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A nonparametric investigation of duration dependence in the American business cycle

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Cited by:

  1. Diebold, Francis X & Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1992. "Have Postwar Economic Fluctuations Been Stabilized?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 993-1005, September.
  2. Moreno Cuartas, Blanca & López Menéndez, Ana Jesús, 2007. "Las Opiniones Empresariales Como Predictores De Los Puntos De Giro Del Ciclo Industrial/Forescasting Turning Points of the Industrial Cycle from Business Expectation Surveys," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 25, pages 511-528, Abril.
  3. Hillier, Brian & Rougier, Jonathan, 1999. "Real Business Cycles, Investment Finance, and Multiple Equilibria," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 100-122, May.
  4. Congressional Budget Office, 2022. "A Markov-Switching Model of the Unemployment Rate: Working Paper 2022-05," Working Papers 57582, Congressional Budget Office.
  5. Gabe de Bondt & Philip Vermeulen, 2021. "Business cycle duration dependence and foreign recessions," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 68(1), pages 1-19, February.
  6. Moolman, Elna, 2004. "A Markov switching regime model of the South African business cycle," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 631-646, July.
  7. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose & Marco E. Terrones, 2011. "Financial Cycles: What? How? When?," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 7(1), pages 303-344.
  8. Evan F. Koenig & Kenneth M. Emery, 1994. "Why The Composite Index Of Leading Indicators Does Not Lead," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 12(1), pages 52-66, January.
  9. Rose Cunningham & Ilan Kolet, 2007. "Housing Market Cycles and Duration Dependence in the United States and Canada," Staff Working Papers 07-2, Bank of Canada.
  10. Fernando H.P.S Mendes & João Frois Caldeira & Guilherme Valle Moura, 2019. "Duration-dependent Markov-switching model: an empirical study for the Brazilian business cycle," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 39(1), pages 676-685.
  11. João Victor Issler & Hilton Hostalacio Notini & Claudia Fontoura Rodrigues, 2013. "Constructing coincident and leading indices of economic activity for the Brazilian economy," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2012(2), pages 43-65.
  12. Ángel Guillén & Gabriel Rodríguez, 2014. "Trend-cycle decomposition for Peruvian GDP: application of an alternative method," Latin American Economic Review, Springer;Centro de Investigaciòn y Docencia Económica (CIDE), vol. 23(1), pages 1-44, December.
  13. Crentsil, Christian & Gschwandtner, Adelina & Wahhaj, Zaki, 2020. "The effects of risk and ambiguity aversion on technology adoption: Evidence from aquaculture in Ghana," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 46-68.
  14. Yongmiao Hong & Yoon-Jin Lee, 2007. "Detecting Misspecifications in Autoregressive Conditional Duration Models," CAEPR Working Papers 2007-019, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.
  15. Nuri Yildirim, 2015. "A Survival Analysis of the Contraction Phases of Business Cycles in Industrial Countries," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 62(5), pages 557-579, December.
  16. Giner, Javier & Zakamulin, Valeriy, 2023. "A regime-switching model of stock returns with momentum and mean reversion," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
  17. Akdi, Yilmaz & Varlik, Serdar & Berument, M. Hakan, 2020. "Duration of Global Financial Cycles," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 549(C).
  18. Vitor Castro & Boris Fisera, 2022. "Determinants of the Duration of Economic Recoveries: The Role of ´Too Much Finance´," Working Papers IES 2022/33, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Dec 2022.
  19. Cochran, Steven J. & DeFina, Robert H., 1996. "Predictability in real exchange rates: Evidence from parametric hazard models," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 125-147.
  20. Travis J. Berge & Damjan Pfajfar, 2019. "Duration Dependence, Monetary Policy Asymmetries, and the Business Cycle," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-020, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  21. Ricardo Hausmann & Rodrigo Wagner & Francisco Rodriguez, 2006. "Growth Collapses," CID Working Papers 136, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
  22. Hunt, Julien & Devolder, Pierre, 2011. "Semi-Markov regime switching interest rate models and minimal entropy measure," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(21), pages 3767-3781.
