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The economic effects of violent conflict: Evidence from asset market reactions

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  1. Paola Vesco & Ghassan Baliki & Tilman Brück & Debarati Guha-Sapir & Jonathan Hall & Stefan Döring & Anneli Eriksson & Hanne Fjelde & Carl Henrik Knutsen & Maxine R. Leis & Hannes Mueller & Christopher, 2024. "The impacts of armed conflict on human development: a review of the literature," HiCN Working Papers 414, Households in Conflict Network.
  2. Hartwell, Christopher A. & Zadorozhna, Olha, 2024. "The connections that bind: Political connectivity in the face of geopolitical disruption," Journal of International Management, Elsevier, vol. 30(3).
  3. Pandey, Dharen Kumar & Lucey, Brian M. & Kumar, Satish, 2023. "Border disputes, conflicts, war, and financial markets research: A systematic review," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
  4. Ali M. Kutan & Mehmet E. Yaya, 2016. "Armed conflict and financial and economic risk: evidence from Colombia," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 18(2), pages 159-187, August.
  5. David Macro & Jeroen Weesie, 2016. "Inequalities between Others Do Matter: Evidence from Multiplayer Dictator Games," Games, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-23, April.
  6. Hassan, M Kabir & Boubaker, Sabri & Kumari, Vineeta & Pandey, Dharen Kumar, 2022. "Border disputes and heterogeneous sectoral returns: An event study approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
  7. Layna Mosley & Victoria Paniagua & Erik Wibbels, 2020. "Moving markets? Government bond investors and microeconomic policy changes," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(2), pages 197-249, July.
  8. Kollias Christos & Papadamou Stephanos & Psarianos Iacovos, 2014. "Rogue State Behavior and Markets: the Financial Fallout of North Korean Nuclear Tests," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 20(2), pages 267-292, April.
  9. Philip Barrett & Mariia Bondar & Sophia Chen & Mali Chivakul & Deniz Igan, 2024. "Pricing protest: the response of financial markets to social unrest," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 28(4), pages 1419-1450.
  10. Matthias Neuenkirch & Maria Repko & Enzo Weber, 2022. "Hawks and Doves: Financial Market Perception of Western Support for Ukraine," Working Papers 398, Leibniz Institut für Ost- und Südosteuropaforschung (Institute for East and Southeast European Studies).
  11. Bouoiyour, Jamal & Selmi, Refk & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Wohar, Mark E., 2019. "What are the categories of geopolitical risks that could drive oil prices higher? Acts or threats?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
  12. Hanedar, Avni Önder & Hanedar, Elmas Yaldız, 2017. "Ottoman stock returns during the Turco-Italian and Balkan Wars of 1910-1914," eabh Papers 17-02, The European Association for Banking and Financial History (EABH).
  13. Hanedar, Avni Önder & Yaldız Hanedar, Elmas, 2017. "Stock market reactions to wars and political risks: A cliometric perspective for a falling empire," MPRA Paper 85600, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 25 Mar 2018.
  14. Refk Selmi & Christos Kollias & Stephanos Papadamou & Rangan Gupta, 2017. "A Copula-Based Quantile-on-Quantile Regression Approach to Modeling Dependence Structure between Stock and Bond Returns: Evidence from Historical Data of India, South Africa, UK and US," Working Papers 201747, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  15. Selmi, Refk & Bouoiyour, Jamal, 2020. "Arab geopolitics in turmoil: Implications of Qatar-Gulf crisis for business," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 100-119.
  16. Kashif Zaheer & Faheem Aslam & Yasir Tariq Mohmand & Paulo Ferreira, 2024. "On the Dynamic Changes in the Global Stock Markets’ Network during the Russia–Ukraine War," Economies, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-27, February.
  17. Klaus Abbink & Jordi Brandts & Benedikt Herrmann & Henrik Orzen, 2010. "Intergroup Conflict and Intra-group Punishment in an Experimental Contest Game," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(1), pages 420-447, March.
  18. Mnasri, Ayman & Nechi, Salem, 2016. "Impact of terrorist attacks on stock market volatility in emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 184-202.
  19. Manuel Hoffmann & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2017. "The pro-Russian conflict and its impact on stock returns in Russia and the Ukraine," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 61-73, January.
  20. Piotr Fiszeder & Marta Ma³ecka, 2022. "Forecasting volatility during the outbreak of Russian invasion of Ukraine: application to commodities, stock indices, currencies, and cryptocurrencies," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 17(4), pages 939-967, December.
