IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/jfr/rwe111/v5y2014i2p43-55.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Unemployed in Germany: Factors Influencing the Risk of Losing the Job

Author

Listed:
  • Nina Westerheide
  • Goran Kauermann

Abstract

Unemployment is a central issue in modern economies and its analysis and investigation consists of two aspects. First, what is the risk of getting unemployed based on economic, local and individual characteristics and second, what is the chance of getting reemployed. In this paper we focus on the first question by making use of the massive database from the German Federal Employment Agency (IABS Scientific Use File ¡®Regional File 1975 ¨C 2004¡¯) to model the risk of an individual to become unemployed between 2000 and 2004 in Germany. As individual covariates we include gender, age and education as fixed effects in our model. Beside these individual characteristics, regional as well as calendrical and economic information is considered and included as smooth functional effects in the model. As result of our data analysis we uncover strong educational and age specific effects as well as dominating calendrical and spatial effects on the individual's risk of getting unemployed.

Suggested Citation

  • Nina Westerheide & Goran Kauermann, 2014. "Unemployed in Germany: Factors Influencing the Risk of Losing the Job," Research in World Economy, Research in World Economy, Sciedu Press, vol. 5(2), pages 43-55, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:jfr:rwe111:v:5:y:2014:i:2:p:43-55
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciedu.ca/journal/index.php/rwe/article/view/5256/3098
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.sciedu.ca/journal/index.php/rwe/article/view/5256
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Konstantinos Tatsiramos, 2009. "Unemployment Insurance in Europe: Unemployment Duration and Subsequent Employment Stability," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(6), pages 1225-1260, December.
    2. Galiani, Sebastian & Hopenhayn, Hugo A., 2003. "Duration and risk of unemployment in Argentina," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 199-212, June.
    3. Lars Ljungqvist & Thomas J. Sargent, 1998. "The European Unemployment Dilemma," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(3), pages 514-550, June.
    4. Simon N. Wood, 2003. "Thin plate regression splines," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 65(1), pages 95-114, February.
    5. Beate Schirwitz, 2009. "A comprehensive German business cycle chronology," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 37(2), pages 287-301, October.
    6. Prem Thapa, 2004. "On The Risk Of Unemployment: A Comparative Assessment of the Labour Market Success of Migrants in Australia," CEPR Discussion Papers 473, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.
    7. Göran Kauermann & Jean D. Opsomer, 2011. "Data-driven selection of the spline dimension in penalized spline regression," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 98(1), pages 225-230.
    8. Viktor Steiner, 2001. "Unemployment Persistence in the West German Labour Market: Negative Duration Dependence or Sorting?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 63(1), pages 91-113, February.
    9. Hunt, Jennifer, 1995. "The Effect of Unemployment Compensation on Unemployment Duration in Germany," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 13(1), pages 88-120, January.
    10. E. A. Fieldhouse, 1996. "Putting Unemployment in its Place: Using the Samples of Anonymized Records to Explore the Risk of Unemployment in Great Britain in 1991," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(2), pages 119-133.
    11. Göran Kauermann & Tatyana Krivobokova & Ludwig Fahrmeir, 2009. "Some asymptotic results on generalized penalized spline smoothing," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 71(2), pages 487-503, April.
    12. Laura Wichert & Ralf A. Wilke, 2012. "Which factors safeguard employment?: an analysis with misclassified German register data," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 175(1), pages 135-151, January.
    13. Maren Lurweg, 2010. "Perceived Job Insecurity, Unemployment Risk and International Trade: A Micro-Level Analysis of Employees in German Service Industries," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 300, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    14. Olympia Bover & Manuel Arellano & Samuel Bentolila, 2002. "Unemployment Duration, Benefit Duration and the Business Cycle," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(479), pages 223-265, April.
    15. Knut Roed & Tao Zhang, 2003. "Does Unemployment Compensation Affect Unemployment Duration?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(484), pages 190-206, January.
    16. Lurweg, Maren, 2010. "Perceived job insecurity, unemployment risk and international trade: A micro-level analysis of employees in German service industries," CAWM Discussion Papers 32, University of Münster, Münster Center for Economic Policy (MEP).
    17. Steiner, Viktor, 1997. "Extended benefit entitlement periods and the duration of unemployment in West Germany," ZEW Discussion Papers 97-14, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    18. Göran Kauermann & Nina Westerheide, 2012. "To move or not to move to find a new job: spatial duration time model with dynamic covariate effects," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(5), pages 995-1009, October.
    19. Prem J. Thapa, 2004. "On the risk of unemployment: a comparative assessment of the labour market success of migrants in Australia," Australian Journal of Labour Economics (AJLE), Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC), Curtin Business School, vol. 7(2), pages 199-229, June.
