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Combinatorial Information Market Design

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Schnitzlein, Charles & Chelley-Steeley, Patricia & Steeley, James M, 2024. "Conflicting versus reinforcing private information, information aggregation, and the time series properties of asset prices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
  2. Julia Mortera & A. Philip Dawid, 2017. "A Note on Prediction Markets," Departmental Working Papers of Economics - University 'Roma Tre' 0215, Department of Economics - University Roma Tre.
  3. Guillermo Angeris & Alex Evans & Tarun Chitra, 2020. "When does the tail wag the dog? Curvature and market making," Papers 2012.08040, arXiv.org.
  4. Werner Antweiler, 2012. "Long-Term Prediction Markets," Journal of Prediction Markets, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 6(3), pages 43-61.
  5. Mueller-Frank, Manuel, 2014. "Does one Bayesian make a difference?," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 423-452.
  6. Armantier, Olivier & Treich, Nicolas, 2013. "Eliciting beliefs: Proper scoring rules, incentives, stakes and hedging," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 17-40.
  7. Marko Corn & Nejc Rov{z}man, 2021. "Unihedge -- A decentralized market prediction platform," Papers 2108.11631, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2021.
  8. Snowberg, Erik & Wolfers, Justin & Zitzewitz, Eric, 2013. "Prediction Markets for Economic Forecasting," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 657-687, Elsevier.
  9. Lawrence Choo & Todd R. Kaplan & Ro’i Zultan, 2022. "Manipulation and (Mis)trust in Prediction Markets," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(9), pages 6716-6732, September.
  10. Rafael Frongillo, 2022. "Quantum Information Elicitation," Papers 2203.07469, arXiv.org.
  11. Karimi, Majid & Zaerpour, Nima, 2022. "Put your money where your forecast is: Supply chain collaborative forecasting with cost-function-based prediction markets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 300(3), pages 1035-1049.
  12. Justin Wolfers & Eric Zitzewitz, 2004. "Prediction Markets," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(2), pages 107-126, Spring.
  13. Johan Perols & Kaushal Chari & Manish Agrawal, 2009. "Information Market-Based Decision Fusion," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(5), pages 827-842, May.
  14. Ivo Blohm & Christoph Riedl & Johann Fuller & Orhan Koroglu & Jan Marco Leimeister & Helmut Krcmar, 2012. "The Effects of Prediction Market Design and Price Elasticity on Trading Performance of Users: An Experimental Analysis," Papers 1204.3457, arXiv.org.
  15. Jan Arvid Berg & Robin Fritsch & Lioba Heimbach & Roger Wattenhofer, 2022. "An Empirical Study of Market Inefficiencies in Uniswap and SushiSwap," Papers 2203.07774, arXiv.org, revised May 2022.
  16. Michael Ostrovsky, 2012. "Information Aggregation in Dynamic Markets With Strategic Traders," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(6), pages 2595-2647, November.
  17. Spyros Galanis & Christos A Ioannou & Stelios Kotronis, 2024. "Information Aggregation Under Ambiguity: Theory and Experimental Evidence," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 91(6), pages 3423-3467.
  18. Wolfers, Justin & Zitzewitz, Eric, 2006. "Prediction Markets in Theory and Practice," CEPR Discussion Papers 5578, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  19. Mikuláš Gangur & Miroslav Plevný, 2014. "Tools for Consumer Rights Protection in the Prediction of Electronic Virtual Market and Technological Changes," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 16(36), pages 578-578, May.
  20. Bradly Alicea, 2014. "Contextual and Structural Representations of Market-mediated Economic Value," Papers 1403.7021, arXiv.org.
  21. Tsakas, Elias, 2020. "Robust scoring rules," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 15(3), July.
  22. Ueda, Masahiko, 2020. "Common knowledge equilibrium of Boolean securities in distributed information market," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 386(C).
  23. Galanis Spyros & Kotronis Stelios, 2021. "Updating Awareness and Information Aggregation," The B.E. Journal of Theoretical Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(2), pages 613-635, June.
