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The Perception of Dependence, Investment Decisions, and Stock Prices

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  • MICHAEL UNGEHEUER
  • MARTIN WEBER

Abstract

How do investors perceive dependence between stock returns; and how does their perception of dependence affect investments and stock prices? We show experimentally that investors understand differences in dependence, but not in terms of correlation. Participants invest as if applying a simple counting heuristic for the frequency of comovement. They diversify more when the frequency of comovement is lower even if correlation is higher due to dependence in the tails. Building on our experimental findings, we empirically analyze U.S. stock returns. We identify a robust return premium for stocks with high frequencies of comovement with the market return.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Ungeheuer & Martin Weber, 2021. "The Perception of Dependence, Investment Decisions, and Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(2), pages 797-844, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:76:y:2021:i:2:p:797-844
    DOI: 10.1111/jofi.12993
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    4. Cao, Ji & Rieger, Marc Oliver & Zhao, Lei, 2023. "Safety first, loss probability, and the cross section of expected stock returns," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 345-369.
    5. Weber, Martin & Mueller-Dethard, Jan, 2020. "The Portfolio Composition Effect," CEPR Discussion Papers 15012, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    7. Andries, Marianne & Bianchi, Milo & Huynh, Karen & Pouget, Sébastien, 2024. "Return Predictability, Expectations, and Investment: Experimental Evidence," TSE Working Papers 1561, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    8. Dertwinkel-Kalt, Markus & Ebert, Sebastian & Köster, Mats, 2023. "On correlated lotteries in economic applications," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 215(C), pages 292-306.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior
    • G02 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Finance: Underlying Principles
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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