  21. Christos Kollias & Stephanos Papadamou & Vangelis Arvanitis, 2013. "Symposium - Does Terrorism Affect the Stock-Bond Covariance? Evidence from European Countries," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 832-848, April.
  22. Kumari, Vineeta & Kumar, Gaurav & Pandey, Dharen Kumar, 2023. "Are the European Union stock markets vulnerable to the Russia–Ukraine war?," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
  23. Kallberg, Jarl & Liu, Crocker H. & Pasquariello, Paolo, 2008. "Updating expectations: An analysis of post-9/11 returns," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 400-432, November.
  24. Hai-Jie Wang & Yong Geng & Xi-Qiang Xia & Quan-Jing Wang, 2021. "Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Carbon Emissions: Evidence from 137 Multinational Countries," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(1), pages 1-12, December.
  25. Izatov, Asset, 2014. "Testing the Effect of the Conflict in Georgia in 2008 on Energy Market," MPRA Paper 70787, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  26. Emon Kalyan Chowdhury & Iffat Ishrat Khan, 2024. "Reactions of Global Stock Markets to the Russia–Ukraine War: An Empirical Evidence," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 31(3), pages 755-778, September.
  27. Boubaker, Sabri & Goodell, John W. & Pandey, Dharen Kumar & Kumari, Vineeta, 2022. "Heterogeneous impacts of wars on global equity markets: Evidence from the invasion of Ukraine," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
  28. Chen, Junyi & Kibriya, Shahriar & Bessler, David & Price, Edwin, 2018. "The relationship between conflict events and commodity prices in Sudan," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 663-684.
  29. Godwin Olasehinde-Williams & Mehmet Balcilar, 2018. "The Long-run Effect of Geopolitical Risks on Insurance Premiums," Working Papers 15-44, Eastern Mediterranean University, Department of Economics.
  30. Yiyeon Kim, 2021. "The geographic scope of conflict and HIV," International Journal of Health Planning and Management, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(6), pages 2313-2322, November.
  31. David Kreitmeir & Nathan Lane & Paul A. Raschky, 2020. "The Value of Names - Civil Society, Information, and Governing Multinationals on the Global Periphery," SoDa Laboratories Working Paper Series 2020-10, Monash University, SoDa Laboratories.
  32. Karolyi, G. Andrew, 2006. "The Consequences of Terrorism for Financial Markets: What Do We Know?," Working Paper Series 2006-6, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
  33. repec:ehu:dfaeii:6468 is not listed on IDEAS
  34. Xiao, Jihong & Wen, Fenghua & He, Zhifang, 2023. "Impact of geopolitical risks on investor attention and speculation in the oil market: Evidence from nonlinear and time-varying analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 267(C).
  35. Zhou, Xiaoran & Enilov, Martin & Parhi, Mamata, 2024. "Does oil spin the commodity wheel? Quantile connectedness with a common factor error structure across energy and agricultural markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
  36. Hyejin Kim & Jungmin Lee, 2021. "The Economic Costs of Diplomatic Conflict: Evidence from the South Korea–China THAAD Dispute," Korean Economic Review, Korean Economic Association, vol. 37, pages 225-262.
  37. Kollias, Christos & Kyrtsou, Catherine & Papadamou, Stephanos, 2013. "The effects of terrorism and war on the oil price–stock index relationship," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 743-752.
  38. Antonio Fernandois & Carlos A. Medel, 2020. "Geopolitical tensions, OPEC news, and the oil price: A granger causality analysis," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business, vol. 35(2), pages 57-90, October.
  39. Zadorozhna Olha & Zaderey Natalia, 2013. "Impact of Political Regime Shift on Stock Returns of Oligarch Firms," EERC Working Paper Series 13/06e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
  40. Hyejin Kim & Jungmin Lee, 2020. "The Economic Costs of Diplomatic Conflict," Working Papers 2020-25, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
  41. Rubin, Ofir D. & Ihle, Rico & Kachel, Yael & Goodwin, Barry K., 2013. "The impact of violent political conflict on commodity prices: The Israeli food market," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 150961, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  42. Hassouneh, Islam & Couleau, Anabelle & Serra, Teresa & Al-Sharif, Iqbal, 2018. "The effect of conflict on Palestine, Israel, and Jordan stock markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 258-266.
