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An Improved Forecasting Method and Application of China’s Energy Consumption under the Carbon Peak Target

Author

Listed:
  • Xiwen Cui

    (School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China
    Beijing Key Laboratory of New Energy and Low-Carbon Development, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China)

  • Shaojun E

    (School of Information Science and Technology, Hebei Agricultural University, Baoding 071001, China)

  • Dongxiao Niu

    (School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China
    Beijing Key Laboratory of New Energy and Low-Carbon Development, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China)

  • Dongyu Wang

    (School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China
    Beijing Key Laboratory of New Energy and Low-Carbon Development, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China)

  • Mingyu Li

    (School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China
    Beijing Key Laboratory of New Energy and Low-Carbon Development, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China)

Abstract

In the process of economic development, the consumption of energy leads to environmental pollution. Environmental pollution affects the sustainable development of the world, and therefore energy consumption needs to be controlled. To help China formulate sustainable development policies, this paper proposes an energy consumption forecasting model based on an improved whale algorithm optimizing a linear support vector regression machine. The model combines multiple optimization methods to overcome the shortcomings of traditional models. This effectively improves the forecasting performance. The results of the projection of China’s future energy consumption data show that current policies are unable to achieve the carbon peak target. This result requires China to develop relevant policies, especially measures related to energy consumption factors, as soon as possible to ensure that China can achieve its peak carbon targets.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiwen Cui & Shaojun E & Dongxiao Niu & Dongyu Wang & Mingyu Li, 2021. "An Improved Forecasting Method and Application of China’s Energy Consumption under the Carbon Peak Target," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-21, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:13:y:2021:i:15:p:8670-:d:607714
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    Cited by:

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    2. Xiwen Cui & Shaojun E & Dongxiao Niu & Bosong Chen & Jiaqi Feng, 2021. "Forecasting of Carbon Emission in China Based on Gradient Boosting Decision Tree Optimized by Modified Whale Optimization Algorithm," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-18, November.
    3. Roman V. Klyuev & Irbek D. Morgoev & Angelika D. Morgoeva & Oksana A. Gavrina & Nikita V. Martyushev & Egor A. Efremenkov & Qi Mengxu, 2022. "Methods of Forecasting Electric Energy Consumption: A Literature Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(23), pages 1-33, November.

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