Combining density forecasts

Citations

Cited by:

1. Hautsch, Nikolaus & Voigt, Stefan, 2019. "Large-scale portfolio allocation under transaction costs and model uncertainty," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 212(1), pages 221-240.
   • Nikolaus Hautsch & Stefan Voigt, 2017. "Large-Scale Portfolio Allocation Under Transaction Costs and Model Uncertainty," Papers 1709.06296, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2018.
   • Hautsch, Nikolaus & Voigt, Stefan, 2017. "Large-scale portfolio allocation under transaction costs and model uncertainty," CFS Working Paper Series 582, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
2. Pauwels, Laurent & Radchenko, Peter & Vasnev, Andrey, 2019. "Higher Moment Constraints for Predictive Density Combinations," Working Papers BAWP-2019-01, University of Sydney Business School, Discipline of Business Analytics.
   • Pauwels, Laurent & Radchenko, Peter & Vasnev, Andrey, 2020. "Higher Moment Constraints for Predictive Density Combinations," Working Papers BAWP-2020-01, University of Sydney Business School, Discipline of Business Analytics.
3. Gian Luigi Mazzi & James Mitchell & Gaetana Montana, 2014. "Density Nowcasts and Model Combination: Nowcasting Euro-Area GDP Growth over the 2008–09 Recession," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 76(2), pages 233-256, April.
4. Davide Pettenuzzo & Allan Timmermann, 2017. "Forecasting Macroeconomic Variables Under Model Instability," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(2), pages 183-201, April.
   • Timmermann, Allan & Pettenuzzo, Davide, 2016. "Forecasting Macroeconomic Variables under Model Instability," CEPR Discussion Papers 11355, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
5. Daniel Buncic, 2012. "Understanding forecast failure of ESTAR models of real exchange rates," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 399-426, August.
   • Daniel Buncic, 2009. "Understanding forecast failure of ESTAR models of real exchange rates," EERI Research Paper Series EERI_RP_2009_18, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
   • Buncic, Daniel, 2009. "Understanding forecast failure in ESTAR models of real exchange rates," MPRA Paper 13121, University Library of Munich, Germany.
   • Buncic, Daniel, 2009. "Understanding forecast failure of ESTAR models of real exchange rates," MPRA Paper 16526, University Library of Munich, Germany.
6. Davide Pettenuzzo & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2016. "Optimal Portfolio Choice Under Decision‐Based Model Combinations," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(7), pages 1312-1332, November.
   • Davide Pettenuzzo & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2014. "Optimal Portfolio Choice under Decision-Based Model Combinations," Working Papers 80, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Business School.
   • Davide Pettenuzzo & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2015. "Optimal Portfolio Choice under Decision-Based Model Combinations," Working Papers No 9/2015, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
   • Davide Pettenuzzo & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2014. "Optimal portfolio choice under decision-based model combinations," Working Paper 2014/15, Norges Bank.
7. Kolassa, Stephan, 2011. "Combining exponential smoothing forecasts using Akaike weights," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 238-251, April.
8. Richard K. Crump & Domenico Giannone & Sean Hundtofte, 2018. "Changing Risk-Return Profiles," Liberty Street Economics 20181004, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
   • Richard K. Crump & Miro Everaert & Domenico Giannone & Sean Hundtofte, 2018. "Changing Risk-Return Profiles," Staff Reports 850, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
9. Hilde C. Bjørnland & Karsten Gerdrup & Anne Sofie Jore & Christie Smith & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2012. "Does Forecast Combination Improve Norges Bank Inflation Forecasts?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 74(2), pages 163-179, April.
   • Hilde C. Bjørnland & Karsten Gerdrup & Anne Sofie Jore & Christie Smith & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2009. "Does forecast combination improve Norges Bank inflation forecasts?," Working Paper 2009/01, Norges Bank.
   • Hilde C. Bjørnland & Karsten R. Gerdrup & Anne Sofie Jore & Leif Anders Thorsrud & Christie Smith, 2010. "Does forecast combination improve Norges Bank inflation forecasts?," Working Papers No 2/2010, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
10. Deak, S. & Levine, P. & Mirza, A. & Pearlman, J., 2019. "Designing Robust Monetary Policy Using Prediction Pools," Working Papers 19/11, Department of Economics, City University London.
