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Prospect Theory and Stock Returns: An Empirical Test

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Cited by:

  1. Alexander L. Brown & Taisuke Imai & Ferdinand M. Vieider & Colin F. Camerer, 2024. "Meta-analysis of Empirical Estimates of Loss Aversion," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 62(2), pages 485-516, June.
  2. Eom, Cheoljun & Park, Jong Won, 2023. "Price behavior of small-cap stocks and momentum: A study using principal component momentum," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
  3. Cakici, Nusret & Zaremba, Adam, 2023. "Recency bias and the cross-section of international stock returns," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
  4. Auriol, Emmanuelle & Mesnard, Alice & Perrault, Tiffanie, 2023. "Temporary foreign work permits: Honing the tools to defeat human smuggling," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
  5. Cakici, Nusret & Zaremba, Adam, 2022. "Salience theory and the cross-section of stock returns: International and further evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 689-725.
  6. Mohrschladt, Hannes, 2021. "The ordering of historical returns and the cross-section of subsequent returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
  7. Lee A. Smales & Zhangxin (Frank) Liu & Cameron D. Robertson, 2022. "One session options: Playing the announcement lottery?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(2), pages 192-211, February.
  8. Doron Avramov & Guy Kaplanski & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 2022. "Postfundamentals Price Drift in Capital Markets: A Regression Regularization Perspective," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(10), pages 7658-7681, October.
  9. Arvanitis, Stelios & Scaillet, Olivier & Topaloglou, Nikolas, 2020. "Spanning analysis of stock market anomalies under prospect stochastic dominance," Working Papers unige:134101, University of Geneva, Geneva School of Economics and Management.
  10. Mohammad Enamul Hoque & Soo-Wah Low, 2020. "Industry Risk Factors and Stock Returns of Malaysian Oil and Gas Industry: A New Look with Mean Semi-Variance Asset Pricing Framework," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(10), pages 1-28, October.
  11. Tristan Roger & Wael Bousselmi & Patrick Roger & Marc Willinger, 2018. "The effect of price magnitude on analysts' forecasts: evidence from the lab," Working Papers hal-01954919, HAL.
  12. John Gathergood & David Hirshleifer & David Leake & Hiroaki Sakaguchi & Neil Stewart, 2023. "Naïve Buying Diversification and Narrow Framing by Individual Investors," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 78(3), pages 1705-1741, June.
  13. EOM, Cheoljun & EOM, Yunsung & PARK, Jong Won, 2024. "Intermediate cross-sectional prospect theory value in stock markets: A novel method," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
  14. Bansal, Avijit & Jacob, Joshy, 2022. "Impact of Price Path on Disposition Bias," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
  15. Neszveda, G., 2019. "Essays on behavioral finance," Other publications TiSEM 05059039-5236-42a3-be1b-3, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  16. Cosemans, Mathijs & Frehen, Rik, 2021. "Salience theory and stock prices: Empirical evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 460-483.
  17. Zhang, Manqing & Ma, Yao & Yang, Baochen & Fan, Ying, 2024. "The change in salience and the cross-section of stock returns: Empirical evidence from China A-shares," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
  18. Xiaozhen Jing & Dezhong Xu & Bin Li & Tarlok Singh, 2024. "Does the U.S. extreme indicator matter in stock markets? International evidence," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 10(1), pages 1-27, December.
  19. Joyita Banerji & Kaushik Kundu & Parveen Ahmed Alam, 2023. "The Impact of Behavioral Biases on Individuals’ Financial Choices under Uncertainty: An Empirical Approach," Business Perspectives and Research, , vol. 11(3), pages 401-424, September.
  20. Bansal, Avijit & Jacob, Joshy, 2018. "Impact of Price Path on Disposition Bias," IIMA Working Papers WP 2018-10-01, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department.
  21. Adam Zaremba & Jacob Koby Shemer, 2018. "Price-Based Investment Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-91530-2, December.
  22. Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2021. "Modeling ex-ante risk premia in the oil market," Working Papers hal-03508699, HAL.
  23. Michael Ungeheuer & Martin Weber, 2021. "The Perception of Dependence, Investment Decisions, and Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(2), pages 797-844, April.
  24. Borsboom, Charlotte & Janssen, Dirk-Jan & Strucks, Markus & Zeisberger, Stefan, 2022. "History matters: How short-term price charts hurt investment performance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
  25. Svetlozar Rachev & Frank J. Fabozzi & Boryana Racheva-Iotova & Abootaleb Shirvani, 2017. "Option Pricing with Greed and Fear Factor: The Rational Finance Approach," Papers 1709.08134, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2020.
  26. Lin, Chaonan & Chen, Hong-Yi & Ko, Kuan-Cheng & Yang, Nien-Tzu, 2021. "Time-dependent lottery preference and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 272-294.
