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On marginal likelihood computation in change-point models

Author

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  • BAUWENS, Luc

    (Université catholique de Louvain (UCL). Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE))

  • ROMBOUTS, Jeroen

    (Institute of Applied Economics at HEC Montréal)

Abstract

Change-point models are useful for modeling time series subject to structural breaks. For interpretation and forecasting, it is essential to estimate correctly the number of change points in this class of models. In Bayesian inference, the number of change points is typically chosen by the marginal likelihood criterion, computed by Chib's method. This method requires to select a value in the parameter space at which the computation is done. We explain in detail how to perform Bayesian inference for a change-point dynamic regression model and how to compute its marginal likelihood. Motivated by our results from three empirical illustrations, a simulation study shows that Chib's method is robust with respect to the choice of the parameter value used in the computations, among posterior mean, mode and quartiles. Furthermore, the performance of the Bayesian information criterion, which is based on maximum likelihood estimates, in selecting the correct model is comparable to that of the marginal likelihood.

Suggested Citation

  • BAUWENS, Luc & ROMBOUTS, Jeroen, 2009. "On marginal likelihood computation in change-point models," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2009061, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    • Handle: RePEc:cor:louvco:2009061
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    13. Chib, Siddhartha, 1998. "Estimation and comparison of multiple change-point models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 221-241, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia & Ricco, Giovanni, 2018. "Bayesian Vector Autoregressions," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1159, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    2. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/27od5pb99881folvtfs8s3k16l is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Fiorentini, G. & Planas, C. & Rossi, A., 2012. "The marginal likelihood of dynamic mixture models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(9), pages 2650-2662.
    4. Gebrenegus Ghilagaber & Parfait Munezero, 2020. "Bayesian change-point modelling of the effects of 3-points-for-a-win rule in football," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(2), pages 248-264, January.
    5. Catherine Doz & Laurent Ferrara & Pierre-Alain Pionnier, 2020. "Business cycle dynamics after the Great Recession: An extended Markov-Switching Dynamic Factor Model," OECD Statistics Working Papers 2020/01, OECD Publishing.
    6. Chan, Joshua C.C. & Grant, Angelia L., 2016. "Fast computation of the deviance information criterion for latent variable models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 847-859.
    7. Gründler, Daniel, 2023. "Expectations, structural breaks and the recent surge in inflation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
    8. van den Hout, Ardo & Muniz-Terrera, Graciela & Matthews, Fiona E., 2013. "Change point models for cognitive tests using semi-parametric maximum likelihood," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 684-698.
    9. Soosung Hwang & Alexandre Rubesam, 2015. "The disappearance of momentum," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(7), pages 584-607, May.
    10. Philip Liu & Konstantinos Theodoridis & Haroon Mumtaz & Francesco Zanetti, 2019. "Changing Macroeconomic Dynamics at the Zero Lower Bound," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 391-404, July.
    11. Cross, Jamie & Poon, Aubrey, 2016. "Forecasting structural change and fat-tailed events in Australian macroeconomic variables," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 34-51.
    12. David Hallac & Peter Nystrup & Stephen Boyd, 2019. "Greedy Gaussian segmentation of multivariate time series," Advances in Data Analysis and Classification, Springer;German Classification Society - Gesellschaft für Klassifikation (GfKl);Japanese Classification Society (JCS);Classification and Data Analysis Group of the Italian Statistical Society (CLADAG);International Federation of Classification Societies (IFCS), vol. 13(3), pages 727-751, September.
    13. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/27od5pb99881folvtfs8s3k16l is not listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    BIC; change-point model; Chib's method; marginal likelihood;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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