IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sbe/breart/v23y2003i2a2725.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Univariate Analysis of Unemployment and Inflation in Italy: A Fractionally Integrated Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Gil-Alana, Luis A.

Abstract

In this article we examine the behaviour of unemployment and inflation in Italy (1970-1994) by means of fractionally integrated techniques. Using a version of the tests of Robinson (1994a) that permits us to test I(d) statistical models, the results show that both variables are I(d) with d smaller than 1, thus implying mean reverting behaviour. This order of integration substantially varies depending on how we specify the I(O) disturbances, though in general, it oscillates around 0.80 for unemployment and 0.60 for inflation, suggesting that unemployment is more persistent than inflation. Splitting the sample in 1980, the degree of persistence seems higher for the second subperiod in both variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2003. "A Univariate Analysis of Unemployment and Inflation in Italy: A Fractionally Integrated Approach," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 23(2), November.
    • Handle: RePEc:sbe:breart:v:23:y:2003:i:2:a:2725
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://periodicos.fgv.br/bre/article/view/2725
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alan A. Carruth & Mark A. Hooker & Andrew J. Oswald, 1998. "Unemployment Equilibria And Input Prices: Theory And Evidence From The United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 621-628, November.
    2. Massimiliano Marcellino & Grayham E. Mizon, 2001. "Small-system modelling of real wages, inflation, unemployment and output per capita in Italy 1970-1994," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 359-370.
    3. Marcellino, M. & Mizon, G.E., 2001. "Small system modelling of real wages, inflation, unemployment and output per capita in Italy 1970-1994," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 0106, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    4. Luis A. Gil‐Alana, 2003. "Testing of Fractional Cointegration in Macroeconomic Time Series," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(4), pages 517-529, September.
    5. Granger, C. W. J., 1980. "Long memory relationships and the aggregation of dynamic models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 227-238, October.
    6. Marinucci, D & Robinson, Peter M., 1998. "Semiparametric frequency domain analysis of fractional cointegration," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 2258, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    7. Lobato, Ignacio N., 1999. "A semiparametric two-step estimator in a multivariate long memory model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 129-153, May.
    8. Cioczek-Georges, R. & Mandelbrot, B. B., 1995. "A class of micropulses and antipersistent fractional Brownian motion," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 1-18, November.
    9. Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2000. "Mean reversion in the real exchange rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(3), pages 285-288, December.
    10. L. A. Gil-Alana & P. M. Robinson, 2001. "Testing of seasonal fractional integration in UK and Japanese consumption and income," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(2), pages 95-114.
    11. Perron, Pierre, 1988. "Trends and random walks in macroeconomic time series : Further evidence from a new approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 297-332.
    12. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    13. Granger, C. W. J., 1981. "Some properties of time series data and their use in econometric model specification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 121-130, May.
    14. Barsky, Robert B., 1987. "The Fisher hypothesis and the forecastability and persistence of inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 3-24, January.
    15. Juan J. Dolado & Jesus Gonzalo & Laura Mayoral, 2002. "A Fractional Dickey-Fuller Test for Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(5), pages 1963-2006, September.
    16. Tanaka, Katsuto, 1999. "The Nonstationary Fractional Unit Root," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(4), pages 549-582, August.
    17. Mills, Terence C, 1994. "Infrequent Permanent Shocks and the Unit Root in Quarterly UK Output," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(1), pages 91-94, January.
    18. Alok Bhargava, 1986. "On the Theory of Testing for Unit Roots in Observed Time Series," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 53(3), pages 369-384.
    19. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    20. repec:bla:jfinan:v:43:y:1988:i:5:p:1095-1112 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Christiano, Lawrence J, 1992. "Searching for a Break in GNP," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 237-250, July.
    22. Demery, D & Duck, N W, 1992. "Are Economic Fluctuations Really Persistent? A Reinterpretation of Some International Evidence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 102(414), pages 1094-1101, September.
    23. Velasco, Carlos, 1999. "Non-stationary log-periodogram regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 325-371, August.
    24. Chambers, Marcus J, 1998. "Long Memory and Aggregation in Macroeconomic Time Series," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1053-1072, November.