  27. Li, Zhiyong & Rao, Xiao, 2023. "Exploring the zoo of predictors for mutual fund performance in China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
  28. Ji Cao & Marc Oliver Rieger & Lei Zhao, 2019. "Safety First, Loss Probability, and the Cross Section of Expected Stock Returns," Working Paper Series 2019-02, University of Trier, Research Group Quantitative Finance and Risk Analysis.
  29. Giannikos, Christos I. & Kakolyris, Andreas & Suen, Tin Shan, 2023. "Prospect theory and a manager's decision to trade a blind principal bid basket," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
  30. Ravi Kashyap, 2019. "Concepts, Components and Collections of Trading Strategies and Market Color," Papers 1910.02144, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2020.
  31. Stephen Bahadar & Muhammad Nadeem & Rashid Zaman, 2023. "Toxic chemical releases and idiosyncratic return volatility: A prospect theory perspective," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 63(2), pages 2109-2143, June.
  32. Nicholas Barberis & Lawrence J. Jin & Baolian Wang, 2021. "Prospect Theory and Stock Market Anomalies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(5), pages 2639-2687, October.
  33. Ao, Zhiming & Ji, Xinru & Liang, Xinxin, 2023. "Can prospect theory explain anomalies in the Chinese stock market?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PB).
  34. Felix Reichenbach & Martin Walther, 2023. "Financial recommendations on Reddit, stock returns and cumulative prospect theory," Digital Finance, Springer, vol. 5(2), pages 421-448, June.
  35. Lee, Deok-Hyeon & Min, Byoung-Kyu & Xiao, Yucaho, 2024. "An empirical evaluation of the salience-based asset pricing model: Evidence from Australia," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
  36. Tao, Ran & Brooks, Chris & Bell, Adrian R., 2020. "When is a MAX not the MAX? How news resolves information uncertainty," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 33-51.
  37. Stephen G Dimmock & Roy Kouwenberg & Olivia S Mitchell & Kim Peijnenburg, 2021. "Household Portfolio Underdiversification and Probability Weighting: Evidence from the Field," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(9), pages 4524-4563.
  38. Wang, Cheng & Han, Jing, 2023. "Prospect theory and mutual fund flows: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
  39. Devdeepta Bose & Henning Cordes & Sven Nolte & Judith Christiane Schneider & Colin Farrell Camerer, 2022. "Decision Weights for Experimental Asset Prices Based on Visual Salience," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(11), pages 5094-5126.
  40. Fang, Yi & Niu, Hui & Lin, Yuen, 2023. "Ex-ante Valuation based on Prospect Theory," MPRA Paper 116386, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  41. Weiqiang Tan & Jian Zhang, 2021. "Good Days, Bad Days: Stock Market Fluctuation and Taxi Tipping Decisions," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(6), pages 3965-3984, June.
  42. Nicholas C. Barberis & Lawrence J. Jin & Baolian Wang, 2020. "Prospect Theory and Stock Market Anomalies," NBER Working Papers 27155, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  43. John R. Graham & Campbell R. Harvey & Manju Puri, 2017. "A Corporate Beauty Contest," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(9), pages 3044-3056, September.
  44. Auriol, Emmanuelle & Mesnard, Alice & Perrault, Tiffanie, 2023. "Weeding out the dealers? The economics of cannabis legalization," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 216(C), pages 62-101.
  45. Auriol, Emmanuelle & Mesnard, Alice & Perrault, Tiffanie, 2019. "Defeating Crime? An Economic Analysis of Cannabis Legalization Policies," CEPR Discussion Papers 13814, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  46. Jiang, Ping & Wang, Xinyi & Yuan, Bozong & Zhao, Lu, 2024. "Do investors prefer multiple small bad news events or a single big one? Evidence from the Chinese stock market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 62(PA).
  47. Jack Clark Francis, 2021. "Reformulating prospect theory to become a von Neumann–Morgenstern theory," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 56(3), pages 965-985, April.
  48. Weber, Martin & Mueller-Dethard, Jan, 2020. "The Portfolio Composition Effect," CEPR Discussion Papers 15012, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  49. Gupta, Nilesh & Mishra, Anil V & Jacob, Joshy, 2022. "Prospect theory preferences and global mutual fund flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
  50. Jun Yuan & Qi Xu & Ying Wang, 2023. "Probability weighting in commodity futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(4), pages 516-548, April.
  51. Chen, Rongxin & Lepori, Gabriele M. & Tai, Chung-Ching & Sung, Ming-Chien, 2022. "Can salience theory explain investor behaviour? Real-world evidence from the cryptocurrency market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
  52. Baars, Maren & Mohrschladt, Hannes, 2024. "Preferences for maximum daily returns," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 220(C), pages 343-353.
