IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ces/ifosdt/v74y2021i03p03-25.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Post-Covid-19 Economy: What Unexpected Traces Does the Crisis Leave Behind in Industries, Regions, and Structures?

Author

Listed:
  • Klaus-Heiner Röhl
  • Joachim Ragnitz
  • Ulrich Walwei
  • Timo Wollmershäuser
  • Justus Haucap
  • Jarko Fidrmuc
  • Florian Horky
  • Philipp Reichle
  • Fabian Reck
  • Birgit Felden

Abstract

The coronavirus crisis and the ongoing lockdown are likely to permanently change the structure of the German economy, at least in some areas. The organization of work has shifted in the direction of working from home; online retail is showing high growth rates, while stationary specialist retail is suffering heavy losses. The lockdown has also seen massive declines in customer-facing services such as catering, tourism, and the cultural and leisure sectors. The longer the lockdown and the disruptions continue, the more likely it is that there will be lasting structural damage to the economy. What are the consequences for the labor market? Will regional disparities in Germany increase?

Suggested Citation

  • Klaus-Heiner Röhl & Joachim Ragnitz & Ulrich Walwei & Timo Wollmershäuser & Justus Haucap & Jarko Fidrmuc & Florian Horky & Philipp Reichle & Fabian Reck & Birgit Felden, 2021. "The Post-Covid-19 Economy: What Unexpected Traces Does the Crisis Leave Behind in Industries, Regions, and Structures?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 74(03), pages 03-25, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:74:y:2021:i:03:p:03-25
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/sd-2021-03-roehl-etal-corona-strukturwandel.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sheth, Jagdish, 2020. "Impact of Covid-19 on consumer behavior: Will the old habits return or die?," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 280-283.
    2. Pasquale Commendatore & Saime Kayam & Ingrid Kubin (ed.), 2015. "Complexity and Geographical Economics," Dynamic Modeling and Econometrics in Economics and Finance, Springer, edition 127, number 978-3-319-12805-4, July-Dece.
    3. Kassoum Ayouba & Marie-Laure Breuillé & Camille Grivault & Julie Le Gallo, 2020. "Does Airbnb Disrupt the Private Rental Market? An Empirical Analysis for French Cities," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 43(1-2), pages 76-104, January.
    4. Timo Wollmershäuser & Marcell Göttert & Christian Grimme & Stefan Lautenbacher & Robert Lehmann & Sebastian Link & Manuel Menkhoff & Sascha Möhrle & Ann-Christin Rathje & Magnus Reif & Pauliina Sandqv, 2020. "ifo Economic Forecast Winter 2020: The Coronavirus Strikes Back – Another Lockdown Slows the Economy for a Second Time," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 73(Sonderaus), pages 03-61, December.
    5. Mona Förtsch & Xenia Frei & Anna Kremer & Joachim Ragnitz, 2021. "Regional Risk and Resilience Factors – An Analysis for Germany," ifo Dresden Studien, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 86.
    6. Klaus-Heiner Röhl & Gerit Vogt, 2020. "Unternehmensinsolvenzen: Corona-Krise verstört [Corporate insolvencies: Corona crisis disturptions]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 100(5), pages 384-386, May.
    7. Bańbura, Marta & Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele, 2015. "Conditional forecasts and scenario analysis with vector autoregressions for large cross-sections," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 739-756.
    8. Hanna Halaburda & Bruno Jullien & Yaron Yehezkel, 2020. "Dynamic competition with network externalities: how history matters," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 51(1), pages 3-31, March.
    9. Berger, Thor & Chen, Chinchih & Frey, Carl Benedikt, 2018. "Drivers of disruption? Estimating the Uber effect," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 197-210.
    10. Petra Schneider & Lukas Folkens & Andreas Meyer & Tino Fauk, 2019. "Sustainability and Dimensions of a Nexus Approach in a Sharing Economy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-19, February.
    11. Henger, Ralph M. & Oberst, Christian, 2019. "Immer mehr Menschen verlassen die Großstädte wegen Wohnungsknappheit," IW-Kurzberichte 20/2019, Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW) / German Economic Institute.
    12. Da Silva, António Dias & Dossche, Maarten & Dreher, Ferdinand & Foroni, Claudia & Koester, Gerrit, 2020. "Short-time work schemes and their effects on wages and disposable income," Economic Bulletin Boxes, European Central Bank, vol. 4.
    13. Valesca Lima, 2019. "Towards an understanding of the regional impact of Airbnb in Ireland," Regional Studies, Regional Science, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 78-91, January.
    14. Bedre-Defolie, Özlem & Nitsche, Rainer, 2020. "When Do Markets Tip? An Overview and Some Insights for Policy," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 11(10), pages 610-622.
    15. Joachim Ragnitz, 2020. "Long-term Economic Impact of the Coronavirus Pandemic," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 73(11), pages 25-30, November.
