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Time-varying spillovers between trade policy uncertainty and precious metal markets: Evidence from China-US trade conflict

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  • Chen, Jinyu
  • Huang, Yuxin
  • Ren, Xiaohang
  • Qu, Jingxiao

Abstract

Using a time-varying vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model combined with a spillover index, we study the dynamic spillovers between trade policy uncertainty (TPU) and precious metal markets during the Sino-US trade war. The results show obvious spillover effects between the Chinese TPU and American TPU and the precious metal markets, and the strength and direction of the spillover effects are time-varying and asymmetrical. The uncertainty of the Sino-US trade policy has a heterogeneous impact on the precious metal markets. American TPU dominates the markets, followed by Chinese TPU. In the face of trade war conflict, the spillover fluctuation of American TPU to Chinese TPU is very significant. In addition, in the face of trade policy uncertainty, gold and silver have strong self-adjustment abilities and stabilities, making them highly suitable for hedging investments. International investors and policymakers should consider the impacts of international trade policy uncertainty when conducting risk monitoring and building portfolios in precious metal markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Jinyu & Huang, Yuxin & Ren, Xiaohang & Qu, Jingxiao, 2022. "Time-varying spillovers between trade policy uncertainty and precious metal markets: Evidence from China-US trade conflict," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:76:y:2022:i:c:s0301420722000289
    DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2022.102577
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