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Conditional Forecasts and Scenario Analysis with Vector Autoregressions for Large Cross-Sections
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Cited by:
- Olga Korotkikh, 2020. "A Multi-Country BVAR Model for the External Sector," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 79(4), pages 98-112, December.
- Simona Delle Chiaie & Laurent Ferrara & Domenico Giannone, 2022.
"Common factors of commodity prices,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(3), pages 461-476, April.
- Delle Chiaie, Simona & Ferrara, Laurent & Giannone, Domenico, 2018. "Common factors of commodity prices," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 51.
- S. Delle Chiaie & L. Ferrara & D. Giannone, 2017. "Common Factors of Commodity Prices," Working papers 645, Banque de France.
- Giannone, Domenico & Ferrara, Laurent & Delle Chiaie, Simona, 2018. "Common Factors of Commodity Prices," CEPR Discussion Papers 12767, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Delle Chiaie, Simona & Ferrara, Laurent & Giannone, Domenico, 2017. "Common factors of commodity prices," Working Paper Series 2112, European Central Bank.
- Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2019.
"Money, Credit, Monetary Policy, and the Business Cycle in the Euro Area: What Has Changed Since the Crisis?,"
International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 15(5), pages 137-173, December.
- Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2019. "Money, credit, monetary policy and the business cycle in the euro area: what has changed since the crisis?," Working Paper Series 2226, European Central Bank.
- Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2019. "Money, credit, monetary policy, and the business cycle in the euro area: what has changed since the crisis?," Staff Reports 885, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Ekaterina Pirozhkova & Nicola Viegi, 2023.
"Changing the inflation target in emerging markets: the reward of reducing risk,"
Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 43(3), pages 1453-1457.
- Ekaterina Pirozhkova & Nicola Viegi, 2023. "Changing the inflation target in emerging markets: the reward of reducing risk," Post-Print hal-04723605, HAL.
- Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Matteo Luciani & Michele Modugno, 2024. "Lessons from nowcasting GDP across the world," Chapters, in: Michael P. Clements & Ana Beatriz Galvão (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Macroeconomic Forecasting, chapter 8, pages 187-217, Edward Elgar Publishing.
- Deryugina, Elena & Ponomarenko, Alexey, 2014.
"A large Bayesian vector autoregression model for Russia,"
BOFIT Discussion Papers
22/2014, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
- Elena Deryugina & Alexey Ponomarenko, 2015. "A large Bayesian vector autoregression model for Russia," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps1, Bank of Russia.
- Bańbura, Marta & Leiva-León, Danilo & Menz, Jan-Oliver, 2021.
"Do inflation expectations improve model-based inflation forecasts?,"
Discussion Papers
48/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
- Bańbura, Marta & Leiva-Leon, Danilo & Menz, Jan-Oliver, 2021. "Do inflation expectations improve model-based inflation forecasts?," Working Paper Series 2604, European Central Bank.
- Marta Bañbura & Danilo Leiva-León & Jan-Oliver Menz, 2021. "Do inflation expectations improve model-based inflation Forecasts?," Working Papers 2138, Banco de España.
- Caruso, Alberto & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Ricco, Giovanni, 2019.
"Financial and fiscal interaction in the Euro Area crisis: This time was different,"
European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 333-355.
- Caruso, Alberto & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Ricco, Giovanni, 2018. "Financial and Fiscal Interaction in the Euro Area Crisis : This Time was Different," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1167, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- Alberto Caruso & Lucrezia Reichlin & Giovanni Ricco, 2019. "Financial and fiscal interaction in the euro area crisis: this time was different," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03403269, HAL.
- Alberto Caruso & Lucrezia Reichlin & Giovanni Ricco, 2019. "Financial and fiscal interaction in the Euro Area crisis: This time was different," Post-Print hal-03403613, HAL.
- Reichlin, Lucrezia & Caruso, Alberto & Ricco, Giovanni, 2018. "Financial and Fiscal Interaction in the Euro Area Crisis: This Time was Different," CEPR Discussion Papers 13016, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Albert Caruso & Lucrezia Reichlin & Giovanni Ricco, 2019. "Financial and fiscal interaction in the euro area crisis : this time was different," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2019-11, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
- Alberto Caruso & Lucrezia Reichlin & Giovanni Ricco, 2019. "Financial and fiscal interaction in the Euro Area crisis: This time was different," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03403613, HAL.
