Ölkə iqtisadiyyatı üzrə göstəricilərin modelləşdirilməsi və proqnozlaşdırılması: problemlər və praktiki çətinliklər
[Modeling and forecasting of macroeconomic variables of the national economy: problems and practical issues]
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Download full text from publisher
References listed on IDEAS
- Helmut Lütkepohl, 2005. "New Introduction to Multiple Time Series Analysis," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-540-27752-1, December.
- Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 1999.
"Conditional Forecasts In Dynamic Multivariate Models,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 639-651, November.
- Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 1998. "Conditional forecasts in dynamic multivariate models," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 98-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Günter Coenen, 2005.
"Asymptotic confidence bands for the estimated autocovariance and autocorrelation functions of vector autoregressive models,"
Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 65-75, January.
- Coenen, Günter, 2000. "Asymptotic confidence bands for the estimated autocovariance and autocorrelation functions of vector autoregressive models," Working Paper Series 9, European Central Bank.
- Bańbura, Marta & Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele, 2015.
"Conditional forecasts and scenario analysis with vector autoregressions for large cross-sections,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 739-756.
- Giannone, Domenico & Bańbura, Marta & Lenza, Michele, 2014. "Conditional forecasts and scenario analysis with vector autoregressions for large cross-sections," Working Paper Series 1733, European Central Bank.
- Giannone, Domenico & Banbura, Marta & Lenza, Michele, 2014. "Conditional forecasts and scenario analysis with vector autoregressions for large cross-sections," CEPR Discussion Papers 9931, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Martha Banbura & Domenico Giannone & Michèle Lenza, 2014. "Conditional Forecasts and Scenario Analysis with Vector Autoregressions for Large Cross-Sections," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2014-15, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Marta Banbura & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2010.
"Large Bayesian vector auto regressions,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 71-92.
- Reichlin, Lucrezia & Giannone, Domenico & Banbura, Marta, 2007. "Bayesian VARs with Large Panels," CEPR Discussion Papers 6326, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Martha Banbura & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2008. "Large Bayesian VARs," Working Papers ECARES 2008_033, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Marta Bańbura, 2008. "Large Bayesian VARs," 2008 Meeting Papers 334, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Bénédicte Vidaillet & V. d'Estaintot & P. Abécassis, 2005. "Introduction," Post-Print hal-00287137, HAL.
- Huseynov, Salman & Ahmadov, Vugar & Adigozalov, Shaig, 2014. "Beating a Random Walk: “Hard Times” for Forecasting Inflation in Post-Oil Boom Years?," MPRA Paper 63515, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Salman Huseynov & Vugar Ahmadov, 2013. "Oil Windfalls, Fiscal Policy and Money Market Disequilibrium," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp1051, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
- Jaromír Beneš & Andrew Binning & Kirdan Lees, 2008. "Incorporating judgement with DSGE models," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2008/10, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
- Lutz Kilian, 1998. "Small-Sample Confidence Intervals For Impulse Response Functions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(2), pages 218-230, May.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Helmut Lütkepohl, 2013.
"Vector autoregressive models,"
Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 6, pages 139-164,
Edward Elgar Publishing.
- Helmut Luetkepohl, 2011. "Vector Autoregressive Models," Economics Working Papers ECO2011/30, European University Institute.
- Kemal Bagzibagli, 2014.
"Monetary transmission mechanism and time variation in the Euro area,"
Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(3), pages 781-823, November.
- Kemal Bagzibagli, 2012. "Monetary Transmission Mechanism and Time Variation in the Euro Area," Discussion Papers 12-12, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
- Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia & Ricco, Giovanni, 2018.
"Bayesian Vector Autoregressions,"
The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS)
1159, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- Silvia Miranda Agrippino & Giovanni Ricco, 2018. "Bayesian vector autoregressions," Working Papers hal-03458277, HAL.
- Silvia Miranda-Agrippino & Giovanni Ricco, 2018. "Bayesian Vector Autoregressions," Discussion Papers 1808, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
- Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia & Ricco, Giovanni, 2018. "Bayesian vector autoregressions," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 87393, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Silvia Miranda Agrippino & Giovanni Ricco, 2018. "Bayesian vector autoregressions," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03458277, HAL.
- Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia & Ricco, Giovanni, 2018. "Bayesian vector autoregressions," Bank of England working papers 756, Bank of England.
- Silvia Miranda-Agrippino & Giovanni Ricco, 2018. "Bayesian vector autoregressions," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2018-18, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
- Ganics, Gergely & Odendahl, Florens, 2021.
"Bayesian VAR forecasts, survey information, and structural change in the euro area,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 971-999.
- Gergely Ganics & Florens Odendahl, 2019. "Bayesian VAR Forecasts, Survey Information and Structural Change in the Euro Area," Working papers 733, Banque de France.
- Gergely Ganics & Florens Odendahl, 2019. "Bayesian VAR forecasts, survey information and structural change in the euro area," Working Papers 1948, Banco de España.
- Helmut Lütkepohl, 2013.
"Reducing confidence bands for simulated impulse responses,"
Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 1131-1145, November.
- Helmut Lütkepohl, 2012. "Reducing Confidence Bands for Simulated Impulse Responses," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1235, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Knut Are Aastveit & Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2017.
"Have Standard VARS Remained Stable Since the Crisis?,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(5), pages 931-951, August.
- Knut Are Aastveit & Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2014. "Have standard VARs remained stable since the crisis?," Working Paper 2014/13, Norges Bank.
