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The Relationship Between Oil Prices and the Nigerian Stock Market, an Analysis Based on Fractional Integration and Cointegration

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  • Luis A. Gil-Alana
  • OlaOluwa Simon Yaya

Abstract

This paper deals with the analysis of the relationship between oil prices and the stock market in Nigeria. We focus on measuring the degree of persistence of the series using long range dependence techniques, and based on the similarities observed between the two series, a fractionally cointegrated modeling framework is proposed. The results first indicate that the two series display a similar order of integration, which is close to, although above 1. Testing the hypothesis of cointegration, this is decisively rejected since the order of integration in the potential equilibrium relationship was similar to that of the parent individual series. However, testing a long memory model with oil prices acting as a weakly exogenous regressor, we obtained significant evidence of a positive relationship between the two variables though with a very short memory effect, this relation being significant only during the following three months.

Suggested Citation

  • Luis A. Gil-Alana & OlaOluwa Simon Yaya, 2014. "The Relationship Between Oil Prices and the Nigerian Stock Market, an Analysis Based on Fractional Integration and Cointegration," NCID Working Papers 04/2014, Navarra Center for International Development, University of Navarra.
    • Handle: RePEc:nva:unnvaa:wp04-2014
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    3. Argha , Leila & Mowlaei , Mohammad & Khezri , Mohsen & Shahabadi , Abolfazl, 2017. "Impact of the Selected Domestic and Foreign Markets Returns on Stock Price in Iran," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 12(4), pages 481-489, October.
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    5. Olusanya E. Olubusoye & OlaOluwa S. Yaya, 2016. "Time series analysis of volatility in the petroleum pricing markets: the persistence, asymmetry and jumps in the returns series," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 40(3), pages 235-262, September.
    6. Smyth, Russell & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2018. "What do we know about oil prices and stock returns?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 148-156.
    7. Mushtaq Hussain Khan & Junaid Ahmed & Mazhar Mughal & Imtiaz Hussain Khan, 2023. "Oil price volatility and stock returns: Evidence from three oil‐price wars," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(3), pages 3162-3182, July.
    8. Patel, Ritesh & Goodell, John W. & Oriani, Marco Ercole & Paltrinieri, Andrea & Yarovaya, Larisa, 2022. "A bibliometric review of financial market integration literature," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    9. Silvapulle, Param & Smyth, Russell & Zhang, Xibin & Fenech, Jean-Pierre, 2017. "Nonparametric panel data model for crude oil and stock market prices in net oil importing countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 255-267.
    10. Mohammadi, H. & Abolhasani, L. & Shahnoushi, N. & Shabanian, F., 2018. "The effects of business cycle indicators on stock market indices of food industry in Iran," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 277425, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    11. Yaya, OlaOluwa S. & Tumala, Mohammed M. & Udomboso, Christopher G., 2016. "Volatility persistence and returns spillovers between oil and gold prices: Analysis before and after the global financial crisis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 273-281.
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    13. Babak Fazelabdolabadi, 2019. "Uncertainty and energy-sector equity returns in Iran: a Bayesian and quasi-Monte Carlo time-varying analysis," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 5(1), pages 1-20, December.
    14. Esmaeil Ebadi & Yousef Abdul Razaq, 2024. "Reinvestigating the Oil Dependency of the GCC Countries’ Stock Market: A Regime-Switching Cointegration Approach," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 14(3), pages 387-406, May.
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    23. Dai, Zhifeng & Zhou, Huiting & Kang, Jie & Wen, Fenghua, 2021. "The skewness of oil price returns and equity premium predictability," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).

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    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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