IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finana/v77y2021ics1057521921001563.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Dynamic spillovers across oil, gold and stock markets in the presence of major public health emergencies

Author

Listed:
  • Liao, Jianhui
  • Zhu, Xuehong
  • Chen, Jinyu

Abstract

Extreme events have a systemic impact on global financial markets, leading to significant cross-market spillovers in the oil, gold, and stock markets and raising widespread concerns about market linkages and risk contagion. In this paper, with a focus on both return and volatility, a frontier spillover network analysis is used to examine the strength and scale characteristics of spillovers in the oil, gold and stock markets under major public health emergency shocks. In addition, the paper adopts a marginal spillover and network analysis to evaluate linkage relationships, risk sources and transmission paths in the oil, gold, and stock markets during such events. The results show that the return and volatility spillover effects generated across the oil, gold, and stock markets are significant, with return spillovers being more stable and volatility spillovers being highly sensitive to emergencies. Meanwhile, the COVID-19 pandemic has displayed the strongest return and volatility spillovers. The high intensity of the shocks during the COVID-19 period has changed the usual characteristics of the market, with the gold market becoming the risk receiver and the oil market becoming risk sources.

Suggested Citation

  • Liao, Jianhui & Zhu, Xuehong & Chen, Jinyu, 2021. "Dynamic spillovers across oil, gold and stock markets in the presence of major public health emergencies," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:77:y:2021:i:c:s1057521921001563
    DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2021.101822
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1057521921001563
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.irfa.2021.101822?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jain, Anshul & Biswal, P.C., 2016. "Dynamic linkages among oil price, gold price, exchange rate, and stock market in India," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 179-185.
    2. Hoang, Thi Hong Van & Lahiani, Amine & Heller, David, 2016. "Is gold a hedge against inflation? New evidence from a nonlinear ARDL approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 54-66.
    3. P. Hartmann & S. Straetmans & C. G. de Vries, 2004. "Asset Market Linkages in Crisis Periods," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(1), pages 313-326, February.
    4. Topcu, Mert & Gulal, Omer Serkan, 2020. "The impact of COVID-19 on emerging stock markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 36(C).
    5. Bonato, Matteo & Gupta, Rangan & Lau, Chi Keung Marco & Wang, Shixuan, 2020. "Moments-based spillovers across gold and oil markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    6. Geng, Jiang-Bo & Du, Ya-Juan & Ji, Qiang & Zhang, Dayong, 2021. "Modeling return and volatility spillover networks of global new energy companies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    7. Diebold, Francis X. & Yılmaz, Kamil, 2014. "On the network topology of variance decompositions: Measuring the connectedness of financial firms," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 182(1), pages 119-134.
    8. Mensi, Walid & Sensoy, Ahmet & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2020. "Impact of COVID-19 outbreak on asymmetric multifractality of gold and oil prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    9. Wen, Fenghua & Wu, Nan & Gong, Xu, 2020. "China's carbon emissions trading and stock returns," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    10. Jong-Wha Lee & Warwick J. McKibbin, 2004. "Globalization and Disease: The Case of SARS," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 3(1), pages 113-131.
    11. Aye, Goodness C. & Carcel, Hector & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Gupta, Rangan, 2017. "Does gold act as a hedge against inflation in the UK? Evidence from a fractional cointegration approach over 1257 to 2016," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 53-57.
    12. Semei Coronado, Rebeca Jiménez-Rodrguez, and Omar Rojas, 2018. "An Empirical Analysis of the Relationships between Crude Oil, Gold and Stock Markets," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I).
