Weigh(t)ing the basket: aggregate and component-based inflation forecasts for the euro area
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Download full text from publisher
References listed on IDEAS
- Ravazzolo Francesco & Vahey Shaun P., 2014.
"Forecast densities for economic aggregates from disaggregate ensembles,"
Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 18(4), pages 367-381, September.
- Francesco Ravazzolo & Shaun P. Vahey, 2010. "Forecast Densities for Economic Aggregates from Disaggregate Ensembles," CAMA Working Papers 2010-10, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Francesco Ravazzolo & Shaun P. Vahey, 2010. "Forecast densities for economic aggregates from disaggregate ensembles," Working Paper 2010/02, Norges Bank.
- Marta Banbura & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2010.
"Large Bayesian vector auto regressions,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 71-92.
- Reichlin, Lucrezia & Giannone, Domenico & Banbura, Marta, 2007. "Bayesian VARs with Large Panels," CEPR Discussion Papers 6326, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Martha Banbura & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2008. "Large Bayesian VARs," Working Papers ECARES 2008_033, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Bańbura, Marta, 2008. "Large Bayesian VARs," Working Paper Series 966, European Central Bank.
- Marta Bańbura, 2008. "Large Bayesian VARs," 2008 Meeting Papers 334, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Moser, Gabriel & Rumler, Fabio & Scharler, Johann, 2007.
"Forecasting Austrian inflation,"
Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 470-480, May.
- Gabriel Moser & Fabio Rumler & Johann Scharler, 2004. "Forecasting Austrian Inflation," Working Papers 91, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
- Kohn, Robert, 1982. "When is an aggregate of a time series efficiently forecast by its past?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 337-349, April.
- Domit, Sílvia & Monti, Francesca & Sokol, Andrej, 2019. "Forecasting the UK economy with a medium-scale Bayesian VAR," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1669-1678.
- Hendry, David & Hubrich, Kirstin, 2006.
"Forecasting Economic Aggregates by Disaggregates,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
5485, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Hendry, David F. & Hubrich, Kirstin, 2006. "Forecasting economic aggregates by disaggregates," Working Paper Series 589, European Central Bank.
- Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis, 2012.
"Forecasting Inflation Using Dynamic Model Averaging,"
International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 53(3), pages 867-886, August.
- Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis, 2009. "Forecasting Inflation Using Dynamic Model Averaging," Working Paper series 34_09, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
- Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2011. "Forecasting Inflation Using Dynamic Model Averaging," SIRE Discussion Papers 2011-40, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
- Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis, 2011. "Forecasting Inflation Using Dynamic Model Averaging," Working Papers 1119, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
- Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2010. "Forecasting Inflation Using Dynamic Model Averaging," SIRE Discussion Papers 2010-113, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
- Domenico Giannone & Jérôme Henry & Magdalena Lalik & Michele Modugno, 2012.
"An Area-Wide Real-Time Database for the Euro Area,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(4), pages 1000-1013, November.
- Domenico Giannone & Jérôme Henry & Magdalena Lalik & Michèle Modugno, 2010. "An Area Wide Real Time Data Base for the Euro Area," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2010-026, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Giannone, Domenico & Henry, Jérôme & Lalik, Magdalena & Modugno, Michele, 2010. "An area-wide real-time database for the euro area," Working Paper Series 1145, European Central Bank.
- Henry, Jerome & Giannone, Domenico & Lalik, Magdalena & Modugno, Michele, 2010. "An Area-Wide Real-Time Database for the Euro Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 7673, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Espasa, Antoni & Mayo-Burgos, Iván, 2013.
"Forecasting aggregates and disaggregates with common features,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 718-732.
- Mayo, Iván, 2012. "Forecasting aggregates and disaggregates with common features," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws110805, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de EstadÃstica.
- Katja Heinisch & Rolf Scheufele, 2018.
"Bottom-up or direct? Forecasting German GDP in a data-rich environment,"
Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 705-745, March.
- Katja Drechsel & Rolf Scheufele, 2012. "Bottom-up or Direct? Forecasting German GDP in a Data-rich Environment," Working Papers 2012-16, Swiss National Bank.
