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False Discoveries in Mutual Fund Performance: Measuring Luck in Estimated Alphas

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  1. Wei-Xing Zhou & Guo-Hua Mu & Si-Wei Chen & Didier Sornette, "undated". "Strategies used as Spectroscopy of Financial Markets Reveal New Stylized Facts," Working Papers ETH-RC-11-005, ETH Zurich, Chair of Systems Design.
  2. Enareta Kurtbegu & Juliana Caicedo-llano, 2014. "European equity fund managers: luck or skill?!," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 34(4), pages 2340-2350.
  3. Yuan Zhao, 2014. "Cross-sector fund performance comparison: the role of real estate mutual funds," ERES eres2014_213, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
  4. Chinco, Alex & Neuhierl, Andreas & Weber, Michael, 2021. "Estimating the anomaly base rate," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(1), pages 101-126.
  5. Laurent Barras & Patrick Gagliardini & Olivier Scaillet, 2022. "Skill, Scale, and Value Creation in the Mutual Fund Industry," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(1), pages 601-638, February.
  6. Stephen A. Gorman & Frank J. Fabozzi, 2021. "The ABC’s of the ARP: understanding alternative risk premium," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 22(6), pages 391-404, October.
  7. Campbell R. Harvey & Yan Liu, 2022. "Luck versus Skill in the Cross Section of Mutual Fund Returns: Reexamining the Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(3), pages 1921-1966, June.
  8. Pouliot, William, 2016. "Robust tests for change in intercept and slope in linear regression models with application to manager performance in the mutual fund industry," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 523-534.
  9. Angelidis, Timotheos & Giamouridis, Daniel & Tessaromatis, Nikolaos, 2013. "Revisiting mutual fund performance evaluation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1759-1776.
  10. Mateus, Irina B. & Mateus, Cesario & Todorovic, Natasa, 2019. "Review of new trends in the literature on factor models and mutual fund performance," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 344-354.
  11. Bernard, Carole & Vanduffel, Steven & Ye, Jiang, 2019. "A new efficiency test for ranking investments: Application to hedge fund performance," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 203-207.
  12. Claes Fornell & Sunil Mithas & Forrest V. Morgeson, III, 2009. "—The Economic and Statistical Significance of Stock Returns on Customer Satisfaction," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 28(5), pages 820-825, 09-10.
  13. Moon, H.R. & Perron, B., 2012. "Beyond panel unit root tests: Using multiple testing to determine the nonstationarity properties of individual series in a panel," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 169(1), pages 29-33.
  14. Barras, Laurent, 2019. "A large-scale approach for evaluating asset pricing models," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(3), pages 549-569.
  15. Yao Zheng & Eric Osmer & Liancun Zheng, 2020. "Can mutual funds time investor sentiment?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 1449-1486, May.
  16. H. Pierre Hsieh & Imen Tebourbi & Wen‐Min Lu & Nai‐Yu Liu, 2020. "Mutual fund performance: The decision quality and capital magnet efficiencies," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(5), pages 861-872, July.
  17. Jin, Xiaoye, 2022. "Performance of intraday technical trading in China’s gold market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
  18. Fletcher, Jonathan, 2021. "Evaluating the performance of U.S. international equity closed-end funds," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
  19. Patrick Gagliardini & Elisa Ossola & Olivier Scaillet, 2016. "Time‐Varying Risk Premium in Large Cross‐Sectional Equity Data Sets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 84, pages 985-1046, May.
  20. Carmen-Pilar Mart¨ª-Ballester, 2012. "A Comparative Analysis of the Performance of Collective Investment Institutions," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 2, pages 43-52, May.
  21. Haffar, Adlane & Le Fur, Éric, 2022. "Time-varying dependence of Bitcoin," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 211-220.
  22. J. Wiesinger & D. Sornette & J. Satinover, 2013. "Reverse Engineering Financial Markets with Majority and Minority Games Using Genetic Algorithms," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 41(4), pages 475-492, April.
  23. Pierre Bajgrowicz & Olivier Scaillet & Adrien Treccani, 2016. "Jumps in High-Frequency Data: Spurious Detections, Dynamics, and News," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 62(8), pages 2198-2217, August.
  24. Richard W. Kopcke & Francis M. Vitagliano & Zhenya S. Karamcheva, 2009. "Fees and Trading Costs of Equity Mutual Funds in 401(k) Plans and Potential Savings from ETFS and Commingled Trusts," Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College wp2009-27, Center for Retirement Research, revised Nov 2009.
