IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jmathe/v8y2020i10p1722-d424470.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Predicting Primary Energy Consumption Using Hybrid ARIMA and GA-SVR Based on EEMD Decomposition

Author

Listed:
  • Yu-Sheng Kao

    (Department of Technology Management for Innovation, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-8656, Japan)

  • Kazumitsu Nawata

    (Department of Technology Management for Innovation, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-8656, Japan)

  • Chi-Yo Huang

    (Department of Industrial Education, National Taiwan Normal University, Taipei 106, Taiwan)

Abstract

Forecasting energy consumption is not easy because of the nonlinear nature of the time series for energy consumptions, which cannot be accurately predicted by traditional forecasting methods. Therefore, a novel hybrid forecasting framework based on the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) approach and a combination of individual forecasting models is proposed. The hybrid models include the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), the support vector regression (SVR), and the genetic algorithm (GA). The integrated framework, the so-called EEMD-ARIMA-GA-SVR, will be used to predict the primary energy consumption of an economy. An empirical study case based on the Taiwanese consumption of energy will be used to verify the feasibility of the proposed forecast framework. According to the empirical study results, the proposed hybrid framework is feasible. Compared with prediction results derived from other forecasting mechanisms, the proposed framework demonstrates better precisions, but such a hybrid system can also be seen as a basis for energy management and policy definition.

