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Bayesian Inference in Dynamic Econometric Models

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Cited by:

  1. Bauwens, Luc & Rombouts, Jeroen V.K., 2012. "On marginal likelihood computation in change-point models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(11), pages 3415-3429.
  2. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Christian Julliard, 2008. "Money Illusion and Housing Frenzies," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(1), pages 135-180, January.
  3. Welz, Peter, 2006. "Assessing predetermined expectations in the standard sticky-price model: a Bayesian approach," Working Paper Series 621, European Central Bank.
  4. Del Negro, Marco & Schorfheide, Frank, 2008. "Forming priors for DSGE models (and how it affects the assessment of nominal rigidities)," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(7), pages 1191-1208, October.
  5. Ben S. Bernanke & Jean Boivin & Piotr Eliasz, 2005. "Measuring the Effects of Monetary Policy: A Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(1), pages 387-422.
  6. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Martin Feldkircher & Florian Huber, 2016. "Forecasting with Global Vector Autoregressive Models: a Bayesian Approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(7), pages 1371-1391, November.
  7. Götz, Thomas B. & Hecq, Alain & Smeekes, Stephan, 2016. "Testing for Granger causality in large mixed-frequency VARs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 193(2), pages 418-432.
  8. No, Sung Chul & Salassi, Michael E., 2006. "Dynamic Analysis and Forecasts of Rough Rice Price under Government Price Support Program: An Application of Bayesian VAR," 2006 Annual Meeting, February 5-8, 2006, Orlando, Florida 35279, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
  9. L. Bauwens & J.V.K. Rombouts, 2007. "Bayesian inference for the mixed conditional heteroskedasticity model," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 10(2), pages 408-425, July.
  10. Zhou Xun & Michel Lubrano, 2013. "A Bayesian Subjective Poverty Line, One Dollar a Day Revisited," AMSE Working Papers 1302, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France, revised 05 Feb 2013.
  11. Weber, Henning & Herwartz, Helmut, 2008. "When, how fast and by how much do trade costs change in the euro area?," Discussion Papers 2008/18, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
  12. Carriero, Andrea & Kapetanios, George & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2016. "Structural analysis with Multivariate Autoregressive Index models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 192(2), pages 332-348.
  13. Rombouts, Jeroen V.K. & Stentoft, Lars, 2014. "Bayesian option pricing using mixed normal heteroskedasticity models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 588-605.
  14. John M Maheu & Azam Shamsi Zamenjani, 2021. "Nonparametric Dynamic Conditional Beta," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(4), pages 583-613.
  15. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2008:i:22:p:1-7 is not listed on IDEAS
  16. Lubrano, Michel, 2004. "Modélisation bayésienne non linéaire du taux d’intérêt de court terme américain : l’aide des outils non paramétriques," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 80(2), pages 465-499, Juin-Sept.
  17. Roberto Leon-Gonzalez, "undated". "Data Augmentation in Limited-Dependent Variable Models," Discussion Papers 02/09, Department of Economics, University of York.
  18. De Graeve, Ferre, 2008. "The external finance premium and the macroeconomy: US post-WWII evidence," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(11), pages 3415-3440, November.
  19. Hoogerheide, Lennart F. & Kaashoek, Johan F. & van Dijk, Herman K., 2007. "On the shape of posterior densities and credible sets in instrumental variable regression models with reduced rank: An application of flexible sampling methods using neural networks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 139(1), pages 154-180, July.
  20. Gregor Bäurle, 2013. "Structural Dynamic Factor Analysis Using Prior Information From Macroeconomic Theory," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(2), pages 136-150, April.
  21. Jana Eklund & Sune Karlsson, 2007. "Forecast Combination and Model Averaging Using Predictive Measures," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2-4), pages 329-363.
  22. Kunst, Robert M., 2002. "Decision Maps for Bivariate Time Series with Potential Thrshold Cointegration," Economics Series 121, Institute for Advanced Studies.
