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Forecasting the volatility of crude oil futures using HAR-type models with structural breaks
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- Gong, Xu & Lin, Boqiang, 2018. "The incremental information content of investor fear gauge for volatility forecasting in the crude oil futures market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 370-386.
- Li, Yan & Liang, Chao & Ma, Feng & Wang, Jiqian, 2020. "The role of the IDEMV in predicting European stock market volatility during the COVID-19 pandemic," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 36(C).
- Chao Liang & Yin Liao & Feng Ma & Bo Zhu, 2022. "United States Oil Fund volatility prediction: the roles of leverage effect and jumps," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(5), pages 2239-2262, May.
- Asai, Manabu & Gupta, Rangan & McAleer, Michael, 2020.
"Forecasting volatility and co-volatility of crude oil and gold futures: Effects of leverage, jumps, spillovers, and geopolitical risks,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 933-948.
- Manabu Asai & Rangan Gupta & Michael McAleer, 2019. "Forecasting Volatility and Co-volatility of Crude Oil and Gold Futures: Effects of Leverage, Jumps, Spillovers, and Geopolitical Risks," Working Papers 201951, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Fenghua Wen & Jihong Xiao & Chuangxia Huang & Xiaohua Xia, 2018. "Interaction between oil and US dollar exchange rate: nonlinear causality, time-varying influence and structural breaks in volatility," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(3), pages 319-334, January.
- Jin‐Yu Chen & Xue‐Hong Zhu & Mei‐Rui Zhong, 2021. "Time‐varying effects and structural change of oil price shocks on industrial output: Evidence from China's oil industrial chain," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 3460-3472, July.
- Wu, Nan & Wen, Fenghua & Gong, Xu, 2022. "Marionettes behind co-movement of commodity prices: Roles of speculative and hedging activities," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
- Manabu Asai & Rangan Gupta & Michael McAleer, 2019.
"The Impact of Jumps and Leverage in Forecasting the Co-Volatility of Oil and Gold Futures,"
Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(17), pages 1-17, September.
- Manabu Asai & Rangan Gupta & Michael McAleer, 2019. "The Impact of jumps and leverage in forecasting the co-volatility of oil and gold futures," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2019-12, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
- Manabu Asai & Rangan Gupta & Michael McAleer, 2019. "The Impact of Jumps and Leverage in Forecasting the Co-Volatility of Oil and Gold Futures," Working Papers 201925, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Asai, M. & Gupta, R. & McAleer, M.J., 2019. "The Impact of Jumps and Leverage in Forecasting the Co-Volatility of Oil and Gold Futures," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI2019-16, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
- Duan, Yinying & Chen, Wang & Zeng, Qing & Liu, Zhicao, 2018. "Leverage effect, economic policy uncertainty and realized volatility with regime switching," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 493(C), pages 148-154.
- Lin, Boqiang & Chen, Yiyang & Gong, Xu, 2024. "Stress from attention: The relationship between climate change attention and crude oil markets," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).
- He, Zhifang, 2020. "Dynamic impacts of crude oil price on Chinese investor sentiment: Nonlinear causality and time-varying effect," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 131-153.
- Wang, You & Gong, Xu, 2020. "Does financial development have a non-linear impact on energy consumption? Evidence from 30 provinces in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
- Lyócsa, Štefan & Todorova, Neda, 2020. "Trading and non-trading period realized market volatility: Does it matter for forecasting the volatility of US stocks?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 628-645.
- Kunal Saha & Vinodh Madhavan & Chandrashekhar G. R. & David McMillan, 2020. "Pitfalls in long memory research," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 1733280-173, January.
- Ding, Qian & Huang, Jianbai & Chen, Jinyu, 2021. "Dynamic and frequency-domain risk spillovers among oil, gold, and foreign exchange markets: Evidence from implied volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
- Dehua Shen & Andrew Urquhart & Pengfei Wang, 2020. "Forecasting the volatility of Bitcoin: The importance of jumps and structural breaks," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 26(5), pages 1294-1323, November.
- Özbekler, Ali Gencay & Kontonikas, Alexandros & Triantafyllou, Athanasios, 2021.
"Volatility forecasting in European government bond markets,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1691-1709.
- Özbekler, Ali Gencay & Kontonikas, Alexandros & Triantafyllou, Athanasios, 2020. "Volatility Forecasting in European Government Bond Markets," Essex Finance Centre Working Papers 27362, University of Essex, Essex Business School.