- Drechsel, Katja & Scheufele, Rolf, 2013. "Bottom-up or Direct? Forecasting German GDP in a Data-rich Environment," IWH Discussion Papers 7/2013, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
- Berkowitz, Jeremy, 2001. "Testing Density Forecasts, with Applications to Risk Management," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(4), pages 465-474, October.
- Elena Bobeica & Marek Jarociński, 2019.
"Missing Disinflation and Missing Inflation: A VAR Perspective,"
International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 15(1), pages 199-232, March.
- Jarociński, Marek & Bobeica, Elena, 2017. "Missing disinflation and missing inflation: the puzzles that aren't," Working Paper Series 2000, European Central Bank.
- Litterman, Robert B, 1986.
"Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions-Five Years of Experience,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 4(1), pages 25-38, January.
- Robert B. Litterman, 1985. "Forecasting with Bayesian vector autoregressions five years of experience," Working Papers 274, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Ard Reijer & Peter Vlaar, 2006.
"Forecasting Inflation: An Art as Well as a Science!,"
De Economist, Springer, vol. 154(1), pages 19-40, March.
- Peter Vlaar & Ard den Reijer, 2004. "Forecasting inflation: An art as well as a science!," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 148, Society for Computational Economics.
- Bańbura, Marta & Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele, 2015.
"Conditional forecasts and scenario analysis with vector autoregressions for large cross-sections,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 739-756.
- Giannone, Domenico & Bańbura, Marta & Lenza, Michele, 2014. "Conditional forecasts and scenario analysis with vector autoregressions for large cross-sections," Working Paper Series 1733, European Central Bank.
- Giannone, Domenico & Banbura, Marta & Lenza, Michele, 2014. "Conditional forecasts and scenario analysis with vector autoregressions for large cross-sections," CEPR Discussion Papers 9931, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Martha Banbura & Domenico Giannone & Michèle Lenza, 2014. "Conditional Forecasts and Scenario Analysis with Vector Autoregressions for Large Cross-Sections," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2014-15, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Brandyn Bok & Daniele Caratelli & Domenico Giannone & Argia M. Sbordone & Andrea Tambalotti, 2018.
"Macroeconomic Nowcasting and Forecasting with Big Data,"
Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 10(1), pages 615-643, August.
- Brandyn Bok & Daniele Caratelli & Domenico Giannone & Argia M. Sbordone & Andrea Tambalotti, 2017. "Macroeconomic nowcasting and forecasting with big data," Staff Reports 830, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Giannone, Domenico & Tambalotti, Andrea & Sbordone, Argia & Bok, Brandyn & Caratelli, Daniele, 2018. "Macroeconomic Nowcasting and Forecasting with Big Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 12589, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Tiao, G. C. & Guttman, Irwin, 1980. "Forecasting contemporal aggregates of multiple time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 219-230, February.
- Nakamura, Emi, 2005. "Inflation forecasting using a neural network," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 86(3), pages 373-378, March.
- Marta Banbura & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2010.
"Large Bayesian vector auto regressions,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 71-92.
- Marta Bańbura & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2010. "Large Bayesian vector auto regressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 71-92, January.
- Hubrich, Kirstin, 2005.
"Forecasting euro area inflation: Does aggregating forecasts by HICP component improve forecast accuracy?,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 119-136.
- Hubrich, Kirstin, 2003. "Forecasting euro area inflation: Does aggregating forecasts by HICP component improve forecast accuracy?," Working Paper Series 247, European Central Bank.
- Kirstin Hubrich, 2004. "Forecasting euro area inflation: Does aggregating forecasts by HICP component improve forecast accuracy?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 230, Society for Computational Economics.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002.
"Comparing Predictive Accuracy,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-263, July.
- Francis X. Diebold & Roberto S. Mariano, 1994. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," NBER Technical Working Papers 0169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Rossi, Barbara & Sekhposyan, Tatevik, 2014.
"Evaluating predictive densities of US output growth and inflation in a large macroeconomic data set,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 662-682.