    • Szabolcs Deák & Paul Levine & Afrasiab Mirza & Joseph Pearlman, 2019. "Designing Robust Monetary Policy Using Prediction Pools," School of Economics Discussion Papers 1219, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
11. Čapek, Jan & Crespo Cuaresma, Jesús & Hauzenberger, Niko & Reichel, Vlastimil, 2023. "Macroeconomic forecasting in the euro area using predictive combinations of DSGE models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 1820-1838.
    • Capek, Jan & Crespo Cuaresma, Jesus & Hauzenberger, Niko & Reichel, Vlastimil, 2020. "Macroeconomic forecasting in the euro area using predictive combinations of DSGE models," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 305, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    • Jan Capek & Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Niko Hauzenberger & Vlastimil Reichel, 2020. "Macroeconomic forecasting in the euro area using predictive combinations of DSGE models," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp305, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
12. Geweke, John & Amisano, Gianni, 2011. "Optimal prediction pools," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 164(1), pages 130-141, September.
    • John Geweke & Gianni Amisano, 2008. "Optimal Prediction Pools," Working Paper series 22_08, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    • Amisano, Gianni & Geweke, John, 2009. "Optimal Prediction Pools," Working Paper Series 1017, European Central Bank.
13. Benjamin Avanzi & Yanfeng Li & Bernard Wong & Alan Xian, 2022. "Ensemble distributional forecasting for insurance loss reserving," Papers 2206.08541, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2024.
14. Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia & Ricco, Giovanni, 2018. "Bayesian Vector Autoregressions," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1159, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    • Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia & Ricco, Giovanni, 2018. "Bayesian vector autoregressions," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 87393, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Silvia Miranda Agrippino & Giovanni Ricco, 2018. "Bayesian vector autoregressions," Working Papers hal-03458277, HAL.
    • Silvia Miranda-Agrippino & Giovanni Ricco, 2018. "Bayesian Vector Autoregressions," Discussion Papers 1808, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    • Silvia Miranda Agrippino & Giovanni Ricco, 2018. "Bayesian vector autoregressions," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03458277, HAL.
    • Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia & Ricco, Giovanni, 2018. "Bayesian vector autoregressions," Bank of England working papers 756, Bank of England.
    • Silvia Miranda-Agrippino & Giovanni Ricco, 2018. "Bayesian vector autoregressions," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2018-18, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
15. Casarin, Roberto & Grassi, Stefano & Ravazzolo, Francesco & van Dijk, Herman K., 2015. "Parallel Sequential Monte Carlo for Efficient Density Combination: The DeCo MATLAB Toolbox," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 68(i03).
    • Roberto Casarin & Stefano Grassi & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2013. "Parallel Sequential Monte Carlo for Efficient Density Combination: The Deco Matlab Toolbox," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-055/III, Tinbergen Institute, revised 16 Jan 2015.
    • Roberto Casarin & Stefano Grassi & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2013. "Parallel Sequential Monte Carlo for Efficient Density Combination: The Deco Matlab Toolbox," CREATES Research Papers 2013-09, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    • Roberto Casarin & Stefano Grassi & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2013. "Parallel Sequential Monte Carlo for Efficient Density Combination: The DeCo Matlab Toolbox," Working Papers 2013:08, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    • Roberto Casarin & Stefano Grassi & Francesco Ravazzolo & Harman K. van Dijk, 2014. "Parallel sequential Monte Carlo for efficient density combination: The DeCo MATLAB toolbox," Working Paper 2014/11, Norges Bank.
16. Li, Li & Kang, Yanfei & Li, Feng, 2023. "Bayesian forecast combination using time-varying features," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1287-1302.
    • Li Li & Yanfei Kang & Feng Li, 2021. "Bayesian forecast combination using time-varying features," Papers 2108.02082, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2022.