  53. Spackman, Michael, 2023. "The social discount rate and the cost of public funds: a search for more consistency and better practice," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 119814, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  54. Ai He & Guofu Zhou, 2023. "Diagnostics for asset pricing models," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 52(4), pages 617-642, December.
  55. Lin, Mei-Chen, 2023. "Analyst coverage and the idiosyncratic skewness effect in the Taiwan stock market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
  56. Chen, Dongxu & Wu, Ke & Zhu, Yifeng, 2022. "Stock return asymmetry in China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
  57. Eom, Cheoljun & Kaizoji, Taisei & Livan, Giacomo & Scalas, Enrico, 2021. "Limitations of portfolio diversification through fat tails of the return Distributions: Some empirical evidence," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
  58. Xindan Li & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam & Xuewei Yang & Wei Jiang, 0. "Winners, Losers, and Regulators in a Derivatives Market Bubble," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 34(1), pages 313-350.
  59. Hu, Shiyang & Xiang, Cheng & Quan, Xiaofeng, 2023. "Salience theory and mutual fund flows: Empirical evidence from China," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
  60. Gong, Pu & Wen, Zhuzhu & Xiong, Xiong & Gong, Cynthia M., 2021. "When do investors gamble in the stock market?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
  61. Yao, Jing & Zheng, Zexin, 2021. "Costly arbitrage and skewness pricing: Evidence from first-day price limit reform in China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
  62. Liu, Chang & Sun, Peng & Zhu, Dongming, 2023. "Lottery preference, short-sale constraint, and the salience effect: Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
  63. Matyska, Branka, 2021. "Salience, systemic risk and spectral risk measures as capital requirements," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
  64. Wang, Baolian, 2019. "The cash conversion cycle spread," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(2), pages 472-497.
  65. Sadiq, Misbah & Yousaf, Sheikh Usman & Anser, Muhammad Khalid & Rashid Khan, Haroon ur & Sriyanto, Sriyanto & Zaman, Khalid & Van Tu, Duong & Anis, Siti Nisrin Mohd, 2023. "The role of debt financing in the relationship between capital structure, firm’s value, and macroeconomic factors: To throw caution to the wind," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 212-223.
  66. Cai, Charlie X. & Zhao, Ran, 2024. "Salience theory and cryptocurrency returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
  67. Tilman H. Drerup & Matthias Wibral & Christian Zimpelmann, 2023. "Skewness expectations and portfolio choice," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 26(1), pages 107-144, March.
  68. Maik Dierkes & Jan Krupski & Sebastian Schroen & Philipp Sibbertsen, 2024. "Volatility-dependent probability weighting and the dynamics of the pricing kernel puzzle," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 1-35, April.
  69. Baars, Maren & Mohrschladt, Hannes, 2021. "An alternative behavioral explanation for the MAX effect," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 868-886.
  70. Wang, Junbo & Wu, Chunchi & Zhong, Xiaoling, 2021. "Prospect theory and stock returns: Evidence from foreign share markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
  71. Gu, Ariel & Yoo, Hong Il, 2021. "Prospect Theory and Mutual Fund Flows," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 201(C).
  72. Wang, Zhiqiang & Su, Bingbai & Coakley, Jerry & Shen, Zhe, 2018. "Prospect theory and IPO returns in China," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 726-751.
  73. B. Douglas Bernheim & Charles Sprenger, 2020. "On the Empirical Validity of Cumulative Prospect Theory: Experimental Evidence of Rank‐Independent Probability Weighting," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 88(4), pages 1363-1409, July.
  74. Bhattacharya, Abhi & Sardashti, Hanieh, 2022. "The differential effect of new product preannouncements in driving institutional and individual investor ownership," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 811-823.
  75. Nolte, Sven & Schneider, Judith C., 2018. "How price path characteristics shape investment behavior," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 33-59.
  76. Sun, Kaisi & Wang, Hui & Zhu, Yifeng, 2023. "Salience theory in price and trading volume: Evidence from China," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 38-61.
  77. Zhang, Xiaoqian & Yu, Mingqiang & Chen, Gaoquan, 2020. "Does mixed-ownership reform improve SOEs' innovation? Evidence from state ownership," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
  78. Lazar, Maya & Levkowitz, Amir & Oren, Amit & Sonsino, Doron, 2017. "A note on receptiveness to loss in structured Investment," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 92-98.
  79. Ali Yekkehkhany & Timothy Murray & Rakesh Nagi, 2021. "Stochastic Superiority Equilibrium in Game Theory," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 18(2), pages 153-168, June.
  80. Doron Sonsino & Yaron Lahav & Yefim Roth, 2022. "Reaching for Returns in Retail Structured Investment," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(1), pages 466-486, January.
  81. Chen, Chun & He, Fangyi & Lin, Lei, 2024. "Anchoring effect, prospect value and stock return," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PA), pages 1539-1556.
