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Comparison of China's primary energy consumption forecasting by using ARIMA (the autoregressive integrated moving average) model and GM(1,1) model

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  1. Guo‐Feng Fan & Yan‐Hui Guo & Jia‐Mei Zheng & Wei‐Chiang Hong, 2020. "A generalized regression model based on hybrid empirical mode decomposition and support vector regression with back‐propagation neural network for mid‐short‐term load forecasting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(5), pages 737-756, August.
  2. Yi-Chung Hu, 2017. "Electricity consumption prediction using a neural-network-based grey forecasting approach," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 68(10), pages 1259-1264, October.
  3. Pin Li & Jinsuo Zhang, 2019. "Is China’s Energy Supply Sustainable? New Research Model Based on the Exponential Smoothing and GM(1,1) Methods," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-30, January.
  4. Atif Maqbool Khan & Magdalena Osińska, 2021. "How to Predict Energy Consumption in BRICS Countries?," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-21, May.
  5. Serin, Faruk & Alisan, Yigit & Kece, Adnan, 2021. "Hybrid time series forecasting methods for travel time prediction," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 579(C).
  6. Wang, Qiang & Li, Shuyu & Li, Rongrong, 2018. "Forecasting energy demand in China and India: Using single-linear, hybrid-linear, and non-linear time series forecast techniques," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 821-831.
  7. Shuyu Li & Xuan Yang & Rongrong Li, 2019. "Forecasting Coal Consumption in India by 2030: Using Linear Modified Linear (MGM-ARIMA) and Linear Modified Nonlinear (BP-ARIMA) Combined Models," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-19, January.
  8. Jacob Hale & Suzanna Long, 2020. "A Time Series Sustainability Assessment of a Partial Energy Portfolio Transition," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(1), pages 1-14, December.
  9. Lu, Peng & Ye, Lin & Zhao, Yongning & Dai, Binhua & Pei, Ming & Tang, Yong, 2021. "Review of meta-heuristic algorithms for wind power prediction: Methodologies, applications and challenges," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 301(C).
  10. Xu, Lei & Hou, Lei & Zhu, Zhenyu & Li, Yu & Liu, Jiaquan & Lei, Ting & Wu, Xingguang, 2021. "Mid-term prediction of electrical energy consumption for crude oil pipelines using a hybrid algorithm of support vector machine and genetic algorithm," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
  11. Wang, Qiang & Song, Xiaoxing & Li, Rongrong, 2018. "A novel hybridization of nonlinear grey model and linear ARIMA residual correction for forecasting U.S. shale oil production," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(PB), pages 1320-1331.
  12. Zhang, Yunxin & Guo, Huan & Sun, Ming & Liu, Sifeng & Forrest, Jeffrey, 2023. "A novel grey Lotka–Volterra model driven by the mechanism of competition and cooperation for energy consumption forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 264(C).
  13. Jianbo Yang & Qunyi Liu & Xin Li & Xiandan Cui, 2017. "Overview of Wind Power in China: Status and Future," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(8), pages 1-12, August.
  14. Luis Gonzaga Baca Ruiz & Manuel Pegalajar Cuéllar & Miguel Delgado Calvo-Flores & María Del Carmen Pegalajar Jiménez, 2016. "An Application of Non-Linear Autoregressive Neural Networks to Predict Energy Consumption in Public Buildings," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(9), pages 1-21, August.
  15. Wang, Junya & Zhao, Qinfang & Ning, Ping & Wen, Shikun, 2024. "Greenhouse gas contribution and emission reduction potential prediction of China's aluminum industry," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 290(C).
  16. Yonghua Li & Song Yao & Hezhou Jiang & Huarong Wang & Qinchuan Ran & Xinyun Gao & Xinyi Ding & Dandong Ge, 2022. "Spatial-Temporal Evolution and Prediction of Carbon Storage: An Integrated Framework Based on the MOP–PLUS–InVEST Model and an Applied Case Study in Hangzhou, East China," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-22, December.
  17. Ding, Song & Tao, Zui & Zhang, Huahan & Li, Yao, 2022. "Forecasting nuclear energy consumption in China and America: An optimized structure-adaptative grey model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PA).