    13. Al-Awadhi, Abdullah M. & Alsaifi, Khaled & Al-Awadhi, Ahmad & Alhammadi, Salah, 2020. "Death and contagious infectious diseases: Impact of the COVID-19 virus on stock market returns," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    14. Ashfaq, Saleha & Tang, Yong & Maqbool, Rashid, 2019. "Volatility spillover impact of world oil prices on leading Asian energy exporting and importing economies’ stock returns," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    15. Balli, Faruk & de Bruin, Anne & Chowdhury, Md Iftekhar Hasan, 2019. "Spillovers and the determinants in Islamic equity markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    16. Wen, Fenghua & Gong, Xu & Cai, Shenghua, 2016. "Forecasting the volatility of crude oil futures using HAR-type models with structural breaks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 400-413.
    17. Dimitrios Kartsonakis-Mademlis & Nikolaos Dritsakis, 2020. "Does the Choice of the Multivariate GARCH Model on Volatility Spillovers Matter? Evidence from Oil Prices and Stock Markets in G7 Countries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(5), pages 164-182.
    18. Batten, Jonathan A. & Kinateder, Harald & Szilagyi, Peter G. & Wagner, Niklas F., 2019. "Time-varying energy and stock market integration in Asia," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 777-792.
    19. Joscha Beckmann & Robert Czudaj, 2013. "Oil and gold price dynamics in a multivariate cointegration framework," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 10(3), pages 453-468, September.
    20. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    21. Ji, Qiang & Fan, Ying, 2016. "Modelling the joint dynamics of oil prices and investor fear gauge," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 242-251.
    22. Gyu-Hyen Moon & Wei-Choun Yu, 2010. "Volatility Spillovers between the US and China Stock Markets: Structural Break Test with Symmetric and Asymmetric GARCH Approaches," Global Economic Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(2), pages 129-149.
    23. Wen, Danyan & Wang, Gang-Jin & Ma, Chaoqun & Wang, Yudong, 2019. "Risk spillovers between oil and stock markets: A VAR for VaR analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 524-535.
    24. Zhang, Wenting & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2021. "Crude oil market and stock markets during the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from the US, Japan, and Germany," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    25. Kim, Won Joong & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Hyun, Jun Seog & Gupta, Rangan, 2017. "Oil price shocks and China's economy: Reactions of the monetary policy to oil price shocks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 61-69.
    26. Wen, Danyan & Wang, Yudong & Ma, Chaoqun & Zhang, Yaojie, 2020. "Information transmission between gold and financial assets: Mean, volatility, or risk spillovers?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    27. Filis, George & Degiannakis, Stavros & Floros, Christos, 2011. "Dynamic correlation between stock market and oil prices: The case of oil-importing and oil-exporting countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 152-164, June.
    28. Yaya, OlaOluwa S. & Tumala, Mohammed M. & Udomboso, Christopher G., 2016. "Volatility persistence and returns spillovers between oil and gold prices: Analysis before and after the global financial crisis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 273-281.
    29. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Aye, Goodness C. & Gupta, Rangan & Gkillas, Konstantinos, 2020. "Gold-oil dependence dynamics and the role of geopolitical risks: Evidence from a Markov-switching time-varying copula model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    30. White, Halbert & Kim, Tae-Hwan & Manganelli, Simone, 2015. "VAR for VaR: Measuring tail dependence using multivariate regression quantiles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 187(1), pages 169-188.
    31. Wen, Fenghua & Zhao, Lili & He, Shaoyi & Yang, Guozheng, 2020. "Asymmetric relationship between carbon emission trading market and stock market: Evidences from China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    32. Nicholas Apergis & Christina Christou & James E. Payne, 2014. "Precious metal markets, stock markets and the macroeconomic environment: a FAVAR model approach," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(10), pages 691-703, May.
    33. Salisu, Afees A. & Isah, Kazeem O., 2017. "Revisiting the oil price and stock market nexus: A nonlinear Panel ARDL approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 258-271.
    34. Thi Hong Van Hoang & Amine Lahiani & David Heller, 2016. "Is gold a hedge against inflation? New evidence from a nonlinear ARDL approach," Post-Print hal-02012307, HAL.
    35. Kang, Sang Hoon & Lee, Jang Woo, 2019. "The network connectedness of volatility spillovers across global futures markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 526(C).
