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A Macro-Model Approach to Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting for Vietnam

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  • Allan Dizioli
  • Jochen M. Schmittmann

Abstract

The paper develops a small New-Keynesian FPAS model for Vietnam. The model closely matches actual data from 2000-2014. We derive an optimal monetary policy rule that minimizes variability of output, inflation, and the exchange rate. Compared to the baseline model, the optimal rule places a larger weight on output stabilization as the intermediate target to achieve inflation stability, while allowing greater exchange rate flexibility. We analyze the dynamics of key macro variables under various shocks including external and domestic demand shocks and a lift-off of U.S. interest rates. We find that the optimal monetary policy rule delivers greater macroeconomic stability for Vietnam under the shock scenarios.

Suggested Citation

  • Allan Dizioli & Jochen M. Schmittmann, 2015. "A Macro-Model Approach to Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting for Vietnam," IMF Working Papers 2015/273, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2015/273
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Ashwin Madhou & Tayushma Sewak & Imad Moosa & Vikash Ramiah & Florian Gerth, 2021. "Towards Full-Fledged Inflation Targeting Monetary Policy Regime in Mauritius," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-18, March.
    2. Phuong V. Nguyen, 2020. "The Vietnamese business cycle in an estimated small open economy New Keynesian DSGE model," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 48(5), pages 1035-1063, October.
    3. Junankar, Pramod N. (Raja), 2019. "Monetary Policy, Growth and Employment in Developing Areas: A Review of the Literature," IZA Discussion Papers 12197, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Van Nguyen, Phuong, 2020. "The Vietnamese business cycle in an estimated small open economy New Keynesian DSGE model," Dynare Working Papers 56, CEPREMAP.

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