  23. George Kapetanios & Haroon Mumtaz & Ibrahim Stevens & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2012. "Assessing the Economy‐wide Effects of Quantitative Easing," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(564), pages 316-347, November.
  24. Jim Malley & Ulrich Woitek, 2011. "Productivity Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations in an Estimated Endogenous Growth Model with Human Capital," CESifo Working Paper Series 3567, CESifo.
  25. Kirstin Hubrich & Timo Teräsvirta, 2013. "Thresholds and Smooth Transitions in Vector Autoregressive Models," CREATES Research Papers 2013-18, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  26. Sugita, Katsuhiro, 2002. "Testing For Cointegration Rank Using Bayes Factors," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 654, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  27. Müller-Plantenberg, Nikolas, 2012. "Long swings in Japan’s current account and in the yen," Working Papers in Economic Theory 2012/08, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid (Spain), Department of Economic Analysis (Economic Theory and Economic History).
  28. Magnus, Jan R. & Powell, Owen & Prüfer, Patricia, 2010. "A comparison of two model averaging techniques with an application to growth empirics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 154(2), pages 139-153, February.
  29. Ardia, David & Hoogerheide, Lennart F., 2010. "Efficient Bayesian estimation and combination of GARCH-type models," MPRA Paper 22919, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  30. Bauwens, L. & Hafner, C.M. & Rombouts, J.V.K., 2007. "Multivariate mixed normal conditional heteroskedasticity," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 3551-3566, April.
  31. Maarten Dossche & Gerdie Everaert, 2005. "Measuring Inflation Persistence: A Structural Time Series Approach," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 459, Society for Computational Economics.
  32. Warne, Anders, 2006. "Bayesian inference in cointegrated VAR models: with applications to the demand for euro area M3," Working Paper Series 692, European Central Bank.
  33. Andrea Silvestrini, 2010. "Testing fiscal sustainability in Poland: a Bayesian analysis of cointegration," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(1), pages 241-274, August.
  34. Echavarría-Soto, Juan José & López, Enrique & Ocampo, Sergio & Rodríguez-Niño, Norberto, 2012. "Choques, instituciones laborales y desempleo en Colombia," Chapters, in: Arango-Thomas, Luis Eduardo & Hamann-Salcedo, Franz Alonso (ed.), El mercado de trabajo en Colombia : hechos, tendencias e instituciones, chapter 18, pages 753-794, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  35. Aldrich, John, 2001. "How likelihood and identification went Bayesian," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 0111, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
  36. Summers, Peter M., 2004. "Bayesian evidence on the structure of unemployment," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 299-306, June.
  37. Paolo Zagaglia, 2011. "Forecasting Long-Term Interest Rates with a Dynamic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area: The Role of the Feedback," Working Paper series 19_11, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  38. LUBRANO, Michel, 1998. "Smooth transition GARCH models: a Bayesian perspective," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 1998066, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  39. Jay Shanken & Ane Tamayo, 2001. "Risk, Mispricing, and Asset Allocation: Conditioning on Dividend Yield," NBER Working Papers 8666, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  40. Balcombe, Kelvin & Bailey, Alastair, 2006. "Bayesian inference of a smooth transition dynamic almost ideal model of food demand in the US," MPRA Paper 17305, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  41. Tino Berger & Lorenzo Pozzi, 2016. "Is there really a Global Business Cycle? A Dynamic Factor Model with Stochastic Factor Selection," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 16-088/VI, Tinbergen Institute.
  42. Jeroen Rombouts & Marno Verbeek, 2009. "Evaluating portfolio Value-at-Risk using semi-parametric GARCH models," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(6), pages 737-745.
  43. Sergio Ocampo & Norberto Rodríguez, 2011. "An Introductory Review of a Structural VAR-X Estimation and Applications," Borradores de Economia 9200, Banco de la Republica.
