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The Existence of Futures Markets, Noisy Rational Expectations and Informational Externalities

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Cited by:

  1. Habib, Michel A. & Johnsen, D. Bruce & Naik, Narayan Y., 1997. "Spinoffs and Information," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 153-176, April.
  2. Noussair, C.N. & Tucker, S. & Xu, Yilong, 2014. "A Future Market Reduces Bubbles but Allows Greater Profit for More Sophisticated Traders," Other publications TiSEM 43ded173-9eee-48a4-8a15-6, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  3. Jane Black & Ian Tonks, 2000. "Time series volatility of commodity futures prices," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 127-144, February.
  4. Aleh Tsyvinski & Arijit Mukherji & Christian Hellwig, 2006. "Self-Fulfilling Currency Crises: The Role of Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(5), pages 1769-1787, December.
  5. McNulty, Mark S., 1985. "Information usage in the formation of price expectations: theory and econometric tests," ISU General Staff Papers 1985010108000013085, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  6. A. Corcos & J-P Eckmann & A. Malaspinas & Y. Malevergne & D. Sornette, 2002. "Imitation and contrarian behaviour: hyperbolic bubbles, crashes and chaos," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(4), pages 264-281.
  7. Grossman, Sanford J & Weiss, Laurence, 1982. "Heterogeneous Information and the Theory of the Business Cycle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(4), pages 699-727, August.
  8. Paugam, Luc, 2011. "Valorisation et reporting du goodwill : enjeux théoriques et empiriques," Economics Thesis from University Paris Dauphine, Paris Dauphine University, number 123456789/8007 edited by Casta, Jean-François.
  9. Garcia, René, 1986. "La théorie économique de l’information : exposé synthétique de la littérature," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 62(1), pages 88-109, mars.
  10. Dye, Ronald A., 2001. "An evaluation of "essays on disclosure" and the disclosure literature in accounting," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1-3), pages 181-235, December.
  11. Jangkoo Kang & Kyung Yoon Kwon, 2020. "Can commodity futures risk factors predict economic growth?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(12), pages 1825-1860, December.
  12. Frank Bohn, 2018. "Political cycles: Beyond rational expectations," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(10), pages 1-23, October.
  13. Wen, Xiaoqian & Xie, Yuxin & Pantelous, Athanasios A., 2022. "Extreme price co-movement of commodity futures and industrial production growth: An empirical evaluation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
  14. Bhattacharya, Utpal & Weller, Paul, 1997. "The advantage to hiding one's hand: Speculation and central bank intervention in the foreign exchange market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 251-277, July.
  15. Prasenjit Chakrabarti & Kiran Kumar Kotha, 2017. "Options Order Flow, Volatility Demand and Variance Risk Premium," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 21(2), pages 49-90, June.
  16. Doina Chichernea & Kershen Huang & Alex Petkevich, 2019. "Does maturity matter? The case of treasury futures volume," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(10), pages 1301-1321, October.
  17. Andreas Park, 2010. "Experiential Learning of the Efficient Market Hypothesis: Two Trading Games," The Journal of Economic Education, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(4), pages 353-369, September.
  18. Anne Corcos & Jean-Pierre Eckmann & A. Malaspinas, 2022. "Self-Referred Decision Rules and Chaos," Working Papers hal-03833847, HAL.
  19. Schwert, G. William, 1996. "Markup pricing in mergers and acquisitions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 153-192, June.
  20. Detemple, Jerome B., 2002. "Asset pricing in an intertemporal partially-revealing rational expectations equilibrium," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1-2), pages 219-248, September.
  21. Roberto Monte & Barbara Trivellato, 2009. "An equilibrium model of insider trading in continuous time," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 32(2), pages 83-128, November.
  22. Mehrdad Vahabi, 1999. "From Walrasian General Equilibrium to Incomplete Contracts: Making Sense of Institutions," Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques j99008, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1).
  23. Romer, David, 1993. "Rational Asset-Price Movements without News," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1112-1130, December.
  24. Chesney, Marc & Crameri, Remo & Mancini, Loriano, 2015. "Detecting abnormal trading activities in option markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 263-275.
  25. Bossaerts, Peter & Suzuki, Shinsuke & O’Doherty, John P., 2019. "Perception of intentionality in investor attitudes towards financial risks," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 189-197.
  26. Bohl, Martin T. & Siklos, Pierre L. & Stefan, Martin & Wellenreuther, Claudia, 2020. "Price discovery in agricultural commodity markets: Do speculators contribute?," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 18(C).
  27. Iván Werning & George-Marios Angeletos, 2006. "Crises and Prices: Information Aggregation, Multiplicity, and Volatility," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(5), pages 1720-1736, December.
  28. Noussair, Charles N. & Tucker, Steven & Xu, Yilong, 2016. "Futures markets, cognitive ability, and mispricing in experimental asset markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 166-179.
  29. Pietra, Tito & Siconolfi, Paolo, 1997. "Extrinsic Uncertainty and the Informational Role of Prices," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 154-180, November.
  30. Hellwig, Martin F., 2005. "Nonlinear incentive provision in Walrasian markets: a Cournot convergence approach," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 120(1), pages 1-38, January.
