IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/una/unccee/wp1212.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Fractional Integration and Cointegration in US Financial Time Series Data

Author

Listed:
  • Luis A. Gil-Alana

    (School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra)

  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale

    (School of Social Sciences, Brunel University)

Abstract

This paper examines several US monthly financial time series data using fractional integration and cointegration techniques. The univariate analysis based on fractional integration aims to determine whether the series are I(1) (in which case markets might be efficient) or alternatively I(d) with d

Suggested Citation

  • Luis A. Gil-Alana & Guglielmo Maria Caporale, 2012. "Fractional Integration and Cointegration in US Financial Time Series Data," Faculty Working Papers 12/12, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    • Handle: RePEc:una:unccee:wp1212
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.unav.edu/documents/10174/6546776/1352908804_WP_UNAV_12_12.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. D Marinucci & Peter M Robinson, 1998. "Alternative Forms of Fractional Brownian Motion - (Now published in Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference, 80 (1999), pp.111-122.)," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series 354, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
    2. Søren Johansen, 2010. "An Extension of Cointegration to Fractional Autoregressive Processes," Discussion Papers 10-28, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    3. Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard, 2010. "Nonparametric cointegration analysis of fractional systems with unknown integration orders," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 155(2), pages 170-187, April.
    4. Robinson, Peter M. & Yajima, Yoshihiro, 2002. "Determination of cointegrating rank in fractional systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 106(2), pages 217-241, February.
    5. Alain Durré & Pierre Giot, 2007. "An International Analysis of Earnings, Stock Prices and Bond Yields," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(3‐4), pages 613-641, April.
    6. Granger, Clive W. J. & Hyung, Namwon, 2004. "Occasional structural breaks and long memory with an application to the S&P 500 absolute stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 399-421, June.
    7. Gil-Alana, L. A. & Robinson, P. M., 1997. "Testing of unit root and other nonstationary hypotheses in macroeconomic time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 241-268, October.
    8. Josu Arteche & Peter M. Robinson, 2000. "Semiparametric Inference in Seasonal and Cyclical Long Memory Processes," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(1), pages 1-25, January.
    9. Richards, Anthony J., 1995. "Comovements in national stock market returns: Evidence of predictability, but not cointegration," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 631-654, December.
    10. Diebold, Francis X. & Inoue, Atsushi, 2001. "Long memory and regime switching," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 131-159, November.
    11. John Y. Campbell, Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(3), pages 195-228.
    12. Hakkio, Craig S. & Rush, Mark, 1989. "Market efficiency and cointegration: an application to the sterling and deutschemark exchange markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 75-88, March.
    13. Hualde, Javier & Robinson, Peter M., 2003. "Cointegration in fractional systems with unkown integration orders," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 58050, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    14. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2008. "Modelling the US, UK and Japanese unemployment rates: Fractional integration and structural breaks," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(11), pages 4998-5013, July.
    15. Javier Hualde & Peter M Robinson, 2003. "Cointegration in Fractional Systems with Unkown Integration Orders," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series 449, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
    16. Morten Ørregaard Nielsen & Per Frederiksen, 2011. "Fully modified narrow‐band least squares estimation of weak fractional cointegration," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 14, pages 77-120, February.
    17. Marinucci, D & Robinson, Peter, 2001. "Narrow-band analysis of nonstationary processes," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 2015, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    18. Luis A. Gil‐Alana & S. G. Brian Henry, 2003. "Fractional Integration and the Dynamics of UK Unemployment," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(2), pages 221-239, May.
    19. D Marinucci & Peter M Robinson, 2001. "Semiparametric Fractional Cointegration Analysis," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series 420, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
    20. Crowder, William J., 1996. "A note on cointegration and international capital market efficiency: A reply," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 661-664, August.
    21. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1062-1088, October.
    22. P. M. Robinson & J. Hualde, 2003. "Cointegration in Fractional Systems with Unknown Integration Orders," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1727-1766, November.
    23. Peter M Robinson & Carlos Velasco, 2000. "Whittle Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood Estimation for Nonstationary Time Series - (Now published in Journal of the American Statistical Association, 95, (2000), pp.1229-1243.)," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series 391, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
    24. Sowell, Fallaw, 1992. "Maximum likelihood estimation of stationary univariate fractionally integrated time series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 165-188.
    25. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2004. "Fractional cointegration and tests of present value models," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 245-258.
    26. repec:bla:jfinan:v:44:y:1989:i:1:p:167-81 is not listed on IDEAS
    27. Arteche, Josu & Robinson, Peter M., 1998. "Seasonal and cyclical long memory," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 2241, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    28. Marinucci, D. & Robinson, Peter M., 2001. "Narrow-band analysis of nonstationary processes," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 303, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    29. Alain Durré & Pierre Giot, 2007. "An International Analysis of Earnings, Stock Prices and Bond Yields," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(3-4), pages 613-641.
    30. Marc Henry, 2001. "Robust Automatic Bandwidth for Long Memory," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(3), pages 293-316, May.
    31. Shao, Xiaofeng & Wu, Wei Biao, 2007. "Local Whittle Estimation Of Fractional Integration For Nonlinear Processes," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(5), pages 899-929, October.
    32. Hualde, J. & Robinson, P.M., 2007. "Root-n-consistent estimation of weak fractional cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 450-484, October.
