IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/oup/revfin/v15y2010i2p441-474.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Survivorship Bias and Mutual Fund Performance: Relevance, Significance, and Methodical Differences

Author

Listed:
  • Martin Rohleder
  • Hendrik Scholz
  • Marco Wilkens

Abstract

This is the first paper systematically calculating, testing and explaining different definitions of the survivorship bias in fund performance. We document that the survival-performance-relation is stronger for small funds and we find significant under-performance of non-survivors but no significant out-performance of new funds. Survivorship bias is still a problem as well in other fields of research, e.g., in countries where survivorship bias-free data is not available and because certain methods require truncated data. This paper provides guidance on how to deal with and reduce survivorship bias in empirical studies. Copyright 2010, Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Rohleder & Hendrik Scholz & Marco Wilkens, 2010. "Survivorship Bias and Mutual Fund Performance: Relevance, Significance, and Methodical Differences," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 15(2), pages 441-474.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:revfin:v:15:y:2010:i:2:p:441-474
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/rof/rfq023
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kathryn A. Holmes & Robert W. Faff, 2004. "Stability, Asymmetry and Seasonality of Fund Performance: An Analysis of Australian Multi‐sector Managed Funds," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(3‐4), pages 539-578, April.
    2. Michael C. Jensen, 1968. "The Performance Of Mutual Funds In The Period 1945–1964," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(2), pages 389-416, May.
    3. Roger Otten & Dennis Bams, 2002. "European Mutual Fund Performance," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 8(1), pages 75-101, March.
    4. Brown, Stephen J & Goetzmann, William N & Ross, Stephen A, 1995. "Survival," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(3), pages 853-873, July.
    5. Ciccotello, Conrad S. & Grant, C. Terry, 1996. "Equity fund size and growth: Implications for performance and selection," Financial Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 1-12.
    6. Elton, Edwin J & Gruber, Martin J & Blake, Christopher R, 1996. "Survivorship Bias and Mutual Fund Performance," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(4), pages 1097-1120.
    7. Laurent Barras & Olivier Scaillet & Russ Wermers, 2010. "False Discoveries in Mutual Fund Performance: Measuring Luck in Estimated Alphas," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(1), pages 179-216, February.
    8. Javier Gil‐Bazo & Pablo Ruiz‐Verdú, 2009. "The Relation between Price and Performance in the Mutual Fund Industry," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(5), pages 2153-2183, October.
    9. Brown, Stephen J & Goetzmann, William N, 1995. "Performance Persistence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 679-698, June.
    10. K. J. Martijn Cremers & Antti Petajisto, 2009. "How Active Is Your Fund Manager? A New Measure That Predicts Performance," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(9), pages 3329-3365, September.
    11. Pastor, Lubos & Stambaugh, Robert F., 2002. "Mutual fund performance and seemingly unrelated assets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 315-349, March.
    12. Kathryn A. Holmes & Robert W. Faff, 2004. "Stability, Asymmetry and Seasonality of Fund Performance: An Analysis of Australian Multi‐sector Managed Funds," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(3‐4), pages 539-578, April.
    13. Mark M. Carhart & Jennifer N. Carpenter & Anthony W. Lynch & David K. Musto, 2002. "Mutual Fund Survivorship," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(5), pages 1439-1463.
    14. Martijn Cremers & Antti Petajisto, 2006. "How Active is Your Fund Manager? A New Measure That Predicts Performance," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2370, Yale School of Management, revised 01 May 2009.
    15. Grinblatt, Mark & Titman, Sheridan D, 1989. "Mutual Fund Performance: An Analysis of Quarterly Portfolio Holdings," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(3), pages 393-416, July.
    16. Droms, William G. & Walker, David A., 1996. "Mutual fund investment performance," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 347-363.
    17. Martin Eling, 2009. "Does Hedge Fund Performance Persist? Overview and New Empirical Evidence," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 15(2), pages 362-401, March.
    18. Jonathan B. Berk & Richard C. Green, 2004. "Mutual Fund Flows and Performance in Rational Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(6), pages 1269-1295, December.
    19. Deaves, Richard, 2004. "Data-conditioning biases, performance, persistence and flows: The case of Canadian equity funds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 673-694, March.
    20. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    21. Liang, Bing, 2000. "Hedge Funds: The Living and the Dead," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(3), pages 309-326, September.
    22. ter Horst, Jenke R. & Nijman, Theo E. & Verbeek, Marno, 2001. "Eliminating look-ahead bias in evaluating persistence in mutual fund performance," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 345-373, September.
    23. Blake, Christopher R & Elton, Edwin J & Gruber, Martin J, 1993. "The Performance of Bond Mutual Funds," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66(3), pages 370-403, July.
    24. Brown, Stephen J & Goetzmann, William N & Ibbotson, Roger G, 1999. "Offshore Hedge Funds: Survival and Performance, 1989-95," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72(1), pages 91-117, January.
    25. Grinblatt, Mark & Titman, Sheridan, 1994. "A Study of Monthly Mutual Fund Returns and Performance Evaluation Techniques," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29(3), pages 419-444, September.