  18. Pruethsan Sutthichaimethee & Danupon Ariyasajjakorn, 2018. "Relationships between Causal Factors Affecting Future Carbon Dioxide Output from Thailand’s Transportation Sector under the Government’s Sustainability Policy: Expanding the SEM-VECM Model," Resources, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-18, December.
  19. Hao Chen & Ling He & Jiachuan Chen & Bo Yuan & Teng Huang & Qi Cui, 2019. "Impacts of Clean Energy Substitution for Polluting Fossil-Fuels in Terminal Energy Consumption on the Economy and Environment in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(22), pages 1-29, November.
  20. Ke Yan & Xudong Wang & Yang Du & Ning Jin & Haichao Huang & Hangxia Zhou, 2018. "Multi-Step Short-Term Power Consumption Forecasting with a Hybrid Deep Learning Strategy," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-15, November.
  21. Anca Mehedintu & Mihaela Sterpu & Georgeta Soava, 2018. "Estimation and Forecasts for the Share of Renewable Energy Consumption in Final Energy Consumption by 2020 in the European Union," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-22, May.
  22. Cong Chen & Lei Yu & Xueting Zeng & Guohe Huang & Yongping Li, 2020. "Planning an Energy–Water–Environment Nexus System in Coal-Dependent Regions under Uncertainties," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-40, January.
  23. Geng Wu & Yi-Chung Hu & Yu-Jing Chiu & Shu-Ju Tsao, 2023. "A new multivariate grey prediction model for forecasting China’s regional energy consumption," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(5), pages 4173-4193, May.
  24. Karakurt, Izzet, 2021. "Modelling and forecasting the oil consumptions of the BRICS-T countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
  25. Pin Li & Jin-Suo Zhang, 2018. "A New Hybrid Method for China’s Energy Supply Security Forecasting Based on ARIMA and XGBoost," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-28, June.
  26. Hu, Huanling & Wang, Lin & Lv, Sheng-Xiang, 2020. "Forecasting energy consumption and wind power generation using deep echo state network," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 598-613.
  27. Mihaela Simionescu & Yuriy Bilan & Emília Krajňáková & Dalia Streimikiene & Stanisław Gędek, 2019. "Renewable Energy in the Electricity Sector and GDP per Capita in the European Union," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(13), pages 1-15, June.
  28. Wen-Jie Liu & Yu-Ting Bai & Xue-Bo Jin & Ting-Li Su & Jian-Lei Kong, 2022. "Adaptive Broad Echo State Network for Nonstationary Time Series Forecasting," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(17), pages 1-21, September.
  29. He, Yaoyao & Xu, Qifa & Wan, Jinhong & Yang, Shanlin, 2016. "Short-term power load probability density forecasting based on quantile regression neural network and triangle kernel function," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 498-512.
  30. Baochen Yang & Chuanze Liu & Yunpeng Su & Xin Jing, 2017. "The Allocation of Carbon Intensity Reduction Target by 2020 among Industrial Sectors in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-19, January.
  31. Mahdi Asadi & Iman Larki & Mohammad Mahdi Forootan & Rouhollah Ahmadi & Meisam Farajollahi, 2023. "Long-Term Scenario Analysis of Electricity Supply and Demand in Iran: Time Series Analysis, Renewable Electricity Development, Energy Efficiency and Conservation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-24, March.
  32. Prado, Francisco & Minutolo, Marcel C. & Kristjanpoller, Werner, 2020. "Forecasting based on an ensemble Autoregressive Moving Average - Adaptive neuro - Fuzzy inference system – Neural network - Genetic Algorithm Framework," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
  33. Wenting Zhao & Juanjuan Zhao & Xilong Yao & Zhixin Jin & Pan Wang, 2019. "A Novel Adaptive Intelligent Ensemble Model for Forecasting Primary Energy Demand," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-28, April.
  34. Bin Guo & Wencai Zhang & Lin Pei & Xiaowei Zhu & Pingping Luo & Weili Duan, 2022. "Remote Sensing Evidence for Significant Variations in the Global Gross Domestic Product during the COVID-19 Epidemic," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-21, November.