  25. Yongjae Lee & Woo Chang Kim & Jang Ho Kim, 2020. "Achieving Portfolio Diversification for Individuals with Low Financial Sustainability," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(17), pages 1-16, August.
  26. Laurent Barras & Patrick Gagliardini & O. Scaillet, 2018. "The Cross-Sectional Distribution of Fund Skill Measures," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 18-66, Swiss Finance Institute.
  27. Dimitris Georgarakos & Roman Inderst, 2011. "Financial Advice and Stock Market Participation," BCL working papers 51, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
  28. Habib, Michel A. & Johnsen, D. Bruce, 2016. "The quality-assuring role of mutual fund advisory fees," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 1-19.
  29. Kamil, Nazrol K.M. & Alhabshi, Syed O. & Bacha, Obiyathulla I. & Masih, Mansur, 2014. "Heads we win, tails you lose: Is there equity in Islamic equity funds?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 7-28.
  30. Michel Verlaine, 2022. "Behavioral finance and the architecture of the asset management industry," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(5), pages 1454-1476, December.
  31. Huang, Rong & Asteriou, Dimitrios & Pouliot, William, 2020. "A reappraisal of luck versus skill in the cross-section of mutual fund returns," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 166-187.
  32. Kelsey D. Wei & Russ Wermers & Tong Yao, 2015. "Uncommon Value: The Characteristics and Investment Performance of Contrarian Funds," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(10), pages 2394-2414, October.
  33. Manisha Dey & Sasmita Mishra & Suddhasanta De, 2024. "A Study on How Institutional Investors Respond to Risk, Return and Volatility: Evidence from the Indian Stock Market," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 15(1), pages 5072-5093, March.
  34. Hassanniakalager, Arman & Baker, Paul L. & Platanakis, Emmanouil, 2024. "A False Discovery Rate approach to optimal volatility forecasting model selection," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 881-902.
  35. Bryan Foltice & Thomas Langer, 2015. "Profitable momentum trading strategies for individual investors," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 29(2), pages 85-113, May.
  36. Kim, Sangbae & In, Francis & Ji, Philip Inyeob & Park, Raphael Jonghyeon, 2014. "False discoveries in the performance of Australian managed funds," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 244-256.
  37. Zheng, Yao & Osmer, Eric & Zheng, Liancun, 2021. "Can mutual fund managers time commonality in stock market misvaluation?," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
  38. Russ Wermers & Tong Yao & Jane Zhao, 2012. "Forecasting Stock Returns Through an Efficient Aggregation of Mutual Fund Holdings," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(12), pages 3490-3529.
  39. Kevin Primicerio & Damien Challet & Stanislao Gualdi, 2017. "Wisdom of the institutional crowd," Papers 1703.01989, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2017.
  40. Haensly, Paul J., 2022. "Lessons from naïve diversification about the risk-reward trade-off," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
  41. Andrew Y. Chen, 2022. "Do t-Statistic Hurdles Need to be Raised?," Papers 2204.10275, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2024.
  42. Ben-Rephael, Azi & Kandel, Shmuel & Wohl, Avi, 2012. "Measuring investor sentiment with mutual fund flows," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 363-382.
  43. Moraes, Fernando & Cavalcante-Filho, Elias & De-Losso, Rodrigo, 2021. "Unskilled fund managers: Replicating active fund performance with few ETFs," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
  44. Pástor, Ľuboš & Stambaugh, Robert F. & Taylor, Lucian A., 2015. "Scale and skill in active management," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1), pages 23-45.
  45. Lai, Wan-Ni, 2016. "Do academic investment insights benefit society?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 172-176.
  46. Monica Billio & Bertrand Maillet & Loriana Pelizzon, 2022. "A meta-measure of performance related to both investors and investments characteristics," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 313(2), pages 1405-1447, June.
  47. Andrea Flori & Fabrizio Lillo & Fabio Pammolli & Alessandro Spelta, 2021. "Better to stay apart: asset commonality, bipartite network centrality, and investment strategies," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 299(1), pages 177-213, April.
  48. Yi, Li & He, Lei, 2016. "False discoveries in style timing of Chinese mutual funds," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 194-208.
  49. Zabiulla, 2012. "Macro Forecasting Abilities of Mutual Fund Managers in the Indian Capital Market," Indian Journal of Commerce and Management Studies, Educational Research Multimedia & Publications,India, vol. 3(2), pages 06-11, May.