  44. Márcio Alves Diniz & C.A.B.Pereira & J.M.Stern, 2008. "FBST for Unit Root Problems," Working Papers 08_11, Universidade de São Paulo, Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade de Ribeirão Preto.
  45. Herwartz, Helmut & Weber, Henning, 2010. "The euro's trade effect under cross-sectional heterogeneity and stochastic resistance," Kiel Working Papers 1631, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
  46. Clements, Michael P. & Galvão, Ana Beatriz, 2017. "Model and survey estimates of the term structure of US macroeconomic uncertainty," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 591-604.
  47. Markku Lanne & Arto Luoma & Jani Luoto, 2012. "Bayesian Model Selection And Forecasting In Noncausal Autoregressive Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(5), pages 812-830, August.
  48. Ding Ding & Rahul Anand & Mr. Shanaka J Peiris, 2011. "Towards Inflation Targeting in Sri Lanka," IMF Working Papers 2011/081, International Monetary Fund.
  49. de Pooter, M.D. & Segers, R. & van Dijk, H.K., 2006. "Gibbs sampling in econometric practice," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2006-13, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  50. Allan Dizioli & Jochen M. Schmittmann, 2015. "A Macro-Model Approach to Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting for Vietnam," IMF Working Papers 2015/273, International Monetary Fund.
  51. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2015. "Bayesian VARs: Specification Choices and Forecast Accuracy," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(1), pages 46-73, January.
  52. Olayeni, Olaolu Richard, 2009. "A Bayesian analysis of government expenditure in Nigeria," MPRA Paper 18244, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  53. Hautsch, Nikolaus & Ou, Yangguoyi, 2008. "Discrete-time stochastic volatility models and MCMC-based statistical inference," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2008-063, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
  54. Malin Gardberg & Lorenzo Pozzi, 2022. "Aggregate consumption and wealth in the long run: The impact of financial liberalization," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(1), pages 161-186, January.
  55. António Afonso & Ricardo Sousa, 2011. "The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in Portugal: a Bayesian SVAR analysis," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 10(1), pages 61-82, April.
  56. L. Bauwens & J. V. K. Rombouts, 2007. "Bayesian Clustering of Many Garch Models," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2-4), pages 365-386.
  57. Ossama Mikhail & Curtis J. Eberwein & Jagdish Handa, 2003. "Testing and Estimating Persistence in Canadian Unemployment," Econometrics 0311004, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  58. Luc Bauwens & Michel Lubrano, 2007. "Bayesian Inference in Dynamic Disequilibrium Models: An Application to the Polish Credit Market," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2-4), pages 469-486.
  59. Kelvin Balcombe & Iain Fraser & Abhijit Sharma, 2011. "Bayesian model averaging and identification of structural breaks in time series," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(26), pages 3805-3818.
  60. Charles S. Bos & Ronald J. Mahieu & Herman K. Van Dijk, 2000. "Daily exchange rate behaviour and hedging of currency risk," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(6), pages 671-696.
  61. Marc P. Giannoni & Jean Boivin, 2005. "DSGE Models in a Data-Rich Environment," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 431, Society for Computational Economics.
  62. Laurent, Sébastien & Rombouts, Jeroen V.K. & Violante, Francesco, 2013. "On loss functions and ranking forecasting performances of multivariate volatility models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 173(1), pages 1-10.
  63. Andrea Carriero & Francesco Corsello & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2022. "The global component of inflation volatility," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(4), pages 700-721, June.
  64. Darsinos, T. & Satchell, S.E., 2002. "The Implied Distribution for Stocks of Companies with Warrants and/or Executive Stock Options," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0217, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  65. Charley Xia and William Griffiths, 2012. "Bayesian Unit Root Testing: The Effect Of Choice Of Prior On Test Outcomes," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 1152, The University of Melbourne.
  66. Marek Jarocinski, 2010. "Responses to monetary policy shocks in the east and the west of Europe: a comparison," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(5), pages 833-868.