  35. Liu, Xiangfei & Ren, Mifeng & Yang, Zhile & Yan, Gaowei & Guo, Yuanjun & Cheng, Lan & Wu, Chengke, 2022. "A multi-step predictive deep reinforcement learning algorithm for HVAC control systems in smart buildings," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
  36. Huan Wang & Jiejun Huang & Han Zhou & Lixue Zhao & Yanbin Yuan, 2019. "An Integrated Variational Mode Decomposition and ARIMA Model to Forecast Air Temperature," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(15), pages 1-11, July.
  37. Zhao, Zhen-yu & Zhu, Jiang & Xia, Bo, 2016. "Multi-fractal fluctuation features of thermal power coal price in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 117(P1), pages 10-18.
  38. Xiwen Cui & Xinyu Guan & Dongyu Wang & Dongxiao Niu & Xiaomin Xu, 2022. "Can China Meet Its 2030 Total Energy Consumption Target? Based on an RF-SSA-SVR-KDE Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(16), pages 1-13, August.
  39. Kaboli, S. Hr. Aghay & Selvaraj, J. & Rahim, N.A., 2016. "Long-term electric energy consumption forecasting via artificial cooperative search algorithm," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 115(P1), pages 857-871.
  40. Zhonghua Yun & Wenhu Qin & Weipeng Shi & Peng Ping, 2020. "State-of-Health Prediction for Lithium-Ion Batteries Based on a Novel Hybrid Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-22, September.
  41. Xi Zhang & Zheng Li & Linwei Ma & Chinhao Chong & Weidou Ni, 2019. "Forecasting the Energy Embodied in Construction Services Based on a Combination of Static and Dynamic Hybrid Input-Output Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-26, January.
  42. Teng, Sin Yong & Máša, Vítězslav & Touš, Michal & Vondra, Marek & Lam, Hon Loong & Stehlík, Petr, 2022. "Waste-to-energy forecasting and real-time optimization: An anomaly-aware approach," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 142-155.
  43. Suat Ozturk & Feride Ozturk, 2018. "Forecasting Energy Consumption of Turkey by Arima Model," Journal of Asian Scientific Research, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 8(2), pages 52-60, February.
  44. Marian Kampik & Marcin Fice & Adam Pilśniak & Krzysztof Bodzek & Anna Piaskowy, 2023. "An Analysis of Energy Consumption in Small- and Medium-Sized Buildings," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-21, February.
  45. Sun-Youn Shin & Han-Gyun Woo, 2022. "Energy Consumption Forecasting in Korea Using Machine Learning Algorithms," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-20, July.
  46. Xu, Jie & Wu, Wen-Ze & Liu, Chong & Xie, Wanli & Zhang, Tao, 2024. "An extensive conformable fractional grey model and its application," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
  47. Mihaela Simionescu & Wadim Strielkowski & Manuela Tvaronavičienė, 2020. "Renewable Energy in Final Energy Consumption and Income in the EU-28 Countries," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-18, May.
  48. Lili Wang & Lina Zhan & Rongrong Li, 2019. "Prediction of the Energy Demand Trend in Middle Africa—A Comparison of MGM, MECM, ARIMA and BP Models," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-16, April.
  49. Ding, Song & Hipel, Keith W. & Dang, Yao-guo, 2018. "Forecasting China's electricity consumption using a new grey prediction model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 314-328.
  50. Xu, Ning & Dang, Yaoguo & Gong, Yande, 2017. "Novel grey prediction model with nonlinear optimized time response method for forecasting of electricity consumption in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 473-480.
  51. Jamil, Rehan, 2020. "Hydroelectricity consumption forecast for Pakistan using ARIMA modeling and supply-demand analysis for the year 2030," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 1-10.
  52. Rendón, Juan F. & Trespalacios, Alfredo & Cortés, Lina M. & Villada-Medina, Hernán D., 2021. "Modelización de la demanda de energía eléctrica: más allá de la normalidad || Electrical energy demand modeling: beyond normality," Revista de Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa = Journal of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, vol. 32(1), pages 83-98, December.
  53. Jiang, Ping & Li, Ranran & Liu, Ningning & Gao, Yuyang, 2020. "A novel composite electricity demand forecasting framework by data processing and optimized support vector machine," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 260(C).
  54. Guo-Feng Fan & An Wang & Wei-Chiang Hong, 2018. "Combining Grey Model and Self-Adapting Intelligent Grey Model with Genetic Algorithm and Annual Share Changes in Natural Gas Demand Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-21, June.