  43. Al-Ississ Mohamad, 2015. "The Cross-Border Impact of Political Violence," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 21(2), pages 239-272, April.
  44. Dominic Rohner, 2018. "Success Factors for Peace Treaties: A Review of Theory and Evidence," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'économie 18.08, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, Département d’économie.
  45. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Gupta, Rangan & Kollias, Christos & Papadamou, Stephanos, 2017. "Geopolitical risks and the oil-stock nexus over 1899–2016," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 165-173.
  46. Olha Zadorozhna, 2012. "How much do the neighbors pay? Economic costs of international gas disputes," IEFE Working Papers 48, IEFE, Center for Research on Energy and Environmental Economics and Policy, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
  47. Alqahtani, Abdullah & Klein, Tony, 2021. "Oil price changes, uncertainty, and geopolitical risks: On the resilience of GCC countries to global tensions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
  48. Biermann, Marcus & Leromain, Elsa, 2023. "The indirect effect of the Russian-Ukrainian war through international linkages: early evidence from the stock market," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 121332, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  49. Nancy Matos Reyes & Robert McDonald & Jaime Rivera Camino, 2022. "La influencia del conflicto social y la licencia social para operar sobre el valor de la empresa," Estudios Gerenciales, Universidad Icesi, vol. 38(165), pages 406-423, November.
  50. Works, Richard Floyd, 2016. "Econometric modeling of exchange rate determinants by market classification: An empirical analysis of Japan and South Korea using the sticky-price monetary theory," MPRA Paper 76382, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  51. Lo, Gaye-Del & Marcelin, Isaac & Bassène, Théophile & Sène, Babacar, 2022. "The Russo-Ukrainian war and financial markets: the role of dependence on Russian commodities," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
  52. Chen, Stephen, 2017. "Profiting from FDI in conflict zones," Journal of World Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 760-768.
  53. Gupta, Rangan & Kollias, Christos & Papadamou, Stephanos & Wohar, Mark E., 2018. "News implied volatility and the stock-bond nexus: Evidence from historical data for the USA and the UK markets," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 47, pages 76-90.
  54. Cullen S. Hendrix, 2017. "Oil prices and interstate conflict," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 34(6), pages 575-596, November.
  55. Aslam Faheem & Kang Hyoung-Goo & Mughal Khurrum Shahzad & Awan Tahir Mumtaz & Mohmand Yasir Tariq, 2021. "Stock Market Volatility and Terrorism: New Evidence from the Markov Switching Model," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 27(2), pages 263-284, May.
  56. Pasi Heikkurinen & Jukka Mäkinen, 2018. "Synthesising Corporate Responsibility on Organisational and Societal Levels of Analysis: An Integrative Perspective," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 149(3), pages 589-607, May.
  57. Jamal Bouoiyour & Refk Selmi, 2019. "The Changing Geopolitics in the Arab World: Implications of the 2017 Gulf Crisis for Business," Papers 1903.08076, arXiv.org.
  58. Ofir D. Rubin & Rico Ihle, 2017. "Measuring Temporal Dimensions of the Intensity of Violent Political Conflict," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 132(2), pages 621-642, June.
  59. Ramiah, Vikash & Wallace, Damien & Veron, Jose Francisco & Reddy, Krishna & Elliott, Robert, 2019. "The effects of recent terrorist attacks on risk and return in commodity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 13-22.
  60. Dong, Minyi & Chang, Chun-Ping & Gong, Qiang & Chu, Yin, 2019. "Revisiting global economic activity and crude oil prices: A wavelet analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 134-149.
  61. Fratzscher, Marcel & Stracca, Livio, 2009. "Does it pay to have the euro? Italy’s politics and financial markets under the lira and the euro," Working Paper Series 1064, European Central Bank.
  62. Christos Kollias & Stephanos Papadamou & Vangelis Arvanitis, 2013. "Symposium - Does Terrorism Affect the Stock-Bond Covariance? Evidence from European Countries," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 79(4), pages 832-848, April.
  63. Mojanoski Goran & Bucevska Vesna, 2022. "Event study on the reaction of the Balkan stock markets to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine," Croatian Review of Economic, Business and Social Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 8(2), pages 18-27, December.
