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Global inflation

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Author Info
Matteo Ciccarelli
Benoît Mojon

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Abstract

This paper shows that inflation in industrialized countries is largely a global phenomenon. First, the inflation rates of 22 OECD countries have a common factor that alone accounts for nearly 70 percent of their variance. This large variance share that is associated with Global Inflation is not only due to the trend components of inflation (up from 1960 to 1980 and down thereafter) but also to fluctuations at business cycle frequencies. Second, we show that, in conformity to the prediction of New Keynesian open economy models, there is little spillover of inflationary shocks across countries. The comovement of inflation comes largely from common shocks. Global Inflation is a function of real developments at short horizons and monetary developments at longer horizons. Third, there is a robust "error correction mechanism" that brings national inflation rates back to Global Inflation. A simple model that accounts for this feature consistently beats the previous benchmarks used to forecast inflation 4 to 8 quarters ahead across samples and countries.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago in its series Working Paper Series with number WP-08-05.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedhwp:wp-08-05

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Keywords: Inflation (Finance);

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  13. Matteo Ciccarelli & Benoît Mojon, 2005. "Global inflation," Working Paper Series 537, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  28. Ignazio Angeloni & Luc Aucremanne & Matteo Ciccarelli, 2006. "Price setting and inflation persistence: did EMU matter?," Working Paper Series 597, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  36. Tommaso Monacelli & Luca Sala, 2009. "The International Dimension of Inflation: Evidence from Disaggregated Consumer Price Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(s1), pages 101-120, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Peng-fei Wang & Yi Wen, 2006. "Inflation dynamics: a cross-country investigation," Working Papers 2005-076, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Haroon Mumtaz & Paolo Surico, 2006. "Inflation Globalization and the Fall of Country Specific Fluctuations," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 166, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Jean Boivin & Marc Giannoni, 2008. "Global Forces and Monetary Policy Effectiveness," NBER Working Papers 13736, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Martin Schneider & Gerhard Fenz, 2008. "Transmission of business cycle shocks between the US and the euro area," Working Papers 145, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank). [Downloadable!]
  5. Ansgar Belke & Walter Orth, 2007. "Global Excess Liquidity and House Prices - A VAR Analysis for OECD Countries," Ruhr Economic Papers 0037, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen. [Downloadable!]
  6. Belke, Ansgar & Orth, Walter & Setzer, Ralph, 2008. "Liquidity and the dynamic pattern of price adjustment: a global view," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2008,25, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  7. Rasmus Rüffer & Livio Stracca, 2006. "What is global excess liquidity, and does it matter?," Working Paper Series 696, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Haroon Mumtaz & Paolo Surico, . "Evolving international inflation dynamics: evidence from a time-varying dynamic factor model," Bank of England working papers 341, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Günter W. Beck & Kirstin Hubrich & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2006. "Regional inflation dynamics within and across euro area countries and a comparison with the US," Working Paper Series 681, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  10. Michele Modugno & Kleopatra Nikolaou, 2009. "The forecasting power of international yield curve linkages," Working Paper Series 1044, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  11. Matteo Ciccarelli & Benoît Mojon, 2007. "Global Inflation," Kiel Working Papers 1337, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Fabio C. Bagliano & Claudio Morana, 2006. "International Macroeconomic Dynamics: A Factor Vector Autoregressive Approach," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 32, Collegio Carlo Alberto. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Alessandro Calza, 2008. "Globalisation, domestic inflation and global output gaps - evidence from the euro area," Working Paper Series 890, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  14. Robert Anderton & Paul Hiebert, . "The Impact of Globalisation on the Euro Area Macroeconomy," Discussion Papers 09/14, University of Nottingham, GEP. [Downloadable!]
  15. Alessandro Calza, 2008. "Globalisation, domestic inflation and the global output gaps: evidence from the Euro era," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 13, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. [Downloadable!]
  16. Jane Ihrig & Steven B. Kamin & Deborah Lindner & Jaime Marquez, 2007. "Some simple tests of the globalization and inflation hypothesis," International Finance Discussion Papers 891, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  17. Gernot Pehnelt, 2007. "Globalisation and Inflation in OECD Countries," Jena Economic Research Papers in Economics 2007-055, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena, Max-Planck-Institute of Economics, Thueringer Universitaets- und Landesbibliothek. [Downloadable!]
  18. Henriksen, Espen & Kydland, Finn & Sustek, Roman, 2008. "The High Cross-Country Correlations of Prices and Interest Rates," MPRA Paper 10963, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  19. Guenter Beck & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2006. "Regional Inflation Dynamics within and across Euro Area and a Comparison with the US," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 338, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  20. Craig S. Hakkio, 2009. "Global inflation dynamics," Research Working Paper RWP 09-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
  21. Ansgar Belke & Walter Orth & Ralph Setzer, 2008. "Sowing the seeds for the subprime crisis: does global liquidity matter for housing and other asset prices?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 403-424, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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