Influence of US Presidential Terms on S&P500 Index Using a Time Series Analysis Approach
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Download full text from publisher
References listed on IDEAS
- John Cotter, 2005.
"Uncovering long memory in high frequency UK futures,"
The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(4), pages 325-337.
- Cotter, John, 2004. "Uncovering Long Memory in High Frequency UK Futures," MPRA Paper 3525, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- John Cotter, 2011. "Uncovering Long Memory in High Frequency UK Futures," Papers 1103.5651, arXiv.org.
- John Cotter, 2011. "Uncovering Long Memory in High Frequency UK Futures," Working Papers 200414, Geary Institute, University College Dublin.
- Wong, Wing-Keung & McAleer, Michael, 2009. "Mapping the Presidential Election Cycle in US stock markets," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 79(11), pages 3267-3277.
- Laura Mayoral, 2006.
"Further Evidence on the Statistical Properties of Real GNP,"
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 68(s1), pages 901-920, December.
- Laura Mayoral, 2005. "Further evidence on the statistical properties of real GNP," Economics Working Papers 955, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Feb 2006.
- Lu, Yang K. & Perron, Pierre, 2010.
"Modeling and forecasting stock return volatility using a random level shift model,"
Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 138-156, January.
- Yang K. Lu & Pierre Perron, 2008. "Modeling and Forecasting Stock Return Volatility Using a Random Level Shift Model," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series wp2008-012, Boston University - Department of Economics.
- Philipp Sibbertsen, 2004.
"Long memory in volatilities of German stock returns,"
Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 477-488, September.
- Sibbertsen, Philipp, 2001. "Long-memory in volatilities of German stock returns," Technical Reports 2001,42, Technische Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475: Komplexitätsreduktion in multivariaten Datenstrukturen.
- Gartner, Manfred & Wellershoff, Klaus W., 1995. "Is there an election cycle in American stock returns?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 387-410.
- Lobato, Ignacio N & Savin, N E, 1998.
"Real and Spurious Long-Memory Properties of Stock-Market Data,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(3), pages 261-268, July.
- Lobato, I.N. & Savin, N.E., 1996. "Real and Spurious Long Memory Properties of Stock Market Data," Working Papers 96-07, University of Iowa, Department of Economics.
- I.N. Lobato & N.E. Savin, 1996. "Real and Spurious Long Memory Properties of Stock Market Data," Econometrics 9605004, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 26 Sep 1996.
- Michelacci, Claudio & Zaffaroni, Paolo, 2000.
"(Fractional) beta convergence,"
Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 129-153, February.
- Claudio Michelacci & Paolo Zaffaroni, 1998. "(Fractional) Beta Convergence," Working Papers wp1998_9803, CEMFI.
- Michelacci, C. & Zaffaroni, P., 2000. "(Fractional) Beta Convergence," Papers 383, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
- Michelacci, C. & Zaffaroni, P., 1998. "(Fractional) Beta Convergence," Papers 9803, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Y Financieros-.
- Claudio Michelacci & Paolo Zaffaroni, 2000. "(Fractional) Beta Convergence," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 383, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Christensen, Bent Jesper & Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard & Zhu, Jie, 2010.
"Long memory in stock market volatility and the volatility-in-mean effect: The FIEGARCH-M Model,"
Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 460-470, June.
- Bent Jesper Christensen & Morten Ørregaard Nielsen & Jie Zhu, 2007. "Long Memory in Stock Market Volatility and the Volatility-in-Mean Effect: The FIEGARCH-M Model," CREATES Research Papers 2007-10, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
- Bent Jesper Christensen & Jie Zhu & Morten Ø. Nielsen, 2009. "Long Memory In Stock Market Volatility And The Volatility-in-mean Effect: The Fiegarch-m Model," Working Paper 1207, Economics Department, Queen's University.
- Pedro Santa‐Clara & Rossen Valkanov, 2003. "The Presidential Puzzle: Political Cycles and the Stock Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(5), pages 1841-1872, October.
- Cavaliere, Giuseppe & Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2015.