- Alberto Caruso & Lucrezia Reichlin & Giovanni Ricco, 2019. "Financial and fiscal interaction in the euro area crisis: this time was different," Working Papers hal-03403269, HAL.
- Anastasios Evgenidis & Stephanos Papadamou, 2021. "The impact of unconventional monetary policy in the euro area. Structural and scenario analysis from a Bayesian VAR," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 5684-5703, October.
- Danilo Leiva-Leon & Luis Uzeda, 2023.
"Endogenous Time Variation in Vector Autoregressions,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 105(1), pages 125-142, January.
- Danilo Leiva-Leon & Luis Uzeda, 2020. "Endogenous Time Variation in Vector Autoregressions," Staff Working Papers 20-16, Bank of Canada.
- Danilo Leiva-Leon & Luis Uzeda, 2021. "Endogenous time variation in vector autoregressions," Working Papers 2108, Banco de España.
- repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/4u5amfvji89k4pj64fk8bf01dm is not listed on IDEAS
- Antonello D’Agostino & Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Michele Modugno, 2016.
"Nowcasting Business Cycles: A Bayesian Approach to Dynamic Heterogeneous Factor Models,"
Advances in Econometrics, in: Dynamic Factor Models, volume 35, pages 569-594,
Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
- Antonello D'Agostino & Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Michele Modugno, 2015. "Nowcasting Business Cycles: a Bayesian Approach to Dynamic Heterogeneous Factor Models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-66, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Timo Wollmershäuser & Marcell Göttert & Christian Grimme & Stefan Lautenbacher & Robert Lehmann & Sebastian Link & Manuel Menkhoff & Sascha Möhrle & Ann-Christin Rathje & Magnus Reif & Pauliina Sandqv, 2020. "ifo Konjunkturprognose Winter 2020: Das Coronavirus schlägt zurück – erneuter Shutdown bremst Konjunktur ein zweites Mal aus," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 73(Sonderaus), pages 03-61, December.
- Ngomba Bodi, Francis Ghislain & Bikai, Landry, 2019. "Les prévisions conditionnelles sont-elles plus précises que les prévisions inconditionnelles dans les projections de croissance et d’inflation en zone CEMAC ? [Should conditional forecasts of infla," MPRA Paper 116432, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- William W. Chow & Michael K. Fung, 2021. "The effects of macroprudential policy on Hong Kong’s housing market: a multivariate ordered probit-augmented vector autoregressive approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(2), pages 633-660, February.
- Berg, Tim O. & Henzel, Steffen R., 2015.
"Point and density forecasts for the euro area using Bayesian VARs,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1067-1095.
- Berg, Tim Oliver & Henzel, Steffen, 2013. "Point and Density Forecasts for the Euro Area Using Many Predictors: Are Large BVARs Really Superior?," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79783, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- Tim Oliver Berg & Steffen Henzel, 2013. "Point and Density Forecasts for the Euro Area Using Many Predictors: Are Large BVARs Really Superior?," ifo Working Paper Series 155, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
- Tim Oliver Berg & Steffen Henzel, 2014. "Point and Density Forecasts for the Euro Area Using Bayesian VARs," CESifo Working Paper Series 4711, CESifo.
- Byoung Hark Yoo, 2023. "Conditional Forecasting With a Bayesian Vector Autoregression: Working Paper 2023-08," Working Papers 59629, Congressional Budget Office.
- Knut Are Aastveit & Hilde C. Bjornland & Jamie L. Cross & Helene Olsen Kalstad, 2024.
"Unveiling inflation: Oil Shocks, Supply Chain Pressures, and Expectations,"
CAMA Working Papers
2024-68, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Knut Are Aastveit & Hilde C. Bjørnland & Jamie L. Cross & Helene Olsen, 2024. "Unveiling inflation: Oil Shocks, Supply Chain Pressures, and Expectations," Working Papers No 05/2024, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
- Sebastian Ankargren & Mårten Bjellerup & Hovick Shahnazarian, 2017. "The importance of the financial system for the real economy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(4), pages 1553-1586, December.
- Marco Del Negro & Michele Lenza & Giorgio E. Primiceri & Andrea Tambalotti, 2020.