  64. Christensen, Love & Enlund, Jakob, 2021. "Echoes of Violent Conflict: The Effect of the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict on Hate Crimes in the U.S," Working Papers in Economics 805, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
  65. Hao, Xinlei & Ma, Yong & Pan, Dongtao, 2024. "Geopolitical risk and the predictability of spillovers between exchange, commodity and stock markets," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
  66. Assis, T.P. & Cordeiro, F.F. & Schiavon, L.C., 2023. "How stock market reacts to environmental disasters and judicial decisions: A case study of Mariana’s dam collapse in Brazil," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
  67. Karamti, Chiraz & Jeribi, Ahmed, 2023. "Stock markets from COVID-19 to the Russia–Ukraine crisis: Structural breaks in interactive effects panels," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
  68. Amelie Brune & Thorsten Hens & Marc Rieger & Mei Wang, 2015. "The war puzzle: contradictory effects of international conflicts on stock markets," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 62(1), pages 1-21, March.
  69. Foglia, Matteo & Palomba, Giulio & Tedeschi, Marco, 2023. "Disentangling the geopolitical risk and its effects on commodities. Evidence from a panel of G8 countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
  70. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Aikins Abakah, Emmanuel Joel & Trabelsi, Nader & Wohar, Mark, 2024. "Do shipping freight markets impact commodity markets?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 986-1014.
  71. Liang, Chao & Wang, Lu & Duong, Duy, 2024. "More attention and better volatility forecast accuracy: How does war attention affect stock volatility predictability?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 218(C), pages 1-19.
  72. Avni Önder Hanedar & Hatice Gaye Gencer & Sercan Demiralay & Ismail Altay, 2017. "Between war and peace: The Ottoman economy and foreign exchange trading at the Istanbul bourse," Working Papers 0108, European Historical Economics Society (EHES).
  73. Gong, Xu & Xu, Jun, 2022. "Geopolitical risk and dynamic connectedness between commodity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
  74. Marcus Biermann & Elsa Leromain, 2023. "The indirect effect of the Russian-Ukrainian war through international linkages: early evidence from the stock market," CEP Discussion Papers dp1899, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  75. Santorsola, Marco & Caferra, Rocco & Morone, Andrea, 2022. "The financial repercussions of military escalation," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 603(C).
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  81. Jiang, Wei & Dong, Lingfei & Liu, Xutang & Zou, Liming, 2024. "Volatility spillovers among economic policy uncertainty, energy and carbon markets—The quantile time-frequency perspective," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 307(C).
  82. Alqahtani, Abdullah & Bouri, Elie & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2020. "Predictability of GCC stock returns: The role of geopolitical risk and crude oil returns," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 239-249.
  83. Hang Su & Yong Geng & Xi-Qiang Xia & Quan-Jing Wang, 2022. "Economic Policy Uncertainty, Social Development, Political Regimes and Environmental Quality," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(4), pages 1-15, February.
  84. Rabia Haroon & Zainab Jehan, 2022. "Measuring the impact of violence on macroeconomic instability: evidence from developing countries," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 21(1), pages 3-30, January.
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  86. Akay, Alpaslan & Bargain, Olivier & Elsayed, Ahmed, 2018. "Everybody's a Victim? Global Terror, Well-Being and Political Attitudes," Working Papers in Economics 733, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
  87. Shoham Amir & Rosenboim Mosi & Malul Miki & Saadon Yossi, 2011. "Core and Periphery -- The Dual Effect of Terror," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 17(1), pages 1-15, September.
  88. Martins, António Miguel & Correia, Pedro & Gouveia, Ricardo, 2023. "Russia-Ukraine conflict: The effect on European banks’ stock market returns," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
  89. Hettihewa, Samanthala & Saha, Shrabani & Zhang, Hanxiong, 2018. "Does an aging population influence stock markets? Evidence from New Zealand," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 142-158.
  90. Sohag, Kazi & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Elsayed, Ahmed H. & Mariev, Oleg & Safonova, Yulia, 2022. "Do geopolitical events transmit opportunity or threat to green markets? Decomposed measures of geopolitical risks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
  91. Christos Kollias & Stephanos Papadamou & Vangelis Arvanitis, 2013. "Does Terrorism Affect the Stock‐Bond Covariance? Evidence from European Countries," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 79(4), pages 832-848, April.
  92. Abdelbaki, Hisham, 2013. "The Impact of Arab Spring on Stock Market Performance," MPRA Paper 54814, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  93. Chen, Junyi & Kibriya, Shahriar & Bessler, David & Price, Edwin, 2015. "A Causal Exploration of Conflict Events and Commodity Prices of Sudan," MPRA Paper 62461, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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