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Hawks and Doves: Financial Market Perception of Western Support for Ukraine

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  • Matthias Neuenkirch
  • Maria Repko
  • Enzo Weber

Abstract

Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, the West has been intensively discussing its support strategy. Hawkish positions of strengthening Ukraine via armaments, financial resources, and sanctions against Russia compete with dovish views of avoiding further escalation of the military and geopolitical conflict. We analyse how international financial markets perceived this news. We create a comprehensive data set of news related to the war and measure reactions of five key financial markets. The results show that stronger support for Ukraine had a positive impact after the first weeks of the war when the Ukrainian position in the war improved, but a negative or at least less positive influence before. Thus, financial markets seem to have perceived support as a risk of further escalation threatening global economic activity in the first phase. However, a hawkish line was a positive signal for financial markets after the change in perceptions.

Suggested Citation

  • Matthias Neuenkirch & Maria Repko & Enzo Weber, 2023. "Hawks and Doves: Financial Market Perception of Western Support for Ukraine," Research Papers in Economics 2023-03, University of Trier, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:trr:wpaper:202303
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    Cited by:

    1. Moritz Grebe & Sinem Kandemir & Peter Tillmann, 2023. "Uncertainty about the War in Ukraine: Measurement and Effects on the German Business Cycle," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202314, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    2. Klose, Jens, 2024. "Empirical effects of sanctions and support measures on stock prices and exchange rates in the Russia–Ukraine war," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    3. Grebe, Moritz & Kandemir, Sinem & Tillmann, Peter, 2023. "Uncertainty about the war in Ukraine: Measurement and effects on the German business cycle," IMFS Working Paper Series 184, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    4. Grebe, Moritz & Kandemir, Sinem & Tillmann, Peter, 2024. "Uncertainty about the war in Ukraine: Measurement and effects on the German economy," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 217(C), pages 493-506.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Conflict; Event Study; Financial Markets; News; Russia; Sanctions; Ukraine;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War

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