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How the ECB and the US Fed set interest rates

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Author Info
Ansgar Belke
Thorsten Polleit

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Abstract

Monetary policies of the European Central Bank (ECB) and US Fed can be characterized by 'Taylor rules', that is both central banks seem to be setting rates by taking into account the 'output gap' and inflation. We also set up and tested Taylor rules which incorporate money growth and the euro-dollar exchange rate, thereby improving the 'fit' between actual and Taylor rule based rates. In general, Taylor rules appear to be a much better way of describing Fed policy than ECB policy. Simulations suggest that the ECB's short-term interest rates have been at a much lower level in the last 2 years compared with what a Taylor rule would suggest.

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File URL: http://www.informaworld.com/openurl?genre=article&doi=10.1080/00036840600749623&magic=repec&7C&7C8674ECAB8BB840C6AD35DC6213A474B5
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Article provided by Taylor and Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): 39 (2007)
Issue (Month): 17 ()
Pages: 2197-2209
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Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:39:y:2007:i:17:p:2197-2209

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Hoffmann, Andreas, 2009. "An Overinvestment Cycle in Central and Eastern Europe?," MPRA Paper 15668, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 11 Oct 2009. [Downloadable!]
  2. Bernd Hayo & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2009. "Does FOMC Communication Help Predicting Federal Funds Target Rate Changes?," MAGKS Papers on Economics 200925, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung). [Downloadable!]
  3. Hoffmann, Andreas, 2009. "Fear of depression - Asymmetric monetary policy with respect to asset markets," MPRA Paper 17522, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  4. Fourçans, André & Vranceanu, Radu, 2008. "Money in the Inflation Equation: the Euro Area Evidence," ESSEC Working Papers DR 08012, ESSEC Research Center, ESSEC Business School. [Downloadable!]
  5. Ansgar Belke & Jens Klose, 2009. "We assess the differences that emerge in Taylor rule estimations for the ECB when using ex-post data instead of real time forecasts and vice versa.We argue that previous comparative studies in this fi," Ruhr Economic Papers 0133, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen. [Downloadable!]
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