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Hawks and Doves: Financial Market Perception of Western Support for Ukraine

Author

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  • Neuenkirch, Matthias

    (University of Trier ; CESifo, Munich)

  • Repko, Maria

    (Centre for Economic Strategy, Kyiv)

  • Weber, Enzo

    (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany ; Univ. Regensburg ; Leibniz Institute for East and Southeast European Studies (IOS))

Abstract

"Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, the West has been intensively discussing its support strategy. Hawkish positions of strengthening Ukraine via armaments, financial resources, and sanctions against Russia compete with dovish views of avoiding further escalation of the military and geopolitical conflict. News from the war became a dominating factor for international politics and the world economy. In this paper, we analyse how international financial markets perceived this news, especially on Western positions. We create a comprehensive data set of news related to the war and measure reactions of five key financial markets. The results show that stronger support for Ukraine had a negative impact in the first weeks of the war. Thus, financial markets seem to have perceived it as a risk of further escalation threatening global economic activity. However, we find the perceptions strongly changed when the Ukrainian position in the war improved. Since that time, a hawkish line was a positive signal for financial markets. The results also confirm that the war and escalation in general had harmful effects on international financial markets." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Suggested Citation

  • Neuenkirch, Matthias & Repko, Maria & Weber, Enzo, 2023. "Hawks and Doves: Financial Market Perception of Western Support for Ukraine," IAB-Discussion Paper 202301, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    • Handle: RePEc:iab:iabdpa:202301
    DOI: 10.48720/IAB.DP.2301
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    Cited by:

    1. Grebe, Moritz & Kandemir, Sinem & Tillmann, Peter, 2023. "Uncertainty about the war in Ukraine: Measurement and effects on the German business cycle," IMFS Working Paper Series 184, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    2. Moritz Grebe & Sinem Kandemir & Peter Tillmann, 2023. "Uncertainty about the War in Ukraine: Measurement and Effects on the German Business Cycle," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202314, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    3. Klose, Jens, 2024. "Empirical effects of sanctions and support measures on stock prices and exchange rates in the Russia–Ukraine war," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    4. Grebe, Moritz & Kandemir, Sinem & Tillmann, Peter, 2024. "Uncertainty about the war in Ukraine: Measurement and effects on the German economy," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 217(C), pages 493-506.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Russland ; Ukraine ; USA ; Westeuropa ; IAB-Open-Access-Publikation ; Auswirkungen ; Finanzmarkt ; Entwicklung ; Flüchtlingsfürsorge ; Handelshemmnis ; internationale Zusammenarbeit ; Konfliktverhalten ; Aktienkurs ; Krieg ; Militär ; öffentliche Ausgaben ; Risikoabschätzung ; Sanktion ; Weltwirtschaft ; Wirtschaftsförderung ; 2022-2022;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War

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