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The Informational Role of Spot Prices and Inventories

Author

Listed:
  • Smith, James L.

    (Resources for the Future)

  • Thompson, Rex

Abstract

We examine the role that spot markets and physical inventories play in revealing to uninformed traders the expectations of informed traders. Although many papers investigate potential mechanisms by which futures markets may disseminate such information, the role of spot markets has not been examined in comparable detail. Because the incentive for speculative trading in futures contracts stems from the failure of spot markets to eliminate differences in beliefs regarding future market conditions, the scope for speculative trading in the futures market is therefore determined, but also limited, by the extent to which spot market transactions disseminate private information. Using a rational expectations approach, we show that equilibrium differences in beliefs are determined by specific characteristics of the underlying commodity, including storage costs, the amplitude of unexpected demand and supply shocks, the accuracy of information acquired by informed investors, the numbers of informed and uninformed investors, and the elasticity of demand and supply.

Suggested Citation

  • Smith, James L. & Thompson, Rex, 2012. "The Informational Role of Spot Prices and Inventories," RFF Working Paper Series dp-12-45, Resources for the Future.
    • Handle: RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-12-45
    as

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    File URL: http://www.rff.org/RFF/documents/RFF-DP-12-45.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tirole, Jean, 1982. "On the Possibility of Speculation under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1163-1181, September.
    2. Harold Hotelling, 1931. "The Economics of Exhaustible Resources," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39(2), pages 137-137.
    3. Sanford J. Grossman, 1977. "The Existence of Futures Markets, Noisy Rational Expectations and Informational Externalities," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 44(3), pages 431-449.
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    Cited by:

    1. Lutz Kilian, 2014. "Oil Price Shocks: Causes and Consequences," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 6(1), pages 133-154, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    futures trading; speculation; inventories; private information;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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