    26. David Blake & Allan Timmermann, 1998. "Mutual Fund Performance: Evidence from the UK," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 2(1), pages 57-77.
    27. Xinge Zhao, 2005. "Exit Decisions in the U.S. Mutual Fund Industry," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(4), pages 1365-1402, July.
    28. Dahlquist, Magnus & Engström, Stefan & Söderlind, Paul, 2000. "Performance and Characteristics of Swedish Mutual Funds," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(3), pages 409-423, September.
    29. Wolfgang Bessler & Wolfgang Drobetz & Heinz Zimmermann, 2009. "Conditional performance evaluation for German equity mutual funds," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(3), pages 287-316.
    30. Rogér Otten & Dennis Bams, 2004. "How to measure mutual fund performance: economic versus statistical relevance," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 44(2), pages 203-222, July.
    31. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. "On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    32. Jenke Ter Horst & Marno Verbeek, 2007. "Fund Liquidation, Self-selection, and Look-ahead Bias in the Hedge Fund Industry," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 11(4), pages 605-632.
    33. Richard B. Evans, 2010. "Mutual Fund Incubation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(4), pages 1581-1611, August.
    34. Ron Bird & Helen Chin & Michael McCrae, 1983. "The Performance of Australian Superannuation Funds," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 8(1), pages 49-69, June.
    35. Malkiel, Burton G, 1995. "Returns from Investing in Equity Mutual Funds 1971 to 1991," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 549-572, June.
    36. William P. Dukes & Philip C. English & Sean M. Davis, 2006. "Mutual Fund Mortality, 12b‐1 Fees, And The Net Expense Ratio," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 235-252, June.
    37. Wentworth Boynton & Henry R. Oppenheimer, 2006. "Anomalies in Stock Market Pricing: Problems in Return Measurements," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(5), pages 2617-2632, September.
    38. Joseph Chen & Harrison Hong & Ming Huang & Jeffrey D. Kubik, 2004. "Does Fund Size Erode Mutual Fund Performance? The Role of Liquidity and Organization," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(5), pages 1276-1302, December.
    39. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    40. Joshua M. Pollet & Mungo Wilson, 2008. "How Does Size Affect Mutual Fund Behavior?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(6), pages 2941-2969, December.
    41. Aymen Karoui & Iwan Meier, 2009. "Performance and characteristics of mutual fund starts," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(5-6), pages 487-509.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hung-Cheng Lai & Kuan-Min Wang, 2016. "Does Survivorship Bias of Mutual Funds Differ Between Liquidations and Mergers?," Eastern European Business and Economics Journal, Eastern European Business and Economics Studies Centre, vol. 2(4), pages 299-314.
    2. Sebastian Krimm & Hendrik Scholz & Marco Wilkens, 2012. "The Sharpe ratio's market climate bias: Theoretical and empirical evidence from US equity mutual funds," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 13(4), pages 227-242, August.
    3. Oleksii Reva & Volodymyr Kamyshyn & Serhii Borsuk & Stanislav Yarotskyiі & Bogdan Avramchuk, 2023. "Eliminating "systematic survivorship bias" in the attitude of specialists to the significance of investment attractive features of examined objects," Eastern-European Journal of Enterprise Technologies, PC TECHNOLOGY CENTER, vol. 6(13 (126)), pages 54-64, December.
    4. Omneya Abdelsalam & Meryem Duygun & Juan Carlos Matallín-Sáez & Emili Tortosa-Ausina, 2014. "Is Ethical Money Sensitive to Past Returns? The Case of Portfolio Constraints and Persistence of Islamic and Socially Responsible Funds," Working Papers 2014/19, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
    5. Martin Rohleder & Dominik Schulte & Marco Wilkens, 2017. "Management of flow risk in mutual funds," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 48(1), pages 31-56, January.
    6. Omneya Abdelsalam & Meryem Duygun & Juan Carlos Matallín-Sáez & Emili Tortosa-Ausina, 2017. "Is Ethical Money Sensitive to Past Returns? The Case of Portfolio Constraints and Persistence in Islamic Funds," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 51(3), pages 363-384, June.
    7. Laura Fabregat-Aibar & Maria-Teresa Sorrosal-Forradellas & Glòria Barberà-Mariné & Antonio Terceño, 2021. "Can Artificial Neural Networks Predict the Survival Capacity of Mutual Funds? Evidence from Spain," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(6), pages 1-10, March.
    8. Bernhard Breloer & Hannah Lea Hühn & Hendrik Scholz, 2016. "Jensen alpha and market climate," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 17(3), pages 195-214, May.
    9. Martin Rohleder, 2015. "The Relation between Past Flows and Future Performance: Simple Investment Strategies in the Mutual Fund Sector," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 3(1), pages 1-28, February.
    10. Juan Carlos Matallín-Sáez & Amparo Soler-Domínguez & Emili Tortosa-Ausina, 2016. "Ethical strategy focus and mutual fund management: performance and persistence," Working Papers 2016/01, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
    11. Cogneau, Philippe & Hübner, Georges, 2015. "The prediction of fund failure through performance diagnostics," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 224-241.