"Bootstrap score tests for fractional integration in heteroskedastic ARFIMA models, with an application to price dynamics in commodity spot and futures markets,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 187(2), pages 557-579.
- Giuseppe Cavaliere & Morten Ø. Nielsen & A.M. Robert Taylor, 2013. "Bootstrap Score Tests For Fractional Integration In Heteroskedastic Arfima Models, With An Application To Price Dynamics In Commodity Spot And Futures Markets," Working Paper 1309, Economics Department, Queen's University.
- Giuseppe Cavaliere & Morten Ørregaard Nielsen & A.M. Robert Taylor, 2014. "Bootstrap Score Tests for Fractional Integration in Heteroskedastic ARFIMA Models, with an Application to Price Dynamics in Commodity Spot and Futures Markets," CREATES Research Papers 2014-22, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
- Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Moreno, Antonio, 2012.
"Uncovering the US term premium: An alternative route,"
Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1181-1193.
- Luis Gil-Alana & Antonio Moreno, 2007. "Uncovering the U.S. Term Premium: An Alternative Route," Faculty Working Papers 12/07, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
- Mirko Abbritti & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Yuliya Lovcha & Antonio Moreno, 2016.
"Term Structure Persistence,"
Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(2), pages 331-352.
- Mirko Abbritti & Luis Gil-Alana & Yuliya Lovcha & Antonio Moreno, 2012. "Term Structure Persistence," Faculty Working Papers 26/12, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
- Goodell, John W. & Vähämaa, Sami, 2013. "US presidential elections and implied volatility: The role of political uncertainty," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1108-1117.
- Luis A. Gil‐Alana & S. G. Brian Henry, 2003.
"Fractional Integration and the Dynamics of UK Unemployment,"
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(2), pages 221-239, May.
- Gil-Alaña, Luis A. & Henry, Brian, 2000. "Fractional integration and the dynamics of UK unemployment," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2000,14, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
- Luis A. Gil-Alana & S.G. Brian Henry, 2003. "Fractional Integration and the Dynamics of UK Unemployment," Faculty Working Papers 10/03, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
- Wang, Miao & Wong, M. C. Sunny, 2015. "Rational speculative bubbles in the US stock market and political cycles," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 1-9.
- Martins, Luis F. & Rodrigues, Paulo M.M., 2014.
"Testing for persistence change in fractionally integrated models: An application to world inflation rates,"
Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 502-522.
- Paulo M.M. Rodrigues & Luis F. Martins, 2010. "Testing for Persistence Change in Fractionally Integrated Models: An Application to World Inflation Rates," Working Papers w201030, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
- Baillie, Richard T., 1996. "Long memory processes and fractional integration in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 5-59, July.
- Patton, Andrew J., 2011.
"Volatility forecast comparison using imperfect volatility proxies,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 160(1), pages 246-256, January.
- Andrew Patton, 2006. "Volatility Forecast Comparison using Imperfect Volatility Proxies," Research Paper Series 175, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
- Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
- Niels Haldrup, 1998.
"An Econometric Analysis of I(2) Variables,"
Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 595-650, December.
- Haldrup, Neils, 1998. "An Econometric Analysis of I(2) Variables," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 595-650, December.
- Juselius, Katarina, 2006. "The Cointegrated VAR Model: Methodology and Applications," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199285679.
- Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Huijbens, Edward H., 2018. "Tourism in Iceland: Persistence and seasonality," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 20-29.
- Sowell, Fallaw, 1992. "Maximum likelihood estimation of stationary univariate fractionally integrated time series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 165-188.
- Ding, Zhuanxin & Granger, Clive W. J. & Engle, Robert F., 1993. "A long memory property of stock market returns and a new model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 83-106, June.
- Granger, C. W. J., 1980. "Long memory relationships and the aggregation of dynamic models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 227-238, October.
- Shen, Chung-Hua & Bui, Dien Giau & Lin, Chih-Yung, 2017. "Do political factors affect stock returns during presidential elections?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 180-198.