    36. Kinateder, Harald & Campbell, Ross & Choudhury, Tonmoy, 2021. "Safe haven in GFC versus COVID-19: 100 turbulent days in the financial markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
    37. Hung, Ngo Thai & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2021. "Directional spillover effects and time-frequency nexus between oil, gold and stock markets: Evidence from pre and during COVID-19 outbreak," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    38. Sharif, Arshian & Aloui, Chaker & Yarovaya, Larisa, 2020. "COVID-19 pandemic, oil prices, stock market, geopolitical risk and policy uncertainty nexus in the US economy: Fresh evidence from the wavelet-based approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    39. Wang, Yudong & Guo, Zhuangyue, 2018. "The dynamic spillover between carbon and energy markets: New evidence," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 24-33.
    40. Lin, Ling & Kuang, Yuanpei & Jiang, Yong & Su, Xianfang, 2019. "Assessing risk contagion among the Brent crude oil market, London gold market and stock markets: Evidence based on a new wavelet decomposition approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    41. Hussain Shahzad, Syed Jawad & Bouri, Elie & Roubaud, David & Kristoufek, Ladislav, 2020. "Safe haven, hedge and diversification for G7 stock markets: Gold versus bitcoin," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 212-224.
    42. Ichev, Riste & Marinč, Matej, 2018. "Stock prices and geographic proximity of information: Evidence from the Ebola outbreak," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 153-166.
    43. Aguilera, Roberto F. & Radetzki, Marian, 2017. "The synchronized and exceptional price performance of oil and gold: Explanations and prospects," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 81-87.
    44. Chen, Jinyu & Zhu, Xuehong & Li, Hailing, 2020. "The pass-through effects of oil price shocks on China's inflation: A time-varying analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    45. Di Maggio, Marco & Kermani, Amir & Song, Zhaogang, 2017. "The value of trading relations in turbulent times," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(2), pages 266-284.
    46. Ji, Qiang & Zhang, Dayong & Zhao, Yuqian, 2020. "Searching for safe-haven assets during the COVID-19 pandemic," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    47. Wang, Xunxiao & Wang, Yudong, 2019. "Volatility spillovers between crude oil and Chinese sectoral equity markets: Evidence from a frequency dynamics perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 995-1009.
    48. Wang, Xunxiao, 2020. "Frequency dynamics of volatility spillovers among crude oil and international stock markets: The role of the interest rate," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    49. Lau, Marco Chi Keung & Vigne, Samuel A. & Wang, Shixuan & Yarovaya, Larisa, 2017. "Return spillovers between white precious metal ETFs: The role of oil, gold, and global equity," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 316-332.
    50. Qin, Yun & Hong, Kairong & Chen, Jinyu & Zhang, Zitao, 2020. "Asymmetric effects of geopolitical risks on energy returns and volatility under different market conditions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    51. Ashraf, Badar Nadeem, 2020. "Stock markets’ reaction to COVID-19: Cases or fatalities?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    52. Xiao, Jihong & Hu, Chunyan & Ouyang, Guangda & Wen, Fenghua, 2019. "Impacts of oil implied volatility shocks on stock implied volatility in China: Empirical evidence from a quantile regression approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 297-309.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ding, Qian & Huang, Jianbai & Chen, Jinyu, 2021. "Dynamic and frequency-domain risk spillovers among oil, gold, and foreign exchange markets: Evidence from implied volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    2. Mensi, Walid & Al Rababa'a, Abdel Razzaq & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2021. "Asymmetric spillover and network connectedness between crude oil, gold, and Chinese sector stock markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    3. Ghaemi Asl, Mahdi & Adekoya, Oluwasegun Babatunde & Rashidi, Muhammad Mahdi & Ghasemi Doudkanlou, Mohammad & Dolatabadi, Ali, 2022. "Forecast of Bayesian-based dynamic connectedness between oil market and Islamic stock indices of Islamic oil-exporting countries: Application of the cascade-forward backpropagation network," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    4. Huang, Jianbai & Dong, Xuesong & Chen, Jinyu & Zhong, Meirui, 2022. "Do oil prices and economic policy uncertainty matter for precious metal returns? New insights from a TVP-VAR framework," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 433-445.