"What's Up with the Phillips Curve?,"
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 51(1 (Spring), pages 301-373.
- Del Negro, Marco & Lenza, Michele & Primiceri, Giorgio E. & Tambalotti, Andrea, 2020. "What’s up with the Phillips Curve?," Working Paper Series 2435, European Central Bank.
- William Chen & Marco Del Negro & Michele Lenza & Giorgio E. Primiceri & Andrea Tambalotti, 2020. "What’s Up with the Phillips Curve?," Liberty Street Economics 20200918a, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Primiceri, Giorgio & Del Negro, Marco & Lenza, Michele & Tambalotti, Andrea, 2020. "What's up with the Phillips Curve?," CEPR Discussion Papers 14583, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Marco Del Negro & Michele Lenza & Giorgio E. Primiceri & Andrea Tambalotti, 2020. "What’s up with the Phillips Curve?," NBER Working Papers 27003, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Michal Franta & David Havrlant & Marek Rusnák, 2016.
"Forecasting Czech GDP Using Mixed-Frequency Data Models,"
Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 12(2), pages 165-185, December.
- Michal Franta & David Havrlant & Marek Rusnak, 2014. "Forecasting Czech GDP Using Mixed-Frequency Data Models," Working Papers 2014/08, Czech National Bank.
- Tallman, Ellis W. & Zaman, Saeed, 2020.
"Combining survey long-run forecasts and nowcasts with BVAR forecasts using relative entropy,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 373-398.
- Ellis W. Tallman & Saeed Zaman, 2018. "Combining Survey Long-Run Forecasts and Nowcasts with BVAR Forecasts Using Relative Entropy," Working Papers (Old Series) 1809, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Gefang, Deborah & Koop, Gary & Poon, Aubrey, 2023. "Forecasting using variational Bayesian inference in large vector autoregressions with hierarchical shrinkage," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 346-363.
- repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/oqlq05oa890qa4mag2svqh4ht is not listed on IDEAS
- Lenza, Michele, 2023. "Inflation and wage growth since the pandemic: A comment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
- Máximo Camacho & Matías Pacce & Gabriel Pérez-Quirós, 2020.
"Spillover effects in international business cycles,"
Working Papers
2034, Banco de España.
- Pérez-Quirós, Gabriel & Camacho, Máximo & Pacce, Matias Jose, 2021. "Spillover Effects in International Business Cycles," CEPR Discussion Papers 15787, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Camacho, Maximo & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel & Pacce, Matías, 2020. "Spillover effects in international business cycles," Working Paper Series 2484, European Central Bank.
- Zheng, Tingguo & Ye, Shiqi & Hong, Yongmiao, 2023. "Fast estimation of a large TVP-VAR model with score-driven volatilities," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
- Deborah Gefang & Gary Koop & Aubrey Poon, 2019.
"Variational Bayesian Inference in Large Vector Autoregressions with Hierarchical Shrinkage,"
Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers
ESCoE DP-2019-07, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
- Deborah Gefang & Gary Koop & Aubrey Poon, 2019. "Variational Bayesian inference in large Vector Autoregressions with hierarchical shrinkage," CAMA Working Papers 2019-08, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Deborah Gefang & Gary Koop & Aubrey Poon, 2019. "Variational Bayesian Inference in Large Vector Autoregressions with Hierarchical Shrinkage," Discussion Papers in Economics 19/05, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester.
- Hauber, Philipp, 2021. "How useful is external information from professional forecasters? Conditional forecasts in large factor models," EconStor Preprints 251469, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
- Cimadomo, Jacopo & Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Monti, Francesca & Sokol, Andrej, 2022.
"Nowcasting with large Bayesian vector autoregressions,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(2), pages 500-519.
- Cimadomo, Jacopo & Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Monti, Francesca & Sokol, Andrej, 2020. "Nowcasting with large Bayesian vector autoregressions," Working Paper Series 2453, European Central Bank.
- Lenza, Michele & Cimadomo, Jacopo & Giannone, Domenico & Monti, Francesca & Sokol, Andrej, 2021. "Nowcasting with Large Bayesian Vector Autoregressions," CEPR Discussion Papers 15854, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Cristina Manteu & Sara Serra, 2017. "Impact of uncertainty measures on the Portuguese economy," Working Papers w201709, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
- Michael W. McCracken & Joseph T. McGillicuddy & Michael T. Owyang, 2022.
