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Examining the replicability of online experiments selected by a decision market

Author

Listed:
  • Felix Holzmeister

    (University of Innsbruck)

  • Magnus Johannesson

    (Stockholm School of Economics)

  • Colin F. Camerer

    (California Institute of Technology)

  • Yiling Chen

    (Harvard University)

  • Teck-Hua Ho

    (Nanyang Technological University)

  • Suzanne Hoogeveen

    (Utrecht University)

  • Juergen Huber

    (University of Innsbruck)

  • Noriko Imai

    (Osaka University)

  • Taisuke Imai

    (Osaka University)

  • Lawrence Jin

    (National University of Singapore)

  • Michael Kirchler

    (University of Innsbruck)

  • Alexander Ly

    (University of Amsterdam
    Centrum Wiskunde and Informatica)

  • Benjamin Mandl

    (Independent Researcher)

  • Dylan Manfredi

    (University of Pennsylvania)

  • Gideon Nave

    (University of Pennsylvania)

  • Brian A. Nosek

    (University of Virginia
    Center for Open Science)

  • Thomas Pfeiffer

    (Massey University)

  • Alexandra Sarafoglou

    (University of Amsterdam)

  • Rene Schwaiger

    (University of Innsbruck)

  • Eric-Jan Wagenmakers

    (University of Amsterdam)

  • Viking Waldén

    (Sveriges Riksbank)

  • Anna Dreber

    (University of Innsbruck
    Stockholm School of Economics)

Abstract

Here we test the feasibility of using decision markets to select studies for replication and provide evidence about the replicability of online experiments. Social scientists (n = 162) traded on the outcome of close replications of 41 systematically selected MTurk social science experiments published in PNAS 2015–2018, knowing that the 12 studies with the lowest and the 12 with the highest final market prices would be selected for replication, along with 2 randomly selected studies. The replication rate, based on the statistical significance indicator, was 83% for the top-12 and 33% for the bottom-12 group. Overall, 54% of the studies were successfully replicated, with replication effect size estimates averaging 45% of the original effect size estimates. The replication rate varied between 54% and 62% for alternative replication indicators. The observed replicability of MTurk experiments is comparable to that of previous systematic replication projects involving laboratory experiments.

Suggested Citation

  • Felix Holzmeister & Magnus Johannesson & Colin F. Camerer & Yiling Chen & Teck-Hua Ho & Suzanne Hoogeveen & Juergen Huber & Noriko Imai & Taisuke Imai & Lawrence Jin & Michael Kirchler & Alexander Ly , 2025. "Examining the replicability of online experiments selected by a decision market," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 9(2), pages 316-330, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nathum:v:9:y:2025:i:2:d:10.1038_s41562-024-02062-9
    DOI: 10.1038/s41562-024-02062-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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