  82. do Nascimento Junior, Arnaldo João & Klotzle, Marcelo Cabus & Brandão, Luiz Eduardo T. & Pinto, Antonio Carlos Figueiredo, 2021. "Prospect theory and narrow framing bias: Evidence from emerging markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 90-101.
  83. Alkan, Ulas & Guner, Biliana, 2018. "Preferences for lottery stocks at Borsa Istanbul," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 211-223.
  84. Harris, Richard D. F. & Mazibas, Murat, 2022. "Portfolio optimization with behavioural preferences and investor memory," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 296(1), pages 368-387.
  85. Hu, Zhijun & Sun, Ping-Wen, 2024. "Salience theory, investor sentiment, and commonality in sentiment: Evidence from the Chinese stock market," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
  86. Chan, Kalok & Wang, Baolian & Yang, Zhishu, 2019. "Why investors do not buy cheaper securities: Evidence from a natural experiment," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 59-76.
  87. Arjun Chatrath & Rohan A. Christie‐David & Hong Miao & Sanjay Ramchander, 2019. "Losers and prospectors in the short‐term options market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(6), pages 721-743, June.
  88. Wang, Huijun & Yan, Jinghua & Yu, Jianfeng, 2017. "Reference-dependent preferences and the risk–return trade-off," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(2), pages 395-414.
  89. Liu, Xin, 2021. "Diversification in lottery-like features and portfolio pricing discount: Evidence from closed-end funds," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 1-11.
  90. Rhee, S. Ghon & Wu, Feng (Harry), 2020. "Conditional extreme risk, black swan hedging, and asset prices," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 412-435.
  91. Qingfu Liu & Yiuman Tse & Kaixin Zheng, 2021. "The impact of trading behavioral biases on market liquidity under different volatility levels: Evidence from the Chinese commodity futures market," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 671-692, November.
  92. Zhong, Xiaoling & Wang, Junbo, 2018. "Prospect theory and corporate bond returns: An empirical study," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 25-48.
  93. Piehler, Maximilian, 2020. "Prospect Theory and Stock Returns During Bubbles," Junior Management Science (JUMS), Junior Management Science e. V., vol. 5(3), pages 262-294.
  94. Eom, Cheoljun & Park, Jong Won, 2020. "Effects of the fat-tail distribution on the relationship between prospect theory value and expected return," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
  95. Li An & Huijun Wang & Jian Wang & Jianfeng Yu, 2020. "Lottery-Related Anomalies: The Role of Reference-Dependent Preferences," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(1), pages 473-501, January.
  96. Son, Nguyen Truong & Nguyen, Nhat Minh, 2019. "Prospect theory value and idiosyncratic volatility: Evidence from the Korean stock market," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 113-122.
  97. Cao, Ji & Rieger, Marc Oliver & Zhao, Lei, 2023. "Safety first, loss probability, and the cross section of expected stock returns," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 345-369.
  98. Huang, Shiyang & Liu, Xin & Yin, Chengxi, 2019. "Investor target prices," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 39-57.
  99. Yu, Bin & Shen, Yifan & Jin, Xuejun & Xu, Qi, 2022. "Does prospect theory explain mutual fund performance? Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
  100. Figlioli, Bruno & Lemes, Sirlei & Lima, Fabiano Guasti, 2020. "In search for good news: The relationship between accounting information, bounded rationality and hard-to-value stocks," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).
  101. Caglayan, Mustafa O. & Lawrence, Edward & Reyes-Peña, Robinson, 2023. "Hot potatoes: Underpricing of stocks following extreme negative returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
  102. Ohk, Seungbin & Ju, Biung-Ghi, 2021. "Capitalizing on prospect theory value: The Asian developed stock markets," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
  103. Hollstein, Fabian & Sejdiu, Vulnet, 2023. "Probability distortions, collectivism, and international stock prices," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
  104. Eom, Cheoljun & Eom, Yunsung & Park, Jong Won, 2023. "Left-tail momentum and tail properties of return distributions: A case of Korea," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
  105. Andreas Oehler & Julian Schneider, 2022. "Gambling with lottery stocks?," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 23(6), pages 477-503, October.
  106. Díaz, Antonio & Esparcia, Carlos & Alonso, Daniel & Alonso, Maria-Teresa, 2024. "Portfolio management of ESG-labeled energy companies based on PTV and ESG factors," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
  107. Wang, Chen & Xiong, Xiong & Shen, Dehua, 2022. "Tail risks, firm characteristics, and stock returns," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
  108. Wu, Xiang & Zhang, Bing, 2024. "Retail investors’ escaping from the bottom and clustering at the top of the trend in China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PB), pages 875-904.
  109. LIN, Fengjiao & QIU, Zhigang & ZHENG, Weinan, 2023. "Cranes among chickens: The general-attention‐grabbing effect of daily price limits in China's stock market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
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