    25. Krol, Robert, 1992. "Trends, Random Walks and Persistence: An Empirical Study of Disaggregated U.S. Industrial Production," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(1), pages 154-159, February.
    26. Clive W.J. Granger & Namwon Hyung, 2013. "Occasional Structural Breaks and Long Memory," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 14(2), pages 739-764, November.
    27. Laurence Ball & Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1990. "Inflation and Uncertainty at Long and Short Horizons," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 21(1), pages 215-254.
    28. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    29. Massimiliano Marcellino & Grayham E. Mizon, 2001. "Small-system modelling of real wages, inflation, unemployment and output per capita in Italy 1970-1994," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 359-370.
    30. Gil-Alana, Luis A., 1999. "Testing fractional integration with monthly data," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 613-629, December.
    31. Schmidt, Peter & Phillips, C B Peter, 1992. "LM Tests for a Unit Root in the Presence of Deterministic Trends," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 257-287, August.
    32. William R. Parke, 1999. "What Is Fractional Integration?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 632-638, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cunado, J. & Gil-Alana, L. A. & Perez de Gracia, F., 2004. "Is the US fiscal deficit sustainable?: A fractionally integrated approach," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 501-526.
    2. Luis A. Gil-Alanaa, 2005. "Unit and fractional roots in the presence of abrupt changes with an application to the brazilian inflation rate," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 193-207, January.
    3. Cunado, J. & Gil-Alana, L. A. & Perez de Gracia, F., 2004. "Real convergence in Taiwan: a fractionally integrated approach," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 529-547, June.
    4. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis Gil‐Alana, 2014. "Long‐Run and Cyclical Dynamics in the US Stock Market," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(2), pages 147-161, March.
    5. Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2004. "Modelling the U.S. interest rate in terms of I(d) statistical models," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(4), pages 475-486, September.
    6. Juncal Cunado & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Fernando Pérez de Gracia, 2006. "Additional Empirical Evidence on Real Convergence: A Fractionally Integrated Approach," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 142(1), pages 67-91, April.
    7. Christian Fischer & Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana, 2005. "The Nature of the Relationship between International Tourism and International Trade: The Case of Ge," Faculty Working Papers 15/05, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    8. Christian Fischer & Luis Gil-Alana, 2009. "The nature of the relationship between international tourism and international trade: the case of German imports of Spanish wine," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(11), pages 1345-1359.
    9. Gil-Alana, L. A. & Robinson, P. M., 1997. "Testing of unit root and other nonstationary hypotheses in macroeconomic time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 241-268, October.
    10. Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2001. "A fractionally integrated model with a mean shift for the US and the UK real oil prices," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 643-658, December.
    11. Guglielmo Caporale & Luis Gil-Alana, 2003. "Long memory and structural breaks in hyperinflation countries," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 27(2), pages 136-152, June.
    12. Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2005. "Testing and forecasting the degree of integration in the US inflation rate," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(3), pages 173-187.
    13. L. A. Gil-Alana, 2003. "A fractional integration analysis of the population in some OECD countries," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(10), pages 1147-1159.
    14. Luis Gil-Alana, 2004. "Forecasting the real output using fractionally integrated techniques," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(14), pages 1583-1589.
    15. Luis Gil-Alana, 2003. "Stochastic behavior of nominal exchange rates," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 31(2), pages 159-173, June.
    16. Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir & Mehmet Balcilar & Aysit Tansel, 2013. "International Labour Force Participation Rates By Gender: Unit Root Or Structural Breaks?," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65, pages 142-164, May.
    17. Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2004. "Testing of I(d) processes in the real output," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(32), pages 1-6.
    18. Bertrand Candelon & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2004. "Fractional integration and business cycle features," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 343-359, May.
    19. Gil-Alana, L.A., 2006. "Seasonal and non-seasonal long memory effects in the Japanese real effective exchange rate," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 87-98, March.
    20. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2004:i:32:p:1-6 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis Gil-Alana, 2004. "Long range dependence in daily stock returns," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(6), pages 375-383.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sbe:breart:v:23:y:2003:i:2:a:2725. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Núcleo de Computação da FGV EPGE (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sbeeeea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.