"Binary Conditional Forecasts,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(3), pages 1246-1258, June.
- Michael W. McCracken & Joseph McGillicuddy & Michael T. Owyang, 2019. "Binary Conditional Forecasts," Working Papers 2019-029, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised Apr 2021.
- Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Matteo Luciani & Michele Modugno, 2024.
"Lessons from nowcasting GDP across the world,"
Chapters, in: Michael P. Clements & Ana Beatriz Galvão (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Macroeconomic Forecasting, chapter 8, pages 187-217,
Edward Elgar Publishing.
- Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Matteo Luciani & Michele Modugno, 2023. "Lessons from Nowcasting GDP across the World," International Finance Discussion Papers 1385, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia & Ricco, Giovanni, 2018.
"Bayesian Vector Autoregressions,"
The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS)
1159, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia & Ricco, Giovanni, 2018. "Bayesian vector autoregressions," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 87393, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Silvia Miranda Agrippino & Giovanni Ricco, 2018. "Bayesian vector autoregressions," Working Papers hal-03458277, HAL.
- Silvia Miranda-Agrippino & Giovanni Ricco, 2018. "Bayesian Vector Autoregressions," Discussion Papers 1808, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
- Silvia Miranda Agrippino & Giovanni Ricco, 2018. "Bayesian vector autoregressions," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03458277, HAL.
- Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia & Ricco, Giovanni, 2018. "Bayesian vector autoregressions," Bank of England working papers 756, Bank of England.
- Silvia Miranda-Agrippino & Giovanni Ricco, 2018. "Bayesian vector autoregressions," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2018-18, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
- Knotek, Edward S. & Zaman, Saeed, 2019.
"Financial nowcasts and their usefulness in macroeconomic forecasting,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1708-1724.
- Edward S. Knotek & Saeed Zaman, 2017. "Financial Nowcasts and Their Usefulness in Macroeconomic Forecasting," Working Papers (Old Series) 1702, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Guy P. Nason & James L. Wei, 2022. "Quantifying the economic response to COVID‐19 mitigations and death rates via forecasting purchasing managers' indices using generalised network autoregressive models with exogenous variables," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 185(4), pages 1778-1792, October.
- Klaus-Heiner Röhl & Joachim Ragnitz & Ulrich Walwei & Timo Wollmershäuser & Justus Haucap & Jarko Fidrmuc & Florian Horky & Philipp Reichle & Fabian Reck & Birgit Felden, 2021. "Die Post-Covid-19-Wirtschaft: Welche unerwarteten Spuren hinterlässt die Krise in Branchen, Regionen und Strukturen," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 74(03), pages 03-25, March.
- Stefan Laseen & Marzie Taheri Sanjani, 2016. "Did the Global Financial Crisis Break the U.S. Phillips Curve?," IMF Working Papers 2016/126, International Monetary Fund.
- Kenichiro McAlinn & Knut Are Aastveit & Jouchi Nakajima & Mike West, 2020.
"Multivariate Bayesian Predictive Synthesis in Macroeconomic Forecasting,"
Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 115(531), pages 1092-1110, July.
- Kenichiro McAlinn & Knut Are Aastveit & Jouchi Nakajima & Mike West, 2019. "Multivariate Bayesian Predictive Synthesis in Macroeconomic Forecasting," Working Papers No 01/2019, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
- Kenichiro McAlinn & Knut Are Aastveit & Jouchi Nakajima & Mike West, 2019. "Multivariate Bayesian Predictive Synthesis in Macroeconomic Forecasting," Working Paper 2019/2, Norges Bank.
- João Barata R.B. Barroso & Fernanda Nechio, 2020. "Financial market development, monetary policy and financial stability in Brazil," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Financial market development, monetary policy and financial stability in emerging market economies, volume 113, pages 55-65, Bank for International Settlements.
- Michael W. McCracken & Joseph T. McGillicuddy, 2019.
"An empirical investigation of direct and iterated multistep conditional forecasts,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(2), pages 181-204, March.
- Michael W. McCracken & Joseph McGillicuddy, 2017. "An Empirical Investigation of Direct and Iterated Multistep Conditional Forecasts," Working Papers 2017-40, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Berg Tim Oliver, 2017.