  55. Feng Jiang & Xue Yang & Shuyu Li, 2018. "Comparison of Forecasting India’s Energy Demand Using an MGM, ARIMA Model, MGM-ARIMA Model, and BP Neural Network Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-17, June.
  56. Wang, Lin & Lv, Sheng-Xiang & Zeng, Yu-Rong, 2018. "Effective sparse adaboost method with ESN and FOA for industrial electricity consumption forecasting in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 1013-1031.
  57. Wang, Xiaoyu & Luo, Dongkun & Zhao, Xu & Sun, Zhu, 2018. "Estimates of energy consumption in China using a self-adaptive multi-verse optimizer-based support vector machine with rolling cross-validation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 539-548.
  58. Fan, Jingjing & Wang, Jianliang & Liu, Mingming & Sun, Wangmin & Lan, Zhixuan, 2022. "Scenario simulations of China's natural gas consumption under the dual-carbon target," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 252(C).
  59. Yuan, Xiao-Chen & Sun, Xun & Zhao, Weigang & Mi, Zhifu & Wang, Bing & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2017. "Forecasting China’s regional energy demand by 2030: A Bayesian approach," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 85-95.
  60. Aysha Malik & Ejaz Hussain & Sofia Baig & Muhammad Fahim Khokhar, 2020. "Forecasting CO2 emissions from energy consumption in Pakistan under different scenarios: The China–Pakistan Economic Corridor," Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 10(2), pages 380-389, April.
  61. Liyan Sun & Zhuoying Wang & Li Yang, 2023. "Research on the Dynamic Coupling and Coordination of Science and Technology Innovation and Sustainable Development in Anhui Province," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-22, February.
  62. Zhou, Wenhao & Li, Hailin & Zhang, Zhiwei, 2022. "A novel seasonal fractional grey model for predicting electricity demand: A case study of Zhejiang in China," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 128-147.
  63. Michal Pavlicko & Mária Vojteková & Oľga Blažeková, 2022. "Forecasting of Electrical Energy Consumption in Slovakia," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-20, February.
  64. Akdi, Yılmaz & Gölveren, Elif & Okkaoğlu, Yasin, 2020. "Daily electrical energy consumption: Periodicity, harmonic regression method and forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
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  70. Wang, Qiang & Song, Xiaoxin, 2019. "Forecasting China's oil consumption: A comparison of novel nonlinear-dynamic grey model (GM), linear GM, nonlinear GM and metabolism GM," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 160-171.
  71. Chen, Yanming & Yao, Mengru & Zhao, Qiqi & Chen, Zhenjie & Jiang, Penghui & Li, Manchun & Chen, Dong, 2021. "Delineation of a basic farmland protection zone based on spatial connectivity and comprehensive quality evaluation: A case study of Changsha City, China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
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  74. Wulfran Fendzi Mbasso & Reagan Jean Jacques Molu & Serge Raoul Dzonde Naoussi & Saatong Kenfack, 2022. "Demand-Supply Forecasting based on Deep Learning for Electricity Balance in Cameroon," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(4), pages 99-103, July.
  75. Myoungsoo Kim & Wonik Choi & Youngjun Jeon & Ling Liu, 2019. "A Hybrid Neural Network Model for Power Demand Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-17, March.
  76. Minglu Ma & Zhuangzhuang Wang, 2019. "Prediction of the Energy Consumption Variation Trend in South Africa based on ARIMA, NGM and NGM-ARIMA Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-15, December.
  77. Xu, Yan & Yu, Qi & Du, Pei & Wang, Jianzhou, 2024. "A paradigm shift in solar energy forecasting: A novel two-phase model for monthly residential consumption," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 305(C).
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  79. Kaytez, Fazil, 2020. "A hybrid approach based on autoregressive integrated moving average and least-square support vector machine for long-term forecasting of net electricity consumption," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
  80. Zhixiong Weng & Yuqi Song & Hao Ma & Zhong Ma & Tingting Liu, 2023. "Forecasting energy demand, structure, and CO2 emission: a case study of Beijing, China," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(9), pages 10369-10391, September.
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  89. Wang, Qiang & Jiang, Feng, 2019. "Integrating linear and nonlinear forecasting techniques based on grey theory and artificial intelligence to forecast shale gas monthly production in Pennsylvania and Texas of the United States," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 781-803.
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