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Assessment Of GDP Growth After The Corona Crisis Using The Results Of Business And Consumer Surveys

Author

Listed:
  • Liudmila Kitrar

    (National Research University Higher School of Economics)

  • Tamara Lipkind

    (National Research University Higher School of Economics)

Abstract

The article analyses the short-term effects of aggregate economic sentiment on the expected GDP growth in Russia based on the results of regular large-scale surveys of business activity of the Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation for the period 1998-2020. The main purpose of the study is to substantiate the predictive value of the opinions of economic agents in expanding macroeconomic information, including in crisis periods. The authors calculate a composite economic sentiment indicator (ESI), which combines quarterly information for the analysed period on 18 indicators of surveys with a sample of about 24,000 organizations of all size in basic kinds of economic activity, and 5,000 consumers in all Russian regions. The authors prove the possibility of using a vector autoregression model (VAR) with dummy variables to measure the relationship between GDP growth and ESI time series. Scenario estimates of GDP growth until the end of 2021 are based on the expected impulses in the ESI dynamics at the end of 2020, which differ in the amplitude and duration of their impact on economic growth, primarily due to the coronavirus effect. According to the results, under all possible scenarios for the development of business trends, national economic growth can exceed the level of the end of 2019, starting from the third quarter of 2021

Suggested Citation

  • Liudmila Kitrar & Tamara Lipkind, 2021. "Assessment Of GDP Growth After The Corona Crisis Using The Results Of Business And Consumer Surveys," HSE Working papers WP BRP 118/STI/2021, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:hig:wpaper:118sti2021
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    business and consumer surveys; economic sentiment indicator; composite business cycle indicators; growth cycles; GDP growth; economic growth; VAR model with dummy variables;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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