  23. Mototsugu Shintani & Oliver Linton, 2003. "Is There Chaos in the World Economy? A Nonparametric Test Using Consistent Standard Errors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(1), pages 331-357, February.
  24. Cláudio Tadeu Cristino & Piotr Żebrowski & Matthias Wildemeersch, 2020. "Assessing the time intervals between economic recessions," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(5), pages 1-20, May.
  25. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2020. "Disasters Everywhere: The Costs of Business Cycles Reconsidered," Staff Reports 925, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  26. Diebold, Francis X & Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1996. "Measuring Business Cycles: A Modern Perspective," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 67-77, February.
  27. Rudebusch, Glenn D., 1995. "Federal Reserve interest rate targeting, rational expectations, and the term structure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 245-274, April.
  28. Tobias F. Rötheli, 2018. "Should business rely on business cycle forecasting?," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 26(1), pages 121-133, March.
  29. Cashin, Paul & McDermott, C. John & Scott, Alasdair, 2002. "Booms and slumps in world commodity prices," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 277-296, October.
  30. Anders Rygh Swensen, 1997. "Change in Regime and Markov Models," Discussion Papers 204, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
  31. Lunde A. & Timmermann A., 2004. "Duration Dependence in Stock Prices: An Analysis of Bull and Bear Markets," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 253-273, July.
  32. Ramón Cobo-Reyes & Gabriel Pérez Quirós, 2005. "The effect of oil price on industrial production and on stock returns," ThE Papers 05/18, Department of Economic Theory and Economic History of the University of Granada..
  33. Castro, Vítor, 2010. "The duration of economic expansions and recessions: More than duration dependence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 347-365, March.
  34. Viv B. Hall & C. John McDermott, 2007. "Regional business cycles in New Zealand: Do they exist? What might drive them?," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 86(2), pages 167-191, June.
  35. Klein, Michael W, 1996. "Timing Is All: Elections and the Duration of United States Business Cycles," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(1), pages 84-101, February.
  36. Kiani, Khurshid M., 2016. "On business cycle fluctuations in USA macroeconomic time series," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 179-186.
  37. Layton, Allan P. & Smith, Daniel R., 2007. "Business cycle dynamics with duration dependence and leading indicators," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 855-875, December.
  38. Stephen Broadberry & Jagjit S. Chadha & Jason Lennard & Ryland Thomas, 2023. "Dating business cycles in the United Kingdom, 1700–2010," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 76(4), pages 1141-1162, November.
  39. Van den Berg, Gerard J., 2001. "Duration models: specification, identification and multiple durations," Handbook of Econometrics, in: J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 55, pages 3381-3460, Elsevier.
  40. Ghysels, E., 1992. "Charistmas, Spring and the Dawning of Economic Recovery," Cahiers de recherche 9215, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  41. Geert Bekaert & Alexander Popov, 2019. "On the Link Between the Volatility and Skewness of Growth," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 67(4), pages 746-790, December.
  42. Abderrezak, Ali, 1998. "On the Duration of Growth Cycles: An International Study," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 343-355.
  43. Adrian pagan & Don Harding, 2006. "The Econometric Analysis of Constructed Binary Time Series. Working paper #1," NCER Working Paper Series 1, National Centre for Econometric Research.
  44. C John McDermott & Alasdair Scott, 1999. "Concordance in business cycles," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G99/7, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  45. Timothy Cogley, 1997. "Evaluating non-structural measures of the business cycle," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 3-21.
  46. Corrado Di Guilmi & Edoardo Gaffeo & Mauro Gallegati & Antonio Palestrini, 2004. "International evidence on business cycle magnitude dependence," Papers cond-mat/0401495, arXiv.org.
  47. Xiao, Wei, 2022. "Understanding probabilistic expectations – a behavioral approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
  48. Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 2006. "The Econometric Analysis of Constructed Binary Time Series," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 963, The University of Melbourne.
