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Measuring Corporate Bond Market Dislocations

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Abstract

We link bond market functioning to future economic activity through a new measure, the Corporate Bond Market Distress Index (CMDI). The CMDI coalesces metrics from primary and secondary markets in real time, offering a unified measure to capture access to capital markets credit. The index correctly identifies periods of distress and predicts future realizations of commonly used measures of market functioning, while the converse is not the case. We show that disruptions in access to corporate bond markets have an economically material, statistically significant impact on the real economy, even after controlling for standard predictors including credit spreads, which emphasizes the need to evaluate credit market conditions from a broader perspective than secondary market spreads.

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  • Nina Boyarchenko & Richard K. Crump & Anna Kovner & Or Shachar, 2021. "Measuring Corporate Bond Market Dislocations," Staff Reports 957, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:89473
    Note: Revised December 2022.
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    Cited by:

    1. Boyarchenko, Nina & Kovner, Anna & Shachar, Or, 2022. "It’s what you say and what you buy: A holistic evaluation of the corporate credit facilities," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(3), pages 695-731.
    2. Nina Boyarchenko & Caren Cox & Richard K. Crump & Andrew Danzig & Anna Kovner & Or Shachar & Patrick Steiner, 2021. "COVID Response: The Primary and Secondary Corporate Credit Facilities," Staff Reports 986, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    corporate bond market conditions; corporate bond spreads; corporate bond issuance; corporate bond liquidity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G19 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Other

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