- Huang, Jianbai & Tang, Jing & Zhang, Hongwei, 2020. "The effect of investors’ information search behaviors on rebar market return dynamics using high frequency data," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
- Wang, Jiqian & Lu, Xinjie & He, Feng & Ma, Feng, 2020. "Which popular predictor is more useful to forecast international stock markets during the coronavirus pandemic: VIX vs EPU?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
- Dai, Zhifeng & Zhou, Huiting & Wen, Fenghua & He, Shaoyi, 2020. "Efficient predictability of stock return volatility: The role of stock market implied volatility," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
- Wu, Hanlin & Li, Pan & Cao, Jiawei & Xu, Zijian, 2024. "Forecasting the Chinese crude oil futures volatility using jump intensity and Markov-regime switching model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
- Ding, Hui & Huang, Yisu & Wang, Jiqian, 2023. "Have the predictability of oil changed during the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from international stock markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
- Chunlin Luo & Xin Tian & Xiaobing Mao & Qiang Cai, 2018. "Coordinating Supply Chain with Buy-Back Contracts in the Presence of Risk Aversion," Asia-Pacific Journal of Operational Research (APJOR), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 35(02), pages 1-19, April.
- Gaoke Liao & Zhenghui Li & Ziqing Du & Yue Liu, 2019. "The Heterogeneous Interconnections between Supply or Demand Side and Oil Risks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-17, June.
- Lyócsa, Štefan & Molnár, Peter & Todorova, Neda, 2017. "Volatility forecasting of non-ferrous metal futures: Covariances, covariates or combinations?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 228-247.
- Zhang, Xiang & Zhang, Zongyi & Zhou, Han, 2020. "Oil price uncertainty and cash holdings: Evidence from China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
- Tapia, Sebastian & Kristjanpoller, Werner, 2022. "Framework based on multiplicative error and residual analysis to forecast bitcoin intraday-volatility," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 589(C).
- Gong, Xu & Wen, Fenghua & Xia, X.H. & Huang, Jianbai & Pan, Bin, 2017. "Investigating the risk-return trade-off for crude oil futures using high-frequency data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 196(C), pages 152-161.
- Liu, Jing & Ma, Feng & Yang, Ke & Zhang, Yaojie, 2018. "Forecasting the oil futures price volatility: Large jumps and small jumps," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 321-330.
- Mei, Dexiang & Ma, Feng & Liao, Yin & Wang, Lu, 2020. "Geopolitical risk uncertainty and oil future volatility: Evidence from MIDAS models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
- Gong, Xu & Xu, Jun & Liu, Tangyong & Zhou, Zicheng, 2022. "Dynamic volatility connectedness between industrial metal markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
- Jihong Xiao & Xuehong Zhu & Chuangxia Huang & Xiaoguang Yang & Fenghua Wen & Meirui Zhong, 2019. "A New Approach for Stock Price Analysis and Prediction Based on SSA and SVM," International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making (IJITDM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 18(01), pages 287-310, January.
- Hyeon-Seok Kim & Hui-Sang Kim & Sun-Yong Choi, 2024. "Investigating the Impact of Agricultural, Financial, Economic, and Political Factors on Oil Forward Prices and Volatility: A SHAP Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(5), pages 1-24, February.
- Luo, Jiawen & Ji, Qiang & Klein, Tony & Todorova, Neda & Zhang, Dayong, 2020. "On realized volatility of crude oil futures markets: Forecasting with exogenous predictors under structural breaks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
- Liu, Yue & Sun, Huaping & Zhang, Jijian & Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad, 2020. "Detection of volatility regime-switching for crude oil price modeling and forecasting," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
- Chao Liang & Yaojie Zhang & Xiafei Li & Feng Ma, 2022. "Which predictor is more predictive for Bitcoin volatility? And why?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 1947-1961, April.
- Luo, Jiawen & Klein, Tony & Ji, Qiang & Hou, Chenghan, 2022. "Forecasting realized volatility of agricultural commodity futures with infinite Hidden Markov HAR models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 51-73.
- Gong, Xu & Wang, You & Lin, Boqiang, 2021. "Assessing dynamic China’s energy security: Based on functional data analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
- Tangyong Liu & Xu Gong & Boqiang Lin, 2021. "Analyzing the frequency dynamics of volatility spillovers across precious and industrial metal markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(9), pages 1375-1396, September.
