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Option Volume Imbalance as a predictor for equity market returns

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  • Nikolas Michael
  • Mihai Cucuringu
  • Sam Howison

Abstract

We investigate the use of the normalized imbalance between option volumes corresponding to positive and negative market views, as a predictor for directional price movements in the spot market. Via a nonlinear analysis, and using a decomposition of aggregated volumes into five distinct market participant classes, we find strong signs of predictability of excess market overnight returns. The strongest signals come from Market-Maker volumes. Among other findings, we demonstrate that most of the predictability stems from high-implied-volatility option contracts, and that the informational content of put option volumes is greater than that of call options.

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  • Nikolas Michael & Mihai Cucuringu & Sam Howison, 2022. "Option Volume Imbalance as a predictor for equity market returns," Papers 2201.09319, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2201.09319
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Nikolas Michael & Mihai Cucuringu & Sam Howison, 2024. "A GCN-LSTM Approach for ES-mini and VX Futures Forecasting," Papers 2408.05659, arXiv.org.

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