  24. Bergemann, Dirk & Ottaviani, Marco, 2021. "Information Markets and Nonmarkets," CEPR Discussion Papers 16459, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  25. Spyros Galanis & Sergei Mikhalishchev, 2024. "Information Aggregation with Costly Information Acquisition," Papers 2406.07186, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2024.
  26. Pavel Atanasov & Phillip Rescober & Eric Stone & Samuel A. Swift & Emile Servan-Schreiber & Philip Tetlock & Lyle Ungar & Barbara Mellers, 2017. "Distilling the Wisdom of Crowds: Prediction Markets vs. Prediction Polls," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(3), pages 691-706, March.
  27. Dian Yu & Jianjun Gao & Weiping Wu & Zizhuo Wang, 2022. "Price Interpretability of Prediction Markets: A Convergence Analysis," Papers 2205.08913, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2023.
  28. Siddarth Srinivasan & Ezra Karger & Yiling Chen, 2023. "Self-Resolving Prediction Markets for Unverifiable Outcomes," Papers 2306.04305, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2025.
  29. Guillermo Angeris & Akshay Agrawal & Alex Evans & Tarun Chitra & Stephen Boyd, 2021. "Constant Function Market Makers: Multi-Asset Trades via Convex Optimization," Papers 2107.12484, arXiv.org.
  30. Hanea, A.M. & McBride, M.F. & Burgman, M.A. & Wintle, B.C. & Fidler, F. & Flander, L. & Twardy, C.R. & Manning, B. & Mascaro, S., 2017. "I nvestigate D iscuss E stimate A ggregate for structured expert judgement," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 267-279.
  31. Hongzhou Chen & Xiaolin Duan & Abdulmotaleb El Saddik & Wei Cai, 2024. "Political Leanings in Web3 Betting: Decoding the Interplay of Political and Profitable Motives," Papers 2407.14844, arXiv.org.
  32. Alex Evans, 2020. "Liquidity Provider Returns in Geometric Mean Markets," Papers 2006.08806, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2020.
  33. Steffen Andersen & John Fountain & Glenn Harrison & E. Rutström, 2014. "Estimating subjective probabilities," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 207-229, June.
  34. Ledyard, John & Hanson, Robin & Ishikida, Takashi, 2009. "An experimental test of combinatorial information markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 182-189, February.
  35. Emerson Melo, 2021. "Learning In Random Utility Models Via Online Decision Problems," CAEPR Working Papers 2022-003 Classification-D, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.
  36. Rajiv Sethi & Julie Seager & Emily Cai & Daniel M. Benjamin & Fred Morstatter, 2021. "Models, Markets, and the Forecasting of Elections," Papers 2102.04936, arXiv.org, revised May 2021.
  37. Yiling Chen & Mike Ruberry & Jennifer Wortman Vaughan, 2012. "Designing Informative Securities," Papers 1210.4837, arXiv.org.
  38. Daniel Kirste & Niclas Kannengie{ss}er & Ricky Lamberty & Ali Sunyaev, 2023. "Automated Market Makers in Cryptoeconomic Systems: A Taxonomy and Archetypes," Papers 2309.12818, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2025.
  39. Lambert, Nicolas S. & Langford, John & Wortman Vaughan, Jennifer & Chen, Yiling & Reeves, Daniel M. & Shoham, Yoav & Pennock, David M., 2015. "An axiomatic characterization of wagering mechanisms," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 389-416.
  40. Forsell, Eskil & Viganola, Domenico & Pfeiffer, Thomas & Almenberg, Johan & Wilson, Brad & Chen, Yiling & Nosek, Brian A. & Johannesson, Magnus & Dreber, Anna, 2019. "Predicting replication outcomes in the Many Labs 2 study," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 75(PA).
  41. Robin Hanson, 2006. "Designing real terrorism futures," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 128(1), pages 257-274, July.