- Barbara Rossi & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2013. "Evaluating predictive densities of U.S. output growth and inflation in a large macroeconomic data set," Economics Working Papers 1370, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
- Barbara Rossi & Tatevik Sehkposyan, 2013. "Evaluating Predictive Densities of US Output Growth and Inflation in a Large Macroeconomic Data Set," Working Papers 689, Barcelona School of Economics.
- Marcus P. A. Cobb, 2020. "Aggregate density forecasting from disaggregate components using Bayesian VARs," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 287-312, January.
- Rose, David E., 1977. "Forecasting aggregates of independent Arima processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 323-345, May.
- Clark, Todd & McCracken, Michael, 2013.
"Advances in Forecast Evaluation,"
Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1107-1201,
Elsevier.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2011. "Advances in forecast evaluation," Working Papers 2011-025, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2011. "Advances in forecast evaluation," Working Papers (Old Series) 1120, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Tallman, Ellis W. & Zaman, Saeed, 2017.
"Forecasting inflation: Phillips curve effects on services price measures,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 442-457.
- Ellis W. Tallman & Saeed Zaman, 2015. "Forecasting Inflation: Phillips Curve Effects on Services Price Measures," Working Papers (Old Series) 1519, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 1999.
"Conditional Forecasts In Dynamic Multivariate Models,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 639-651, November.
- Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 1998. "Conditional forecasts in dynamic multivariate models," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 98-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Colin Bermingham & Antonello D’Agostino, 2014.
"Understanding and forecasting aggregate and disaggregate price dynamics,"
Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 765-788, March.
- D'Agostino, Antonello & Bermingham, Colin, 2010. "Understanding and Forecasting Aggregate and Disaggregate Price Dynamics," Research Technical Papers 8/RT/10, Central Bank of Ireland.
- Bermingham, Colin & D'Agostino, Antonello, 2011. "Understanding and forecasting aggregate and disaggregate price dynamics," Working Paper Series 1365, European Central Bank.
- Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Momferatou, Daphne & Onorante, Luca, 2014.
"Short-term inflation projections: A Bayesian vector autoregressive approach,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 635-644.
- Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Onorante, Luca & Momferatou, Daphne, 2010. "Short-Term Inflation Projections: a Bayesian Vector Autoregressive approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 7746, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Domenico Giannone & Michèle Lenza & Daphné Momferatu & Luca Onorante, 2010. "Short-term inflation projections: a Bayesian vector autoregressive approach," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2010-011, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Ehrmann, Michael & Ferrucci, Gianluigi & Lenza, Michele & O'Brien, Derry, 2018. "Measures of underlying inflation for the euro area," Economic Bulletin Articles, European Central Bank, vol. 4.
- Diebold, Francis X & Gunther, Todd A & Tay, Anthony S, 1998. "Evaluating Density Forecasts with Applications to Financial Risk Management," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 863-883, November.
- Bobeica, Elena & Sokol, Andrej, 2019. "Drivers of underlying inflation in the euro area over time: a Phillips curve perspective," Economic Bulletin Articles, European Central Bank, vol. 4.
- Amisano, Gianni & Giacomini, Raffaella, 2007.
"Comparing Density Forecasts via Weighted Likelihood Ratio Tests,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 177-190, April.
- Gianni Amisano & Raffaella Giacomini, 2005. "Comparing Density Forecsts via Weighted Likelihood Ratio Tests," Working Papers ubs0504, University of Brescia, Department of Economics.
- Harvey, David & Leybourne, Stephen & Newbold, Paul, 1997. "Testing the equality of prediction mean squared errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 281-291, June.
- Roma, Moreno & Skudelny, Frauke & Benalal, Nicholai & Diaz del Hoyo, Juan Luis & Landau, Bettina, 2004. "To aggregate or not to aggregate? Euro area inflation forecasting," Working Paper Series 374, European Central Bank.
- Duarte, Claudia & Rua, Antonio, 2007. "Forecasting inflation through a bottom-up approach: How bottom is bottom?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 941-953, November.
- Marcellino, Massimiliano & Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 2003.
"Macroeconomic forecasting in the Euro area: Country specific versus area-wide information,"
European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 1-18, February.