17. Lombardi, Marco J. & Ravazzolo, Francesco, 2016. "On the correlation between commodity and equity returns: Implications for portfolio allocation," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 45-57.
    • Marco Jacopo Lombardi, 2013. "On the correlation between commodity and equity returns: implications for portfolio allocation," BIS Working Papers 420, Bank for International Settlements.
18. Allayioti, Anastasia & Venditti, Fabrizio, 2024. "The role of comovement and time-varying dynamics in forecasting commodity prices," Working Paper Series 2901, European Central Bank.
19. Balcilar, Mehmet & Katzke, Nico & Gupta, Rangan, 2017. "Do precious metal prices help in forecasting South African inflation?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 63-72.
    • Mehmet Balcilar & NICO KATZKE & Rangan Gupta, 2015. "Do Precious Metal Prices Help in Forecasting South African Inflation?," Working Papers 15-05, Eastern Mediterranean University, Department of Economics.
    • Mehmet Balcilar & Nico Katzke & Rangan Gupta, 2015. "Do Precious Metal Prices Help in Forecasting South African Inflation?," Working Papers 03/2015, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
    • Mehmet Balcilar & Nico Katzke & Rangan Gupta, 2015. "Do Precious Metal Prices Help in Forecasting South African Inflation?," Working Papers 201510, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
20. Chen, Yi-Ting & Liu, Chu-An, 2023. "Model averaging for asymptotically optimal combined forecasts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 592-607.
    • Yi-Ting Chen & Chu-An Liu, 2021. "Model Averaging for Asymptotically Optimal Combined Forecasts," IEAS Working Paper : academic research 21-A002, Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan.
21. Cang, Shuang & Yu, Hongnian, 2014. "A combination selection algorithm on forecasting," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 234(1), pages 127-139.
22. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2010. "Combining predictive densities using Bayesian filtering with applications to US economics data," Working Paper 2010/29, Norges Bank.
    • Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2011. "Combining Predictive Densities using Bayesian Filtering with Applications to US Economics Data," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-003/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    • Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2012. "Combining predictive densities using Bayesian filtering with applications to US economic data," Working Papers 2012_16, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
23. Knüppel, Malte & Krüger, Fabian, 2017. "Forecast Uncertainty, Disagreement, and Linear Pools of Density Forecasts," VfS Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168294, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    • Knüppel, Malte & Krüger, Fabian, 2019. "Forecast uncertainty, disagreement, and the linear pool," Discussion Papers 28/2019, Deutsche Bundesbank.
24. Antonio Gargano & Davide Pettenuzzo & Allan Timmermann, 2019. "Bond Return Predictability: Economic Value and Links to the Macroeconomy," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(2), pages 508-540, February.
    • Davide Pettenuzzo & Antonio Gargano & Allan Timmermann, 2014. "Bond Return Predictability: Economic Value and Links to the Macroeconomy," Working Papers 75R, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Business School, revised Jul 2016.
    • Davide Pettenuzzo & Antonio Gargano & Allan Timmermann, 2014. "Bond Return Predictability: Economic Value and Links to the Macroeconomy," Working Papers 75, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Business School.
    • Timmermann, Allan & Pettenuzzo, Davide & Gargano, Antonio, 2014. "Bond Return Predictability: Economic Value and Links to the Macroeconomy," CEPR Discussion Papers 10104, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
25. Ferrara, Laurent & Mogliani, Matteo & Sahuc, Jean-Guillaume, 2022. "High-frequency monitoring of growth at risk," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 582-595.
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26. Lennart F. Hoogerheide & David Ardia & Nienke Corre, 2011. "Stock Index Returns' Density Prediction using GARCH Models: Frequentist or Bayesian Estimation?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-020/4, Tinbergen Institute.
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27. Lees, Kirdan & Matheson, Troy & Smith, Christie, 2011. "Open economy forecasting with a DSGE-VAR: Head to head with the RBNZ published forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 512-528, April.
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28. Stanislav Anatolyev & Renat Khabibullin & Artem Prokhorov, 2012. "Reconstructing high dimensional dynamic distributions from distributions of lower dimension," Working Papers 12003, Concordia University, Department of Economics.