  42. Frank M. A. Klingert & Matthias Meyer, 2018. "Comparing Prediction Market Mechanisms: An Experiment-Based and Micro Validated Multi-Agent Simulation," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 21(1), pages 1-7.
  43. Razvan Tarnaud, 2019. "Convergence within binary market scoring rules," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 68(4), pages 1017-1050, November.
  44. Riekhof, Hans-Christian & Riekhof, Marie-Catherine & Brinkhoff, Stefan, 2012. "Predictive Markets: Ein vielversprechender Weg zur Verbesserung der Prognosequalität im Unternehmen?," PFH Forschungspapiere/Research Papers 2012/07, PFH Private University of Applied Sciences, Göttingen.
  45. Strijbis, Oliver & Arnesen, Sveinung, 2019. "Explaining variance in the accuracy of prediction markets," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 408-419.
  46. Papakonstantinou, A. & Rogers, A & Gerding, E. H. & Jennings, N. R., 2010. "Mechanism Design for the truthful elicitation of costly probabilistic estimates in Distributed Information Systems," MPRA Paper 43324, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  47. Sam M. Werner & Daniel Perez & Lewis Gudgeon & Ariah Klages-Mundt & Dominik Harz & William J. Knottenbelt, 2021. "SoK: Decentralized Finance (DeFi)," Papers 2101.08778, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2022.
  48. Sascha Hägele, 2024. "Centralized exchanges vs. decentralized exchanges in cryptocurrency markets: A systematic literature review," Electronic Markets, Springer;IIM University of St. Gallen, vol. 34(1), pages 1-21, December.
  49. Paul J. Healy & Sera Linardi & J. Richard Lowery & John O. Ledyard, 2010. "Prediction Markets: Alternative Mechanisms for Complex Environments with Few Traders," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 56(11), pages 1977-1996, November.
  50. Florian Teschner & David Rothschild & Henner Gimpel, 2017. "Manipulation in Conditional Decision Markets," Group Decision and Negotiation, Springer, vol. 26(5), pages 953-971, September.
  51. van Bruggen, G.H. & Spann, M. & Lilien, G.L. & Skiera, B., 2006. "Institutional Forecasting: The Performance of Thin Virtual Stock Markets," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2006-028-MKT, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
  52. Felix Holzmeister & Magnus Johannesson & Colin F. Camerer & Yiling Chen & Teck-Hua Ho & Suzanne Hoogeveen & Juergen Huber & Noriko Imai & Taisuke Imai & Lawrence Jin & Michael Kirchler & Alexander Ly , 2025. "Examining the replicability of online experiments selected by a decision market," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 9(2), pages 316-330, February.
  53. Vijay Mohan, 2022. "Automated market makers and decentralized exchanges: a DeFi primer," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-48, December.
  54. Johan Almenberg & Ken Kittlitz & Thomas Pfeiffer, 2009. "An Experiment on Prediction Markets in Science," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 4(12), pages 1-7, December.
  55. Shipra Agrawal & Erick Delage & Mark Peters & Zizhuo Wang & Yinyu Ye, 2011. "A Unified Framework for Dynamic Prediction Market Design," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 59(3), pages 550-568, June.
  56. Frongillo, Rafael M. & Kash, Ian A., 2021. "General truthfulness characterizations via convex analysis," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 636-662.
  57. Abraham Othman & Tuomas Sandholm, 2013. "The Gates Hillman prediction market," Review of Economic Design, Springer;Society for Economic Design, vol. 17(2), pages 95-128, June.
  58. Ivo Blohm & Christoph Riedl & Johann Füller & Jan Marco Leimeister, 2016. "Rate or Trade? Identifying Winning Ideas in Open Idea Sourcing," Information Systems Research, INFORMS, vol. 27(1), pages 27-48, March.
  59. Hajime Mizuyama & Seiyu Yamaguchi & Mizuho Sato, 2019. "A Prediction Market-Based Gamified Approach to Enhance Knowledge Sharing in Organizations," Simulation & Gaming, , vol. 50(5), pages 572-597, October.