- Hassler, Uwe & Rodrigues, Paulo M.M. & Rubia, Antonio, 2014.
"Persistence in the banking industry: Fractional integration and breaks in memory,"
Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 95-112.
- Paulo M.M. Rodrigues & Uwe Hassler, 2014. "Persistence in the Banking Industry: Fractional integration and breaks in memory," Working Papers w201406, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
- Booth, James R. & Booth, Lena Chua, 2003. "Is presidential cycle in security returns merely a reflection of business conditions?," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 131-159.
- Granger, Clive W. J. & Ding, Zhuanxin, 1996. "Varieties of long memory models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 61-77, July.
- Granger, C. W. J., 1981. "Some properties of time series data and their use in econometric model specification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 121-130, May.
- Bohl, Martin T. & Gottschalk, Katrin, 2006. "International evidence on the Democrat premium and the presidential cycle effect," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 107-120, August.
- Carlos Colón-De-Armas & Javier Rodriguez & Herminio Romero, 2017. "Investor sentiment and US presidential elections," Review of Behavioral Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 9(3), pages 227-241, October.
- Ignacio N Lobato & Carlos Velasco, 2007.
"Efficient Wald Tests for Fractional Unit Roots,"
Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(2), pages 575-589, March.
- Lobato, Ignacio N., 2005. "Efficient wald tests for fractional unit roots," UC3M Working papers. Economics we056935, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de EconomÃa.
- Riley, William B. & Luksetich, William A., 1980. "The Market Prefers Republicans: Myth or Reality," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(3), pages 541-560, September.
- Jondeau, Eric, 2015. "The dynamics of squared returns under contemporaneous aggregation of GARCH models," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 80-93.
- Lobato, Ignacio N & Savin, N E, 1998. "Real and Spurious Long-Memory Properties of Stock-Market Data: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(3), pages 280-283, July.
- Pham, Huy Nguyen Anh & Ramiah, Vikash & Moosa, Nisreen & Huynh, Tam & Pham, Nhi, 2018. "The financial effects of Trumpism," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 264-274.
- Blair, Bevan J. & Poon, Ser-Huang & Taylor, Stephen J., 2001. "Forecasting S&P 100 volatility: the incremental information content of implied volatilities and high-frequency index returns," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 5-26, November.
- C. W. J. Granger & Roselyne Joyeux, 1980. "An Introduction To Long‐Memory Time Series Models And Fractional Differencing," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(1), pages 15-29, January.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
- Yaya, OlaOluwa S & Adekoya, Oluwasegun B. & Adesiyan, Femi, 2020. "The Persistence of Stock Market Returns during the Presidential elections in Nigeria," MPRA Paper 99390, University Library of Munich, Germany.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Luis A. Gil‐Alana & Robert Mudida & OlaOluwa S. Yaya & Kazeem A. Osuolale & Ahamuefula E. Ogbonna, 2021. "Mapping US presidential terms with S&P500 index: Time series analysis approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 1938-1954, April.
- Alia Afzal & Philipp Sibbertsen, 2021. "Modeling fractional cointegration between high and low stock prices in Asian countries," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(2), pages 661-682, February.
- Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Yaya, OlaOluwa S. & Akinsomi, Omokolade & Coskun, Yener, 2020. "How do stocks in BRICS co-move with real estate stocks?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 93-101.
- Aye, Goodness C. & Carcel, Hector & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Gupta, Rangan, 2017.
"Does gold act as a hedge against inflation in the UK? Evidence from a fractional cointegration approach over 1257 to 2016,"
Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 53-57.
- Goodness C. Aye & Hector Carcel & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Rangan Gupta, 2017. "Does Gold Act as a Hedge against Inflation in the UK? Evidence from a Fractional Cointegration Approach Over 1257 to 2016," Working Papers 201753, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2013.
"Long memory and fractional integration in high frequency data on the US dollar/British pound spot exchange rate,"
International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 1-9.
- Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2013. "Long Memory and Fractional Integration in High Frequency Data on the US Dollar / British Pound Spot Exchange Rate," CESifo Working Paper Series 4224, CESifo.
- Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2013. "Long Memory and Fractional Integration in High Frequency Data on the US Dollar / British Pound Spot Exchange Rate," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1294, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Luis A. Gil-Alana & Yun Cao, 2011. "Stock market prices in China. Efficiency, mean reversion, long memory volatility and other implicit dynamics," Faculty Working Papers 12/11, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
- Juan Carlos Cuestas & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Laura Sauci, 2020. "Public finances in the EU-27: Are they sustainable?," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 47(1), pages 181-204, February.
- Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Yaya, OlaOluwa S, 2018. "How do Stocks in BRICS co-move with REITs?," MPRA Paper 88753, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Shittu, Olanrewaju I. & Yaya, OlaOluwa S., 2014.
"On the persistence and volatility in European, American and Asian stocks bull and bear markets,"
Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 149-162.
- Luis Alberiko Gil-Alaña & Olanrewaju L. Shittu & OlaOluwa S. Yaya, 2013. "On the persistence and volatility in European, American and Asian stocks bull and bear markets," NCID Working Papers 12/2013, Navarra Center for International Development, University of Navarra.
- Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Gil-Alana, Luis & Plastun, Alex, 2018.
"Is market fear persistent? A long-memory analysis,"
Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 140-147.
- Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis Gil-Alana & Alex Plastun, 2017. "Is Market Fear Persistent? A Long-Memory Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 6534, CESifo.
- Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Alex Plastun, 2017. "Is Market Fear Persistent? A Long-Memory Analysis," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1670, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Elie Bouri & Luis A. Gil‐Alana & Rangan Gupta & David Roubaud, 2019.
"Modelling long memory volatility in the Bitcoin market: Evidence of persistence and structural breaks,"
International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(1), pages 412-426, January.
- Elie Bouri & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Rangan Gupta & David Roubaud, 2016. "Modelling Long Memory Volatility in the Bitcoin Market: Evidence of Persistence and Structural Breaks," Working Papers 201654, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Monge, Manuel & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Pérez de Gracia, Fernando, 2017. "Crude oil price behaviour before and after military conflicts and geopolitical events," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 79-91.
- Olushina O Awe & Robert Mudida & Luis A. Gil‐Alana, 2021. "Comparative analysis of economic growth in Nigeria and Kenya: A fractional integration approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 1197-1205, January.
- Pierre Perron & Zhongjun Qu, 2007. "An Analytical Evaluation of the Log-periodogram Estimate in the Presence of Level Shifts," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series wp2007-044, Boston University - Department of Economics.
- Luis Alberiko & OlaOluwa S. Yaya & Olarenwaju I. Shittu, 2015. "Fractional integration and asymmetric volatility in european, asian and american bull and bear markets. Applications to high frequency stock data," NCID Working Papers 07/2015, Navarra Center for International Development, University of Navarra.
- Bhandari, Avishek, 2020. "Long memory and fractality among global equity markets: A multivariate wavelet approach," MPRA Paper 99653, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Tripathy, Trilochan, 2020. "Volatility persistence in the Russian stock market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
- Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Miguel Martin-Valmayor, 2020. "Persistence in the Realized Betas: Some Evidence for the Spanish Stock Market," CESifo Working Paper Series 8171, CESifo.
- Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2011. "Long Memory and Fractional Integration in High-Frequency British Pound / Dollar Spot Exchange Rates," Faculty Working Papers 02/11, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
- Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Mudida, Robert & Zerbo, Eleazar, 2021. "GDP per capita IN SUB-SAHARAN Africa: A time series approach using long memory," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 175-190.
More about this item
Keywords
emocratic party; Fractional integration; Republican party; Stocks; US Presidential terms;All these keywords.
JEL classification:
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- H54 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Infrastructures
NEP fields
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:- NEP-POL-2019-05-27 (Positive Political Economics)
- NEP-RMG-2019-05-27 (Risk Management)
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:93941. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.