    16. Remo Nitschke, 2021. "The Burden of Corona Debt - What Burdens Will Federal State Budgets Face in the Coming Years?," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 28(01), pages 03-09, February.
    17. Justus Haucap, 2021. "Plattformökonomie und Wettbewerb," Springer Books, in: Peter Kenning & Andreas Oehler & Lucia A. Reisch (ed.), Verbraucherwissenschaften, edition 2, pages 423-452, Springer.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jennifer Gossen & Fabian Reck, 2021. "The End of the Sharing Economy? Impact of COVID-19 on Airbnb in Germany," Economic Research Guardian, Weissberg Publishing, vol. 11(2), pages 255-269, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tedds, Lindsay M. & Cameron, Anna & Khanal, Mukesh & Crisan, Daria, 2021. "Why Existing Regulatory Frameworks Fail in the Short-term Rental Market: Exploring the Role of Regulatory Fractures," MPRA Paper 106712, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Reichle, Philipp & Fidrmuc, Jarko & Reck, Fabian, 2023. "The sharing economy and housing markets in selected European cities," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    3. Morales-Alonso, Gustavo & Núñez, Yilsy M., 2022. "Dragging on multilisting: The reason why home-sharing platforms make long-term rental prices increase and how to fix it," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    4. Caruso, Alberto & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Ricco, Giovanni, 2019. "Financial and fiscal interaction in the Euro Area crisis: This time was different," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 333-355.
    5. Anastasios Evgenidis & Stephanos Papadamou, 2021. "The impact of unconventional monetary policy in the euro area. Structural and scenario analysis from a Bayesian VAR," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 5684-5703, October.
    6. Ali Zackery & Joseph Amankwah-Amoah & Zahra Heidari Darani & Shiva Ghasemi, 2022. "COVID-19 Research in Business and Management: A Review and Future Research Agenda," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-32, August.
    7. Iftekhairul Islam & Fahad Shaon, 2020. "If the Prospect of Some Occupations Are Stagnating With Technological Advancement? A Task Attribute Approach to Detect Employment Vulnerability," Papers 2001.02783, arXiv.org.
    8. Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia & Ricco, Giovanni, 2018. "Bayesian Vector Autoregressions," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1159, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    9. V. I. Blanutsa, 2022. "Geographic Research of the Platform Economy: Existing and Potential Approaches," Regional Research of Russia, Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 133-142, June.
    10. Marco Del Negro & Michele Lenza & Giorgio E. Primiceri & Andrea Tambalotti, 2020. "What's Up with the Phillips Curve?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 51(1 (Spring), pages 301-373.
    11. Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Domenico Giannone & Eric Qian & Argia M. Sbordone, 2021. "A Large Bayesian VAR of the United States Economy," Staff Reports 976, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    12. Salman Huseynov, 2021. "Long and short memory in dynamic term structure models," CREATES Research Papers 2021-15, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    13. Elena Bonel & Mauro Capestro & Eleonora Di Maria, 2023. "How COVID-19 impacted cultural consumption: an explorative analysis of Gen Z’s digital museum experiences," Italian Journal of Marketing, Springer, vol. 2023(2), pages 135-160, June.
    14. Yannis Bakos & Hanna Halaburda, 2022. "Overcoming the Coordination Problem in New Marketplaces via Cryptographic Tokens," Information Systems Research, INFORMS, vol. 33(4), pages 1368-1385, December.
    15. Conti, Antonio M., 2017. "Has the FED Fallen behind the Curve? Evidence from VAR models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 164-168.
    16. Timo Wollmershäuser & Przemyslaw Brandt & Christian Grimme & Max Lay & Robert Lehmann & Sebastian Link & Manuel Menkhoff & Sascha Möhrle & Ann-Christin Rathje & Pauliina Sandqvist & Radek Šauer & Marc, 2021. "ifo Konjunkturprognose Sommer 2021: Deutsche Wirtschaft im Spannungsfeld zwischen Öffnungen und Lieferengpässen," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 74(Sonderaus), pages 01-52, June.
    17. Roberta Capello & Andrea Caragliu, 2021. "Regional growth and disparities in a post‐COVID Europe: A new normality scenario," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(4), pages 710-727, September.
    18. Mauro Bambi & Daria Ghilli & Fausto Gozzi & Marta Leocata, 2021. "Habits and demand changes after COVID-19," Papers 2107.00909, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2022.
    19. Hui Li & Yijin Kim & Kannan Srinivasan, 2022. "Market Shifts in the Sharing Economy: The Impact of Airbnb on Housing Rentals," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(11), pages 8015-8044, November.
    20. Baumgarten, Daniel & Kvasnicka, Michael, 2017. "Temporary agency work and the Great Recession," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 29-44.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:74:y:2021:i:03:p:03-25. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ifooode.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.