    12. Michela Altieri & Giovanna Nicodano, 2020. "Survival and Pricing Puzzles," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 604, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
    13. Carmen Pilar Martí Ballester, 2020. "Does Concurrent Management of Mutual Funds and Pension Plans Create Conflicts of Interest?," Ensayos de Economía 18307, Universidad Nacional de Colombia Sede Medellín.
    14. Martin Rohleder & Hendrik Scholz & Marco Wilkens, 2018. "Success and failure on the corporate bond fund market," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 19(6), pages 429-443, October.
    15. Babalos, Vassilios & Philippas, Nikolaos & Doumpos, Michael & Zompounidis, Constantin, 2011. "Mutual funds performance appraisal using stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis," MPRA Paper 37953, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Zalewska, Anna (Ania) & Zhang, Yue, 2020. "Mutual funds' exits, financial crisis and Darwin," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    17. Breloer, Bernhard & Scholz, Hendrik & Wilkens, Marco, 2014. "Performance of international and global equity mutual funds: Do country momentum and sector momentum matter?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 58-77.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bessler, Wolfgang & Blake, David & Lückoff, Peter & Tonks, Ian, 2010. "Why does mutual fund performance not persist? The impact and interaction of fund flows and manager changes," MPRA Paper 34185, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Li Xian Liu & Fuming Jiang & Jizhong Li & Omar Al Farooque, 2021. "Antecedents of Equity Fund Performance: A Contingency Perspective," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 24(01), pages 1-40, March.
    3. Amaral, Fatima & Reis, Pedro & Pinto, Pedro, 2019. "Evaluating investment fund performance in Portugal," Business and Economic Horizons (BEH), Prague Development Center (PRADEC), vol. 15(2).
    4. Miguel A. Ferreira & Aneel Keswani & António F. Miguel & Sofia B. Ramos, 2013. "The Determinants of Mutual Fund Performance: A Cross-Country Study," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 17(2), pages 483-525.
    5. Wolfgang Bessler & Thomas Conlon & Diego Víctor de Mingo‐López & Juan Carlos Matallín‐Sáez, 2022. "Mutual fund performance and changes in factor exposure," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 45(1), pages 17-52, March.
    6. Elton, Edwin J. & Gruber, Martin J., 2013. "Mutual Funds," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1011-1061, Elsevier.
    7. Livingston, Miles & Yao, Ping & Zhou, Lei, 2019. "The volatility of mutual fund performance," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 1-1.
    8. Martin Rohleder, 2015. "The Relation between Past Flows and Future Performance: Simple Investment Strategies in the Mutual Fund Sector," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 3(1), pages 1-28, February.
    9. Makni, Rania & Benouda, Olfa & Delhoumi, Ezzedine, 2016. "International evidence on Islamic equity fund characteristics and performance persistence," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 75-82.
    10. Cuthbertson, Keith & Nitzsche, Dirk & O'Sullivan, Niall, 2016. "A review of behavioural and management effects in mutual fund performance," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 162-176.
    11. Pi‐Hsia Hung & Donald Lien & Yun‐Ju Chien, 2020. "Portfolio concentration and fund manager performance," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(3), pages 423-451, July.
    12. Matallín-Sáez, Juan Carlos & Soler-Domínguez, Amparo & Tortosa-Ausina, Emili, 2016. "On the robustness of persistence in mutual fund performance," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 192-231.
    13. Michael Busack & Wolfgang Drobetz & Jan Tille, 2017. "Can investors benefit from the performance of alternative UCITS funds?," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 31(1), pages 69-111, February.
    14. Sonal Babbar & Sanjay Sehgal, 2018. "Mutual Fund Characteristics and Investment Performance in India," Management and Labour Studies, XLRI Jamshedpur, School of Business Management & Human Resources, vol. 43(1-2), pages 1-30, February.
    15. Bernhard Breloer & Hannah Lea Hühn & Hendrik Scholz, 2016. "Jensen alpha and market climate," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 17(3), pages 195-214, May.
    16. Javier Vidal-García & Marta Vidal & Sabri Boubaker & Majdi Hassan, 2018. "The efficiency of mutual funds," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 267(1), pages 555-584, August.
    17. Artamonov, Nikita & Voronina, Anna & Emelyanov, Nikita & Kurbatskii, Aleksei, 2020. "Estimation of interest rates’ impact on mutual funds’ performance in the USA," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 58, pages 55-75.
    18. Grose, Chris & Dasilas, Apostolos & Alexakis, Christos, 2014. "Performance persistence in fixed interest funds: With an eye on the post-debt crisis period," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 155-182.
    19. Ľuboš Pástor & Robert F. Stambaugh & Lucian A. Taylor, 2017. "Do Funds Make More When They Trade More?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 72(4), pages 1483-1528, August.
    20. Capocci, Daniel & Hubner, Georges, 2004. "Analysis of hedge fund performance," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 55-89, January.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oup:revfin:v:15:y:2010:i:2:p:441-474. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Oxford University Press (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/eufaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.