IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/aaea13/150961.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The impact of violent political conflict on commodity prices: The Israeli food market

Author

Listed:
  • Rubin, Ofir D.
  • Ihle, Rico
  • Kachel, Yael
  • Goodwin, Barry K.

Abstract

The impact of violent conflict on the state of the economy has been studied extensively since the two recent decades. In most studies the state of the economy is operationalized by stock market indices of the respective countries. In this paper we suggest investigating the impact of violent conflict on the lives of civilians by looking also at food prices. We gathered a unique dataset of daily frequency for this purpose which offers a number of variables quantifying relevant events which occurred between 1997 and 2011 in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. We model domestic Israeli prices of several fresh fruits and vegetables using a GARCH framework and control for the state of the economy, exchange rate effects, international prices, seasonal variation and Muslim holidays. Intensity of the conflict is measured by the incidences of movement restrictions which are implemented due to security reasons and temporarily cut off the otherwise dynamic agricultural trade between Israel and the Palestinian Territories, and daily casualty numbers for both sides of the conflict. Our analysis yields plausible results for the comprehensive impact of the controls as well as of the conflict variables. We find that comprehensive closures imposed on the Palestinian Territories do not show much impact on food price dynamics in Israel. Conversely, while days with many Israeli casualties raise both the mean and the volatility of several prices, the opposite effect is observed in the case of high numbers of fatalities on the Palestinian side.