- Lyócsa, Štefan & Molnár, Peter, 2018. "Exploiting dependence: Day-ahead volatility forecasting for crude oil and natural gas exchange-traded funds," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 462-473.
- Xu Gong & Boqiang Lin, 2018. "Structural breaks and volatility forecasting in the copper futures market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(3), pages 290-339, March.
- Hasanov, Akram Shavkatovich & Shaiban, Mohammed Sharaf & Al-Freedi, Ajab, 2020. "Forecasting volatility in the petroleum futures markets: A re-examination and extension," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
- Joo, Young C. & Park, Sung Y., 2021. "The impact of oil price volatility on stock markets: Evidences from oil-importing countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
- Demirer, Riza & Gupta, Rangan & Pierdzioch, Christian & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain, 2020.
"The predictive power of oil price shocks on realized volatility of oil: A note,"
Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
- Riza Demirer & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch & Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad, 2020. "The Predictive Power of Oil Price Shocks on Realized Volatility of Oil: A Note," Working Papers 202044, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Li, Wenlan & Cheng, Yuxiang & Fang, Qiang, 2020. "Forecast on silver futures linked with structural breaks and day-of-the-week effect," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
- Liu, Hong & Wang, Chang & Tian, Meiyu & Wen, Fenghua, 2019. "Analysis of regional difference decomposition of changes in energy consumption in China during 1995–2015," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 1139-1149.
- Zhu, Xuehong & Zhang, Hongwei & Zhong, Meirui, 2017. "Volatility forecasting using high frequency data: The role of after-hours information and leverage effects," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 58-70.
- Wang, Xunxiao & Wang, Yudong, 2019. "Volatility spillovers between crude oil and Chinese sectoral equity markets: Evidence from a frequency dynamics perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 995-1009.
- Qin, Yun & Chen, Jinyu & Dong, Xuesong, 2021. "Oil prices, policy uncertainty and travel and leisure stocks in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
- Luo, Jiawen & Demirer, Riza & Gupta, Rangan & Ji, Qiang, 2022.
"Forecasting oil and gold volatilities with sentiment indicators under structural breaks,"
Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
- Jiawen Luo & Riza Demirer & Rangan Gupta & Qiang Ji, 2021. "Forecasting Oil and Gold Volatilities with Sentiment Indicators Under Structural Breaks," Working Papers 202130, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Maki, Daiki & Ota, Yasushi, 2021. "Impacts of asymmetry on forecasting realized volatility in Japanese stock markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
- Wen, Fenghua & Zhang, Keli & Gong, Xu, 2021. "The effects of oil price shocks on inflation in the G7 countries," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
- Luo, Changqing & Liu, Lan & Wang, Da, 2021. "Multiscale financial risk contagion between international stock markets: Evidence from EMD-Copula-CoVaR analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
- Baruník, Jozef & Vácha, Lukáš, 2024.
"Predicting the volatility of major energy commodity prices: The dynamic persistence model,"
Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
- Jozef Barunik & Lukas Vacha, 2024. "Predicting the volatility of major energy commodity prices: the dynamic persistence model," Papers 2402.01354, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2024.
- Zhang, Yue-Jun & Zhang, Han, 2023. "Volatility forecasting of crude oil futures market: Which structural change-based HAR models have better performance?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
- Gong, Xu & Lin, Boqiang, 2019. "Modeling stock market volatility using new HAR-type models," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 516(C), pages 194-211.
- Jiqian Wang & Feng Ma & Chao Liang & Zhonglu Chen, 2022. "Volatility forecasting revisited using Markov‐switching with time‐varying probability transition," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 1387-1400, January.
- Pham, Son Duy & Nguyen, Thao Thac Thanh & Do, Hung Xuan, 2022. "Dynamic volatility connectedness between thermal coal futures and major cryptocurrencies: Evidence from China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
- Yaojie Zhang & Mengxi He & Yuqi Zhao & Xianfeng Hao, 2023. "Predicting stock realized variance based on an asymmetric robust regression approach," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 75(4), pages 1022-1047, October.
- Yingrui Zhou & Taiyong Li & Jiayi Shi & Zijie Qian, 2019. "A CEEMDAN and XGBOOST-Based Approach to Forecast Crude Oil Prices," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2019, pages 1-15, February.