"Forecast accuracy of a BVAR under alternative specifications of the zero lower bound,"
Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(2), pages 1-29, April.
- Tim Oliver Berg, 2015. "Forecast Accuracy of a BVAR under Alternative Specifications of the Zero Lower Bound," ifo Working Paper Series 203, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
- Barroso, João Barata R.B. & da Silva, Luiz A. Pereira & Sales, Adriana Soares, 2016.
"Quantitative easing and related capital flows into Brazil: Measuring its effects and transmission channels through a rigorous counterfactual evaluation,"
Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 102-122.
- João Barata R. B. Barroso & Luiz A. Pereira da Silva & Adriana Soares Sales, 2013. "Quantitative Easing and Related Capital Flows into Brazil: measuring its effects and transmission channels through a rigorous counterfactual evaluation," Working Papers Series 313, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
- Gustavo Adler & Sebastian Sosa, 2016. "External Factors in Debt Sustainability Analysis: An Application to Latin America?," Journal of Banking and Financial Economics, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management, vol. 1(5), pages 81-120, June.
- Manuel González-Astudillo & Juan Guerra-Salas & Avi Lipton, 2024. "Fiscal Consolidations in Commodity-Exporting Countries: A DSGE Perspective," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 1015, Central Bank of Chile.
- Ganics, Gergely & Odendahl, Florens, 2021.
"Bayesian VAR forecasts, survey information, and structural change in the euro area,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 971-999.
- Gergely Ganics & Florens Odendahl, 2019. "Bayesian VAR forecasts, survey information and structural change in the euro area," Working Papers 1948, Banco de España.
- Gergely Ganics & Florens Odendahl, 2019. "Bayesian VAR Forecasts, Survey Information and Structural Change in the Euro Area," Working papers 733, Banque de France.
- repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/oqlq05oa890qa4mag2svqh4ht is not listed on IDEAS
- Carlo Altavilla & Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza, 2016.
"The Financial and Macroeconomic Effects of the OMT Announcements,"
International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 12(3), pages 29-57, September.
- Michele Lenza, 2015. "The financial and macroeconomic effects of OMT announcements," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 22, pages 12-16.
- Carlo Altavilla & Domenico Giannone & Michèle Lenza, 2014. "The Financial and Macroeconomic Effects of OMT Announcements," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2014-31, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Giannone, Domenico & Altavilla, Carlo & Lenza, Michele, 2014. "The financial and macroeconomic effects of OMT announcements," Working Paper Series 1707, European Central Bank.
- Carlo Altavilla & Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza, 2014. "The Financial and Macroeconomic Effects of the OMT Announcements," CSEF Working Papers 352, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
- Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Altavilla, Carlo, 2014. "The Financial and Macroeconomic Effects of OMT Announcements," CEPR Discussion Papers 10025, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Domenico Giannone & Eric Qian & Argia M. Sbordone, 2021. "A Large Bayesian VAR of the United States Economy," Staff Reports 976, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Salman Huseynov, 2021. "Long and short memory in dynamic term structure models," CREATES Research Papers 2021-15, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
- Antonello D’Agostino & Michele Modugno & Chiara Osbat, 2017.
"A Global Trade Model for the Euro Area,"
International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 13(4), pages 1-34, December.
- Antonello D'Agostino & Michele Modugno & Chiara Osbat, 2015. "A Global Trade Model for the Euro Area," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-13, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Osbat, Chiara & D'Agostino, Antonello & Modugno, Michele, 2016. "A global trade model for the euro area," Working Paper Series 1986, European Central Bank.
- repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/27od5pb99881folvtfs8s3k16l is not listed on IDEAS
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2014.
"Evaluating Conditional Forecasts from Vector Autoregressions,"
Working Papers
2014-25, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2014. "Evaluating Conditional Forecasts from Vector Autoregressions," Working Papers (Old Series) 1413, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Rodríguez, Aldo, 2020. "Estimación Bayesiana de un Modelo de Economía Abierta con Sector Bancario," Dynare Working Papers 52, CEPREMAP.
- Chalmovianský, Jakub & Porqueddu, Mario & Sokol, Andrej, 2020. "Weigh(t)ing the basket: aggregate and component-based inflation forecasts for the euro area," Working Paper Series 2501, European Central Bank.
