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Introducing the Euro-STING: Short-Term Indicator of Euro Area Growth

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Author Info
Camacho, Maximo
Pérez-Quirós, Gabriel

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Abstract

We set out a model to compute short-term forecasts of the euro area GDP growth in real-time. To allow for forecast evaluation, we construct a real-time data set that changes for each vintage date and includes the exact information that was available at the time of each forecast. With this data set, we show that our simple factor model algorithm, which uses a clear, easy-to-replicate methodology, is able to forecast the euro area GDP growth as well as professional forecasters who can combine the best forecasting tools with the possibility of incorporating their own judgement. In this context, we provide examples showing how data revisions and data availability affect point forecasts and forecast uncertainty.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 7343.

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Date of creation: Jun 2009
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:7343

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Related research
Keywords: Business cycle; Forecasting; Time Series;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    Other versions:
  3. Filippo Altissimo & Riccardo Cristadoro & Mario Forni & Marco Lippi & Giovanni Veronese, 2007. "New Eurocoin: Tracking Economic Growth in Real Time," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 631, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Boivin, Jean & Ng, Serena, 2006. "Are more data always better for factor analysis?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 169-194, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. S. Boragan Aruoba & Francis X. Diebold & Chiara Scotti, 2008. "Real-Time Measurement of Business Conditions," NBER Working Papers 14349, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Gerhard Rünstler & Franck Sédillot, 2003. "Short-term estimates of euro area real GDP by means of monthly data," Working Paper Series 276, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  7. Diebold, Francis X & Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1996. "Measuring Business Cycles: A Modern Perspective," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 67-77, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Croushore, Dean & Stark, Tom, 2001. "A real-time data set for macroeconomists," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 111-130, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2002. "The Unreliability of Output-Gap Estimates in Real Time," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(4), pages 569-583, 07. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Marie Diron, 2006. "Short-term forecasts of euro area real GDP growth - an assessment of real-time performance based on vintage data," Working Paper Series 622, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  11. N. Gregory Mankiw & Matthew D. Shapiro, 1986. "News or Noise? An Analysis of GNP Revisions," NBER Working Papers 1939, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Tommaso Proietti & Filippo Moauro, 2004. "Dynamic Factor Analysis with Nonlinear Temporal Aggregation Constraints," Econometrics 0401003, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & David Small, 2005. "Nowcasting GDP and inflation: the real-time informational content of macroeconomic data releases," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-42, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  14. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-63, July.
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  15. Marta Banbura & Gerhard Rünstler, 2007. "A look into the factor model black box - publication lags and the role of hard and soft data in forecasting GDP," Working Paper Series 751, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. S. Boragan Aruoba & Francis X. Diebold & Chiara Scotti, 2008. "Real-Time Measurement of Business Conditions," NBER Working Papers 14349, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. S. Boragan Aruoba & Francis X. Diebold & Chiara Scotti, 2007. "Real-Time Measurement of Business Conditions, Second Version," PIER Working Paper Archive 08-011, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 04 Apr 2008. [Downloadable!]
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