    33. Marinucci, D & Robinson, Peter M., 2001. "Semiparametric fractional cointegration analysis," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 2269, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    34. Phillips, P C B, 1991. "Optimal Inference in Cointegrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 283-306, March.
    35. DeJong, David N., 1992. "Co-integration and trend-stationarity in macroeconomic time series : Evidence from the likelihood function," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 347-370, June.
    36. Marinucci, D. & Robinson, P. M., 2001. "Semiparametric fractional cointegration analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 225-247, November.
    37. Robinson, Peter M. & Hualde, Javier, 2003. "Cointegration in fractional systems with unknown integration orders," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 2223, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    38. Koop, Gary, 1991. "Cointegration tests in present value relationships : A Bayesian look at the bivariate properties of stock prices and dividends," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1-2), pages 105-139.
    39. Josu Arteche, 2002. "Semiparametric robust tests on seasonal or cyclical long memory time series," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(3), pages 251-285, May.
    40. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Javier Hualde, 2009. "Fractional Integration and Cointegration: An Overview and an Empirical Application," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Terence C. Mills & Kerry Patterson (ed.), Palgrave Handbook of Econometrics, chapter 10, pages 434-469, Palgrave Macmillan.
    41. Rangvid, Jesper, 2001. "Increasing convergence among European stock markets?: A recursive common stochastic trends analysis," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 71(3), pages 383-389, June.
    42. D Marinucci & Peter M Robinson, 2001. "Narrow-Band Analysis of Nonstationary Processes," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series 421, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
    43. Robinson, Peter M. & Velasco, Carlos, 2000. "Whittle pseudo-maximum likelihood estimation for nonstationary time series," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 2273, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:diw:diwwpp:dp1647 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Stoyan V. Stoyanov & Yong Shin Kim & Svetlozar T. Rachev & Frank J. Fabozzi, 2017. "Option pricing for Informed Traders," Papers 1711.09445, arXiv.org.
    3. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Alex Plastun, 2017. "Long Memory and Data Frequency in Financial Markets," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1647, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    4. Maria Malmierca-Ordoqui & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Lorenzo Bermejo, 2024. "Private and public debt convergence: a fractional cointegration approach," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 51(1), pages 161-183, February.
    5. Yaya, OlaOluwa S & Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2018. "High and Low Intraday Commodity Prices: A Fractional Integration and Cointegration Approach," MPRA Paper 90518, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Javier Haulde & Morten Ørregaard Nielsen, 2022. "Fractional integration and cointegration," CREATES Research Papers 2022-02, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    2. Robinson, P.M. & Iacone, F., 2005. "Cointegration in fractional systems with deterministic trends," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 129(1-2), pages 263-298.
    3. Hualde, J. & Robinson, P.M., 2007. "Root-n-consistent estimation of weak fractional cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 450-484, October.
    4. Hualde, Javier, 2006. "Unbalanced Cointegration," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(5), pages 765-814, October.
    5. Banerjee, Anindya & Urga, Giovanni, 2005. "Modelling structural breaks, long memory and stock market volatility: an overview," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 129(1-2), pages 1-34.
    6. Hualde, J. & Robinson, P.M., 2010. "Semiparametric inference in multivariate fractionally cointegrated systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 157(2), pages 492-511, August.
    7. Hualde Javier & Iacone Fabrizio, 2012. "First Stage Estimation of Fractional Cointegration," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-32, May.
    8. repec:diw:diwwpp:dp1247 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana & Robert Mudida, 2015. "Testing the Marshall–Lerner Condition in Kenya," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 83(2), pages 253-268, June.
    10. Barros, Carlos Pestana & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Payne, James E., 2012. "Comovements among U.S. state housing prices: Evidence from fractional cointegration," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 936-942.
    11. Gilles de Truchis & Florent Dubois & Elena Ivona Dumitrescu, 2019. "Local Whittle Analysis of Stationary Unbalanced Fractional Cointegration Systems," Working Papers hal-04141882, HAL.
    12. Gilles de Truchis & Elena Ivona Dumitrescu, 2019. "Narrow-band Weighted Nonlinear Least Squares Estimation of Unbalanced Cointegration Systems," EconomiX Working Papers 2019-14, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    13. Fabrizio Iacone, 2009. "A Semiparametric Analysis of the Term Structure of the US Interest Rates," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(4), pages 475-490, August.
    14. Wang, Bin & Wang, Man & Chan, Ngai Hang, 2015. "Residual-based test for fractional cointegration," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 43-46.
    15. Hualde, Javier, 2014. "Estimation of long-run parameters in unbalanced cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(2), pages 761-778.
    16. Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Yaya, OlaOluwa S. & Akinsomi, Omokolade & Coskun, Yener, 2020. "How do stocks in BRICS co-move with real estate stocks?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 93-101.
    17. Gilles de Truchis & Elena Ivona Dumitrescu & Florent Dubois, 2019. "Local Whittle Analysis of Stationary Unbalanced Fractional Cointegration Systems," EconomiX Working Papers 2019-15, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    18. Katarzyna Łasak & Carlos Velasco, 2015. "Fractional Cointegration Rank Estimation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(2), pages 241-254, April.
    19. P. M. Robinson & M. Gerolimetto, 2006. "Instrumental variables estimation of stationary and non-stationary cointegrating regressions," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 9(2), pages 291-306, July.
    20. Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Gil-Alana, Luis Alberiko, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty: Persistence and cross-country linkages," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    21. Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Yaya, OlaOluwa S, 2018. "How do Stocks in BRICS co-move with REITs?," MPRA Paper 88753, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:una:unccee:wp1212. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.unav.edu/web/facultad-de-ciencias-economicas-y-empresariales .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.