- Anastasios Evgenidis & Anastasios G. Malliaris, 2020. "To Lean Or Not To Lean Against An Asset Price Bubble? Empirical Evidence," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 58(4), pages 1958-1976, October.
- Liudmila Kitrar & Tamara Lipkind, 2021. "Assessment Of GDP Growth After The Corona Crisis Using The Results Of Business And Consumer Surveys," HSE Working papers WP BRP 118/STI/2021, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
- Angelini, Elena & Lalik, Magdalena & Lenza, Michele & Paredes, Joan, 2019.
"Mind the gap: A multi-country BVAR benchmark for the Eurosystem projections,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1658-1668.
- Angelini, Elena & Lalik, Magdalena & Lenza, Michele & Paredes, Joan, 2019. "Mind the gap: a multi-country BVAR benchmark for the Eurosystem projections," Working Paper Series 2227, European Central Bank.
- Knut Are Aastveit & Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2017.
"Have Standard VARS Remained Stable Since the Crisis?,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(5), pages 931-951, August.
- Knut Are Aastveit & Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2014. "Have standard VARs remained stable since the crisis?," Working Paper 2014/13, Norges Bank.
- Marcellino, Massimiliano & Aastveit, Knut Are & Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd, 2016. "Have Standard VARs Remained Stable Since the Crisis?," CEPR Discussion Papers 11558, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Knut Are Aastveit & Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2014. "Have Standard VARs Remained Stable since the Crisis?," Working Papers (Old Series) 1411, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Elena Bobeica & Marek Jarociński, 2019.
"Missing Disinflation and Missing Inflation: A VAR Perspective,"
International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 15(1), pages 199-232, March.
- Jarociński, Marek & Bobeica, Elena, 2017. "Missing disinflation and missing inflation: the puzzles that aren't," Working Paper Series 2000, European Central Bank.
- Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2021.
"Economic Predictions With Big Data: The Illusion of Sparsity,"
Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(5), pages 2409-2437, September.
- Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Primiceri, Giorgio, 2017. "Economic Predictions with Big Data: The Illusion Of Sparsity," CEPR Discussion Papers 12256, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2018. "Economic Predictions with Big Data: The Illusion of Sparsity," Liberty Street Economics 20180521, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Primiceri, Giorgio E., 2021. "Economic predictions with big data: the illusion of sparsity," Working Paper Series 2542, European Central Bank.
- Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2018. "Economic predictions with big data: the illusion of sparsity," Staff Reports 847, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Joshua C. C. Chan & Eric Eisenstat & Chenghan Hou & Gary Koop, 2020.
"Composite likelihood methods for large Bayesian VARs with stochastic volatility,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(6), pages 692-711, September.
- Joshua C.C. Chan & Eric Eisenstat & Chenghan Hou & Gary Koop, 2018. "Composite Likelihood Methods for Large Bayesian VARs with Stochastic Volatility," Working Paper Series 44, Economics Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
- Joshua C.C. Chan & Eric Eisenstat & Chenghan Hou & Gary Koop, 2018. "Composite likelihood methods for large Bayesian VARs with stochastic volatility," CAMA Working Papers 2018-26, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Peter McAdam & Anders Warne, 2024.
"Density forecast combinations: The real‐time dimension,"
Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(5), pages 1153-1172, August.
- McAdam, Peter & Warne, Anders, 2020. "Density forecast combinations: the real-time dimension," Working Paper Series 2378, European Central Bank.
- Cristina Manteu & Sara Serra, 2017. "Impact of uncertainty measures on the Portuguese economy," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
- Kevin Moran & Dalibor Stevanovic & Stéphane Surprenant, 2024.
"Risk Scenarios and Macroeconomic Forecasts,"
CIRANO Working Papers
2024s-03, CIRANO.
- Kevin Moran & Dalibor Stevanovic & Stephane Surprenant, 2024. "Risk Scenarios and Macroeconomic Forecasts," Working Papers 24-01, Chair in macroeconomics and forecasting, University of Quebec in Montreal's School of Management, revised Apr 2024.
- Zakipour-Saber, Shayan, 2019. "Forecasting in the euro area: The role of the US long rate," Economic Letters 5/EL/19, Central Bank of Ireland.
- Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George, 2023.