Suggested Citation

  • Yu-Sheng Kao & Kazumitsu Nawata & Chi-Yo Huang, 2020. "Predicting Primary Energy Consumption Using Hybrid ARIMA and GA-SVR Based on EEMD Decomposition," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(10), pages 1-19, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:8:y:2020:i:10:p:1722-:d:424470
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/8/10/1722/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/8/10/1722/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wang, Yuanyuan & Wang, Jianzhou & Zhao, Ge & Dong, Yao, 2012. "Application of residual modification approach in seasonal ARIMA for electricity demand forecasting: A case study of China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 284-294.
    2. Ardakani, F.J. & Ardehali, M.M., 2014. "Long-term electrical energy consumption forecasting for developing and developed economies based on different optimized models and historical data types," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 452-461.
    3. Fumo, Nelson & Rafe Biswas, M.A., 2015. "Regression analysis for prediction of residential energy consumption," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 332-343.
    4. Al-Garni, Ahmed Z. & Zubair, Syed M. & Nizami, Javeed S., 1994. "A regression model for electric-energy-consumption forecasting in Eastern Saudi Arabia," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 19(10), pages 1043-1049.
    5. Pai, Ping-Feng & Lin, Chih-Sheng, 2005. "A hybrid ARIMA and support vector machines model in stock price forecasting," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 497-505, December.
    6. Zhang, Jin-Liang & Zhang, Yue-Jun & Zhang, Lu, 2015. "A novel hybrid method for crude oil price forecasting," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 649-659.
    7. Wong, S.L. & Wan, Kevin K.W. & Lam, Tony N.T., 2010. "Artificial neural networks for energy analysis of office buildings with daylighting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 551-557, February.
    8. Zhu, Suling & Wang, Jianzhou & Zhao, Weigang & Wang, Jujie, 2011. "A seasonal hybrid procedure for electricity demand forecasting in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(11), pages 3807-3815.
    9. Tang, Ling & Yu, Lean & Wang, Shuai & Li, Jianping & Wang, Shouyang, 2012. "A novel hybrid ensemble learning paradigm for nuclear energy consumption forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 432-443.
    10. Lin, Chiun-Sin & Chiu, Sheng-Hsiung & Lin, Tzu-Yu, 2012. "Empirical mode decomposition–based least squares support vector regression for foreign exchange rate forecasting," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2583-2590.
    11. Yuan, Chaoqing & Liu, Sifeng & Fang, Zhigeng, 2016. "Comparison of China's primary energy consumption forecasting by using ARIMA (the autoregressive integrated moving average) model and GM(1,1) model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 384-390.
    12. Fan, Liwei & Pan, Sijia & Li, Zimin & Li, Huiping, 2016. "An ICA-based support vector regression scheme for forecasting crude oil prices," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 245-253.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhao, Lu-Tao & Zheng, Zhi-Yi & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2023. "Forecasting oil inventory changes with Google trends: A hybrid wavelet decomposer and ARDL-SVR ensemble model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shao, Zhen & Chao, Fu & Yang, Shan-Lin & Zhou, Kai-Le, 2017. "A review of the decomposition methodology for extracting and identifying the fluctuation characteristics in electricity demand forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 123-136.
    2. Anca Mehedintu & Mihaela Sterpu & Georgeta Soava, 2018. "Estimation and Forecasts for the Share of Renewable Energy Consumption in Final Energy Consumption by 2020 in the European Union," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-22, May.
    3. Quande Qin & Huangda He & Li Li & Ling-Yun He, 2020. "A Novel Decomposition-Ensemble Based Carbon Price Forecasting Model Integrated with Local Polynomial Prediction," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 55(4), pages 1249-1273, April.
    4. Yuan, Chaoqing & Liu, Sifeng & Fang, Zhigeng, 2016. "Comparison of China's primary energy consumption forecasting by using ARIMA (the autoregressive integrated moving average) model and GM(1,1) model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 384-390.
    5. Wang, Zheng-Xin & Li, Qin & Pei, Ling-Ling, 2018. "A seasonal GM(1,1) model for forecasting the electricity consumption of the primary economic sectors," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 522-534.
    6. Manickavasagam, Jeevananthan & Visalakshmi, S. & Apergis, Nicholas, 2020. "A novel hybrid approach to forecast crude oil futures using intraday data," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    7. Zhu, Bangzhu & Han, Dong & Wang, Ping & Wu, Zhanchi & Zhang, Tao & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2017. "Forecasting carbon price using empirical mode decomposition and evolutionary least squares support vector regression," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 521-530.
    8. Safari, Ali & Davallou, Maryam, 2018. "Oil price forecasting using a hybrid model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 49-58.
    9. Kaboli, S. Hr. Aghay & Selvaraj, J. & Rahim, N.A., 2016. "Long-term electric energy consumption forecasting via artificial cooperative search algorithm," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 115(P1), pages 857-871.
    10. Chou, Jui-Sheng & Ngo, Ngoc-Tri, 2016. "Time series analytics using sliding window metaheuristic optimization-based machine learning system for identifying building energy consumption patterns," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 751-770.
    11. Shen, Meng & Lu, Yujie & Wei, Kua Harn & Cui, Qingbin, 2020. "Prediction of household electricity consumption and effectiveness of concerted intervention strategies based on occupant behaviour and personality traits," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    12. Debnath, Kumar Biswajit & Mourshed, Monjur, 2018. "Forecasting methods in energy planning models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 297-325.
    13. Qin, Quande & Xie, Kangqiang & He, Huangda & Li, Li & Chu, Xianghua & Wei, Yi-Ming & Wu, Teresa, 2019. "An effective and robust decomposition-ensemble energy price forecasting paradigm with local linear prediction," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 402-414.
    14. Liu, Che & Sun, Bo & Zhang, Chenghui & Li, Fan, 2020. "A hybrid prediction model for residential electricity consumption using holt-winters and extreme learning machine," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 275(C).
    15. Kaijian He & Rui Zha & Jun Wu & Kin Keung Lai, 2016. "Multivariate EMD-Based Modeling and Forecasting of Crude Oil Price," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-11, April.
    16. Leung, Philip C.M. & Lee, Eric W.M., 2013. "Estimation of electrical power consumption in subway station design by intelligent approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 634-643.
    17. Sun, Shaolong & Wang, Shouyang & Wei, Yunjie, 2019. "A new multiscale decomposition ensemble approach for forecasting exchange rates," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 49-58.
    18. Ding, Song & Tao, Zui & Zhang, Huahan & Li, Yao, 2022. "Forecasting nuclear energy consumption in China and America: An optimized structure-adaptative grey model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PA).
    19. Pesantez, Jorge E. & Li, Binbin & Lee, Christopher & Zhao, Zhizhen & Butala, Mark & Stillwell, Ashlynn S., 2023. "A Comparison Study of Predictive Models for Electricity Demand in a Diverse Urban Environment," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    20. Zeng, Sheng & Su, Bin & Zhang, Minglong & Gao, Yuan & Liu, Jun & Luo, Song & Tao, Qingmei, 2021. "Analysis and forecast of China's energy consumption structure," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:8:y:2020:i:10:p:1722-:d:424470. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.