  60. Lian Jian & Rahul Sami, 2012. "Aggregation and Manipulation in Prediction Markets: Effects of Trading Mechanism and Information Distribution," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(1), pages 123-140, January.
  61. Andreas Heusler & Dominik Molitor & Martin Spann, 2019. "How Knowledge Stock Exchanges can increase student success in Massive Open Online Courses," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(9), pages 1-17, September.
  62. Yongge Wang, 2020. "Automated Market Makers for Decentralized Finance (DeFi)," Papers 2009.01676, arXiv.org, revised May 2024.
  63. Johannes Rude Jensen & Mohsen Pourpouneh & Kurt Nielsen & Omri Ross, 2021. "The Homogenous Properties of Automated Market Makers," Papers 2105.02782, arXiv.org.
  64. Wei Sun & Robin Hanson & Kathryn Blackmond Laskey & Charles Twardy, 2012. "Probability and Asset Updating using Bayesian Networks for Combinatorial Prediction Markets," Papers 1210.4900, arXiv.org.
  65. Rajiv Sethi & Jennifer Wortman Vaughan, 2016. "Belief Aggregation with Automated Market Makers," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 48(1), pages 155-178, June.
  66. Grainger, Daniel & Watkin-Lui, Felecia & Cheer, Karen, 2021. "The value of informed agency for Torres Strait climate change," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
  67. Florian Teschner & Henner Gimpel, 2018. "Crowd Labor Markets as Platform for Group Decision and Negotiation Research: A Comparison to Laboratory Experiments," Group Decision and Negotiation, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 197-214, April.
  68. Guillermo Angeris & Tarun Chitra, 2020. "Improved Price Oracles: Constant Function Market Makers," Papers 2003.10001, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2020.
  69. Edoardo Gaffeo, 2013. "Using information markets in grantmaking. An assessment of the issues involved and an application to Italian banking foundations," DEM Discussion Papers 2013/08, Department of Economics and Management.
  70. Majid Karimi & Stanko Dimitrov, 2018. "On the Road to Making Science of “Art”: Risk Bias in Market Scoring Rules," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 15(2), pages 72-89, June.
  71. Arman Abgaryan & Utkarsh Sharma, 2023. "Dynamic Function Market Maker," Papers 2307.13624, arXiv.org.
  72. Shipra Agrawal & Erick Delage & Mark Peters & Zizhuo Wang & Yinyu Ye, 2009. "A Unified Framework for Dynamic Pari-Mutuel Information Market Design," Papers 0902.2429, arXiv.org.
  73. Arthur Carvalho & Stanko Dimitrov & Kate Larson, 2018. "On proper scoring rules and cumulative prospect theory," EURO Journal on Decision Processes, Springer;EURO - The Association of European Operational Research Societies, vol. 6(3), pages 343-376, November.
  74. Tsakas, Elias, 2018. "Robust scoring rules," Research Memorandum 023, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).
  75. Sung, Ming-Chien & McDonald, David C.J. & Johnson, Johnnie E.V. & Tai, Chung-Ching & Cheah, Eng-Tuck, 2019. "Improving prediction market forecasts by detecting and correcting possible over-reaction to price movements," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 272(1), pages 389-405.
  76. Yuqing Kong & Grant Schoenebeck, 2022. "False Consensus, Information Theory, and Prediction Markets," Papers 2206.02993, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2022.
  77. Pankaj Pandey & Einar Snekkenes, 2016. "Using Financial Instruments to Transfer the Information Security Risks," Future Internet, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-62, May.
  78. Niklas Valentin Lehmann, 2023. "Forecasting skill of a crowd-prediction platform: A comparison of exchange rate forecasts," Papers 2312.09081, arXiv.org.
  79. Nicolas Della Penna & Mark D. Reid, 2011. "Bandit Market Makers," Papers 1112.0076, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2013.
  80. Kensuke Ito, 2024. "Cryptoeconomics and Tokenomics as Economics: A Survey with Opinions," Papers 2407.15715, arXiv.org.
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