  50. Hunter, David & Kandel, Eugene & Kandel, Shmuel & Wermers, Russ, 2014. "Mutual fund performance evaluation with active peer benchmarks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(1), pages 1-29.
  51. Hugo Inzirillo & R'emi Genet, 2021. "Performance vs Persistence : Assess the alpha to identify outperformers," Papers 2111.06886, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2021.
  52. Cuthbertson, Keith & Nitzsche, Dirk & O'Sullivan, Niall, 2008. "UK mutual fund performance: Skill or luck?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 613-634, September.
  53. Donatien Tafin Djoko & Yves Till�, 2015. "Selection of balanced portfolios to track the main properties of a large market," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(2), pages 359-370, February.
  54. Jonathan Wiley & Brandon Cline & Xudong Fu & Tian Tang, 2012. "Valuation Effects for Asset Sales," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 41(3), pages 103-120, June.
  55. Ewens, Michael & Gorbenko, Alexander & Korteweg, Arthur, 2022. "Venture capital contracts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(1), pages 131-158.
  56. Oleg Rytchkov & Xun Zhong, 2020. "Information Aggregation and P-Hacking," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(4), pages 1605-1626, April.
  57. Alan Crane & Kevin Crotty, 2020. "How Skilled Are Security Analysts?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(3), pages 1629-1675, June.
  58. Pástor, Ľuboš & Stambaugh, Robert F. & Taylor, Lucian A., 2015. "Scale and skill in active management," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1), pages 23-45.
  59. Adlane Haffar & Éric Le Fur, 2022. "Dependence structure of CAT bonds and portfolio diversification: a copula-GARCH approach," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 23(4), pages 297-309, July.
  60. Fisher, Mark & Jensen, Mark J., 2022. "Bayesian nonparametric learning of how skill is distributed across the mutual fund industry," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 230(1), pages 131-153.
  61. Dimitrios Koutmos & Bochen Wu & Qi Zhang, 2020. "In search of winning mutual funds in the Chinese stock market," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 589-616, February.
  62. Taylor, Mark & Hsu, Po-Hsuan, 2014. "Forty Years, Thirty Currencies and 21,000 Trading Rules: A Large-scale, Data-Snooping Robust Analysis of Technical Trading in t," CEPR Discussion Papers 10018, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  63. Ardia, David & Barras, Laurent & Gagliardini, Patrick & Scaillet, Olivier, 2024. "Is it alpha or beta? Decomposing hedge fund returns when models are misspecified," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
  64. Jeffrey Hobbs & Vivek Singh, 2015. "A comparison of buy‐side and sell‐side analysts," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 24(1), pages 42-51, January.
  65. Nabil Bouamara & S'ebastien Laurent & Shuping Shi, 2023. "Sequential Cauchy Combination Test for Multiple Testing Problems with Financial Applications," Papers 2303.13406, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2023.
  66. Alex R. Horenstein, 2021. "The Unintended Impact of Academic Research on Asset Returns: The Capital Asset Pricing Model Alpha," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(6), pages 3655-3673, June.
  67. Anthony Tay & Jacques Olivier, 2008. "Time-Varying Incentives in the Mutual Fund Industry," Working Papers 10-2008, Singapore Management University, School of Economics, revised Jun 2008.
  68. F. Douglas Foster & Geoffrey J. Warren, 2015. "Why Might Investors Choose Active Management?," Journal of Behavioral Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1), pages 20-39, January.
  69. Matallín-Sáez, Juan Carlos & Soler-Domínguez, Amparo & Tortosa-Ausina, Emili, 2016. "On the robustness of persistence in mutual fund performance," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 192-231.
  70. Ge, Shuyi & Li, Shaoran & Linton, Oliver, 2023. "News-implied linkages and local dependency in the equity market," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 779-815.
  71. Bajgrowicz, Pierre & Scaillet, Olivier, 2012. "Technical trading revisited: False discoveries, persistence tests, and transaction costs," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(3), pages 473-491.
  72. Taffler, Richard J. & Spence, Crawford & Eshraghi, Arman, 2017. "Emotional economic man: Calculation and anxiety in fund management," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 53-67.
  73. Hassine, Marlène & Roncalli, Thierry, 2013. "Measuring Performance of Exchange Traded Funds," MPRA Paper 44298, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  74. Deprez, Niek & Frömmel, Michael, 2024. "Are simple technical trading rules profitable in bitcoin markets?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PB), pages 858-874.
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