  67. Cosemans, M. & Frehen, R.G.P. & Schotman, P.C. & Bauer, R.M.M.J., 2009. "Efficient Estimation of Firm-Specific Betas and its Benefits for Asset Pricing Tests and Portfolio Choice," MPRA Paper 23557, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  68. Scharnagl, Michael & Schumacher, Christian, 2007. "Reconsidering the role of monetary indicators for euro area inflation from a Bayesian perspective using group inclusion probabilities," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,09, Deutsche Bundesbank.
  69. Herwartz, Helmut & Weber, Henning, 2013. "The role of cross-sectional heterogeneity for magnitude and timing of the euro's trade effect," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 48-74.
  70. Berger, Tino & Everaert, Gerdie & Pozzi, Lorenzo, 2021. "Testing for international business cycles: A multilevel factor model with stochastic factor selection," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
  71. Sandeep Chandukala & Sylvia Long-Tolbert & Greg Allenby, 2011. "A threshold model for respondent heterogeneity," Marketing Letters, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 133-146, June.
  72. Leon-Gonzalez, Roberto & Scarpa, Riccardo, 2008. "Improving multi-site benefit functions via Bayesian model averaging: A new approach to benefit transfer," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 50-68, July.
  73. Petr Geraskin & Dean Fantazzini, 2013. "Everything you always wanted to know about log-periodic power laws for bubble modeling but were afraid to ask," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(5), pages 366-391, May.
  74. Matteo Manera & Bruno Sitzia, 2005. "Empirical factor demands and flexible functional forms: a bayesian approach," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 57-75.
  75. Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 586-606, June.
  76. Roberto Leon-Gonzalez & Blessings Majoni, 2023. "Exact Likelihood for Inverse Gamma Stochastic Volatility Models," GRIPS Discussion Papers 23-07, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.
  77. Ricardo M. Sousa, 2007. "Wealth Shocks and Risk Aversion," NIPE Working Papers 28/2007, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
  78. T. Berger & G. Everaert, 2006. "Re-examining the Structural and the Persistence Approach to Unemployment," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 06/383, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  79. Tapas Mishra & Bazoumana Ouattara & Mamata Parhi, 2011. "A Note on Shock Persistence in Total Factor Productivity Growth," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(2), pages 1869-1893.
  80. Ant Afonso & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2012. "The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(34), pages 4439-4454, December.
  81. Darsinos, T. & Satchell, S.E., 2001. "Bayesian Forecasting of Options Prices: A Natural Framework for Pooling Historical and Implied Volatiltiy Information," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0116, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  82. Ballester, Laura & López, Jesúa & Pavía, Jose M., 2023. "European systemic credit risk transmission using Bayesian networks," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
  83. Chiara Scotti, 2011. "A Bivariate Model of Federal Reserve and ECB Main Policy Rates," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 7(3), pages 37-78, September.
  84. Andrea Carriero & George Kapetanios & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2010. "Forecasting Government Bond Yields with Large Bayesian VARs," Working Papers 662, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  85. L. Pozzi, 2005. "Income uncertainty and aggregate consumption," Working Paper Research 77, National Bank of Belgium.
  86. Martin Bruns & Michele Piffer, 2021. "Monetary policy shocks over the business cycle: Extending the Smooth Transition framework," University of East Anglia School of Economics Working Paper Series 2021-07, School of Economics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..
  87. Ricardo M. Sousa, 2010. "How do Consumption and Asset Returns React to Wealth Shocks? Evidence from the U.S. and the U.K," NIPE Working Papers 14/2010, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
  88. Joao Ribeiro, 2019. "Inflación de alimentos en Perú: El rol de la política monetaria," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business, vol. 34(2), pages 81-98, October.
  89. Andrea Carriero & Davide Pettenuzzo & Shubhranshu Shekhar, 2024. "Macroeconomic Forecasting with Large Language Models," Papers 2407.00890, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2025.