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    • Stanislav Anatolyev & Renat Khabibullin & Artem Prokhorov, 2013. "Reconstructing high dimensional dynamic distributions from distributions of lower dimension," Working Papers w0167, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
29. Hecq, A.W. & Götz, T.B. & Urbain, J.R.Y.J., 2012. "Real-time forecast density combinations (forecasting US GDP growth using mixed-frequency data)," Research Memorandum 021, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
    • Götz, T.B. & Hecq, A.W. & Urbain, J.R.Y.J., 2014. "Combining distributions of real-time forecasts: An application to U.S. growth," Research Memorandum 027, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).
30. Lorenzo Burlon & Simone Emiliozzi & Alessandro Notarpietro & Massimiliano Pisani, 2015. "Medium-term forecasting of euro-area macroeconomic variables with DSGE and BVARX models," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 257, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
31. Wagner Piazza Gaglianone & Luiz Renato Lima, 2014. "Constructing Optimal Density Forecasts From Point Forecast Combinations," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(5), pages 736-757, August.
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32. Joshua C. C. Chan & Eric Eisenstat & Chenghan Hou & Gary Koop, 2020. "Composite likelihood methods for large Bayesian VARs with stochastic volatility," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(6), pages 692-711, September.
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    • Joshua C.C. Chan & Eric Eisenstat & Chenghan Hou & Gary Koop, 2018. "Composite likelihood methods for large Bayesian VARs with stochastic volatility," CAMA Working Papers 2018-26, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
33. Martinez-Martin Jaime & Morris Richard & Onorante Luca & Piersanti Fabio Massimo, 2024. "Merging Structural and Reduced-Form Models for Forecasting," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 24(1), pages 399-437, January.
34. Boriss Siliverstovs, 2013. "Do business tendency surveys help in forecasting employment?: A real-time evidence for Switzerland," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2013(2), pages 129-151.
35. Diebold, Francis X. & Shin, Minchul & Zhang, Boyuan, 2023. "On the aggregation of probability assessments: Regularized mixtures of predictive densities for Eurozone inflation and real interest rates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 237(2).
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36. Cees Diks & Valentyn Panchenko & Dick van Dijk, 2008. "Partial Likelihood-Based Scoring Rules for Evaluating Density Forecasts in Tails," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 08-050/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    • Cees Diks & Valentyn Panchenko & Dick van Dijk, 2008. "Partial Likelihood-Based Scoring Rules for Evaluating Density Forecasts in Tails," Discussion Papers 2008-10, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    • Dijk, D. van & Diks, C.G.H. & Panchenko, V., 2008. "Partial Likelihood-Based Scoring Rules for Evaluating Density Forecasts in Tails," CeNDEF Working Papers 08-03, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
37. Anne Sofie Jore & James Mitchell & Shaun P. Vahey, 2010. "Combining forecast densities from VARs with uncertain instabilities," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 621-634.
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38. Diks, Cees & Panchenko, Valentyn & van Dijk, Dick, 2010. "Out-of-sample comparison of copula specifications in multivariate density forecasts," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1596-1609, September.
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39. Tommaso Proietti & Martyna Marczak & Gianluigi Mazzi, 2017. "Euromind‐ D : A Density Estimate of Monthly Gross Domestic Product for the Euro Area," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(3), pages 683-703, April.
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40. Knut Are Aastveit & Karsten R. Gerdrup & Anne Sofie Jore & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2014. "Nowcasting GDP in Real Time: A Density Combination Approach," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(1), pages 48-68, January.
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49. Kapetanios, G. & Mitchell, J. & Price, S. & Fawcett, N., 2015. "Generalised density forecast combinations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 188(1), pages 150-165.
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50. Garratt, Anthony & Mitchell, James & Vahey, Shaun P. & Wakerly, Elizabeth C., 2011. "Real-time inflation forecast densities from ensemble Phillips curves," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 77-87, January.
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51. Diks, Cees & Panchenko, Valentyn & van Dijk, Dick, 2011. "Likelihood-based scoring rules for comparing density forecasts in tails," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 163(2), pages 215-230, August.
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