- Xiao, Jihong & Hu, Chunyan & Ouyang, Guangda & Wen, Fenghua, 2019. "Impacts of oil implied volatility shocks on stock implied volatility in China: Empirical evidence from a quantile regression approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 297-309.
- Tian, Meiyu & Li, Wanyang & Wen, Fenghua, 2021. "The dynamic impact of oil price shocks on the stock market and the USD/RMB exchange rate: Evidence from implied volatility indices," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
- Chu, Gang & Zhang, Wei & Sun, Guofeng & Zhang, Xiaotao, 2019. "A new online portfolio selection algorithm based on Kalman Filter and anti-correlation," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 536(C).
- Xiao, Jihong & Wen, Fenghua & Zhao, Yupei & Wang, Xiong, 2021. "The role of US implied volatility index in forecasting Chinese stock market volatility: Evidence from HAR models," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 311-333.
- Fei Lu & Feng Ma & Elie Bouri, 2024. "Stock market volatility predictability: new evidence from energy consumption," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-17, December.
- Zhu, Xuehong & Liao, Jianhui & Chen, Ying, 2021. "Time-varying effects of oil price shocks and economic policy uncertainty on the nonferrous metals industry: From the perspective of industrial security," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
- Chen, Jinyu & Zhu, Xuehong & Li, Hailing, 2020. "The pass-through effects of oil price shocks on China's inflation: A time-varying analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
- Taiyong Li & Yingrui Zhou & Xinsheng Li & Jiang Wu & Ting He, 2019. "Forecasting Daily Crude Oil Prices Using Improved CEEMDAN and Ridge Regression-Based Predictors," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(19), pages 1-25, September.
- Gong, Xu & Lin, Boqiang, 2018. "Structural changes and out-of-sample prediction of realized range-based variance in the stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 494(C), pages 27-39.
- Liang, Chao & Luo, Qin & Li, Yan & Huynh, Luu Duc Toan, 2023. "Global financial stress index and long-term volatility forecast for international stock markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
- Xie, Nan & Wang, Zongrun & Chen, Sicen & Gong, Xu, 2019. "Forecasting downside risk in China’s stock market based on high-frequency data," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 517(C), pages 530-541.
- Chen, Jinyu & Huang, Yuxin & Ren, Xiaohang & Qu, Jingxiao, 2022. "Time-varying spillovers between trade policy uncertainty and precious metal markets: Evidence from China-US trade conflict," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
- Xu Gong & Yujing Jin & Chuanwang Sun, 2022. "Time‐varying pure contagion effect between energy and nonenergy commodity markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(10), pages 1960-1986, October.
- Xing, Jieli & Zhang, Yongjie & Chu, Gang & Pan, Qi & Zhang, Xiaotao, 2021. "Detection and reconstruction of catastrophic breaks of high-frequency financial data with local linear scaling approximation," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 561(C).
- Gong, Xu & Lin, Boqiang, 2018. "Time-varying effects of oil supply and demand shocks on China's macro-economy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 424-437.
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- Lixin Tian & Huan Chen & Zaili Zhen, 2018. "Research on the forward-looking behavior judgment of heating oil price evolution based on complex networks," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(9), pages 1-18, September.
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- Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George, 2017.
"Forecasting oil price realized volatility using information channels from other asset classes,"
Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 28-49.
- Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George, 2017. "Forecasting oil price realized volatility using information channels from other asset classes," MPRA Paper 96276, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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- Lyócsa, Štefan & Todorova, Neda, 2021. "What drives volatility of the U.S. oil and gas firms?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
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- Libo Yin, 2022. "The role of intermediary capital risk in predicting oil volatility," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 401-416, January.
- Liu, Jing & Ma, Feng & Tang, Yingkai & Zhang, Yaojie, 2019. "Geopolitical risk and oil volatility: A new insight," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
- Ji‐Eun Choi & Dong Wan Shin, 2018. "Forecasts for leverage heterogeneous autoregressive models with jumps and other covariates," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(6), pages 691-704, September.
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- Shihui Tian & Guowei Hua & T. C. E. Cheng, 2019. "Optimal Deployment of Charging Piles for Electric Vehicles Under the Indirect Network Effects," Asia-Pacific Journal of Operational Research (APJOR), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 36(01), pages 1-17, February.
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- Wang, TianTian & Zhang, Dayong & Clive Broadstock, David, 2019. "Financialization, fundamentals, and the time-varying determinants of US natural gas prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 707-719.
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