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Testing stochastic cycles in macroeconomic time series

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  • Gil-Alaña, Luis A.

Abstract

A particular version of the tests of Robinson (1994) for testing stochastic cycles in macroeconomic time series is proposed in this article. The tests have a standard limit distribution and are easy to implement in raw time series. A Monte Carlo experiment is conducted, studying the size and the power of the tests against different alternatives, and the results are compared with those based on other tests. An empirical application using historical U.S. annual data is also carried out at the end of the article.

Suggested Citation

  • Gil-Alaña, Luis A., 2000. "Testing stochastic cycles in macroeconomic time series," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2000,70, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb373:200070
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Juha Ahtola & George C. Tiao, 1987. "Distributions Of Least Squares Estimators Of Autoregressive Parameters For A Process With Complex Roots On The Unit Circle," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(1), pages 1-14, January.
    2. Robinson, P. M., 1991. "Testing for strong serial correlation and dynamic conditional heteroskedasticity in multiple regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 67-84, January.
    3. Harvey, A C, 1985. "Trends and Cycles in Macroeconomic Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 3(3), pages 216-227, June.
    4. Henry L. Gray & Nien‐Fan Zhang & Wayne A. Woodward, 1989. "On Generalized Fractional Processes," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(3), pages 233-257, May.
    5. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    stochastic cycles; fractional roots; unit root cycles;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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