"Oil price assumptions for macroeconomic policy,"
Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
- Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George, 2020. "Oil price assumptions for macroeconomic policy," MPRA Paper 100705, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Pestova, Anna (Пестова, Анна) & Mamonov, Mikhail (Мамонов, Михаил), 2016. "Estimating the Influence of Different Shocks on Macroeconomic Indicators and Developing Conditional Forecasts on the Basis of BVAR Model for the Russian Economy [Оценка Влияния Различных Шоков На Д," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 4, pages 56-92, August.
- Matteo Barigozzi & Matteo Luciani, 2017. "Common Factors, Trends, and Cycles in Large Datasets," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-111, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Endong Wang, 2024. "Structural counterfactual analysis in macroeconomics: theory and inference," Papers 2409.09577, arXiv.org.
- Francesco Bianchi & Giovanni Nicolo & Dongho Song, 2023.
"Inflation and Real Activity over the Business Cycle,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
2023-038, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Francesco Bianchi & Giovanni Nicolò & Dongho Song, 2023. "Inflation and Real Activity over the Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 31075, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Michele Lenza & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2022. "How to estimate a vector autoregression after March 2020," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(4), pages 688-699, June.
- Bańbura, Marta & Belousova, Irina & Bodnár, Katalin & Tóth, Máté Barnabás, 2023. "Nowcasting employment in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2815, European Central Bank.
- Narcissa Balta & Bořek Vašíček, 2020. "Financial channels and economic activity in the euro area: a large-scale Bayesian VAR approach," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 47(2), pages 431-451, May.
- D’Amuri, Francesco & De Philippis, Marta & Guglielminetti, Elisa & Lo Bello, Salvatore, 2022. "Slack and prices during Covid-19: Accounting for labor market participation," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
- Ankargren, Sebastian & Jonéus, Paulina, 2021.
"Simulation smoothing for nowcasting with large mixed-frequency VARs,"
Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 97-113.
- Sebastian Ankargren & Paulina Jon'eus, 2019. "Simulation smoothing for nowcasting with large mixed-frequency VARs," Papers 1907.01075, arXiv.org.
- Sokol, Andrej, 2021. "Fan charts 2.0: flexible forecast distributions with expert judgement," Working Paper Series 2624, European Central Bank.
- Bańbura, Marta & Bobeica, Elena & Martínez Hernández, Catalina, 2023. "What drives core inflation? The role of supply shocks," Working Paper Series 2875, European Central Bank.
- Simone Emiliozzi & Elisa Guglielminetti & Michele Loberto, 2018. "Forecasting house prices in Italy," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 463, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Antonio M. Conti & Andrea Nobili & Federico M. Signoretti, 2018. "Bank capital constraints, lending supply and economic activity," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1199, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Pestova, Anna & Mamonov, Mikhail, 2019. "Should we care? : The economic effects of financial sanctions on the Russian economy," BOFIT Discussion Papers 13/2019, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
- Itkonen, Juha & Juvonen, Petteri, 2017. "Nowcasting the Finnish economy with a large Bayesian vector autoregressive model," BoF Economics Review 6/2017, Bank of Finland.
- Matteo Barigozzi, 2023. "Quasi Maximum Likelihood Estimation of High-Dimensional Factor Models: A Critical Review," Papers 2303.11777, arXiv.org, revised May 2024.
- Christian Glocker & Serguei Kaniovski, 2022.
"Macroeconometric forecasting using a cluster of dynamic factor models,"
Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(1), pages 43-91, July.
- Christian Glocker & Serguei Kaniovski, 2020. "Macroeconometric Forecasting Using a Cluster of Dynamic Factor Models," WIFO Working Papers 614, WIFO.
- Anastasios Evgenidis & Anastasios G. Malliaris, 2022. "Monetary policy, financial shocks and economic activity," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 59(2), pages 429-456, August.
- Montes-Galdón, Carlos & Paredes, Joan & Wolf, Elias, 2022.
"Conditional density forecasting: a tempered importance sampling approach,"
Working Paper Series
2754, European Central Bank.