  31. Marcelo Pinheiro, 2005. "Informational asymmetries and a multiplier effect on price correlation and trading," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 1(4), pages 395-421, October.
  32. Catherine Rouzaud, 1983. "Anticipations rationnelles et information révélée par les prix : une introduction," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 34(6), pages 1116-1144.
  33. Pflugfelder, R., 1991. "Der Beitrag von Warenterminbörsen zur Informationsverbesserung und Risikoabsicherung bei Agrarprodukten," Proceedings “Schriften der Gesellschaft für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften des Landbaues e.V.”, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA), vol. 27.
  34. Reto Cueni & Bruno S. Frey, 2014. "Forecasts and Reactivity," CREMA Working Paper Series 2014-10, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).
  35. Juan Dubra & Helios Herrera, 2002. "Market Participation, Information and Volatility," Working Papers 0206, Centro de Investigacion Economica, ITAM.
  36. Hong, Harrison & Yogo, Motohiro, 2012. "What does futures market interest tell us about the macroeconomy and asset prices?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(3), pages 473-490.
  37. Jean-Pierre Zigrand, 2001. "Rational Limits to Arbitrage," FMG Discussion Papers dp392, Financial Markets Group.
  38. Glebkin, Sergei & Kuong, John Chi-Fong, 2023. "When large traders create noise," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(2).
  39. C. Yiu & S. Wong & K. Chau, 2009. "Transaction Volume and Price Dispersion in the Presale and Spot Real Estate Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 38(3), pages 241-253, April.
  40. Heifetz, Aviad & Polemarchakis, Heracles M., 1998. "Partial Revelation with Rational Expectations," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 171-181, May.
  41. Elena Esposito, 2011. "The Future of Futures," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 13975.
  42. Pies, Ingo & Will, Matthias Georg, 2013. "Finanzspekulation mit Agrarrohstoffen: Analyse und Bewertung aus wirtschaftsethischer Sicht," Discussion Papers 2013-24, Martin Luther University of Halle-Wittenberg, Chair of Economic Ethics.
  43. Zigrand, Jean-Pierre, 2001. "Rational limits to arbitrage," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 25068, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  44. Dow James & Gorton Gary, 1995. "Profitable Informed Trading in a Simple General Equilibrium Model of Asset Pricing," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 327-369, December.
  45. James Dow & Gary Gorton, 2006. "Noise Traders," NBER Working Papers 12256, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  46. Brice Corgnet & Mark DeSantis & David Porter, 2015. "Revisiting Information Aggregation in Asset Markets: Reflective Learning & Market Efficiency," Working Papers 15-15, Chapman University, Economic Science Institute.
  47. Ron Bird & Lorenzo Casavecchia & Paolo Pellizzari & Paul Woolley, 2011. "The impact on the pricing process of costly active management and performance chasing clients," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 6(1), pages 61-82, May.
  48. Hodgson, Allan & Masih, A. Mansur M. & Masih, Rumi, 2006. "Futures trading volume as a determinant of prices in different momentum phases," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 68-85.
  49. Bohl, Martin T. & Goodfellow, Christiane & Bialkowski, Jedrzej, 2010. "Individual investors surpass their reputation: Trading behaviour on the Polish futures market," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 480-492, December.
  50. Bernard Walliser, 1982. "Equilibres et anticipations," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 33(4), pages 594-638.
  51. Christian Hellwig, 2004. "Self-Fulfilling Currency Crises: The Role of Interest Rates (A.E.R., December 2006)," UCLA Economics Online Papers 338, UCLA Department of Economics.
  52. Black, Jane & Tonks, Ian, 1999. "Time series of commodity futures prices," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 119117, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  53. Rausser, Gordon C. & Just, Richard E., 1979. "Agricultural commodity price forecasting accuracy: futures markets versus commercial econometric models," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt6k44c5zv, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
  54. Dennis W. Carlton, 1982. "The Disruptive Effect of Inflation on the Organization of Markets," NBER Chapters, in: Inflation: Causes and Effects, pages 139-152, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  55. Schonkwiler, J. Scott, 1982. "Rational Forecasts And Livestock Futures Performance," 1982 Annual Meeting, August 1-4, Logan, Utah 279186, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  56. Frieden, B. Roy & Hawkins, Raymond J., 2010. "Asymmetric information and economics," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(2), pages 287-295.
  57. Smith, James L. & Thompson, Rex, 2012. "The Informational Role of Spot Prices and Inventories," RFF Working Paper Series dp-12-45, Resources for the Future.
  58. Robert S. Gibbons & Richard T. Holden & Michael L. Powell, 2010. "Rational-Expectations Equilibrium in Intermediate Good Markets," NBER Working Papers 15783, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  59. Shonkwiler, John Scott & Hinckley, Suzanne, 1985. "A Generalized Supply Response/Factor Demand Model And Its Application To The Feeder Cattle Market," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 10(2), pages 1-9, December.
  60. Alexander Zimper, 2017. "Rationalizable Information Equilibria," Working Papers 201745, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  61. Grossman, Sanford J, 1988. "An Analysis of the Implications for Stock and Futures Price Volatility of Program Trading and Dynamic Hedging Strategies," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 61(3), pages 275-298, July.
