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Salience theory and the cross-section of stock returns: International and further evidence

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  • Cakici, Nusret
  • Zaremba, Adam

Abstract

Motivated by existing evidence of the salience theory (ST) effect in the United States, we investigate its importance in 49 countries over the past three decades. Initial results suggest a negative relationship between the ST measure and future returns. The underperformance of low ST stocks is the strongest in countries with high idiosyncratic risk. However, the salience effect has three vital limitations. First, a substantial part of the anomaly can be attributed to the short-term return reversal. Second, it is priced primarily among microcaps. Third, the premium is realized predominantly following severe down markets and volatility spikes. Outside of microcaps and extreme market conditions, the salience effect does not exist.

Suggested Citation

  • Cakici, Nusret & Zaremba, Adam, 2022. "Salience theory and the cross-section of stock returns: International and further evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 689-725.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:146:y:2022:i:2:p:689-725
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2021.10.010
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    Cited by:

    1. Cai, Charlie X. & Zhao, Ran, 2024. "Salience theory and cryptocurrency returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    2. Cakici, Nusret & Fieberg, Christian & Metko, Daniel & Zaremba, Adam, 2023. "Machine learning goes global: Cross-sectional return predictability in international stock markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    3. Cakici, Nusret & Zaremba, Adam, 2023. "Recency bias and the cross-section of international stock returns," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    4. Zhang, Manqing & Ma, Yao & Yang, Baochen & Fan, Ying, 2024. "The change in salience and the cross-section of stock returns: Empirical evidence from China A-shares," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    5. Cakici, Nusret & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Będowska-Sójka, Barbara & Zaremba, Adam, 2024. "Machine learning and the cross-section of cryptocurrency returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    6. Hanauer, Matthias X. & Jansen, Maarten & Swinkels, Laurens & Zhou, Weili, 2024. "Factor models for Chinese A-shares," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    7. Long, Huaigang & Chiah, Mardy & Cakici, Nusret & Zaremba, Adam & Bilgin, Mehmet Huseyin, 2024. "ESG investing in good and bad times: An international study," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    8. Nusret Cakici & Christian Fieberg & Daniel Metko & Adam Zaremba, 2024. "Do Anomalies Really Predict Market Returns? New Data and New Evidence," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 28(1), pages 1-44.
    9. Hollstein, Fabian & Sejdiu, Vulnet, 2023. "Probability distortions, collectivism, and international stock prices," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    10. Hu, Shiyang & Xiang, Cheng & Quan, Xiaofeng, 2023. "Salience theory and mutual fund flows: Empirical evidence from China," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    11. Liu, Chang & Sun, Peng & Zhu, Dongming, 2023. "Lottery preference, short-sale constraint, and the salience effect: Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Salience theory; Asset pricing; Return predictability; Equity anomalies; International markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D03 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Behavioral Microeconomics: Underlying Principles
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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