- Wolf, Elias & Montes-Galdón, Carlos & Paredes, Joan, 2024. "Conditional density forecasting: a tempered importance sampling approach," VfS Annual Conference 2024 (Berlin): Upcoming Labor Market Challenges 302442, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- Cristina Manteu & Sara Serra, . "Impact of uncertainty measures on the Portuguese economy," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
- Fawcett, Nicholas & Koerber, Lena & Masolo, Riccardo & Waldron, Matthew, 2015. "Evaluating UK point and density forecasts from an estimated DSGE model: the role of off-model information over the financial crisis," Bank of England working papers 538, Bank of England.
- Ángel Estrada & Luis Guirola & Iván Kataryniuk & Jaime Martínez-Martín, 2020. "The use of BVARs in the analysis of emerging economies," Occasional Papers 2001, Banco de España.
- Moral Carcedo, Julian & Perez García, Julian, 2015. "Feeding Large Econometric Models by a Mixed Approach of Classical Decomposition of Series and Dynamic Factor Analysis: Application to Wharton-UAM Model/Alimentando grandes modelos econométricos median," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 33, pages 487-512, Mayo.
- Misha van Beek, 2020. "Consistent Calibration of Economic Scenario Generators: The Case for Conditional Simulation," Papers 2004.09042, arXiv.org.
- Antolín-Díaz, Juan & Petrella, Ivan & Rubio-Ramírez, Juan F., 2021.
"Structural scenario analysis with SVARs,"
Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 798-815.
- Petrella, Ivan & Antolin-Diaz, Juan & Rubio-RamÃrez, Juan Francisco, 2018. "Structural Scenario Analysis with SVARs," CEPR Discussion Papers 12579, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Rostagno, Massimo & Altavilla, Carlo & Carboni, Giacomo & Lemke, Wolfgang & Motto, Roberto & Saint Guilhem, Arthur & Yiangou, Jonathan, 2019. "A tale of two decades: the ECB’s monetary policy at 20," Working Paper Series 2346, European Central Bank.
- repec:zbw:bofitp:2014_022 is not listed on IDEAS
- Conti, Antonio M., 2017. "Has the FED Fallen behind the Curve? Evidence from VAR models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 164-168.
- repec:wrk:wrkemf:32 is not listed on IDEAS
- Deryugina, Elena & Ponomarenko, Alexey, 2014.
"A large Bayesian vector autoregression model for Russia,"
BOFIT Discussion Papers
22/2014, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
- Elena Deryugina & Alexey Ponomarenko, 2015. "A large Bayesian vector autoregression model for Russia," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps1, Bank of Russia.
- repec:zbw:bofitp:2019_013 is not listed on IDEAS
- Hajer Ben Romdhane & Nahed Ben Tanfous, 2017. "Conditional FAVAR and scenario analysis for a large data: case of Tunisia," IHEID Working Papers 15-2017, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
- Monica Defend & Aleksey Min & Lorenzo Portelli & Franz Ramsauer & Francesco Sandrini & Rudi Zagst, 2021. "Quantifying Drivers of Forecasted Returns Using Approximate Dynamic Factor Models for Mixed-Frequency Panel Data," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(1), pages 1-35, February.
- Martina Hengge & Seton Leonard, 2017. "Factor Models for Non-Stationary Series: Estimates of Monthly U.S. GDP," IHEID Working Papers 13-2017, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
- repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/27od5pb99881folvtfs8s3k16l is not listed on IDEAS
- Pestova, Anna & Mamonov, Mikhail, 2019. "Should we care? The economic effects of financial sanctions on the Russian economy," BOFIT Discussion Papers 13/2019, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
- A. Colangelo & D. Giannone & M. Lenza & H. Pill & L. Reichlin, 2017. "The national segmentation of euro area bank balance sheets during the financial crisis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 247-265, August.
- repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/4u5amfvji89k4pj64fk8bf01dm is not listed on IDEAS
- Mehdiyev, Mehdi & Ahmadov, Vugar & Huseynov, Salman & Mammadov, Fuad, 2015. "Ölkə iqtisadiyyatı üzrə göstəricilərin modelləşdirilməsi və proqnozlaşdırılması: problemlər və praktiki çətinliklər [Modeling and forecasting of macroeconomic variables of the national economy: pro," MPRA Paper 63517, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Gergely Ganics & Eva Ortega, 2019. "Banco de España macroeconomic projections: comparison with an econometric model," Economic Bulletin, Banco de España, issue SEP.