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The indirect effect of the Russian-Ukrainian war through international linkages: early evidence from the stock market

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  • Biermann, Marcus
  • Leromain, Elsa

Abstract

This paper investigates how firms' international linkages to Russia and Ukraine affected investors' expectations following the escalation of the Russian-Ukrainian war. For this, we perform an event study around the Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, finding that firms with significant trade activity with Russia experienced a substantial reduction in cumulative returns. The effect on cumulative returns is especially pronounced for firms that are dependent on Russian commodities. The impact on the aggregate stock market performance of third countries was on average 0.8 percentage points. The highest losses were borne by European countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Biermann, Marcus & Leromain, Elsa, 2023. "The indirect effect of the Russian-Ukrainian war through international linkages: early evidence from the stock market," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 121332, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:121332
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    File URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/121332/
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    russia-ukraine war; trade linkages; multinationals; stock market; event study; ukraine;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F23 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Multinational Firms; International Business
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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