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Long Memory in Angolan Macroeconomic Series: Mean Reversion versus Explosive Behaviour

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  • Carlos P. Barros
  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale
  • Luis A. Gil-Alana

Abstract

type="main" xml:lang="en"> This study examines the time series behaviour of several Angolan macroeconomic variables, using monthly data from August 1996 to June 2011. The series are the inflation rate, M1, M2, the exchange rate at the beginning and the end of the period, and the monthly average exchange rate. In the first stage univariate fractional integration models are estimated in order to determine whether shocks to the variables have transitory or permanent effects. In the second stage fractional cointegration techniques are applied to test for the existence of long-run equilibrium relationships between the variables of interest. The results suggest a high degree of persistence in the individual series (that are not mean-reverting) and the existence of bivariate long-run cointegrating relationships between prices and money, and prices and nominal exchange rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos P. Barros & Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2014. "Long Memory in Angolan Macroeconomic Series: Mean Reversion versus Explosive Behaviour," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 26(1), pages 59-73, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:afrdev:v:26:y:2014:i:1:p:59-73
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    Cited by:

    1. Carlos Pestana Barros, 2016. "Country survey: Angola," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(3), pages 423-432, June.
    2. C. P. Barros & João Ricardo Faria & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2017. "The demand for money in Angola," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 41(2), pages 408-420, April.

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    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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