  90. Giet, Ludovic & Lubrano, Michel, 2008. "A minimum Hellinger distance estimator for stochastic differential equations: An application to statistical inference for continuous time interest rate models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 2945-2965, February.
  91. Demeshev, Boris & Malakhovskaya, Oxana, 2016. "BVAR mapping," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 43, pages 118-141.
  92. O. Mikhail & C. J. Eberwein & J. Handa, 2006. "Estimating persistence in Canadian unemployment: evidence from a Bayesian ARFIMA," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(15), pages 1809-1819.
  93. Zagaglia, Paolo, 2009. "Forecasting with a DSGE Model of the term Structure of Interest Rates: The Role of the Feedback," Research Papers in Economics 2009:14, Stockholm University, Department of Economics.
  94. Rahul Anand & Ding Ding & Mr. Volodymyr Tulin, 2014. "Food Inflation in India: The Role for Monetary Policy," IMF Working Papers 2014/178, International Monetary Fund.
  95. Chiara Scotti, 2006. "A bivariate model of Fed and ECB main policy rates," International Finance Discussion Papers 875, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  96. Warne, Anders & Coenen, Günter & Christoffel, Kai, 2010. "Forecasting with DSGE models," Working Paper Series 1185, European Central Bank.
  97. Villani, Mattias, 2005. "Inference in Vector Autoregressive Models with an Informative Prior on the Steady State," Working Paper Series 181, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  98. Lorenzo Pozzi & Barbara Sadaba, 2017. "Detecting Scapegoat Effects in the Relationship Between Exchange Rates and Macroeconomic Fundamentals," Staff Working Papers 17-22, Bank of Canada.
  99. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2008-063 is not listed on IDEAS
  100. Malin Gardberg & Lorenzo (L.C.G.) Pozzi, 2018. "Consumption and wealth in the long run: an integrated unobserved component approach," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 18-046/VI, Tinbergen Institute, revised 13 Sep 2018.
  101. Pelin Ilbas, 2008. "Estimation of monetary policy preferences in a forward-looking model : a Bayesian approach," Working Paper Research 129, National Bank of Belgium.
  102. Fu, Bowen, 2023. "Measuring the trend real interest rate in a data-rich environment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
  103. Ossama Mikhail, 2005. "What Happens After A Technology Shock? A Bayesian Perspective," Macroeconomics 0510016, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  104. Grace H.Y. Lee & M. Azali, 2009. "A Bayesian Approach to Optimum Currency Areas in East Asia," Monash Economics Working Papers 18-09, Monash University, Department of Economics.
  105. Lennart F. Hoogerheide & Johan F. Kaashoek, 2004. "Functional Approximations to Likelihoods/Posterior Densities: A Neural Network Approach to Efficient Sampling," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 74, Society for Computational Economics.
  106. Luoto, Jani, 2011. "Aggregate infrastructure capital stock and long-run growth: Evidence from Finnish data," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 181-191, March.
  107. Mr. Magnus Saxegaard & Rahul Anand & Mr. Shanaka J Peiris, 2010. "An Estimated Model with Macrofinancial Linkages for India," IMF Working Papers 2010/021, International Monetary Fund.
  108. Luc Bauwens & Jeroen Rombouts, 2004. "Bayesian Clustering Of Similar Multivariate Garch Models," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 370, Econometric Society.
  109. Lin, L. & Ren, R.E. & Sornette, D., 2014. "The volatility-confined LPPL model: A consistent model of ‘explosive’ financial bubbles with mean-reverting residuals," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 210-225.
  110. Mattias Villani, 2009. "Steady-state priors for vector autoregressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(4), pages 630-650.
  111. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin, 2008. "Identifying Business Cycle Turning Points with Sequential Monte Carlo Methods," Working Papers 0815, University of Brescia, Department of Economics.
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