  62. Mark D. Griffiths & Drew B. Winters, 1996. "The Relation Between The Federal Funds Cash And Futures Markets," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 359-376, September.
  63. Frank Bohn, 2019. "Political budget cycles, incumbency advantage, and propaganda," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 43-70, March.
  64. Pietra, Tito & Siconolfi, Paolo, 2008. "Trade and revelation of information," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 132-164, January.
  65. Agnes Bialecki & Eleonore Haguet & Gabriel Turinici, 2014. "Existence of an Equilibrium for Lower Semicontinuous Information Acquisition Functions," Post-Print hal-00723189, HAL.
  66. Skully, David W., 1999. "The Economics Of Trq Administration," Working Papers 14584, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
  67. George Karathanassis & Vasilios Sogiakas, 2010. "Spill over effects of futures contracts initiation on the cash market: a regime shift approach," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 34(1), pages 95-143, January.
  68. Haase, Marco & Seiler Zimmermann, Yvonne & Zimmermann, Heinz, 2016. "The impact of speculation on commodity futures markets – A review of the findings of 100 empirical studies," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 1-15.
  69. Alex Frino & Elvis Jarnecic & Hui Zheng, 2010. "Activity in futures: does underlying market size relate to futures trading volume?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 34(3), pages 313-325, April.
  70. Itay Goldstein & Liyan Yang, 2022. "Commodity Financialization and Information Transmission," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(5), pages 2613-2667, October.
  71. Vanessa Behrmann & Lars Hornuf & Daniel Vrankar & Jochen Zimmermann, 2021. "The Deregulation of Quarterly Reporting and Its Effects on Information Asymmetry and Firm Value," CESifo Working Paper Series 9344, CESifo.
  72. Jeon, Heung-Jae, 2023. "CEO overconfidence: A dual-detriment to investment-price sensitivity via market negligence and reduced informed trading," Journal of Contemporary Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3).
  73. Emanuela Sciubba, 2005. "Asymmetric information and survival in financial markets," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 25(2), pages 353-379, February.
  74. Nikolas Michael & Mihai Cucuringu & Sam Howison, 2022. "Option Volume Imbalance as a predictor for equity market returns," Papers 2201.09319, arXiv.org.
  75. Will, Matthias Georg, 2012. "Eine kurze Ideengeschichte der Kapitalmarkttheorie: Fundamentaldatenanalyse, Effizienzmarkthypothese und Behavioral Finance," Discussion Papers 2012-4, Martin Luther University of Halle-Wittenberg, Chair of Economic Ethics.
  76. Chenchen Li & Chongfeng Wu & Chunyang Zhou, 2021. "Forecasting equity returns: The role of commodity futures along the supply chain," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(1), pages 46-71, January.
  77. Sumit Saurav & Sobhesh Kumar Agarwalla & Jayanth R. Varma, 2024. "Role of derivatives market in attenuating underreaction to left‐tail risk," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(3), pages 484-517, March.
  78. Kai Liu & Atsushi Koike & Yueying Mu, 2020. "Price Risks and the Lead-Lag Relationship between the Futures and Spot Prices of Soybean, Wheat and Corn," Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 8(1), pages 76-88, March.
  79. McNulty, Mark S. & Huffman, Wallace E., 1996. "Market equilibria with endogenous, hierarchical information," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 607-626, April.
  80. Vignola, Anthony & Dale, Charles & Federal Reserve System, Federal Reserve Staffs, 1979. "Treasury/Federal Reserve Study of Treasury Futures Markets Volume II: A Study by the Staffs of the U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve System," MPRA Paper 58897, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  81. Sogiakas, Vasilios & Karathanassis, George, 2015. "Informational efficiency and spurious spillover effects between spot and derivatives markets," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 46-72.
  82. Jordi Caballe, 1991. "Expectativas racionales, competencia perfecta y comportamiento estratégico en los mercados financieros," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 15(1), pages 3-34, January.
  83. Colin A. Carter & Gordon C. Rausser & Aaron Smith, 2011. "Commodity Booms and Busts," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 87-118, October.
  84. Kaplanski, Guy & Levy, Haim, 2015. "Trading breaks and asymmetric information: The option markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 390-404.
  85. Bullock, David William, 1989. "Options and market information: a mean-variance portfolio approach," ISU General Staff Papers 1989010108000010107, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  86. Ardalan, Kavous, 1998. "Financial markets with asymmetric information: An expository review of seminal models," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 23-51.
  87. Dow, James & Rahi, Rohit, 1998. "Informed trading, investment, and welfare," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 119147, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  88. Salm, Christian A. & Schuppli, Michael, 2010. "Positive feedback trading in stock index futures: International evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 313-322, December.
  89. Lyons, Richard K., 1997. "A simultaneous trade model of the foreign exchange hot potato," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3-4), pages 275-298, May.
  90. Hazard, Suzanne & Shonkwiler, J. Scott, 1984. "The Use of Expectations In Agricultural Supply Response," 1984 Annual Meeting, August 5-8, Ithaca, New York 278895, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
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