- Massimiliano Marcellino & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, "undated". "Macroeconomic Forecasting in the Euro Area: Country Specific versus Area-Wide Information," Working Papers 201, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), 2013. "Handbook of Economic Forecasting," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 2, number 2.
- Söderström, Ulf & Iversen, Jens & LASEEN, PER & Lundvall, Henrik, 2016.
"Real-Time Forecasting for Monetary Policy Analysis: The Case of Sveriges Riksbank,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
11203, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Iversen, Jens & Laséen, Stefan & Lundvall, Henrik & Söderström, Ulf, 2016. "Real-Time Forecasting for Monetary Policy Analysis: The Case of Sveriges Riksbank," Working Paper Series 318, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
- Anesti, Nikoleta & Hayes, Simon & Moreira, Andre & Tasker, James, 2017. "Peering into the present: the Bank’s approach to GDP nowcasting," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 57(2), pages 122-133.
- Litterman, Robert, 1986. "Forecasting with Bayesian vector autoregressions -- Five years of experience : Robert B. Litterman, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 4 (1986) 25-38," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 497-498.
- Korobilis, Dimitris, 2017. "Quantile regression forecasts of inflation under model uncertainty," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 11-20.
- repec:ulb:ulbeco:2013/13388 is not listed on IDEAS
- Angelini, Elena & Lalik, Magdalena & Lenza, Michele & Paredes, Joan, 2019.
"Mind the gap: A multi-country BVAR benchmark for the Eurosystem projections,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1658-1668.
- Angelini, Elena & Lalik, Magdalena & Lenza, Michele & Paredes, Joan, 2019. "Mind the gap: a multi-country BVAR benchmark for the Eurosystem projections," Working Paper Series 2227, European Central Bank.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
- Sokol, Andrej, 2021. "Fan charts 2.0: flexible forecast distributions with expert judgement," Working Paper Series 2624, European Central Bank.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Tallman, Ellis W. & Zaman, Saeed, 2020.
"Combining survey long-run forecasts and nowcasts with BVAR forecasts using relative entropy,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 373-398.
- Ellis W. Tallman & Saeed Zaman, 2018. "Combining Survey Long-Run Forecasts and Nowcasts with BVAR Forecasts Using Relative Entropy," Working Papers (Old Series) 1809, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Marcus P. A. Cobb, 2020. "Aggregate density forecasting from disaggregate components using Bayesian VARs," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 287-312, January.
- Cobb, Marcus P A, 2018. "Improving Underlying Scenarios for Aggregate Forecasts: A Multi-level Combination Approach," MPRA Paper 88593, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Cobb, Marcus P A, 2017. "Aggregate Density Forecasting from Disaggregate Components Using Large VARs," MPRA Paper 76849, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Cobb, Marcus P A, 2017. "Forecasting Economic Aggregates Using Dynamic Component Grouping," MPRA Paper 81585, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Angela Capolongo & Claudia Pacella, 2021.
"Forecasting inflation in the euro area: countries matter!,"
Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(5), pages 2477-2499, November.
- Angela Capolongo & Claudia Pacella, 2019. "Forecasting inflation in the euro area: countries matter!," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1224, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Colin Bermingham & Antonello D’Agostino, 2014.
"Understanding and forecasting aggregate and disaggregate price dynamics,"
Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 765-788, March.
- D'Agostino, Antonello & Bermingham, Colin, 2010. "Understanding and Forecasting Aggregate and Disaggregate Price Dynamics," Research Technical Papers 8/RT/10, Central Bank of Ireland.
- Bermingham, Colin & D'Agostino, Antonello, 2011. "Understanding and forecasting aggregate and disaggregate price dynamics," Working Paper Series 1365, European Central Bank.
- Berg, Tim O. & Henzel, Steffen R., 2015.
"Point and density forecasts for the euro area using Bayesian VARs,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1067-1095.