Suggested Citation

  • Rubin, Ofir D. & Ihle, Rico & Kachel, Yael & Goodwin, Barry K., 2013. "The impact of violent political conflict on commodity prices: The Israeli food market," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 150961, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea13:150961
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.150961
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/150961/files/Rubin_%20Ihle_%20Kachel_%20Goodwin%20-%20The%20Israeli%20Food%20Market.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.150961?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christos Kollias & Stephanos Papadamou & Apostolos Stagiannis, 2010. "Armed Conflicts And Capital Markets: The Case Of The Israeli Military Offensive In The Gaza Strip," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 357-365.
    2. Asaf Zussman & Noam Zussman, 2006. "Assassinations: Evaluating the Effectiveness of an Israeli Counterterrorism Policy Using Stock Market Data," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 20(2), pages 193-206, Spring.
    3. Massimo Guidolin & Eliana La Ferrara, 2010. "The economic effects of violent conflict: Evidence from asset market reactions," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 47(6), pages 671-684, November.
    4. Arin, K. Peren & Ciferri, Davide & Spagnolo, Nicola, 2008. "The price of terror: The effects of terrorism on stock market returns and volatility," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 101(3), pages 164-167, December.
    5. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    6. David Fielding, 2004. "How Does Violent Conflict Affect Investment Location Decisions? Evidence from Israel during the Intifada," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 41(4), pages 465-484, July.
    7. Chesney, Marc & Reshetar, Ganna & Karaman, Mustafa, 2011. "The impact of terrorism on financial markets: An empirical study," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 253-267, February.
    8. Caplan, B., 2002. "How does war shock the economy?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 145-162, April.
    9. Alberto Abadie & Javier Gardeazabal, 2003. "The Economic Costs of Conflict: A Case Study of the Basque Country," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 113-132, March.
    10. Ihle, Rico & Rubin, Ofir D., 2012. "Price Transmission Subject to Security‐based Trade Barriers in the Context of the Israeli‐Palestinian Conflict," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 125392, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    11. Paul de Boer & Marco Missaglia, 2006. "Economic consequences of intifada," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 97-106.
    12. Eldor, Rafi & Melnick, Rafi, 2004. "Financial markets and terrorism," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 367-386, June.
    13. Amihud, Yakov & Wohl, Avi, 2004. "Political news and stock prices: The case of Saddam Hussein contracts," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 1185-1200, May.
    14. Kollias, Christos & Papadamou, Stephanos & Stagiannis, Apostolos, 2011. "Terrorism and capital markets: The effects of the Madrid and London bomb attacks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 532-541, October.
    15. Kachel, Yael & Finkelshtain, Israel, 2010. "A Comparative Analysis of Antitrust Regulations in the Agricultural Sector in Israel, the US and the EU," Journal of Rural Cooperation, Hebrew University, Center for Agricultural Economic Research, vol. 38(1), pages 1-35.
    16. Goffe, William L. & Ferrier, Gary D. & Rogers, John, 1994. "Global optimization of statistical functions with simulated annealing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 65-99.
    17. Bollerslev, Tim, 1987. "A Conditionally Heteroskedastic Time Series Model for Speculative Prices and Rates of Return," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(3), pages 542-547, August.
    18. William A. Masters & Gerald E. Shively, 2008. "Introduction to the special issue on the world food crisis," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(s1), pages 373-374, November.
    19. Teräsvirta, Timo, 2006. "An introduction to univariate GARCH models," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 646, Stockholm School of Economics.
    20. William R. DiPietro & Emmanuel Anoruo & Bansi Sawhney, 2008. "The Effect of the Size of the Military on Stock Market Performance in the United States and the UK," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(1), pages 33-44, February.
    21. Tim Bollerslev, 2008. "Glossary to ARCH (GARCH)," CREATES Research Papers 2008-49, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    22. Asaf Zussman & Noam Zussman & Morten Ørregaard Nielsen, 2008. "Asset Market Perspectives on the Israeli–Palestinian Conflict," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 75(297), pages 84-115, February.
    23. repec:bla:econom:v:70:y:2003:i:277:p:159-186 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. World Bank, 2011. "Coping with Conflict? Poverty and Inclusion in the West Bank and Gaza," World Bank Publications - Reports 2774, The World Bank Group.
    25. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ofir D. Rubin & Rico Ihle, 2017. "Measuring Temporal Dimensions of the Intensity of Violent Political Conflict," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 132(2), pages 621-642, June.
    2. Kollias Christos & Papadamou Stephanos & Psarianos Iacovos, 2014. "Rogue State Behavior and Markets: the Financial Fallout of North Korean Nuclear Tests," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 20(2), pages 267-292, April.
    3. Mnasri, Ayman & Nechi, Salem, 2016. "Impact of terrorist attacks on stock market volatility in emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 184-202.
    4. Kollias, Christos & Kyrtsou, Catherine & Papadamou, Stephanos, 2013. "The effects of terrorism and war on the oil price–stock index relationship," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 743-752.
    5. Ali M. Kutan & Mehmet E. Yaya, 2016. "Armed conflict and financial and economic risk: evidence from Colombia," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 18(2), pages 159-187, August.
    6. Omar, Ayman M.A. & Lambe, Brendan J & Wisniewski, Tomasz Piotr, 2021. "Perceptions of the threat to national security and the stock market," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 186(C), pages 504-522.
    7. Wisniewski, Tomasz Piotr, 2016. "Is there a link between politics and stock returns? A literature survey," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 15-23.
    8. Aslam Faheem & Kang Hyoung-Goo & Mughal Khurrum Shahzad & Awan Tahir Mumtaz & Mohmand Yasir Tariq, 2021. "Stock Market Volatility and Terrorism: New Evidence from the Markov Switching Model," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 27(2), pages 263-284, May.
    9. Balcilar, Mehmet & Bonato, Matteo & Demirer, Riza & Gupta, Rangan, 2018. "Geopolitical risks and stock market dynamics of the BRICS," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 295-306.
    10. Nicholas Apergis & Matteo Bonato & Rangan Gupta & Clement Kyei, 2016. "Does Geopolitical Risks Predict Stock Returns and Volatility of Leading Defense Companies? Evidence from a Nonparametric Approach," Working Papers 201671, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    11. Faheem Aslam & Amir Rafique & Aneel Salman & Hyoung-Goo Kang & Wahbeeah Mohti, 2018. "The Impact Of Terrorism On Financial Markets: Evidence From Asia," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 63(05), pages 1183-1204, December.
    12. Park, Jin Suk & Newaz, Mohammad Khaleq, 2018. "Do terrorist attacks harm financial markets? A meta-analysis of event studies and the determinants of adverse impact," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 227-247.
    13. Imtiaz Arif & Tahir Suleman, 2017. "Terrorism and Stock Market Linkages: An Empirical Study from a Front-line State," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 18(2), pages 365-378, April.
    14. Friedrich Schneider & Tilman Brück & Daniel Meierrieks, 2010. "The Economics of Terrorism and Counter-Terrorism: A Survey (Part II)," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1050, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    15. Anastasios Zopiatis & Christos S. Savva & Neophytos Lambertides & Michael McAleer, 2016. "Tourism stocks in times of crises: An econometric investigation of non-macro factors," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2016-18, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
    16. Bouoiyour, Jamal & Selmi, Refk & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Wohar, Mark E., 2019. "What are the categories of geopolitical risks that could drive oil prices higher? Acts or threats?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    17. Fatma Ben Moussa & Mariem Talbi, 2019. "Stock Market Reaction to Terrorist Attacks and Political Uncertainty: Empirical Evidence from the Tunisian Stock Exchange," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 9(3), pages 48-64.
    18. Corbet, Shaen & Gurdgiev, Constantin & Meegan, Andrew, 2018. "Long-term stock market volatility and the influence of terrorist attacks in Europe," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 118-131.
    19. Nadav Ben Itzhak, 2018. "The Effect of Terrorism on Housing Rental Prices: Evidence from Jerusalem," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2018.08, Bank of Israel.
    20. Halkos, George & Managi, Shunsuke & Zisiadou, Argyro, 2017. "Analyzing the determinants of terrorist attacks and their market reactions," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 57-73.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Demand and Price Analysis; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; International Relations/Trade;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:aaea13:150961. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aaeaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.