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ifo Konjunkturprognose Winter 2020: Das Coronavirus schlägt zurück – erneuter Shutdown bremst Konjunktur ein zweites Mal aus

Author

Listed:
  • Timo Wollmershäuser
  • Marcell Göttert
  • Christian Grimme
  • Stefan Lautenbacher
  • Robert Lehmann
  • Sebastian Link
  • Manuel Menkhoff
  • Sascha Möhrle
  • Ann-Christin Rathje
  • Magnus Reif
  • Pauliina Sandqvist
  • Radek Šauer
  • Marc Stöckli
  • Anna Wolf
  • Stefan Sauer

Abstract

Die deutsche Wirtschaft erholte sich im dritten Quartal überraschend schnell vom Shutdown im Frühjahr. Im Herbst nahm jedoch das Infektionsgeschehen wieder spürbar an Fahrt auf, so dass im November erneut ein Shutdown verhängt wurde. Allerdings dürften die unmittelbaren wirtschaftlichen Auswirkungen dieses Mal geringer sein als noch im Frühjahr, da sich die staatlichen Infektionsschutzmaßnahmen bislang im Wesentlichen auf Anbieter von Dienstleistungen konzentrieren, die mit intensiven sozialen Kontakten einhergehen. Dennoch dürfte die konjunkturelle Erholung vorerst gestoppt sein und das Bruttoinlandsprodukt im Schlussquartal wohl wieder schrumpfen. Insgesamt ergibt sich für das Jahr 2020 ein Einbruch der Wirtschaftsleistung um 5,1%. Für den weiteren Prognosezeitraum wurde unterstellt, dass die seit November geltenden Infektionsschutzmaßnahmen unverändert bis März 2021 in Kraft bleiben und danach allmählich gelockert werden. Vor diesem Hintergrund wird das preisbereinigte Bruttoinlandsprodukt im Jahr 2021 um voraussichtlich 4,2% steigen.

Suggested Citation

  • Timo Wollmershäuser & Marcell Göttert & Christian Grimme & Stefan Lautenbacher & Robert Lehmann & Sebastian Link & Manuel Menkhoff & Sascha Möhrle & Ann-Christin Rathje & Magnus Reif & Pauliina Sandqv, 2020. "ifo Konjunkturprognose Winter 2020: Das Coronavirus schlägt zurück – erneuter Shutdown bremst Konjunktur ein zweites Mal aus," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 73(Sonderaus), pages 03-61, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:73:y:2020:i:sonderausgabe:p:03-61
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Katrin Demmelhuber, 2021. "Branchen im Fokus: Einzelhandel – Apotheken," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 74(03), pages 63-69, March.
    2. Stefan Sauer & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2021. "Industrieunternehmen setzen auch während der Coronakrise weiter auf Forschung und Entwicklung," ifo Schnelldienst Digital, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 2(8), March.
    3. Klaus Wohlrabe, 2021. "Branchen im Fokus: Wirtschaftsprüfung und Steuerberatung," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 74(01), pages 73-75, January.
    4. Timo Wollmershäuser & Przemyslaw Brandt & Christian Grimme & Max Lay & Robert Lehmann & Sebastian Link & Manuel Menkhoff & Sascha Möhrle & Ann-Christin Rathje & Pauliina Sandqvist & Radek Šauer & Marc, 2021. "ifo Konjunkturprognose Sommer 2021: Deutsche Wirtschaft im Spannungsfeld zwischen Öffnungen und Lieferengpässen," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 74(Sonderaus), pages 01-52, June.
    5. Przemyslaw Brandt & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2020. "Branchen im Fokus: Autoindustrie," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 73(12), pages 64-66, December.
    6. Klaus-Heiner Röhl & Joachim Ragnitz & Ulrich Walwei & Timo Wollmershäuser & Justus Haucap & Jarko Fidrmuc & Florian Horky & Philipp Reichle & Fabian Reck & Birgit Felden, 2021. "Die Post-Covid-19-Wirtschaft: Welche unerwarteten Spuren hinterlässt die Krise in Branchen, Regionen und Strukturen," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 74(03), pages 03-25, March.
    7. Radek Šauer, 2022. "ifo DSGE Model 2.0," ifo Working Paper Series 366, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    8. Przemyslaw Brandt & Nicolas Bunde & Sabine Rumscheidt & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2021. "Ausgewählte Branchenentwicklungen 2020/2021: Eine Übersicht für die Industrie, den Handel und den Dienstleistungssektor," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 74(01), pages 66-72, January.
    9. Timo Wollmershäuser & Marcell Göttert & Christian Grimme & Stefan Lautenbacher & Robert Lehmann & Sebastian Link & Sascha Möhrle & Ann-Christin Rathje & Magnus Reif & Pauliina Sandqvist & Radek Šauer , 2021. "ifo Konjunkturprognose Frühjahr 2021: Deutsche Wirtschaft taumelt in die dritte Coronawelle," ifo Schnelldienst Digital, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 2(9), March.
    10. Julia Freuding & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2021. "Die Dauer der Einschränkungen des öffentlichen Lebens und die Normalisierung der Geschäftslage: Was erwarten die Unternehmen?," ifo Schnelldienst Digital, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 2(4), February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Konjunktur; Internationale Konjunktur; Internationale Wirtschaft; Wirtschaftsprognose; Deutschland; EU-Staaten; Welt; Konjunkturprognose;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F01 - International Economics - - General - - - Global Outlook
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

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