- Berg, Tim Oliver & Henzel, Steffen, 2013. "Point and Density Forecasts for the Euro Area Using Many Predictors: Are Large BVARs Really Superior?," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79783, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- Tim Oliver Berg & Steffen Henzel, 2013. "Point and Density Forecasts for the Euro Area Using Many Predictors: Are Large BVARs Really Superior?," ifo Working Paper Series 155, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
- Tim Oliver Berg & Steffen Henzel, 2014. "Point and Density Forecasts for the Euro Area Using Bayesian VARs," CESifo Working Paper Series 4711, CESifo.
- Barbara Rossi, 2019.
"Forecasting in the presence of instabilities: How do we know whether models predict well and how to improve them,"
Economics Working Papers
1711, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jul 2021.
- Barbara Rossi, 2019. "Forecasting in the Presence of Instabilities: How Do We Know Whether Models Predict Well and How to Improve Them," Working Papers 1162, Barcelona School of Economics.
- Rossi, Barbara, 2020. "Forecasting in the Presence of Instabilities: How Do We Know Whether Models Predict Well and How to Improve Them," CEPR Discussion Papers 14472, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Carriero, Andrea & Mumtaz, Haroon & Theophilopoulou, Angeliki, 2015. "Macroeconomic information, structural change, and the prediction of fiscal aggregates," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 325-348.
- Andrejs Bessonovs & Olegs Krasnopjorovs, 2021.
"Short-term inflation projections model and its assessment in Latvia,"
Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 21(2), pages 184-204.
- Andrejs Bessonovs & Olegs Krasnopjorovs, 2020. "Short-Term Inflation Projections Model and Its Assessment in Latvia," Working Papers 2020/01, Latvijas Banka.
- Magnus Reif, 2020. "Macroeconomics, Nonlinearities, and the Business Cycle," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 87.
- Cobb, Marcus P A, 2017. "Joint Forecast Combination of Macroeconomic Aggregates and Their Components," MPRA Paper 76556, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2014.
"Evaluating Conditional Forecasts from Vector Autoregressions,"
Working Papers (Old Series)
1413, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2014. "Evaluating Conditional Forecasts from Vector Autoregressions," Working Papers 2014-25, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Peter McAdam & Anders Warne, 2024.
"Density forecast combinations: The real‐time dimension,"
Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(5), pages 1153-1172, August.
- McAdam, Peter & Warne, Anders, 2020. "Density forecast combinations: the real-time dimension," Working Paper Series 2378, European Central Bank.
- Martin Feldkircher & Nico Hauzenberger, 2019. "How useful are time-varying parameter models for forecasting economic growth in CESEE?," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q1/19, pages 29-48.
- Berg Tim Oliver, 2017.
"Forecast accuracy of a BVAR under alternative specifications of the zero lower bound,"
Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(2), pages 1-29, April.
- Tim Oliver Berg, 2015. "Forecast Accuracy of a BVAR under Alternative Specifications of the Zero Lower Bound," ifo Working Paper Series 203, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
- Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2015.
"Realtime nowcasting with a Bayesian mixed frequency model with stochastic volatility,"
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 178(4), pages 837-862, October.
- Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2012. "Real-time nowcasting with a Bayesian mixed frequency model with stochastic volatility," Working Papers (Old Series) 1227, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Marcellino, Massimiliano & Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd, 2013. "Real-Time Nowcasting with a Bayesian Mixed Frequency Model with Stochastic Volatility," CEPR Discussion Papers 9312, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Gregor Bäurle & Elizabeth Steiner & Gabriel Züllig, 2021.
"Forecasting the production side of GDP,"
Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(3), pages 458-480, April.
- Gregor Bäurle & Elizabeth Steiner & Gabriel Züllig, 2018. "Forecasting the production side of GDP," Working Papers 2018-16, Swiss National Bank.
- Dimitrios P. Louzis, 2017. "Macroeconomic and credit forecasts during the Greek crisis using Bayesian VARs," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(2), pages 569-598, September.
More about this item
Keywords
aggregation; Bayesian VAR model; inflation forecasting;All these keywords.
JEL classification:
- C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
NEP fields
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:- NEP-EEC-2021-01-04 (European Economics)
- NEP-FOR-2021-01-04 (Forecasting)
- NEP-MAC-2021-01-04 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2021-01-04 (Monetary Economics)
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20202501. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Official Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/emieude.html .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.