    20. Ralf A. Wilke, 2005. "New Extimates of the Duration and Risk of Unemployment for West-Germany," Schmollers Jahrbuch : Journal of Applied Social Science Studies / Zeitschrift für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften, Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 125(2), pages 207-237.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:iab:iabfme:201510(en is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Dlugosz, Stephan & Mammen, Enno & Wilke, Ralf A., 2017. "Generalized partially linear regression with misclassified data and an application to labour market transitions," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 145-159.
    3. Dlugosz, Stephan & Mammen, Enno & Wilke, Ralf A., 2015. "Generalised partially linear regression with misclassified data and an application to labour market transitions," ZEW Discussion Papers 15-043, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Westerheide Nina & Kauermann Goeran, 2012. "Flexible Modelling of Duration of Unemployment Using Functional Hazard Models and Penalized Splines: A Case Study Comparing Germany and the UK," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 16(1), pages 1-27, January.
    2. Fitzenberger, Bernd & Wilke, Ralf A., 2007. "New insights on unemployment duration and post unemployment earnings in Germany: censored Box-Cox quantile regression at work," ZEW Discussion Papers 07-007, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    3. Yolanda Rebollo-Sanz & J. García-Pérez, 2015. "Are unemployment benefits harmful to the stability of working careers? The case of Spain," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 6(1), pages 1-41, March.
    4. Bernd Fitzenberger & Ralf A. Wilke, 2010. "New Insights into Unemployment Duration and Post Unemployment Earnings in Germany," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 72(6), pages 794-826, December.
    5. Torben Kuhlenkasper & Max Friedrich Steinhardt, 2011. "Unemployment Duration in Germany – A comprehensive study with dynamic hazard models and P-Splines," Norface Discussion Paper Series 2011018, Norface Research Programme on Migration, Department of Economics, University College London.
    6. Elke Lüdemann & Ralf Wilke & Xuan Zhang, 2006. "Censored quantile regressions and the length of unemployment periods in West Germany," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 1003-1024, November.
    7. Melanie Arntz & Ralf Wilke, 2009. "Unemployment Duration in Germany: Individual and Regional Determinants of Local Job Finding, Migration and Subsidized Employment," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(1), pages 43-61.
    8. Ignacio Moral-Arce & Javier Martín-Román & Ángel L. Martín-Román, 2019. "Cessation of Activity Benefit for Spanish Self-employed Workers: A Heterogeneous Impact Evaluation," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 231(4), pages 41-79, December.
    9. Johannes F. Schmieder & Till von Wachter & Stefan Bender, 2013. "The Causal Effect of Unemployment Duration on Wages: Evidence from Unemployment Insurance Extensions," NBER Working Papers 19772, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Konstantinos Tatsiramos & Jan C. Ours, 2014. "Labor Market Effects Of Unemployment Insurance Design," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(2), pages 284-311, April.
    11. repec:bla:germec:v:11:y:2010:i::p:336-366 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Johannes F. Schmieder† & Till von Wachter & Stefan Bender, 2011. "The Effects Of Extended Unemployment Insurance Over The Business Cycle: Evidence From Regression Discontinuity Estimates Over Twenty Years," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2011-063, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    13. Bart, COCKX & Jean, RIES, 2004. "The Exhaustion of Unemployment Benefits in Belgium. Does it Enhance the Probability of Employment ?," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2004016, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    14. Marco Caliendo & Konstantinos Tatsiramos & Arne Uhlendorff, 2013. "Benefit Duration, Unemployment Duration And Job Match Quality: A Regression‐Discontinuity Approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(4), pages 604-627, June.
    15. Kyyrä, Tomi & Ollikainen, Virve, 2008. "To search or not to search? The effects of UI benefit extension for the older unemployed," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(10-11), pages 2048-2070, October.
    16. Fitzenberger Bernd & Wilke Ralf A., 2010. "Unemployment Durations in West Germany Before and After the Reform of the Unemployment Compensation System during the 1980s," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 11(3), pages 336-366, August.
    17. Smith, Michael S. & Kauermann, Göran, 2011. "Bicycle commuting in Melbourne during the 2000s energy crisis: A semiparametric analysis of intraday volumes," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 45(10), pages 1846-1862.
    18. Hendrik Schmitz & Viktor Steiner, 2007. "Benefit-Entitlement Effects and the Duration of Unemployment: An Ex-ante Evaluation of Recent Labour Market Reforms in Germany," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 678, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    19. Rafael Lalive & Jan Van Ours & Josef Zweimuller, 2006. "How Changes in Financial Incentives Affect the Duration of Unemployment," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 73(4), pages 1009-1038.
    20. David R. Howell & Miriam Rehm, 2009. "Unemployment compensation and high European unemployment: a reassessment with new benefit indicators," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 25(1), pages 60-93, Spring.
    21. Martín-Román, Ángel L., 2022. "Beyond the added-worker and the discouraged-worker effects: the entitled-worker effect," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jfr:rwe111:v:5:y:2014:i:2:p:43-55. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Gina Perry (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://rwe.sciedupress.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.