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Smells Like Fiscal Policy? Assessing the Potential Effectiveness of the ECB's OMT Program

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  • Nikolay Hristov
  • Oliver Hülsewig
  • Thomas Siemsen
  • Timo Wollmershäuser

Abstract

This paper explores the potential effectiveness of the ECB’s Outright Monetary Transaction (OMT) program in safeguarding an appropriate monetary policy transmission. Since the program aims at manipulating bank lending rates by conducting sovereign bond purchases on secondary markets, a stable relationship between bank lending rates and government bond rates is of prime importance. Using vector autoregressive models with time varying parameters (TVP–VAR) we evaluate the stability of this relationship by focusing on the reaction of bank lending rates to movements in government bond rates over the period 2003–2013. Our results suggest that the potential success of OMTs in restoring the monetary transmission mechanism is limited as the link between bank lending rates and government bond rates has substantially weakened since the end of 2008.

Suggested Citation

  • Nikolay Hristov & Oliver Hülsewig & Thomas Siemsen & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2014. "Smells Like Fiscal Policy? Assessing the Potential Effectiveness of the ECB's OMT Program," CESifo Working Paper Series 4628, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_4628
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    Cited by:

    1. Steffen Henzel & Wolfgang Nierhaus & Tim Oliver Berg & Christian Breuer & Kai Carstensen & Christian Grimme & Oliver Hülsewig & Atanas Hristov & Nikolay Hristov & Michael Kleemann & Wolfgang Meister &, 2013. "Ifo Economic Forecast 2013/2014: German Economy Picks Up Steam," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 66(24), pages 20-67, December.
    2. Lucas Hafemann & Peter Tillmann, 2020. "The Aggregate and Country-Specific Effectiveness of ECB Policy: Evidence from an External Instruments VAR Approach," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(6), pages 97-136, December.
    3. Nikolay Hristov & Oliver Hülsewig & Thomas Siemsen & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2014. "The European Central Bank’s OMT Programme," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 67(04), pages 15-16, February.
    4. Lucas Hafemann & Peter Tillmann, 2017. "The Aggregate and Country-Specific Effectiveness of ECB Policy: Evidence from an External Instruments (VAR) Approach," European Economy - Discussion Papers 063, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    5. Lucas Hafemann & Peter Tillmann, 2017. "The aggregate and country-speci c e ectiveness of ECB policy: evidence from an external instruments (VAR) approach," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201720, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    6. Christopher Weber, 2017. "The Collateral Policy of Central Banks - An Analysis Focusing on the Eurosystem," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 72.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    European Central Bank; OMT program; time varying parameter vector autoregressive model; interest rate pass-through;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy

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