  49. Terence Mills, 2001. "Business cycle asymmetry and duration dependence: An international perspective," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(6), pages 713-724.
  50. Ghysels, Eric, 1997. "On seasonality and business cycle durations: A nonparametric investigation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 269-290, August.
  51. Kaihua Deng & Dun Jia, 2018. "Backtesting Stress Tests: A Guide for M2 Forward Guidance," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 19(2), pages 443-471, November.
  52. Khurshid Kiani, 2005. "Detecting Business Cycle Asymmetries Using Artificial Neural Networks and Time Series Models," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 26(1), pages 65-89, August.
  53. Beaudry, Paul & Portier, Franck, 2019. "Duration dependence in US expansions: A re-examination of the evidence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 1-1.
  54. Vitor Castro, 2013. "The duration of business cycle expansions and contractions: are there change-points in duration dependence?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 511-544, April.
  55. Matteo M. Pelagatti, 2005. "Time Series Modeling with Duration Dependent Markov-Switching Vector Autoregressions: MCMC Inference, Software and Applications," Econometrics 0503008, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  56. Maurizio Bovi, 2003. "Nonparametric Analysis Of The International Business Cycles," ISAE Working Papers 37, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).
  57. Engel, J. & Haugh, D. & Pagan, A., 2005. "Some methods for assessing the need for non-linear models in business cycle analysis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 651-662.
  58. Lopez Buenache, German & Borsi, Mihály Tamás & Rosa-García, Alfonso, 2020. "Credit cycles and labor market slacks: predictive evidence from Markov-switching models," MPRA Paper 100362, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  59. du Plessis, S. A., 2004. "Stretching the South African business cycle," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 685-701, July.
  60. Vitor Castro, 2015. "The Portuguese business cycle: chronology and duration dependence," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(1), pages 325-342, August.
  61. Alberto Plazzi & Walter Torous & Rossen Valkanov, 2008. "The Cross‐Sectional Dispersion of Commercial Real Estate Returns and Rent Growth: Time Variation and Economic Fluctuations," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 36(3), pages 403-439, September.
  62. Sarlan, Haldun, 2001. "Cyclical aspects of business cycle turning points," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 369-382.
  63. Rossen, Anja, 2015. "What are metal prices like? Co-movement, price cycles and long-run trends," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 255-276.
  64. Liu Xiangdong & Mi Zeyu & Chen Huida, 2020. "A Class of Jump-Diffusion Stochastic Differential System Under Markovian Switching and Analytical Properties of Solutions," Journal of Systems Science and Information, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 17-32, February.
  65. C. O'Sullivan, 1993. "What Everyone Needs to Know About the Australian Business Cycle," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 93-21, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
  66. Khurshid M. Kiani & Prasad V. Bidarkota, 2004. "On Business Cycle Asymmetries in G7 Countries," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(3), pages 333-351, July.
  67. McKay, Alisdair & Reis, Ricardo, 2008. "The brevity and violence of contractions and expansions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 738-751, May.
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  70. Mercado, Rogelio V., 2019. "Capital flow transitions: Domestic factors and episodes of gross capital inflows," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 251-264.
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  72. Lixin Cai, 2004. "An Analysis of Durations on the Disability Support Pension (DSP) Program," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2004n08, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
  73. Chang-Jin Kim & Chris Murray, 1999. "Permanent and Transitory Nature of Recessions," Working Papers 0041, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
  74. Matteo Pelagatti, 2003. "Duration Dependent Markov-Switching Vector Autoregression: Properties, Bayesian Inference, Software and Application," Working Papers 20051101, Università degli Studi di Milano-Bicocca, Dipartimento di Statistica, revised Nov 2005.
  75. Dettoni, Robinson & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Yaya, OlaOluwa S., 2024. "Stock market prices and Dividends in the US: Bubbles or Long-run equilibria relationships?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
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