modugno, 2016. "Nowcasting Business Cycles: A Bayesian Approach to Dynamic Heterogeneous Factor Models," Advances in Econometrics, in: Dynamic Factor Models, volume 35, pages 569-594, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  3. Bańbura, Marta & Giannone, Domenico & Modugno, Michele & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2013. "Now-Casting and the Real-Time Data Flow," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 195-237, Elsevier.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  4. Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza, 2010. "The Feldstein-Horioka Fact," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2009, pages 103-117, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  5. Domenico Giannone, 2010. "Comment on "Can Parameter Instability Explain the Meese-Rogoff Puzzle?"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2009, pages 180-190, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Byrne, Joseph P & Korobilis, Dimitris & Ribeiro, Pinho J, 2014. "On the Sources of Uncertainty in Exchange Rate Predictability," MPRA Paper 58956, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Byrne, Joseph P. & Korobilis, Dimitris & Ribeiro, Pinho J., 2014. "Exchange Rate Predictability in a Changing World," SIRE Discussion Papers 2014-021, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    3. Haroon Mumtaz & Laura Sunder‐Plassmann, 2013. "Time‐Varying Dynamics Of The Real Exchange Rate: An Empirical Analysis," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(3), pages 498-525, April.

  6. Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2010. "Business Cycles in the Euro Area," NBER Chapters, in: Europe and the Euro, pages 141-167, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  7. Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & Luca Sala, 2005. "Monetary Policy in Real Time," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004, Volume 19, pages 161-224, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    See citations under working paper version above.
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