- Marcellino, Massimiliano & Aastveit, Knut Are & Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd, 2016. "Have Standard VARs Remained Stable Since the Crisis?," CEPR Discussion Papers 11558, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Knut Are Aastveit & Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2014. "Have Standard VARs Remained Stable since the Crisis?," Working Papers (Old Series) 1411, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Knotek, Edward S. & Zaman, Saeed, 2019.
"Financial nowcasts and their usefulness in macroeconomic forecasting,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1708-1724.
- Edward S. Knotek & Saeed Zaman, 2017. "Financial Nowcasts and Their Usefulness in Macroeconomic Forecasting," Working Papers (Old Series) 1702, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Chan, Joshua C.C. & Eisenstat, Eric & Koop, Gary, 2016.
"Large Bayesian VARMAs,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 192(2), pages 374-390.
- Joshua C C Chan & Eric Eisenstat & Gary Koop, 2014. "Large Bayesian VARMAs," Working Papers 1409, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
- Joshua Chan & Eric Eisenstat & Gary Koop, 2015. "Large Bayesian VARMAs," Working Paper series 15-36, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
- Joshua C.C. Chan & Eric Eisenstat & Gary Koop, 2014. "Large Bayesian VARMAs," Working Paper series 40_14, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
- Chan, Joshua C.C. & Eisenstat, Eric & Koop, Gary, 2014. "Large Bayesian VARMAs," SIRE Discussion Papers 2015-06, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
- Mário Jorge Mendonça & Luis Alberto Medrano & Adolfo Sachsida, 2009. "Avaliando a Condição da Política Fiscal no Brasil," Discussion Papers 1409, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
- Antonio M. Conti & Andrea Nobili & Federico M. Signoretti, 2018. "Bank capital constraints, lending supply and economic activity," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1199, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Matteo Luciani, 2015.
"Monetary Policy and the Housing Market: A Structural Factor Analysis,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(2), pages 199-218, March.
- Matteo LUCIANI, "undated". "Monetary Policy and the Housing Market: A Structural Factor Analysis," Working Papers wp2010-7, Department of the Treasury, Ministry of the Economy and of Finance.
- Matteo Luciani, 2012. "Monetary Policy and the Housing Market: A Structural Factor Analysis," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2012-035, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Matteo Luciani, 2013. "Monetary Policy, and the Housing Market: A Structural Factor Analysis," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/153324, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Lütkepohl, Helmut & Staszewska-Bystrova, Anna & Winker, Peter, 2015.
"Comparison of methods for constructing joint confidence bands for impulse response functions,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 782-798.
- Helmut Lütkepohl & Anna Staszewska-Bystrova & Peter Winker, 2013. "Comparison of Methods for Constructing Joint Confidence Bands for Impulse Response Functions," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1292, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Lütkepohl, Helmut & Staszewska-Bystrova, Anna & Winker, Peter, 2013. "Comparison of methods for constructing joint confidence bands for impulse response functions," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2013-031, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
- Helmut Lütkepohl & Anna Staszewska-Bystrova & Peter Winker, 2013. "Comparison of Methods for Constructing Joint Confidence Bands for Impulse Response Functions," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201325, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
- Tomas Havranek & Marek Rusnak, 2013.
"Transmission Lags of Monetary Policy: A Meta-Analysis,"
International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(4), pages 39-76, December.
- Tomas Havranek & Marek Rusnak, 2012. "Transmission Lags of Monetary Policy: A Meta-Analysis," Working Papers 2012/10, Czech National Bank.
- Tomas Havranek & Marek Rusnak, 2012. "Transmission Lags of Monetary Policy: A Meta-Analysis," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp1038, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
- Tomas Havranek & Marek Rusnak, 2012. "Transmission Lags of Monetary Policy: A Meta-Analysis," Working Papers IES 2012/27, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Oct 2012.
- Tallman, Ellis W. & Zaman, Saeed, 2020.
"Combining survey long-run forecasts and nowcasts with BVAR forecasts using relative entropy,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 373-398.
- Ellis W. Tallman & Saeed Zaman, 2018. "Combining Survey Long-Run Forecasts and Nowcasts with BVAR Forecasts Using Relative Entropy," Working Papers (Old Series) 1809, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2006-021 is not listed on IDEAS
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2014.
"Evaluating Conditional Forecasts from Vector Autoregressions,"
Working Papers
2014-25, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2014. "Evaluating Conditional Forecasts from Vector Autoregressions," Working Papers (Old Series) 1413, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Lutz Kilian, 2013.
"Structural vector autoregressions,"
Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 22, pages 515-554,
Edward Elgar Publishing.
- Kilian, Lutz, 2011. "Structural Vector Autoregressions," CEPR Discussion Papers 8515, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Michael Wolf & Dan Wunderli, 2012. "Bootstrap joint prediction regions," ECON - Working Papers 064, Department of Economics - University of Zurich, revised May 2013.
- Berg Tim Oliver, 2017.
"Forecast accuracy of a BVAR under alternative specifications of the zero lower bound,"
Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(2), pages 1-29, April.
- Tim Oliver Berg, 2015. "Forecast Accuracy of a BVAR under Alternative Specifications of the Zero Lower Bound," ifo Working Paper Series 203, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
- Brüggemann, Ralf, 2006. "Finite sample properties of impulse response intervals in SVECMs with long-run identifying restrictions," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2006-021, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
- Helmut Lütkepohl, 2012. "Fundamental Problems with Nonfundamental Shocks," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1230, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
More about this item
Keywords
Forecasting; Time series methods; Bayesian methods;All these keywords.
JEL classification:
- C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
- C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:63517. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.