    5. Liu, Zixin & Hu, Jun & Zhang, Shuguang & He, Zhipeng, 2024. "Risk spillovers among oil, gold, stock, and foreign exchange markets: Evidence from G20 economies," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    6. Zhang, Hua & Chen, Jinyu & Shao, Liuguo, 2021. "Dynamic spillovers between energy and stock markets and their implications in the context of COVID-19," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    7. Yousaf, Imran & Beljid, Makram & Chaibi, Anis & Ajlouni, Ahmed AL, 2022. "Do volatility spillover and hedging among GCC stock markets and global factors vary from normal to turbulent periods? Evidence from the global financial crisis and Covid-19 pandemic crisis," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    8. Cui, Jinxin & Goh, Mark & Li, Binlin & Zou, Huiwen, 2021. "Dynamic dependence and risk connectedness among oil and stock markets: New evidence from time-frequency domain perspectives," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    9. Liu, Zhenhua & Shi, Xunpeng & Zhai, Pengxiang & Wu, Shan & Ding, Zhihua & Zhou, Yuqin, 2021. "Tail risk connectedness in the oil-stock nexus: Evidence from a novel quantile spillover approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    10. Mensi, Walid & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2022. "COVID-19 pandemic’s impact on intraday volatility spillover between oil, gold, and stock markets," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 702-715.
    11. Dai, Zhifeng & Zhu, Haoyang, 2023. "Dynamic risk spillover among crude oil, economic policy uncertainty and Chinese financial sectors," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 421-450.
    12. Qin, Yun & Chen, Jinyu & Dong, Xuesong, 2021. "Oil prices, policy uncertainty and travel and leisure stocks in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    13. Golitsis, Petros & Gkasis, Pavlos & Bellos, Sotirios K., 2022. "Dynamic spillovers and linkages between gold, crude oil, S&P 500, and other economic and financial variables. Evidence from the USA," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    14. Mohd Ziaur Rehman & Shabeer Khan & Ghulam Abbas & Mohammed Alhashim, 2023. "Novel COVID-19 Outbreak and Global Uncertainty in the Top-10 Affected Countries: Evidence from Wavelet Coherence Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-20, March.
    15. Xie, Qichang & Bai, Yu & Jia, Nanfei & Xu, Xin, 2024. "Do macroprudential policies reduce risk spillovers between energy markets?: Evidence from time-frequency domain and mixed-frequency methods," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    16. Zhu, Xuehong & Niu, Zibo & Zhang, Hongwei & Huang, Jiaxin & Zuo, Xuguang, 2022. "Can gold and bitcoin hedge against the COVID-19 related news sentiment risk? New evidence from a NARDL approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    17. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Karikari, Nana Kwasi & Gil-Alana, Luis Alberiko, 2022. "The outbreak of COVID-19 and stock market liquidity: Evidence from emerging and developed equity markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    18. Dong, Zibing & Li, Yanshuang & Zhuang, Xintian & Wang, Jian, 2022. "Impacts of COVID-19 on global stock sectors: Evidence from time-varying connectedness and asymmetric nexus analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    19. Mukhriz Izraf Azman Aziz & Norzalina Ahmad & Jin Zichu & Safwan Mohd Nor, 2022. "The Impact of COVID-19 on the Connectedness of Stock Index in ASEAN+3 Economies," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-22, April.
    20. Ali, Syed Riaz Mahmood & Mensi, Walid & Anik, Kaysul Islam & Rahman, Mishkatur & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2022. "The impacts of COVID-19 crisis on spillovers between the oil and stock markets: Evidence from the largest oil importers and exporters," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 345-372.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:77:y:2021:i:c:s1057521921001563. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620166 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.